Oil prices rise for the third consecutive session. The RBA hints at a hawkish rate hike if inflation risks continue to grow

The US stock indices closed lower on Tuesday amid a large‑scale sell‑off in the semiconductor sector and persistently high bond yields. By the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.22%. The S&P500 Index (US500) declined by 0.69%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed Tuesday in the red at 1.33%. The heaviest losses were borne by companies involved in artificial intelligence and semiconductors: Nvidia shares fell by 2.3%, Broadcom declined by 3.2%, and Micron collapsed by 7%. AMD shares lost 4.3%, Intel plunged by 6.6%, and Sandisk dropped by 9%. Additional pressure on the market came from rising energy prices triggered by US statements about its intention to maintain a prolonged blockade of Iranian tanker exports.

European stock markets closed lower on Tuesday, following the negative dynamics of global exchanges amid continued growth in long‑term bond yields. By the end of the day, Germany’s DAX (DE40) fell by 0.80%, France’s CAC 40 (FR40) closed down 0.64%, Spain’s IBEX 35 (ES35) declined by 0.24%, while the UK’s FTSE 100 (UK100) ended the trading session slightly higher at 0.07%. Sovereign bond yields in key European countries rose sharply during the session, following the North American market. This occurred because the massive issuance of debt obligations by artificial intelligence technology giants came to the forefront, highlighting the problem of budget deficits both in the US and in the Eurozone, and intensifying concerns about possible tightening by central banks.

On Tuesday, oil prices WTI surpassed the 85‑dollar‑per‑barrel mark, showing growth for the third consecutive session. Prices were supported by weakening prospects for a new agreement between the US and Iran after President Donald Trump announced a lack of interest in extending the temporary peace deal. The memorandum of understanding officially expired on Monday and was signed in June, providing a 60‑day period for drafting a long‑term peace treaty. Against this backdrop, ongoing separate negotiations between Iran and Oman on regulating navigation through the Strait of Hormuz are taking place without US participation. Meanwhile, Washington has repeatedly made it clear that it will not support any agreements that do not guarantee absolutely free and unhindered passage through this strategically important maritime corridor.

The US natural gas (XNG) prices rose above 2.71 dollars per million British thermal units (MMBtu) amid outlooks of prolonged and intense heat in the southern and western regions of the country. Particularly extreme temperatures in Texas are leading to a sharp increase in air‑conditioning use, higher electricity demand, and additional strain on gas‑fired power plants and the entire regional energy grid.

In Asia, by the end of the day, Japan’s Nikkei 225 (JP225) fell by 2.54%, China’s FTSE China 50 closed higher by 0.16%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng (HK50) gained 0.07%, and Australia’s ASX 200 (AU200) closed Tuesday slightly lower at 0.04%.

The Australian dollar fell below the 0.71‑dollar mark, but remains near its ten‑week high. According to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the Wage Price Index rose by 0.8% in the June quarter, while the annual figure slowed to 3.2%. Wage growth in the private sector continues to gradually weaken. More moderate wage dynamics theoretically reduce pressure on the RBA regarding further aggressive monetary tightening. Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Andrew Hauser issued a stern warning that the regulator will be forced to raise interest rates again if pro‑inflationary risks continue to materialize.