Week's main events (July 03 – July 07)

This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week's main event, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Continued strength in the labor market could strengthen the US Federal Reserve's stance on further rate hikes. The FOMC protocol on Wednesday will give investors some insight into how FED policymakers see the future trajectory of interest rates as markets remain focused on the prospect of a recession. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold an interest rate meeting. Analysts expect the RBA to leave the rate unchanged because the latest inflation data showed a decline.

Monday, July 03
At the European session, it is worth paying attention to the inflation rate in Switzerland. Analysts expect the core rate to fall below 2% to 1.8% in June. Currently, markets are still estimating a 25 basis point rate hike from SNB in September, but that could change if the data matches expectations. Also, traders should not miss important manufacturing PMI data in main economies. It's a bank holiday in Canada.
Main events of the day:
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

  • Tuesday, July 04
    Tuesday is Independence Day in the United States, a bank holiday, so volatility in the financial markets in the US trading session will be low. The main event for investors will be the Interest Rate Decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analytics expects the RBA to leave the rate unchanged. But volatility in currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase.
    Main events of the day:
    • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision at 07:30 (GMT+3);
    • – Australia RBA Rate Statement at 07:30 (GMT+3);
    • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3).
    Wednesday, July 05
    On Wednesday, investors will focus on the US FOMC Meeting Minutes. This report is published for the previous month and allows traders to analyze the actions of Fed policymakers regarding further interest rate increases, as well as to understand the mood that is present inside. Volatility in currency pairs with the US dollar will increase. European countries will report on the Service's PMI. Investors should also pay attention to the OPEC+ meeting. No surprises with production quotas are expected, but any talk of reducing production in the future may spur oil prices to rise.
    Main events of the day:
    • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
    • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
    • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
    • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
    • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
    • – OPEC Meetings at 13:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 21:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+3).
    Thursday, July 06
    On Thursday, traders should pay attention to the trade balance data from the United States, Canada, and Australia. Higher exports lead to increased demand for the national currency, contributing to its strength. Also worth keeping an eye on is the oil inventory data, which has a significant impact on WTI and Brent pricing.
    Main events of the day:
    • – Australia Trade Balance (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
    • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
    • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
    • – Canada Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US Trade Balance (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
    • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
    • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 18:00 (GMT+3).
    Friday, July 07
    The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. This data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and the Fed takes this indicator into account to adjust monetary policy. Economists expect to add 222,000 jobs in June, down from 339,000 the previous month, but still strong. The unemployment rate is expected at 3.6%. Traders should also keep a close eye on the Unemployment Rate in Canada. This data could be crucial in helping BOC policymakers make up their minds before the July 12 decision.
    Main events of the day:
    • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 08:45 (GMT+3);
    • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
    • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 10:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
    • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
    • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 19:45 (GMT+3).

    by JustMarkets, 2023.07.03

    We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

    This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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