Week's main events (September 25 – September 29)

This week will be less eventful than the previous week, but there are still a few important economic events that investors should pay attention to. The main event this week will be the publication of data on the PCE index, which is on the US Federal Reserve's list of monitored inflation indicators. With energy prices rising in recent months, inflationary pressures worldwide are starting to build again, just as central banks have done a lot of work and are at the end of their tightening cycle. Rising energy prices are not the Fed's only cause for concern, however. Exceptionally high consumption levels have incentivized policymakers to keep the door open for further rate hikes. Therefore, good orders and CB consumer confidence data will be important to analyze. A potentially big concern for investors is a possible government shutdown, as Congress has no time to agree on a spending cut bill before midnight on September 30. In the Eurozone, inflation data will help determine whether rates will remain unchanged or rise further. Also, Australian inflation data for August may prompt the RBA to hike rates again if the core rate rises as forecast.

Monday, September 25
On Monday, investors should focus on Singapore's inflation data, as well as Germany's business climate indicators from the IFO Institute.
Main events of the day:
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German IFO Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, September 26
On Tuesday, traders should analyze the US consumer confidence data. The growth of indicators is a strong signal for the dollar because as long as the consumer confidence index does not fall, the economy feels good. Also, investors should not miss the speeches of the US Federal Reserve, which will give an idea of the mood inside the central bank.
Main events of the day:
  • – US FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
Wednesday, September 27
On Wednesday, investors' focus should be on Australian inflation data. The annual inflation rate is expected to rise from 4.9% to 5.2%. If the figure rises in line with the forecast, it may support the Aussie dollar, which remains one of the worst-performing currencies of the year due to the RBA's neutrality in recent meetings. Also, on Wednesday, it will be interesting to analyze the minutes of the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German GfK Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).
Thursday, September 28
On Thursday, investors should pay attention to US GDP data for the quarter. Analysts expect the US economy to rise from 2% to 2.2%. In Europe, Germany will update the inflation data, so traders should be ready. Inflation is expected to fall sharply, which may put additional pressure on the euro. It is also worth paying attention to the speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Chair Powell Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).
Friday, September 29
Friday will be very rich in economic events. The leading data investors should focus on is the consumer price index in the Eurozone. Volatility on currency pairs with the euro will increase. Also, traders should keep a close eye on the PCE Price Index, a more meaningful indicator of inflation for the US Federal Reserve than CPI. Since the increase in energy prices over the last month will not be included in this report, the PCE index is expected to decline, which may put pressure on the US dollar. Also, during the day, important GDP data for Canada and the UK will be released. It's a bank holiday in China
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – China Caixin Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – UK GDP (q/q) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland KOF Leading Indicators (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 10:40 (GMT+3);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.09.25

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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