Week's main events (October 09 – October 13)

This week, the main focus for traders will be the US inflation rate data. Economists are predicting a slight decline in inflation, which will allow investors to return to riskier assets on expectations that the Fed will be less aggressive in raising interest rates. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting on Wednesday should indicate how officials feel about the economy and the outlook for inflation. The UK is due to release monthly GDP and industrial production data. At the end of the week, the banking sector will open the US third-quarter reporting season. Also, this week, geopolitical risks will be in focus due to the war between Hamas and Israel. Rising geopolitical risk could lead to the buying of assets such as gold and the dollar and potentially affect oil prices.

Monday, October 09
On Monday, the US and Canadian Banks will be closed in observance of Columbus Day and Thanksgiving Day, respectively. There will also be a bank holiday in Japan. The volatility in the financial markets is likely to be quiet.
Main events of the day:
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, October 10
On Tuesday, the main news will be Norwegian inflation data, which will cause increased volatility on currency pairs with the Norwegian krone (NOK). In the second half of the day, the speeches of FOMC representatives will be of interest.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia NAB Business Confidence (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Norway Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 22:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, October 11
The most important Wednesday release for investors will be the FOMC Meeting Minutes, which will provide more information on policymakers' views on inflation and the outlook for the future trajectory of interest rates. Investors often study meeting minutes, looking for some sort of advantage or insight into future rate decisions. Powell has already signaled that another rate hike may be needed this year, so these minutes may be considered a bit more carefully. Also, on Wednesday, German inflation data will be released, where consumer prices are expected to decline.
Main events of the day:
  • – US FOMC Member Daly Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 11:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 19:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, October 12
On Thursday, investors should keep a close eye on the US consumer price index data. Another elevated inflation reading on Thursday will highlight the need for even more aggressiveness from the Fed, but analysts expect the annual core inflation rate to fall from 4.3% to 4.1%. Investors should also keep an eye on data from the energy sector. Because of the holidays, oil and natural gas inventories will be released on the same day. Traders should also analyze UK GDP data, which is on the verge of falling into recession. Last month, the Bank of England lowered its forecast for economic growth in the third quarter.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Producer Price Index (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Trade Balance (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Meeting Accounts at 14:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Bostic Speaks at 20:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, October 13
On Friday, traders will be closely watching the data on inflation in China. Last week was a holiday in China, so the consumer price data was postponed by a week. Inflation is expected to rise by 0.1% year-on-year. China's trade balance data will also be important. On Friday, investors should also pay attention to the speeches of central bank officials.
Main events of the day:
  • – Singapore GDP (q/q) at 03:00 (GMT+3);
  • – China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Sweden Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Harker Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.10.09

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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