Week's main events (February 28 – March 4)

It will be a very volatile week due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus also became an accomplice to the conflict, having provided its territory for the attack of the Russian army and launched cruise missiles from its territory at Ukrainian cities yesterday. The sanctions imposed against Russia are very serious, and the consequences of such sanctions for ordinary Russian citizens will be serious. If not take into account geopolitics, this week's main events for investors will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls and Interest Rate Decisions from the Central Banks of Canada and Australia. The Bank of Canada will likely raise its interest rate, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave it unchanged. Investors should also keep an eye on the OPEC+ meeting. Given the high geopolitical risks, unexpected decisions are possible. Special attention should be paid to the speech of Fed chief Jerome Powell before the US Congress, as well as the speech of ECB chief Christine Lagarde. Given Russia's attack on Ukraine, it is important to understand how the US and Europe Central Banks will adjust monetary policy.

Monday, February 28
On Monday, traders will mainly focus on the speech from the Eurozone ECB President. There is now a lot of uncertainty about how the ECB will react to Russia's war with Ukraine, so traders should keep a close eye for clues from Christine Lagarde.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Retail Sales (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Chicago PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 17:50 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, March 1
Tuesday will bring various statistics for many countries. The main event will be the decision of the Central Bank of Australia on the interest rate. Surprises are not expected, but the volatility on currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the Manufacturing PMI data from European countries.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 05:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 05:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+2);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada GDP (q/q) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, March 2
The Eurozone inflation data will be the most important event on Wednesday. Analysts expect to see inflation rise by 0.3%. The US Crude Oil Reserves data and OPEC+, which greatly impact oil prices, should also be in focus. WTI and BRENT price volatility could rise sharply. Investors should also keep a close eye on the Bank of Canada's interest rate decisions. Volatility in currency pairs with the Canadian dollar will increase as the central bank of Canada plans to raise its interest rate by 0.25%. Investors should also listen carefully to Jerome Powell's speech to the US Congress.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia GDP (q/q) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – OPEC+ Meeting at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bullard’s Speech at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada BoC Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada BoC Rate Statement (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Thursday, March 3
Traders will mainly focus on the Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Jerome Powell's speech to the US Congress on Thursday. The ECB did not plan to change its monetary policy until the end of the year. Rising inflation in the region and increased geopolitical risks are likely to keep the ECB's stimulus policy unchanged. But volatility on currency pairs with the euro may increase. Traders should also keep a close eye on Switzerland's inflation data, where inflation is expected to pick up.
Main events of the day:
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:45 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Chair Jerome Powell Testifies at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada BoC Maclem speaks at 18:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, March 4
Friday’s most important release is the US Nonfarm Payrolls report. This data may provoke increased volatility in the market, and this indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Indications of continued strength in the labor market could raise bets on how aggressive the Fed can be in tightening monetary policy in the fight to combat high inflation.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2022.02.28

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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