Week's main events (July 24 – July 28)

The main focus of investors this week will be on the meetings of the central banks of the United States, the Eurozone, and Japan. Both the Fed and the ECB are expected to raise rates by 0.25%, while Japan is not expected to make any changes. However, it should be united that there is still a slight possibility of yield curve control adjustments. Also worth watching this week is the PCE Price Index, which is the US Fed's preferred inflation indicator. And let's not forget the second quarter reporting season in the United States. Tech giants will be reporting this week.

Monday, July 24
Monday will see the release of a slew of data on business activity in the manufacturing and service sectors. These data help to assess economic health. Values above 50 indicate industry growth, while values below 50 indicate contraction.
Main events of the day:
  • – New Zealand Trade Balance (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Services PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Singapore Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 08:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Germany Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

  • Tuesday, July 25
    On Tuesday, traders should pay attention to the US CB Consumer Confidence. The index is expected to rise, indicating that US consumers are feeling good in a period of high-interest rates, which will increase the likelihood of another rate hike after the July meeting of the US Federal Reserve.
    Main events of the day:
    • – German Ifo Business Climate (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US CB Consumer Confidence (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
    Wednesday, July 26
    On Wednesday, investors will focus on the Fed Interest Rate Decision. With the Fed almost certain to raise interest rates again, investors will be focused on whether this could be the last increase in its tightening cycle. The hawkishness of the politicians at the press conference will increase the likelihood of another rate hike. Traders should also not miss the inflation data from Australia, where consumer prices are expected to decline.
    Main events of the day:
    • – Australia Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US New Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).
    Thursday, July 27
    On Thursday, investors should pay attention to the ECB Interest Rate Decision. The ECB is expected to raise rates by another 25 basis points, so all eyes are on the Central Bank's plans for September, and markets are divided on whether there will be another hike or a pause. Traders should also pay attention to the US GDP data for the quarter. GDP growth will be positive for the US dollar and negative for US stock indices.
    Main events of the day:
    • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
    • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
    • – US Core Durable Goods Orders (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
    • – US Pending Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
    Friday, July 28
    Friday will be very rich in economic events. The main data investors should focus on the Bank of Japan's monetary policy decision. There is little time left for the Bank of Japan to change policy significantly, so there is a possibility that the BoJ may remove controls on the YCC yield curve. This would be a step towards policy normalization and would significantly strengthen the JPY. Also, traders should keep a close eye on the PCE Price Index, which is a more important indicator of inflation for the US Federal Reserve than CPI.
    Main events of the day:
    • – Japan Tokyo Core CPI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+3);
    • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
    • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 06:00 (GMT+3);
    • – Japan BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
    • – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 09:00 (GMT+3);
    • – Canada GDP (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US PCE Price index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

    by JustMarkets, 2023.07.24

    We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

    This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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