Piyasaya Genel Bakış

Salesforce (CRM) shares fell more than 7%. They topped the list of losers in the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrials following a Bloomberg report that the company is interested in acquiring Informatica, which analysts say could attract regulatory attention. Atlassian (TEAM) slid more than 7% and topped the list of losers in the Nasdaq 100 after Mizuho Securities cut its price target on the company's shares to $240 from $265. Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than 5%, topping the Nasdaq 100 losers list, after CEO Musk said the company will cut its global workforce by more than 10% as demand for electric vehicles slows.

Following last week's alleged Israeli strike on senior Iranian military commanders in a Syrian compound, market participants were spooked as a flurry of reports emerged towards the end of the week that a potential Iranian retaliatory strike on Israel could be "imminent". These Friday headlines quickly brought geopolitical concerns to the forefront and sparked a bout of risk aversion before the weekend. The Iranian attack did occur on Saturday in the form of drones and rockets launched toward Israel. Israel was able to repel the attack and did not announce an immediate intention to retaliate, while the US has said it wants to avoid a wider war in the Middle East.

Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East as well as key inflation data will be in focus this week

The US Producer Price Index (displays the inflation rate between factories) for March rose by 0.2% m/m and 2.1% y/y in the US, slightly weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 2.2% y/y. However, the core PPI (excluding food and energy) accelerated to 2.4% y/y from 2.0% y/y in February, slightly stronger than expectations of 2.3% y/y and the largest increase in 7 months. US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 11,000 to a 5-week low of 211,000, indicating a strengthening labor market versus expectations of 215,000. New York Fed President Williams said the Fed has made tremendous progress in balancing inflation and employment, but there is no need to lower interest rates soon. FRB Richmond President Barkin said the Fed still has some work to do to contain price pressures and could take its time in lowering interest rates. FRB Boston President Collins added that recent data has eased concerns about adjusting interest rates, although she still expects rate cuts to begin later this year.

Minutes from the March FOMC meeting showed that the Federal Reserve does not believe it is appropriate to lower the target range until there is confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%. The central bank still closely monitors inflation risks but expects to see some unevenness in monthly inflation readings as inflation returns to target. The so-called dot plot showed policymakers still plan to cut interest rates three times this year, matching quarterly forecasts made in December.

Today, the US will release its monthly consumer inflation report. This report will affect the likelihood of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve in June. Economists expect core inflation, which excludes food and fuel costs, to slow to 3.7% year-over-year from 3.8% in the previous month. However, overall inflation may rise to 3.2% y/y from 3.4% y/y. If the data comes out in line with forecasts, it would mean a mixed report for the US Fed. A decline in the core indicator (excluding food and energy prices) would indicate a continuation of the overall disinflation trend, while a rise in the overall indicator would likely reflect higher oil prices over the past month. Any surprise in the form of continued inflationary pressures will support the US dollar, especially as FOMC policymakers again discussed the possibility of holding rates longer on the back of strong economic data. While economists had previously planned for 3 rate cuts by the US Fed this year, they are now planning for 1-2 total cuts. This will be a green light for the dollar, putting pressure on risk assets, indices, and partly gold. However, gold could rise even as the dollar rises, which is rare. If the data comes out below expectations (inflation will fall more than the market expects), it will increase the probability of a rate cut in June, which will put pressure on the US dollar and lead to the growth of risk assets (euro, pound, franc), as well as support stock indices.

WTI crude futures rose to $86/bbl on Tuesday after falling to $84.3/bbl in the previous session as the latest ceasefire talks between Israel and Hamas in Egypt failed to progress. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Monday that Israel would continue the plans. A senior Hamas official also said they had rejected Israel's latest ceasefire offer made at the talks in Cairo. Risks of further supply disruptions continued to drive oil prices higher as Iran vowed to retaliate against an alleged Israeli attack that killed Iranian generals in Syria.

Fed spokeswoman Bowman said she still sees several upside risks to inflation and "it is not yet time" to cut interest rates. She added that it is possible that the federal funds rate level consistent with low and stable inflation "will be higher than it was before the pandemic, and if so, fewer rate cuts will eventually be needed to return our monetary policy stance to neutral." Dallas Fed President Logan said on Friday that it was "too early" to cut interest rates because there are concerns that inflationary progress could stall and that price growth may not cool down to the Fed's 2 percent target in a "timely manner." The Fed's hawkish comments on Friday drove bond yields higher and suggested that the Fed will not be cutting interest rates anytime soon. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 6% for the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 58% for the next meeting on June 12.

The focus of attention this week is on US inflation data, FOMC protocol as well as the ECB, RBNZ and BoC meetings

The US trade deficit, a key indicator of the country's economic health, widened to $68.9 billion in February 2024, the highest in ten months. This was up from an upwardly revised $67.6 billion in January, surpassing forecasts of a $67.3 billion deficit. The data reflected a $0.3 billion decline in the goods deficit to $91.4 billion and a $1.6 billion surplus in services to $22.5 billion. Notably, exports rose by 2.3% to a record high of $263 billion, while imports rose 2.2% to $331.9 billion. This data has implications for the dollar index, suggesting a positive trend.

Ford Motor (F) shares closed higher by more than 2% after the company reported a 7% increase in US auto sales in the first quarter due to strong demand for gas-electric hybrid vehicles. Intel (INTC) is down more than 8% and topped the list of losers on the Dow Jones (US30) and NASDAQ (US100) markets after the company said losses in its fab business have gotten worse, and the division may not reach its break-even point for several years.

San Francisco Fed President Daley said yesterday that three 25 bps rate cuts in 2024 are a "reasonable baseline projection". However, there is no need to cut rates now, given the economy's strength. She added that if inflation is more resilient, the Fed could cut rates less, and if inflation falls faster, a rate cut may be warranted.

US natural gas prices rose more than 4% on Monday to above $1.8/mmbtu amid continued production declines and forecasts that demand next week will be higher than previously expected. Gas production declined to an average of 100.8 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in March, down from 104.8 bcfd in February, as several energy companies, including EQT and Chesapeake Energy, postponed well completions and curtailed other drilling activity.

The dollar index settled at 104.5 in post-holiday trading on Monday. Investors are digesting the latest PCE Price Index report, searching for clues about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Data released on Friday showed that the Fed's recommended inflation rate rose by 0.3% month-on-month in February, slowing from an upwardly revised 0.4% increase in January, which was also in line with the consensus predicted. The report also showed that consumer spending last month rose by the most in a year, indicating the economy is resilient. Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated on Friday that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates and that the latest PCE inflation data aligns with what the Fed wants. Markets now believe there is a nearly 70% chance that the Fed will start cutting rates in June, with a total rate cut of 75 basis points this year.

This week's main events are the US nonfarm payrolls report and the OPEC meeting

US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 2,000 to 210,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 212,000. US GDP for Q4 was revised upward to 3.4% (QoQ), which is stronger than expectations of 3.2%, and Personal Consumption for Q4 was revised upward to 3.3%, which is stronger than expectations of 3.0%. US home sales for February rose by 1.6 % mom, slightly stronger than expectations of 1.5% mom. The March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index was revised upward to a 2-year high of 79.4, stronger than expectations of 76.5.

Merck's (MRK) stock price rose more than 4% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials Index after its pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Winrevair received approval from the US Food and Drug Administration. Netflix (NFLX) shares closed down more than 2% after Wedbush removed it from its list of best ideas, saying the company will have a "much harder time" impressing investors this year compared to last. According to SEC filings, Salesforce (CRM) closed down more than 1% and topped the Dow Jones Industrials losers list on signs of insider selling after CEO Benioff sold $4.59 million worth of shares on Monday.

On Tuesday, stock indices gave up early gains and suffered moderate losses. Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 2%, causing chip maker stocks to fall, which impacted the overall market. Eight of the eleven sectors ended trading lower. The US economic news on Tuesday was mixed for stocks, with new capital goods orders rising more than expected in February, but the US consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined.

Take-Two Interactive Software closed down more than 6% after gaming publication Kotaku reported that Grand Theft Auto VI production has begun to be delayed, and the game may not be released in 2025. Shares of United Airlines Holdings (UAL) fell more than 3% after a report that the US Federal Aviation Administration is considering imposing temporary sanctions on the company, including a ban on adding new routes, following a series of safety incidents. In addition, Intel (INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares fell after the Financial Times reported that China is seeking to restrict US-made microprocessors and servers in government computers.

Lululemon Athletica shares closed down more than 15% on Friday after warning of a slowdown in US store visits and forecasting 2025 net revenue below consensus. Nike (NKE) also closed down more than 6% after warning of low single-digit sales declines in the first half of the fiscal year. Additionally, Tesla's shares (TSLA) fell more than 1% after Bloomberg reported that the company cut vehicle production at a plant in China. FedEx (FDX) shares are up more than 7% after the company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share above consensus and announced a $5 billion share repurchase plan. Additionally, shares of Nvidia (NVSA) are up more than 3% after UBS raised its price target on the company's stock to $1,100 from $800.

The main events this week will be inflation data and GDP from the main economies

US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly fell from 2,000 to 210,000, indicating a strengthening labor market compared to expectations of a rise to 213,000. S&P Manufacturing PMI for March rose by 0.3 to a 2-year high of 52.5, stronger than expectations for a decline to 51.8. US home sales for February unexpectedly rose 9.5% to 4.38 million, stronger than expected for a decrease to 3.95 million.

The FOMC left the federal funds rate unchanged at a 23-year high of 5.5% for the fifth consecutive meeting in March 2024, matching market expectations. Policymakers added that they did not believe it would be appropriate to reduce the target range until there is confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%. The median expectations of FOMC members suggest 75 basis points of rate cuts this year. The dot plot also points to three rate cuts in 2025, one fewer than in December, despite a slight upward revision to PCE inflation. However, the sharp upward revision to US GDP forecasts continued to support US equities, reflecting this year's rally away from the Fed's restrictive policies. The FOMC also said it will continue to shrink its monthly balance sheet by $95 billion. Fed Chair Powell said it is appropriate to begin easing "at some point this year" and that recent inflation data indicate the Fed was correct to wait before cutting interest rates.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold its Wednesday monetary policy meeting today. The Fed had initially planned to begin cutting rates in March. However, stronger than expected US inflation data (primarily producer inflation - PPI) raised concerns that the central bank may delay an interest rate cut further. As a result, the likelihood of a rate cut was pushed back first to May and then to June. Markets currently estimate the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the March FOMC meeting at 1%, at the next meeting on May 1 at 9%, and at the June 12 meeting at 59%. The rate is expected to remain at 5.5% at the current meeting, but investors' main focus will be the press conference. Investors will be paying attention to any clues about the prospects for a central bank rate cut, the strength of the US economy, and the possibility of an inflationary rebound. If Jerome Powell begins to back away from a rate cut this summer, it could put further pressure on the indices.

Canada's inflation report will be released today. No changes in the figures are expected, so the Canadian dollar will likely be affected by volatility. However, any deviations from the consensus forecast could trigger a strong rally. Remember that when inflation rises, the domestic currency tends to strengthen on expectations of a more hawkish central bank stance.

Friday saw a huge quarterly derivatives expiration in the US market, accounting for $5.1 trillion in index and equity options. Since the consensus has been bullish in equities recently, market makers now have huge hedging long positions open in equities and indices. Once the derivatives expire, market makers will get rid of this hedge and thus put pressure on the stock market. Statistically, corrections in bull markets have often occurred in periods of quarterly expirations. Perhaps now it will help the indices to let off a little steam.

The main focus this week is on the central bank meetings of the major economies

The US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 1,000 to 209,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 218,000. Thursday's US retail sales report for February 0.6% m/m was weaker than market expectations of 0.8%, while the January figure was revised downward to 1.1% m/m from 0.8%. The February PPI reading of 1.6% y/y was stronger than market expectations of 1.2% and exceeded the revised January reading of 1.0% y/y (preliminary 0.9%). However, February core PPI fell to a 2-year low of 3.8% y/y. Either way, February's core CPI and PPI remain above the Fed's 2% inflation target.

Fed Chairman Powell said last week that the Fed is "not far" from being confident enough to cut interest rates. However, markets rate the Fed's probability of cutting interest rates at its meeting next week as near zero, as inflation is still too far above target. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at next week's March 20 FOMC meeting at 1%, the May 1 meeting at 13%, and the June 12 meeting at 73%.

The market focus will shift to the Fed meeting next week on March 20. If the market does not hear any negative signals from Mr. Powell, the best strategy for the coming months will be to follow the bullish trend and buy risky assets. Currently, markets are pricing the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 1% for next week's FOMC meeting on March 20, 15% for the next meeting on May 1, and 78% for the subsequent meeting on June 12.

Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are down 1.98% on Monday, adding to last Friday's 5.47% selloff. Nvidia shares suffered profit-taking last Friday after initially hitting a record high and rising more than 17% over the previous six sessions. Boeing (BA) is down 3.0% after news that the US Department of Justice has opened a criminal investigation into the recent airborne door explosion on an Alaskan Airlines flight. Moderna (MRNA) was Monday's best-performing stock of the NASDAQ benchmark (US100), adding 8.69%. The biotech company rose following news that it is partnering with Merck to begin a mid-stage study to test its experimental cancer vaccine on patients with skin cancer.

Although the US economy added 275K jobs, unemployment jumped to 3.9%, and wage growth slowed. The data indicates that the labor market has begun to cool down. Investors' first reaction to the report was a rise in risk assets and a fall in the dollar. Market expectations for the first rate cut in June were confirmed and strengthened. But since this is not a new scenario and such a consensus has been priced in over the past month, the positivity was not enough for long, and investors sold off all the growth by the end of Friday. Current market conditions suggest index weakness will continue this week as investors take profits after the recent market rally. That said, this week promises to be even more volatile with the release of inflation data on Tuesday, March 12, and the quarterly derivatives expiration on Friday. Usually, these periods are when new trends are born, or old trends are reversed.

Investors focus this week is on inflation data in the United States as well as labor market data in the United Kingdom

At Thursday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up 0.34%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.03%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.51%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) indices rose to new record highs. Stocks rose Thursday on speculation that the Fed and ECB will begin cutting interest rates as early as June.

Fed Chairman Powell said in front of Congress that it would likely be appropriate to begin reducing borrowing costs at some point this year. Still, the committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until it has more confidence that inflation is moving steadily toward 2%.

As of Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative at 1.65%. All 3 indices fell off the lows of the week. Weakness in technology stocks impacted the overall market as negative corporate news hamstrung technology stocks. Apple (AAPL) fell more than 2% after Counterpoint Research data showed that iPhone sales in China fell by 24% in the first six weeks of this year. Tesla (TSLA) closed down more than 4%, adding to Monday's 7% loss after car shipments in China fell. In addition, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) quotes fell more than 1% after the US government blocked a plan to sell artificial intelligence chips to China.

At Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.25%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.41%. Stocks are seeing coverage of previously open positions. Markets await Fed Chairman Powell's semi-annual testimony before a House committee on Wednesday and a Senate committee on Thursday for clues on future Fed policy. Powell is expected to maintain his hawkish stance and clarify that the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates. In addition, Friday will see the release of the monthly US payrolls report, which will provide insight into whether the labor market remains strong and whether wage pressures are contained.

At Friday's close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.23% (-0.10% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.80% (+0.87% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positively at 1.14% (+1.63% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) indices closed at record highs, with the gains marking the second consecutive record close for the Nasdaq. On Friday, weaker-than-expected economic news from the US on the February ISM manufacturing index and the February University of Michigan consumer sentiment index lowered bond yields and sparked gains in technology stocks.

This week, the focus is on meetings of the central banks of Canada and the Eurozone, as well as data on US nonfarm payrolls

The US core PCE deflator for January declined to 2.8% y/y from 2.9% y/y in December, which matched expectations and was the slowest rate of increase in 2 years. US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 13,000 to 215,000, indicating a weak labor market vs. expectations of 210,000. US personal spending in January rose by 0.2% m/m, matching expectations. Personal income for January increased by 1.0% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.4% mom and the largest increase in a year. Chicago PMI for February unexpectedly declined 2.0 to 44.0, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to 48.0 and the sharpest rate of contraction in 7 months. January US home sales unexpectedly fell by 4.9% m/m, which was weaker than expectations for a 1.5% m/m increase and was the steepest decline in the last 5 months.

The US stock indices posted moderate losses on Wednesday. Pressure to liquidate long positions from recent record highs weighed on the stock market ahead of Thursday's PCE deflator report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.06% at the stock market close yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.17%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed the day negative 0.55%. On Wednesday, the hawkish comments from Fed members Williams, Bostic, and Collins also hamstrung the indices when they said they favored a wait-and-see stance before cutting interest rates. Markets now expect the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged in March and May, but there is more than a 50% chance of a rate cut in June.

On Tuesday, hawkish comments from Fed Representative Bowman and Kansas City Fed President Schmid pushed T-note bond yields up and supported the dollar. However, the dollar's gains were weakened after the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index for February unexpectedly declined. It is now essential to watch the probabilities of rate cuts from the US Fed and ECB at the April meeting. Currently, the chance of a 25 bps rate cut in April from the US Fed is 19%, while for the ECB, the probability is 29%. And since the ECB tends to follow the US Fed, the dollar index may gain a temporary advantage over the euro.

Speaking at the European Parliament, ECB President Christine Lagarde said that the current disinflation process should continue at a pace that could lead to the first rate cut by June, although some favor an earlier approach. Money markets have also reassessed their expectations for the first rate cut by the US Fed from May to June. With the ECB generally following the US Fed's lead, investors should not expect the first rate cut from the ECB until summer.

At Friday's close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.16% (for the week 0.98%). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was up 0.04% (up 1.15% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.28% (for the week 0.54%). All 3 indices set new all-time highs on Friday. However, after this week's sharp rally in technology stocks, there was profit-taking in technology stocks, which led to the NASDAQ (US100) Index being in negative territory.

The focus this week is on the RBNZ meeting, inflation data, and PMI statistics

Hawkish comments from policymakers failed to stop the indices from rising yesterday. Fed spokesman Christopher Waller said Thursday that the Fed should hold off on cutting rates for at least a couple more months to ensure the January inflation report was a fluke and that the Fed is still moving toward its inflation target. He added that acting too soon could squander the central bank's gains in fighting inflation and cause significant damage to the economy. Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson agreed. He said that the Fed should be on guard against cutting interest rates too much in response to falling inflation because "excessive easing could cause progress in restoring price stability to stall or backslide. In addition, Philadelphia Fed President Harker cautioned against expecting interest rate cuts "right now and immediately" and said the biggest risk is cutting rates too quickly. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 6% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 29% for the April 30-May 1 meeting.

Minutes from the January 30-31 FOMC meeting proved hawkish, as it said most participants noted the risks of easing policy too quickly and stressed the importance of carefully evaluating incoming data to judge whether inflation is steadily easing to 2%. Fed spokeswoman Bowman said yesterday that given the current economic environment, the time for the Fed to cut interest rates is definitely not now.

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell more than 3% after Phillip Securities downgraded the stock to "neutral." Airbnb (ABNB) is down more than 3% after Phillip Securities downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "buy". Caterpillar (CAT) is down 1% after Evercore ISI downgraded the stock to "neutral" from "buy". Walmart (WMT) is up over 4%, leading the Dow Jones Industrials, after the company reported Q4 comparable sales rose by 3.9%, which was stronger than the consensus forecast of 3.2%.

Silver (XAGUSD) prices are trading around $23 an ounce, moving away from the seven-week high of $23.4 an ounce reached on February 16, as traders continue adjusting their bets on a Fed rate cut. Upcoming FOMC meeting minutes and statements from Fed officials will provide more clues as to when the first rate cut may occur. Originally expected to be cut in March, there is now a 53% chance of a 25 bps rate cut in June. Silver prices are expected to rise this year thanks to a weaker dollar and lower Treasury bond yields as the Fed moves to looser monetary policy.

At Friday's close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.37% (0.07% for the week). The S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.48% (0.42% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.82% (1.28% for the week). Stocks in the US ended Friday's trading lower amid concerns over strong PPI data, which added to fears that the Fed would not start cutting interest rates sooner than expected. In addition, Friday's US housing news was weaker than expected after January housing starts and January building permits unexpectedly declined. As a result, the real estate, technology, and consumer staples sectors were the worst performers, while the energy sector remained on the plus side.

This week, investors' attention will be focused on the FOMC meeting minutes

Thursday's US economic reports were bearish for the dollar. On the bearish side, retail sales for January fell 0.8% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of 0.2% m/m and was the biggest decline in 10 months. In addition, manufacturing output for January unexpectedly declined by 0.5% m/m, weaker than expectations of no change. On the bullish side, weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 8,000 to 212,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 220,000.

Chicago Fed Chairman Goolsbee stated yesterday that even if inflation is slightly higher for a few months, it would still be consistent with a path back to target. He added that the Fed's current policy is pretty restrictive and said that he doesn't support the idea of waiting until inflation hits 2% in 12 months to start cutting interest rates. That raised the odds that the Fed could begin cutting rates this spring. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 14% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 46% for the April 30-May 1 meeting.

US stocks fell sharply on Tuesday after releasing a sharper-than-expected inflation report. At Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 1.35%. The S&P 500 index (US500) was down 1.37%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative at 1.80%. In the United States, the annual inflation rate eased to 3.1%, beating expectations of 2.9%, while core inflation came in at 3.9% compared to the forecast of 3.7%. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% from the previous month, and core inflation rose by 0.4%, exceeding expectations. The strong inflation report forced investors to revise their expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in March and May. All key sectors were down, with real estate and technology leading the way as shares of major technology companies such as Microsoft (2.1%), Amazon (2.1%), and Alphabet (1.6%) fell.

Today, the US will release its consumer inflation (CPI) report. On an annualized basis, overall inflation is expected to fall from 3.4% to 3.1%. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) is forecast to fall from 3.9% to 3.7% y/y. If progress with inflation continues, this will put pressure on the dollar index but will also have a favorable impact on stock indices and the precious metals market (gold and silver). Suppose progress in the fight against inflation stalls or develops less favorably than expected. In that case, the US Treasury yields will likely jump as traders abandon bets on the sharp rate cuts scheduled for this year and push back the expected start date of the Fed's easing cycle. Such an outcome would have to be favorable for the US dollar soon and hurt risk assets (euro, British pound, stock indices, and gold).

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics left the core US Consumer Price Index for Q4 unchanged at an annualized rate of 3.3%. Fed comments on Friday were a bit hawkish and supported the dollar at the end of the trading day. Dallas Fed President Logan said she sees no need for additional interest rate adjustments at this time and is confident that the progress being made in inflation will be sustainable over the medium term. Atlanta FRB President Bostic also said that the Fed must "stay the course" to ensure inflation returns to the 2% target. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 19% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 73% for the next meeting on April 30-May 1.

This week's focus is on inflation data in the United States, United Kingdom, and Switzerland

On the positive side, Walt Disney (DIS) shares rose more than 11% after the company reported first-quarter adjusted earnings per share that beat expectations and projected full-year adjusted earnings per share above consensus. Additionally, Ralph Lauren (RL) is up more than 16% after reporting total comparable sales for Q3, excluding forex, well above consensus. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) closed up more than 6% after reporting Q4 operating revenue of $1.84 billion, exceeding the consensus forecast of $1.74 billion. On the negative side, PayPal Holdings closed down more than 11% after reporting a lower-than-expected number of active customer accounts in Q4 and forecasting full-year adjusted EPS below consensus.

Yesterday, we also saw several speeches by FOMC officials. FRB Richmond President Barkin said he supports the Fed's patient stance in determining when to start easing monetary policy. FRB Boston President Collins said she needs further evidence that inflation is steadily toward the Fed's 2% target before cutting interest rates. FRB Minneapolis President Kashkari said it would take time to evaluate the data before cutting interest rates, and he sees two or three 25 bps rate cuts this year as appropriate. But the likelihood of a rate cut at the April meeting was little affected. Currently, markets are pricing in a 21% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and an 82% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the April 30-May 1 meeting.

On Tuesday, Federal Reserve President Cleveland Mester made somewhat hawkish comments and supported the dollar, saying she was in no rush to cut interest rates and that policymakers would likely gain confidence to cut rates "later this year" if the economy performs as expected. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 23% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 82% for the April 30-May meeting.

Economic news out of the US on Monday was hawkish for Fed policy and bullish for the dollar. The January ISM services index rose by 2.9 to a 4-month high of 53.4, exceeding expectations of 52.0. In addition, the January ISM services price sub-index unexpectedly rose by 7.3 to an 11-month high of 64.0, stronger than expectations of a decline to 56.7. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee said yesterday that he needs to see more data showing inflation progress before the Fed starts cutting interest rates.

Friday's economic news from the US was better than expected and favorable for the dollar. Non-farm payrolls for January rose by 353,000, which exceeded expectations of 185,000 and was the largest increase in a year. The unemployment rate for January was unchanged at 3.7%, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of an increase to 3.8%. In addition, average hourly earnings for January rose 0.6% m/m and 4.5% y/y, which was stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 4.1% y/y. Finally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for January was revised upward by 0.2 to a 2-year high of 79.0, exceeding expectations of 78.9.

This week, investors will focus on the RBA meeting and speeches by central bank officials

Shares of large technology companies are the most influential on Wall Street because they are the largest and have high expectations after soaring much more than the rest of the market last year. Meta (META) shares jumped by 15% in extended trading after the company reported strong quarterly results, announced its first-ever quarterly dividend, and authorized a $50 billion share repurchase program. Amazon (AMZN) also rose by 7% on better-than-expected earnings and revenue, while Apple (AAPL) fell by 3% after reporting lower sales in China.

As expected, the FOMC maintained the target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25%-5.50% and stated that the risks to employment and inflation targets are becoming more balanced. The FOMC removed mention of possible additional policy tightening but declined to immediately ease monetary policy, saying it did not believe it was appropriate to lower the target range until there was greater confidence that inflation was moving steadily toward 2%. During the press conference, Powell said a rate cut in March was not a base scenario and reiterated a commitment to keep rates at current levels. Markets are discounting the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting at 37% and fully discounting (100%) the probability of the same 25 bps rate cut at the April 30-May 1 meeting. Investors now await the weekly jobless claims and PMI reports from ISM on Thursday and the much-anticipated monthly employment report on Friday.

The US economic reports released on Tuesday showed a growing US economy, bolstering optimism that the Federal Reserve will be able to provide a soft landing. The January Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index rose by 6.8 points to a 2-year high of 114.8, matching expectations. In addition, the December JOLTS Job Openings Index unexpectedly rose by 101,000 to 9.026 million, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a decline to 8.750 million.

As of Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.59%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.76% yesterday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.12%. The S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) indices rose to new record highs. Stocks rose on news of Treasury borrowing as rising tax revenues, a sign of economic growth, drove lower borrowing estimates.

At Friday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.16% (+0.50% for the week) and had risen to a new record high. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.07% on Friday (-0.07% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Friday negative by 0.36% (+0.40% for the week). Friday's economic reports on personal spending for December and home sales for December were better than expected, and price pressures eased after the core PCE deflator for December — the Fed's preferred measure of inflation — showed the slowest pace in 2 years.

The week promises to be a busy one, starting with the central banks meeting and ending with the Nonfarm Payrolls labor market report

Tesla (TSLA) is down by more than 10% after reporting weaker-than-expected adjusted earnings per share for Q4 and stating that vehicle volume growth in 2024 could be markedly lower than in 2023. Health insurer stocks are also down, led by a 13% drop in Humana (HUM) shares after it projected 2024 adjusted earnings well below consensus and withdrew its 2025 earnings target. Boeing (BA) fell more than 6% yesterday, topping the Dow Jones (US30) losers list after the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) halted a planned increase in production of the Boeing 737 Max airliner.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Canada (BoC) left its key overnight rate at 5% and said that while core inflation is still a concern, the bank is focusing on when to lower borrowing costs rather than whether to raise rates again. Bank of Canada Governor Maclem said at a press conference that the Bank of Canada is not yet ready, willing, or able to go soft on interest rates but hinted that a rate cut is around the corner.

Economic news from the US on Tuesday was weaker than expected. The Richmond Fed's January index of current conditions in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly fell by 4 to a 3-year low of negative 15, weaker than expectations of a rise to negative 8. Markets are discounting the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 3% at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 and 48% for the same 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 meeting. As recently as a week ago, the probability of a rate cut in March was 60%.

WTI crude oil prices held just below $75 a barrel on Tuesday, near their highest levels in four weeks, as fresh strikes by US and British troops on Houthi targets in Yemen heightened fears of a wider conflict in the region that could disrupt supplies. Meanwhile, the resumption of production from Libya's largest field and signs of rising output, especially from non-OPEC countries, continued to weigh on the oil market. On the demand side, the IEA revised its forecast for oil demand growth in 2024 to 1.24 million bpd, up 180,000 bpd, citing improved economic growth and lower oil prices in Q4. OPEC also maintained its forecast for oil demand growth of 2.25 million bpd in 2024, with 1.85 million bpd growth expected in 2025.

Stocks rose to record highs on Friday on optimism about the US economic outlook. According to the University of Michigan, inflation expectations in the US fell this month, bolstering hopes that the Fed could provide a soft landing for the economy. In addition, Friday's rally in chip stocks is also boosting tech stocks and the broader market after Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co gave an upbeat outlook for this year, bolstering hopes for a rebound in chip sales.

Investor focus this week is on central bank meetings in Japan, Canada, the Eurozone, and China

Economic news out of the US on Thursday was mixed. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 16,000 to a 16-month low of 187,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected at 205,000. In addition, December housing starts fell by 4.3% m/m to 1.460 million, stronger than expectations of 1.425 million. December building permits, an indicator of future construction, rose by 1.9% m/m to 1.495 million, stronger than expectations of 1.477 million. On the downside, the Philadelphia Fed's January business outlook survey rose by 2.2 to negative 10.6, weaker than expectations of negative 6.5.

Economic news from the US on Wednesday was hawkish for Fed policy and bullish for the US dollar, which pressured the indices. Retail sales for December rose by 0.6% m/m, beating expectations of 0.4% m/m. Manufacturing production for December rose by 0.1% m/m, stronger than expectations of no change. The Fed's Beige Book also supported the dollar as it stated that most Fed districts reported little or no change in economic activity, and overall, their firms' expectations for future growth remain positive.

Boeing (BA) shares fell more than 6% yesterday, topping the list of losers in the S&P500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to neutral from upgraded, citing an increased risk that growing scrutiny of the company's manufacturing quality will affect production or delivery rates. Morgan Stanley (MS) shares fell more than 4% yesterday after the bank reported fourth-quarter sales and trading revenue of $2.20 billion, below consensus of $2.26 billion. Apple (AAPL) is down more than 1% after the company cut prices on the iPhone 15 and other products in China in an attempt to spur weak demand for new models. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are up more than 3% after KeyBanc Capital Markets raised its price target on the company's stock from $650 to $740.

Bank of Canada, business and consumer surveys showed that the economy has suffered from the Bank's aggressive rate hike campaign, reinforcing the view that the tightening cycle is likely over and setting the stage for policymakers to start considering rate cuts as early as the first half of this year. Canada will release inflation data today. Economists forecast core inflation to remain at 2.8% in annualized terms, while overall inflation is forecast to jump from 3.1% to 3.4% y/y. However, the Bank of Canada prefers to focus more on median values. The median CPI is expected to fall from 3.4% to 3.3% y/y. Lower inflation will put pressure on the Canadian currency, but a lot will also depend on oil prices, as CAD is a commodity currency, and higher oil prices tend to strengthen the Canadian currency.

Defense stocks rose Friday amid escalating hostilities in the Middle East after the US and its allies launched joint airstrikes against Houthi rebels in Yemen. As a result, shares of Northrop Grumman (NOC), L3Harris Technologies (LHX), and Lockheed Martin (LMT) rose more than 2%. Tesla (TSLA) closed down by more than 3% after it cut car prices again in China and said it would suspend production at its European plant as suppliers changed transportation routes in response to attacks on ships in the Red Sea. Wells Fargo (WFC) closed down by more than 3% after reporting a fourth-quarter non-interest expense of $15.79 billion, above consensus of $14.40 billion. Bank of America (BAC) closed down by more than 1% after reporting fourth-quarter trading revenue, excluding DVA, of $3.75 billion, below consensus estimates of $3.84 billion.

The focus this week is on the inflation data of the major economies

The US Consumer Price Index for December rose to 3.4% y/y from 3.1% y/y in November, beating expectations of 3.2% y/y. The core CPI for December declined to 3.9% y/y from 4.0% y/y in November, the lowest reading in 2 years, but above expectations of 3.8% y/y. US weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 1,000 to a 2.5-month low of 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 210,000. Markets are discounting the odds of a 25 bps rate cut to 3% at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 and 70% for the same 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 meeting.

Today, the US will release its monthly consumer price index (CPI) report. The overall CPI is expected to rise from 3.1% to 3.2% year-over-year. At the same time, core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, will decline from 4% y/y to 3.8% y/y. Lower inflation will increase the likelihood that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as March. In such a scenario, the US dollar will be under pressure, which will give confidence to risky assets (EUR, GBP) as well as indices.

Lower expectations for a Fed interest rate cut in March weighed on equities as swap markets show that the probability of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting fell to 67% from the 100% probability last month.

Atlanta Fed President Bostic said yesterday he is comfortable with the US Fed's restrictive stance. Bostic wants to see the economy continue to grow and inflation reach our 2% level. He added that he expects the Fed's first-rate cut in the third quarter of this year.

The dollar rose to a 3-week high on Friday morning after a stronger-than-expected US December payrolls report dampened expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates. However, the dollar gave up mid-day and moved to the downside after the ISM Services Business Activity Index for December in the US came in weaker than expected. US nonfarm payrolls for the decade rose by 216,000, exceeding expectations of 175,000. The unemployment rate for December was unchanged at 3.7%, which was stronger than expectations for an increase to 3.8%. The US average hourly earnings for the decade rose by 0.4% m/m and 4.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y. The US ISM Services Business Activity Index for the decade fell by 2.1 to a 7-month low of 50.6, weaker than expectations of 52.5. Also boosting stocks were dovish comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin on Friday, when he said he was not opposed to lowering interest rates as the economy normalizes and confidence grows that inflation will fall.

Inflation data in the spotlight this week

Weekly initial jobless claims fell by 18,000 to a 2-month low of 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected at 216,000. In addition, the December employment change from ADP rose by 164,000, indicating a more robust labor market than expectations of 125,000 and the largest increase in 4 months. Markets estimate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 at 7% and at the March 19-20 meeting at 70%.

The minutes of the December 12-13 FOMC meeting did not indicate an imminent Fed rate cut and provided support for the dollar. The minutes also showed that policymakers agreed that it is appropriate to maintain a restrictive policy for some time until inflation begins to decline steadily. Markets estimate the odds of a -25bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 at 9% and at the next meeting on March 19-20 at 77% (down from 99% a week ago).

Weakness in technology stocks pressured the overall market. Apple (AAPL) shares fell more than 3% yesterday after Barclays downgraded it to a low rating due to concerns about low demand for the iPhone. Shares of chip companies are also under pressure after Bloomberg News reported that ASML Holding NV canceled some shipments of its chip-making machines to China at the request of the Biden administration.

Hawkish comments from former US Treasury Secretary L. Summers on Friday lent support to the dollar when he said "..there's not going to be as much room for the Fed to ease as people are hoping." Indeed, while there is a sense of optimism about the US inflation outlook in the second half of 2023 following encouraging CPI and Core PCE reports, it is premature to declare victory. Any pause in or reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be a disaster for sentiment, leading to a revision of interest rate expectations to a hawkish approach. The Fed's dovish stance is a clear signal that officials want to change policy in time to ensure a soft landing; in other words, they favor growth over inflation.

Volatility will gradually increase closer to Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls data

Economic news is also contributing to the rally in stock indices. US weekly initial jobless claims rose by 12,000 to 218,000, indicating a weak labor market versus expectations of a rise to 210,000. US home sales for November were unchanged m/m, weaker than expectations of a 0.9% m/m increase.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.30%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.16% on Wednesday. A decline in global bond yields is lending support to stocks on optimism that global central banks will start cutting interest rates next year.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.54% on Tuesday. Stocks rose on Tuesday in leisurely holiday trading as markets in Europe and parts of Asia were closed for the Christmas holiday. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Index (US500) hit a nearly two-year high, and the NASDAQ index (US100) hit a record high. Stocks are supported by the seasonal Santa Claus rally (prices typically rise between Christmas and the first days of the New Year). Strengthening chip stocks boosted the overall market and pushed the Nasdaq 100 Index to a record high, while a more than 2% rise in WTI crude oil prices drove energy stocks higher.

On Friday, the US PCE deflator for November fell to a 2-year low of 2.6% y/y from October's revised 2.9% y/y and was weaker than expectations of 2.8% y/y. The core PCE deflator for November fell to 3.2% y/y from October's revised 3.4% y/y and weaker than expected 3.3% y/y. Other economic indicators showed that US Durable Goods Orders for November rose sharply by 5.4% m/m, more than offsetting the revised 5.1% decline in October and exceeding expectations of 2.3%. US new home sales for November fell by 12.2% m/m to 590,000, much weaker than the report's expectations of 690,000. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for last December was revised by 0.3 points upward to a 5-month high of 69.7, which was stronger than market expectations.

The last trading week of the 2023 year

The Philadelphia Fed's December business outlook survey unexpectedly fell by 4.6 to minus 10.5, which was weaker than expectations for a rise to minus 3.0. Also, the US Q3 GDP report was revised down by 0.3 to 4.9% (q/q), which was weaker than expectations of no change at 5.2%. In addition, leading indicators for November declined by 0.5% m/m, marking the twentieth consecutive month of declining readings. In contrast, weekly initial jobless claims rose by 2,000 to 205,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expectations of a rise to 215,000.

US home sales in November rose by 0.8% m/m to 3.82 million, which was stronger than expectations of a decline to 3.78 million. In addition, the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index for December rose by 9.7 to a 5-month high of 110.7, exceeding expectations of 104.5. Philadelphia Fed President Harker's comments on Wednesday were somewhat hawkish and favorable to the US dollar when he said the Fed should start cutting interest rates, but "we shouldn't do it too quickly, and we're not going to do it all at once."

The US real estate news on Tuesday was mixed. On the upside, construction starts unexpectedly rose by 14.8% m/m to a 6-month high of 1.56 million in November, which was stronger than expectations for a decline to 1.36 million. Building permits in November, an indicator of future construction, conversely fell by 2.5% m/m to a 4-month low of 1.460 million, which was weaker than expectations for a decline to 1.465 million.

Goldman Sachs yesterday raised its target for the S&P 500 by the end of next year to 5,100 from a mid-November forecast of 4,700, saying the Fed's dovish policy rate last week and lower consumer prices will allow real yields to fall and support equity valuations. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 8% at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 and 76% at the next meeting on March 19-20.

Hawkish comments from the Fed on Friday lent support to the dollar. New York Fed President Williams said the question now is whether the bank has sufficiently constrained the economy. That said, talk of a rate cut in March is now premature. Also, Atlanta Fed President Bostic said that policymakers still need a few more months to see enough data to gain confidence that inflation will continue to decline, and he expects the Fed to start cutting interest rates in the third quarter of 2024 if inflation declines as expected.

This week's focus is on the BoJ Interest Rate Decision, and inflation data in Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone

Economic news from the US on Thursday was better than expected. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 19,000 to an 8-week low of 202,000, indicating a stronger labor market. In addition, retail sales for November unexpectedly rose by 0.3% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m.

As of Wednesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 1.40%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.37%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.38% yesterday. Stocks rallied sharply on Wednesday, with the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) rising to near 2-year highs and the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) soaring to an all-time high. Stocks opened higher on Wednesday on the back of a favorable US producer price index (PPI) report for November that showed easing price pressures on manufacturers, a dovish factor for Fed policy. Stock gains accelerated in the afternoon after the Fed signaled the end of its interest rate hike cycle and projected a 75 bps rate cut next year.

As of Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.48%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.46%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.70% yesterday. The S&P500 Index (US500) rose to a 20-month high, while the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) and NASDAQ (US100) indices rose to year-to-date highs. Stocks found support after the US Consumer Price Index, released on Tuesday, fell to a 5-month low, boosting hopes that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates in the first half of 2024.

As of Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.39%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.20% yesterday. Stocks found support on Monday on expectations that US consumer prices will continue to decline. Today, the CPI report for November will be released. US CPI is expected to decline to 3.1% y/y from 3.2% y/y in October, while CPI excluding food and energy is expected to remain unchanged at 4.0% y/y.

Stocks initially declined on Friday, and bond yields jumped after the monthly labor market report showed a larger-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls for November and an unexpected drop in the unemployment rate to a 4-month low, dampening speculation that the Fed will cut interest rates as early as the first quarter of next year. However, stocks reversed and headed higher as inflation expectations eased, and a larger-than-expected increase in the University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index for December improved prospects for a soft landing.

The focus this week is on global central banks meetings and inflation data

A positive for stocks yesterday was Alphabet (GOOG) shares rising more than 5% after Google released Gemini, "the largest and most capable artificial intelligence model" the company has ever developed. Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares are up more than 5% after the company unveiled its new accelerator chip MI300, saying the processor will be able to run artificial intelligence programs faster than competing products.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.19%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.39%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed down by 0.58%. The broad market declined yesterday despite economic data out of the US on Wednesday proving dovish for Fed policy. The November US employment change from ADP rose by 103,000, weaker than expectations of 130,000. The Q3 nonfarm labor productivity rose to 5.2% from 4.7%, better than expectations of 4.9%, and became the highest indicator in three years.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.31% on Tuesday. A decline in bond yields on Tuesday supported technology stocks and the Nasdaq 100. Bond yields fell after the October JOLTS job openings report fell more than expected to a 2-year low, a sign that the labor market is cooling and dovish for Fed policy.

As of Friday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.11%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.54%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 0.84% on Monday, hitting a 3-week low. Yesterday's rise in bond yields pressured technology stocks and lowered the broad market. Bond yields are rising on concerns that markets may be overly optimistic about the Fed's chances of cutting interest rates by the second quarter of 2024. Markets forecast a 68% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20, 2024, FOMC meeting and a fully discounted (137% probability) probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the April 30-May 1, 2024, FOMC meeting.

The ISM Manufacturing Index for November was unchanged at 46.7, which was weaker than expectations of a rise to 47.8 and was the 13th consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing activity. Dovish comments from the Fed on Friday put pressure on the dollar. Fed Chair Powell signaled that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged at the December 12-13 FOMC meeting.

This week, the main focus of investors is on the Nonfarm Payrolls as well as BoC and RBA interest rate meetings

Weekly jobless claims rose by 86,000 to a 2-year high of 1.927 million, indicating a weaker labor market than expectations of 1.865 million. In addition, the October core PCE deflator, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, declined to 3.5% y/y from 3.7% y/y in September, which matched expectations and was the slowest rate of increase in 2 years. However, hawkish comments from New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly pushed bond yields higher and negatively impacted tech stocks as they dampened speculation that the Fed will soon cut interest rates.

As of Wednesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.04%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.16%. Stocks came under moderate pressure yesterday amid hawkish comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin, who said the Fed should keep the possibility of interest rate hikes on the table.

Economic news from the US on Tuesday was mixed for the dollar. On the bearish side, the Richmond Fed's November manufacturing survey fell from 8 to 5. In addition, the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index for November rose by 2.9 to 102.0, stronger than expectations of 101.0. Today, the US will release its GDP report for the quarter. The data is expected to be revised upward, which could temporarily support the dollar and put pressure on stock indices.

Monday's US economic news was weaker than expected and was bearish for both the dollar and the broad equity market. October new home sales fell by 5.6% m/m to 679.000, which was weaker than expectations of 721.000. In addition, the Dallas Fed's November forecast for overall business activity in the manufacturing sector unexpectedly fell by 0.7 to a 4-month low of minus 19.9, which was weaker than expectations for an increase to minus 16.0. In terms of technical analysis, a divergence has formed in the US stock indices, indicating an impending correction.

Economic news from the US had a negative impact on the dollar on Friday after S&P reported that activity in the US manufacturing sector contracted more than expected in November, but activity in the service sector increased more than expected in November. The S&P US Manufacturing PMI for November fell by 0.6 to 49.4, weaker than expectations of 49.9. However, the Services PMI for November unexpectedly rose by 0.2 to a 4-month high of 50.8, which was better than expectations of a decline to 50.3. The dollar's 0.52% decline provided indirect support for the stock. But Nvidia's (NVDA) drop on Friday had a negative impact on the broad technology sector. The company told customers in China that it is delaying the launch of a new artificial intelligence chip until the first quarter of next year. Apple's stock price also fell by nearly 1% after Counterpoint Research data showed that iPhone sales in China from October 30 to November 12 fell by 4% from a year ago.

This week, the main focus will be the RBNZ Interest Rate decision, the inflation rate in Europe, as well as the OPEC+ meeting

US stock indices were not traded yesterday due to the bank holiday. With US markets closed on Thursday due to the Thanksgiving holiday and facing a shorter trading session on Friday, currencies and US indices are likely to trade subdued today, but possibly with some volatility as liquidity is expected to remain tight.

US economic news on Wednesday was mostly better than expected and favorable for the dollar. Weekly initial jobless claims fell by 24,000 to a 5-week low of 209,000, indicating a stronger labor market than expected at 227,000. Additionally, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November was revised upward by 0.9 to 61.3, stronger than expectations of 61.0. The University of Michigan's US expected inflation index for November surprisingly rose by 0.1 to a 7-month high of 4.5%, beating expectations of no change at 4.4%.

US stock indices were declining yesterday. At the stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.18%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.59% on Tuesday. Stocks declined moderately on Tuesday as disappointing corporate earnings results weighed on the overall market. Lower bond yields tempered losses in the broad market amid weaker-than-expected US Federal Reserve Chicago and home sales reports. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for October fell by 0.47 to a 7-month low, which was weaker than expectations of a zero reading. In addition, October home sales fell by 4.1% m/m to a 13-year low of 3.79 million units, weaker than expectations of 3.90 million units.

US stock indices continued their rally yesterday. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.58%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) gained  0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.13% on Monday. At the same time, the S&P 500 Index (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) hit 3-month highs, and the NASDAQ Index (US100) reached a year high. Rising technology stocks led the overall market higher, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Nvidia (NVDA) rising to record highs amid optimism about artificial intelligence.

At Friday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.01% (+2.01% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.13% (+2.44% for the week). On Friday, the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.08% (+2.76% for the week). The broad market initially went down on Friday as bond yields rose following Friday's economic news from the US showing an unexpected increase in October housing starts and building permits, a hawkish factor for Fed policy. However, bond yields retreated from highs towards the end of the trading session, allowing stocks to recover towards the end of the trading session.

FOMC minutes, Canadian and Japanese inflation data, and oil prices will be in focus this week

US stock indices traded flat yesterday amid disappointing corporate earnings results. Cisco Systems (CSCO) fell by 11%, sending technology stocks tumbling after cutting its full-year earnings forecast. Also down more than 7% were shares of retailer Walmart (WMT) after it struck a cautious tone on the outlook for US shoppers. In addition, a more than 3% drop in the price of WTI crude oil to a near four-month low pressured energy stocks. At the stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.13%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 0.12%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) is up by 0.07%.

Stocks rose sharply on Tuesday and bond yields were down after US consumer prices fell more than expected in October, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain its pause. As of Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 1.43%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped 1.91%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.37%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones (US30) indices hit two-month highs, while the Nasdaq (US100) index hit a 3-month-high.

At Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.16%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.08%. The Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 0.22%. The broad market recovered from early losses on Monday after bond yields reversed to the downside, prompting coverage of short positions in equities. In addition, optimism that Tuesday's US consumer price report for October would show an easing of price pressures gave stocks a boost.

Friday's Fed comments had a mixed impact on stocks. On the negative side, Atlanta Fed President Bostic spoke in favor of pausing Fed rate hikes, stating, "I think we will reach the 2% target level without having to do anything else." On the other hand, San Francisco Fed President Daly said that if inflation continues to move sideways and the labor market and GDP growth remain steady or strong, it will probably be necessary to raise rates again. Currently, markets are betting on a 10% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and a 24% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the January 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting.

Investors' attention this week is focused on inflation data from leading economies

Tesla (TSLA) shares fell more than 3% yesterday, topping the list of losers on the Nasdaq 100 (US100) after HSBC initiated coverage of the company's stock with a "downgrade" recommendation and a price target of $146. Walt Disney (DIS) is up more than 6%, leading the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) higher after the company reported 150.2 million Disney+ subscribers in Q4, above the consensus forecast of 147.07 million subscribers.

On Thursday, markets are expecting Fed Chairman Powell's comments during a conference call on monetary policy issues. On Wednesday, Powell did not comment on the economy or interest rates while delivering opening remarks at the Fed's Research and Statistics Division Centennial Conference. Currently, markets are factoring in a 10% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on December 12-13 and an 18% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the January 30-31, 2024 FOMC meeting.

As of Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.17%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.90% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 (US500 and NASDAQ (US100) indices hit 3-week highs yesterday, while the Dow Jones (US30) updated a one-month-high. But by the end of the trading day, the indices began to lose upward momentum amid hawkish FOMC comments.

At Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.10%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.30% on Monday. Stocks rose on Monday on the back of positive developments from last Friday, when a weaker-than-expected October US jobs report and October ISM services report showed a slowing economy that could keep the Federal Reserve from raising interest rates and even start lowering them by the middle of next year.

The US unemployment report released on Friday showed weaker-than-expected labor market dynamics. The US employment number for October rose by 150,000, which was weaker than expectations of 180,000. In addition, the September data was revised downward to 297,000 from 336,000. October's US unemployment rate rose by 0.1 points to a nearly 2-year high of 3.9%, indicating a slight weakening of the labor market versus expectations of an unchanged 3.8%. A positive for inflation was the 0.2% m/m increase in average hourly earnings in October, which was slightly weaker than expectations of 0.3%.

Investors' attention this week is focused on the RBA rate decision and UK GDP data

Thursday's economic news out of the US was primarily dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar. Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose by 5,000 to 217,000, indicating a slightly weaker labor market than expectations of no change at 210,000. Nonfarm labor productivity rose by 4.7% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations of 4.3% and the highest in 3 years.

At the close of the stock exchange on Wednesday, the Dow Jones (US30) index rose by 0.67%, and the S&P 500 (US500) index rose by 1.05%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive at 1.64% yesterday. The S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (US100) indices hit one-week highs, and the Dow Jones Industrials index hit a 10-day-high. Weaker-than-expected ADP employment and ISM manufacturing reports in the US lowered bond yields and boosted stocks. Meanwhile, stock indices continued to rise in the afternoon after the FOMC committee left the rate unchanged at 5.5%, and Fed Chair Powell said that the Fed may suspend the interest rate hike campaign indefinitely: "Given how far we have come, along with the uncertainties and risks we face, the FOMC is proceeding carefully."

The US economic news released Tuesday was mixed for the dollar and stock indices. On the positive side, the third quarter labor cost index rose by 1.1%, stronger than expectations of an additional 1.0%. In addition, the S&P CoreLogic composite-20 home price index for August rose by 2.16% year-over-year, which was stronger than expectations of 1.75% and was the most significant increase in 7 months. On the bearish side, the Conference Board US Consumer Confidence Index for October fell by 1.7 to a 5-month low of 102.6. In addition, the October Chicago PMI unexpectedly declined by 0.1 to 44.0, weaker than expectations of a rise to 45.0.

At Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.58%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.16% yesterday. Stock indices rose moderately on Monday on the back of a falling dollar, as well as positive corporate news and mergers and acquisitions (M&A) deals. Pressure on the US dollar is also being exerted by the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave its monetary policy unchanged at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Markets are betting a zero probability that the FOMC will raise rates at its next meeting and an 18% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at its next meeting on December 12-13.

At Friday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.12% (-2.21% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.48% (-2.21% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.38% on Friday (-2.23% for the week). Technology stocks received support on Friday from strong reports from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC). Amazon.com (AMZN) closed up by 7.2% after positive earnings and revenue news, as well as positive news on cloud computing prospects. Intel (INTC) rose by 9.5% following management's positive outlook on Q4 revenue and earnings. Chevron (CVX) stock closed negative by 6.5% after warning of declining profitability. Exxon (XOM) closed down by 1.7% due to an earnings miss, although the company's cash flow was better than expected, and it raised its dividend. JP Morgan Chase (JPM) shares fell by 3.4% on news that the CEO plans to sell 141 million JPM shares in 2024 for financial diversification and tax planning. Ford (F) fell by 12.09% after announcing lower earnings.

Nonfarm payrolls report, Fed rate, BoE, and BoJ decisions are in the focus of the investors this week

As of Thursday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.18%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.76%. Stock indices continued to fall yesterday due to weak reports from major technology companies. Shares of Meta Platforms (META) fell more than 5% after weak ad revenue. Meanwhile, shares of Alphabet (GOOG) fell another 2.6%, complementing Wednesday's 9.28% drop amid a disappointing cloud computing revenue report. Amazon (AMZN) reported third-quarter results that beat Wall Street forecasts as growth in the company's cloud business continues to stabilize. But the stock price was barely affected by the report.

As of Wednesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.32%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.43%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 2.43%. Stock indices declined yesterday amid disappointing earnings results from major technology companies. Alphabet (GOOG) shares fell more than 9% after reporting weaker-than-expected cloud computing earnings. Automatic Data Processing (ADP) shares are down more than 7% after reporting third-quarter earnings below consensus. Boeing Co (BA) shares fell more than 2% after the airplane maker reported a larger-than-expected loss and cut its full-year 737 Max delivery forecast amid production problems with the aircraft.

General Electric (GE) closed higher by more than 6% after reporting third-quarter adjusted EPS of 82 cents, well above the consensus of 56 cents, and raising its 2023 adjusted EPS guidance. Verizon Communications (VZ) shares are up more than 9%, leading gains in the S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones Industrials (US30), after the company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of $1.22, which was better than the consensus estimate of $1.18. Coca-Cola Co (KO) closed higher by more than 3% after reporting 11% organic revenue growth in the third quarter, well above the consensus of 6.91%. Shares of Google Alphabet (GOOG) Inc. are down more than 5% after weaker-than-expected revenue growth from its cloud computing operations. Microsoft (MSFT) reported fiscal first-quarter results on Tuesday that beat Wall Street forecasts, as the tech giant's investments in artificial intelligence fueled growth in its Azure cloud business. The stock price rose more than 4% after the report was published.

American stock indices traded yesterday without any unified dynamics. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.58%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.17%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.27%. The decline in T bond yields on Monday was bearish for the US dollar and bullish for stock indices. The dollar on Monday initially found support in the jump in the 10-year bond yield to a new 16-year high, but then bond yields reversed and headed lower. From a fundamental perspective, the tightening of financial conditions in the US is certainly reducing the need for further monetary tightening, and many US Fed officials have moved to a less hawkish tone. Markets are currently pricing in just a 2% chance that the FOMC will raise the lending rate by 25 bps at its next meeting, which ends on November 1, and a 23% chance that the rate will be raised by 25 bps at its December 13 meeting.

The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street's most commonly tracked gauge of investor nervousness, closed Friday at its highest level in nearly seven months. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds fell Friday, a day after it topped the 5% mark for the first time since July 2007 amid mixed comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. As a result, investors have piled into other traditional safe-haven assets such as the dollar and gold, as well as short-term Treasuries or money market funds that offer more attractive yields.

The focus this week is interest rates, inflation data, and the US reporting season

As of Thursday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.75%. The S&P 500 index (US500) was down by 0.85%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.96% yesterday. The broad market was under pressure as the 10-year bond yield rose to a 16-year high after an unexpected drop in weekly US jobless claims to an 8-month low, indicating labor market strength that could force the Fed to raise interest rates for longer. However, Fed Chair Powell's comments on Thursday were somewhat dovish, with Powell noting the following: "Given the uncertainties and risks, and how far we have come, the FOMC is proceeding carefully. We will decide the extent of additional policy firming and how long policy will remain restrictive based on the totality of the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."

As of Wednesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.98%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.34%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.63%. Stock indices are down due to the risk of an escalating war between Israel and Hamas after an explosion near a Gaza hospital complicated diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict. Following the blast, leaders from Jordan, Egypt, and the Palestinian Authority canceled scheduled summit meetings with President Biden, who landed in Israel yesterday. Hamas immediately blamed Israel for the bombing, but Israeli military authorities presented evidence that the explosion was caused by a mistaken Hamas rocket and not an Israeli aerial bombardment. In addition, the White House said today that the "current" US intelligence assessment is that Israel is "not responsible" for the bombing near a Gaza hospital based on "aerial imagery, intercepts, and open source information."

At Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.04%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) closed at about the opening level. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.25% yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrials Index (US30) hit a 3-week high yesterday, while the Nasdaq 100 Index (US100) hit a one-week low. The broad market was pressured by rising bond yields on the back of stronger-than-expected US retail sales and industrial production reports for September, which strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to conduct another rate hike. In addition, weakness in chip company stocks had a negative impact on the overall market after it was reported that the US was restricting the sale of chips used for artificial intelligence to China.

As of Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.93% and rose to a 3-week-high yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.20% yesterday. The stock market rose on Monday due to diplomatic efforts to contain the conflict between Israel and Hamas, easing geopolitical concerns and improving market sentiment. President Biden is considering a personal visit to Israel, while German Chancellor Scholz is expected to arrive in Israel on Tuesday. In addition, King Abdullah II of Jordan is in Italy, where he is expected to meet with Italian Prime Minister Meloni to discuss the crisis. Meanwhile, the US security adviser Sullivan said the US has warned Iran in back-channel talks about the risk of an escalation of war. Markets are also expecting positive Q3 quarterly earnings results.

Wells Fargo (WFC) shares closed higher by more than 3% after the company reported third-quarter revenue of $20.86 billion, beating the consensus forecast of $20.16 billion. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) closed higher by more than 1% after it reported third-quarter investment banking earnings of $1.61 billion, better than the consensus forecast of $1.48 billion. Shares of BlackRock (BLK) closed down more than 1% after reporting third-quarter assets under management of $9.10 trillion, below the consensus forecast of $9.23 trillion.

Geopolitical tensions remain at the forefront

At Wednesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.51%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.62%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 0.63%. Stocks posted moderate losses on Thursday amid a stronger-than-expected US CPI report for September. In addition, weekly US initial jobless claims remained unchanged, which was hawkish for Fed policy. Thursday's hawkish reports keep the likelihood of another Fed rate hike this year alive. Stocks continued to lose ground Thursday afternoon as T-bond yields rose further amid weak demand at the $20 billion auction of 30-year Treasury bonds.

According to the FOMC minutes released on Wednesday last month, the Federal Reserve leadership considered the outlook for the US economy uncertain and said it would "proceed cautiously" in deciding whether to raise the benchmark interest rate further. Such caution is generally seen as an indication that the Fed is not inclined to raise rates in the near future. Economic data over the past few months have indicated that inflation is slowing, according to the September 19-20 meeting minutes. Policymakers added that more evidence of inflation slowing to the Fed's 2% target is needed to be confident that inflation will slow to the Fed's 2% target. Officials generally acknowledged that the risks to Fed policy are increasingly balanced between raising rates too high, which hurts the economy, and not raising them enough to contain inflation.

At Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.40%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.52%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.58% yesterday. All three indices hit their 2-week price highs. On Tuesday morning, stocks opened higher amid prospects of additional stimulus in China, which will favor global growth after Bloomberg reported that China is preparing for a new round of stimulus to support its economy. Stocks further extended gains after comments from FRB Atlanta President Bostic reinforced speculation that the Fed is about to take a pause in raising interest rates.

As of Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.59%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.63%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.60% yesterday. The S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq 100 (US100) indices rose to 2-week highs, while the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) reached a one-week-high. Stock indices rose on Monday amid dovish comments from the Federal Reserve, suggesting that the Fed may pause its rate hike cycle. Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson said policymakers are "in a position to proceed cautiously in assessing the degree of additional policy tightening that may be necessary" as the recent rise in Treasury bond yields acts as a potential additional constraint on the economy.

As of Friday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.87% (week-to-date -0.14%), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.18% (week-to-date +0.56%). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.60% (week-to-date +1.61%) on Friday. Stock indexes rose sharply on Friday despite a strong Nonfarm Payrolls report. Stocks retreated initially Friday morning, with the Dow Jones Industrials Index falling to a 4-month low after bond yields jumped on the back of a 336,000 increase in US employment numbers. Additionally, August employment data was revised upward by 40,000 to 227,000 from the originally announced 187,000. The unemployment rate for September was unchanged at 3.8%. But a short time later, stocks returned to the upside amid a falling dollar. The US consumer credit for August unexpectedly contracted by $15.62 billion, the largest decline in 3 years and weaker than expectations for a $11.70 billion increase.

US Inflation data, FOMC minutes, and geopolitical risks will be central topics for investors this week

Today, market attention will focus on the monthly US Nonfarm Payrolls employment report, which is expected to show a 170,000 increase and a 0.1 decline in the September unemployment rate to 3.7%. A stronger-than-expected reading would indicate a strong and resilient labor market. In turn, this would emphasize the Fed's stance of "holding rates longer," and this would directly pressure risk assets such as the euro, pound, stock indices, and even gold. But any hints of a slowing labor market or any unexpected jumps in unemployment will be seen as a negative interest rate impact by the economy, which will weaken the dollar, lower government bond yields, and put confidence back into risk assets, gold, and indices.

The ADP US employment change for September came in at an 89,000 increase, weaker than expectations of 150,000 and the lowest increase in 2.5 years. The ISM Services Business Activity Index for September fell from 0.9 to 53.6, stronger than expectations of 53.5. Factory orders in the US for August rose by 1.2% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.3% m/m.

JPMorgan Asset Management warned that there is a risk of further stock market declines due to rising interest rates, "We didn't expect this rate hike. This is something that will at least slow or even reverse the progress of stock markets." Airbnb (ABNB) stock prices fell more than 6% and topped the list of losers on the Nasdaq 100 index after KeyBanc Capital Markets downgraded the company's stock to sector Perform from Outperform. Goldman Sachs (GS) was down more than 3% and topped the list of losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Morgan Stanley cut its target price on the stock to $329 from $347.

Fed Chair Bowman's hawkish comments on Monday were favorable for the dollar when she stated: "I continue to expect that further interest rate increases are likely to be needed to bring inflation back to the 2% level in a timely manner, as high energy prices could reverse some of the gains we have seen in recent months." For today, markets are factoring in a 31% probability that the FOMC will raise the lending rate by 25 bps at its next meeting on November 1 and a 51% probability that the rate will be raised by 25 bps at the meeting that ends on December 13.

At Friday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.47% (-1.18% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.27% (-0.52% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.14% (+0.36% for the week) on Friday. The PCE core deflator for August, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, fell from 4.3% to 3.9% y/y, the lowest reading in 2 years. The favorable news of lower inflation boosted positive sentiment in equities. However, hawkish comments from New York Fed President Williams on Friday pushed bond yields slightly higher and pulled stocks back from better levels when he stated, "My current assessment is that we are at, or near, the peak level of the target range for the federal funds rate, though I expect we will need to maintain a restrictive stance of monetary policy for some time."

Nonfarm payrolls report, RBA and RBNZ interest rate decisions, and OPEC+ meeting are in the focus of the investors this week

The head of the largest US bank, Jamie Dimon, said yesterday that the world is not ready for a 7% rate along with stagflation and that going from 5% to 7% would be much more painful than 3% to 5%. In fact, even 5% is already a pain that no one has fully felt yet, as current actual US government debt service rates are only approaching 3%. The cost of servicing private sector debt is also far from rates consistent with 5%.

The Dow Jones Industrials (US30) fell to a 3-month low. The broad market moved to the downside yesterday after bond yields resumed their upward trend, with the 10-year German bond yield rising to a new 12-year high. Stocks initially headed higher after bond yields fell amid dovish comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, who said the government shutdown and a prolonged strike by automakers may require less action from the Fed. Stocks also gained support after Democratic and Republican leaders in the Senate on Tuesday night agreed on a plan to keep the government open through mid-November and provide $6 billion in aid to Ukraine.

The S&P 500 (US500) and Dow Jones Industrials (US30) fell to 3-month lows, while the NASDAQ (US100) index fell to a 5-week low. Concerns about the health of the US economy pressured stocks yesterday. US new home sales in August fell by 8.7% m/m to a 5-month low of 675,000, weaker than expectations of 698,000. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for September fell by 5.7 to a 4-month low of 103.0, which was weaker than expectations of 105.5.

At yesterday's close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.13%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.40%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.45% on Monday. The 10-year bond yield rose to 4.523%, the highest since 2007. The hawkish attitude of the Fed representatives is also yielding results. In the current environment, risk assets (euro, British pound, stock indices) are likely to remain under pressure while the US dollar will continue to rise.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.31% (-1.87% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.23% (-2.81% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.09% (-3.35% for the week). On Friday, hawkish comments from several FOMC policymakers supported the dollar, which was a negative factor for stock indices. In addition, a bullish factor for the dollar was the US manufacturing PMI data released on Friday. The US manufacturing PMI for September rose by 1.0 to 48.9, exceeding expectations of 48.2.

This week's focus is on the inflation indicators in the United States, Eurozone, and Australia

At Thursday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.64%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.82%. Stocks and indices extended Wednesday's losses yesterday as the hawkish tone of Wednesday's FOMC meeting dampened global risk sentiment. Stock index futures added to their losses after weekly US jobless claims unexpectedly fell to a 7-month low, indicating a strengthening labor market and a hawkish tone for Fed policy.

At Wednesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.94%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 1.46%. Stocks declined after the US Federal Reserve took another pause but signaled that interest rates will still be rising. Policymakers said another 25 bps rate hike is likely this year, and the FOMC dot plot showed that the target for the federal funds rate in 2024 and 2025 will be 50 bps higher than forecast in June. The Fed's hawkish stance drove the 10-year T bond yield to a 16-year high and sent stocks and stock indexes tumbling.

Canadian inflation accelerated more than expected for the second consecutive month. The Consumer Price Index rose from 3.3% to 4% y/y in August, the fastest pace since April. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) rose slightly to 3.3% from 3.2%. The three-month moving average of indicators the Bank of Canada cited as key to its team rose a full percentage point to 4.49% on an annualized basis, according to Bloomberg calculations. Investors raised bets that Canada's Central Bank will resume policy tightening and hold another rate hike at its October meeting.

At the close of the stock exchange on Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.02%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.07%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Monday at its opening price. Stock indices were down on Monday due to caution ahead of the two-day FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Markets fully expect the FOMC to leave the main rate target unchanged at 5.5% (99% probability) this week. However, the FOMC is expected to maintain a hawkish tone and remain open to one last rate hike, as inflation and the economy have not slowed enough yet.

The US dollar came under pressure on Friday after reports from the University of Michigan on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations fell more than expected, a dovish factor for Fed policy. The University of Michigan's inflation expectations for September unexpectedly fell to a .5-year low of 3.1%, better than expectations of 3.5%. The University of Michigan's US Consumer Sentiment Index for September fell by 1.8 to 67.7, weaker than expectations of 69.0. Other data showed that US manufacturing output for August rose by 0.1% m/m, in line with expectations. Industrial production rose by 0.4% m/m in August, stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m.

A week of central bank meetings and inflation data ahead

Weekly US Initial Jobless Claims rose by 3,000 to 220,000 from expectations of 5,000, indicating a stronger than expected labor market. The data boosted equities and reinforced the assumption that the Fed will be able to achieve a soft landing for the US economy. The US goods and services price index for August accelerated to 1.6% y/y from 0.8% y/y in July, the highest reading in 4 months and slightly stronger than expectations of 1.3% y/y. US retail sales for August rose by 0.6% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m. The probability of a rate hike by the US Fed has decreased further. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 2% and a 25 bps hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 35%.

Moderna (MRNA) rose more than 6% yesterday, leading gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 stocks after it reported that a modified version of its flu shot met key targets in a late-stage trial, paving the way for FDA approval of the vaccine. Ford Motor (F) shares are up more than 2% after UBS upgraded them to a "buy" rating with a $15 price target. General Motors (GM) shares added nearly 1% after UBS upgraded their rating to "buy" from "neutral" with a $44 price target.

At Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.05%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.57%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.04%. Weakness in technology stocks had a negative impact on the overall market. For example, Oracle closed down more than 13% after reporting lower-than-expected first-quarter earnings due to a slowdown in cloud sales. According to Morgan Stanley, Oracle's results raise questions about the timing of artificial intelligence (AI) demand turning into revenue for the company. In addition, Apple shares were down more than 1% after introducing the iPhone 15 lineup.

As of Monday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.25%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.14% on Monday. Strengthening tech stocks provided support to the overall market yesterday. Tesla shares rose more than 7% after Morgan Stanley upgraded their rating. Additionally, Qualcomm shares were up more than 3% after Apple extended its contract with the company to supply semiconductor chips for modems for another three years.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.22% (-0.86% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14% (-1.61% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.09% on Friday (-2.61% for the week). Strengthening crude oil prices on Friday boosted energy stocks and the broader market. Stocks also received support as the likelihood grew regarding a pause in Fed rate hikes amid comments from Dallas FRB Governor Lorie Logan, who stated the following: "Another pass at raising interest rates may be appropriate at the FOMC meeting later this month." Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 7% and a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 48%.

Investors' attention this week is focused on US inflation data and ECB Interest Rate Decision

As of Thursday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.17%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.32%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.89% yesterday. The broader market was under pressure yesterday due to weakness in technology stocks. Apple (AAPL) stock prices fell again by more than 3% yesterday amid a Wall Street Journal report that China plans to extend its iPhone ban to government agencies and state-owned companies. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 2%, complementing Wednesday's 2% drop after Research Affiliates said the stock is "a textbook story of a Big Market Delusion," and with the stock trading at 110 times earnings, the stock is off the charts.

US economic news on Wednesday provided support for the US dollar after the ISM Services Business Activity Index for August unexpectedly rose by 1.8 to a 6-month high of 54.5, which was stronger than expectations of a decline to 52.5. In addition, the trade deficit widened to $65.0 bln. in July from $63.7 bln. in June, less than expectations of $68.0 bln. Comments from Fed President Boston Collins on Wednesday were somewhat hawkish and lent support to the dollar when she said it was "too early" to say inflation was on a steady path toward 2% and further tightening could be warranted depending on the data. She added that the Fed "will have to keep rates at restrictive levels for some time" as, although demand is easing, it continues to outpace supply, adding to price pressures. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 8% and a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 54%.

Economic news from the US on Tuesday provided support for the dollar after factory orders fell by 2.1% m/m in July, the biggest decline in 8 months, but stronger than expectations of a 2.5% m/m decline. FOMC representative Waller's comments on Tuesday were dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar as he signaled his support for a pause in Fed rate hikes. But weaker-than-expected economic news from China and the eurozone on Tuesday boosted relative optimism about the US economy and the dollar.

Canada's economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter, with consumer spending slowing sharply and residential investment falling. Combined with a cooling labor market, this should ease the Bank of Canada's inflation concerns and keep interest rates unchanged at its September 6 meeting.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.33% (+1.15% for the week), the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.18% (+2.03% for the week) and rose to a 4-week high. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed Friday negative by 0.02% (+2.46% for the week). Stock indices pulled back from their highs on Friday, with the Nasdaq 100 Index turning negative as technology stocks retreated after bond yields rose as the August ISM Manufacturing Activity Index rose more than expected to a 6-month high.

This week may bring economic surprises

The US PCE index for July, the Fed's preferred inflation index, rose by 0.2% m/m and 3.3% y/y, in line with market expectations. The US core PCE deflator for July rose by 0.2% m/m and was 4.2% y/y, which was also in line with expectations. The dollar index rose by 0.45% on Thursday on the back of a strong US personal spending report (0.8% m/m), which pointed to the resilience of US consumer spending. The weekly initial jobless claims report showed a slight strengthening of the labor market. The number of claims fell by 4000 to 228,000.

US economic news on Wednesday was mostly dovish for Fed policy and bearish for the dollar. The August ADP employment figure came in at 177,000, which was weaker than expectations of 195,000 and was the smallest gain in 5 months. Additionally, Q2 GDP was revised downward to 2.1% (q/q) from 2.4%. A bullish factor for the dollar is the unexpected 0.9% m/m rise in July home sales, which was stronger than expectations of a 1.0% m/m decline. Markets rate the odds of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting at 11% and a 25 bps hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting at 49%.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.85%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.45%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.74% on Tuesday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) hit a 2.5-week high, the Dow Jones Industrials (US30) hit a 1.5-week high, and the Nasdaq 100 Index hit a 3-week high. The stock indexes rose after weaker-than-expected economic news from the US on Tuesday regarding JOLTS job openings for July and consumer confidence for August, pushing bond yields lower and raising the possibility that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate hike campaign.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.62%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.63%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.84% on Monday. Stocks rose on Monday while bond yields declined thanks to support provided by comments from US Federal Reserve Governor Powell on Friday that the Fed is prepared to continue raising interest rates if needed but "will proceed cautiously" on whether to raise rates again, opening the door for a potential pause in Fed operations. Currently, there is a 23% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the September 20 FOMC meeting and a 67% chance of a 25 bps rate hike at the November 1 FOMC meeting.

At Friday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.73% (-0.53% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.67% (+0.58% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.94% (+1.82% for the week) on Friday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that policymakers are prepared to raise interest rates further if necessary but also signaled that they may keep rates at current levels in September if economic data support it.

This week, the main focus will be the US labor market data, the inflation rate in Europe, as well as the Manufacturing PMI

On Thursday, the Fed's hawkish comments were bullish for the dollar index and bearish for stock indices. FRB Boston President Collins said it will take time for inflation to reach the Fed's 2% target, and "we may need to raise rates further, and we may hold rates at restrictive levels for some time." Former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said a pickup in economic activity this summer could delay the Fed's plans to end its campaign to raise interest rates, "This acceleration could put upward pressure on inflation, stop the disinflation we're seeing, and instead delay the Fed's plans to change policy." Philadelphia Fed President Harker believes policymakers have likely undertaken sufficient tightening and that the Fed has "probably done enough" and believes interest rates will be steady through the year's end.

Shares of major technology companies rose ahead of Nvidia's quarterly results. On Wednesday, NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) reported better-than-expected second-quarter results and an encouraging outlook as the race to adopt artificial intelligence continues to drive demand for its chips. The stock price rose more than 9% in after-hours trading.

As of Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) index decreased by 0.51%, while the S&P500 (US500) index lost 0.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 0.06% yesterday. Yesterday's US economic news was mixed for stocks after July's existing home sales fell more than expected to a 6-month low. Still, the August manufacturing report from the FRB Richmond unexpectedly rose to a 7-month high. The 3-day symposium of the US central bank in Jackson Hole starts as early as tomorrow, where the main focus of investors is directed towards the speeches of US Fed chief Jerome Powell on Friday. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate hike at the September 20th FOMC meeting at 16% and a 25bp hike at the First of November FOMC meeting at 49%.

Technology stocks rose thanks to a more than 6% rise in NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) ahead of the chipmaker's quarterly results due on Wednesday. Nvidia is riding a wave of optimism about artificial intelligence. Shares of Tesla Inc (TSLA) rose more than 6% as investors bought into the electric car maker's recent stock slump amid a new positive outlook from Wall Street for TSLA. Baird listed Tesla as a "best idea," noting several favorable factors, including the launch of Cybertruck, wider adoption of self-driving software, and continued growth in the energy business, that could overshadow concerns about margin erosion from recent price declines.

The Jackson Hole Symposium is scheduled to begin on Thursday of this week. Various academics, bank chiefs, and central bank governors gather to discuss monetary policy and financial markets. The policymakers will give their interviews at the end of the conference. These interviews could cause significant volatility as they could foreshadow future monetary policy dynamics. In particular, investors will be waiting for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to speak to clarify the economic outlook and the future trajectory of interest rates.

This week's focus is on the Jackson Hole Symposium, PMI data, and PBoC prime rate

US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 9,000 to 239,000, showing a stronger labor market than expected at 240,000. The August FRB Philadelphia Business Outlook Survey rose by 25.5 to a 16-month high of 12.0, stronger than expectations of 10.4.

According to the FOMC minutes of the US Federal Reserve's July 25-26 meeting released Wednesday last month, most Fed officials still viewed high inflation as a persistent threat that could warrant further interest rate hikes. At the same time, officials saw some tentative signs that inflationary pressures may be easing. Most investors and economists believe the July rate hike was the last. Earlier this week, Goldman Sachs economists predicted the Fed would begin cutting rates by the middle of next year.

Stronger-than-expected consumer spending increased the likelihood that the Federal Reserve may resume raising rates this year. Retail sales rose by 0.7% last month (the most significant increase since the beginning of the year), above expectations of 0.4%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, bets on a Fed rate hike in November rose to 34% from 26%. But economists predict retail sales will weaken for the rest of the year as falling credit availability will weigh on economic activity and the labor market.

On Tuesday, the US will release retail sales data for July, which is expected to show a pickup in demand early in the third quarter after a smaller-than-expected increase in June. Other data likely indicates that the manufacturing sector is still struggling, with the Empire State manufacturing index expected to fall into negative territory, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing index is also expected to remain negative.

Friday's Producer Price Index (PPI) data released on Friday came in slightly higher at 0.3% in July, up from the previously revised reading of 0%. This was likely another reason why the dollar held on to its high ground at the end of the week, as the PPI index is usually a precursor to a rising CPI index as price pressures trickle down from manufacturing to the final consumer. Friday also saw the release of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment data. The report showed a slight improvement in one-year inflation expectations, which fell to 3.3% from the previous reading of 3.4%. Current conditions improved, but the expectations index fell to 67.3 from 68.3.

Investors' attention this week is focused on FOMC minutes and inflation data in the UK, Canada, and Japan

US inflation data came out better than expected. The overall annualized inflation rate rose from 3% to 3.2% (forecast 3.3%), while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) fell from 4.8% to 4.7% (forecast 4.8%). Year-on-year inflation rose for the first time since July 2022, and oil prices, which have risen 27% in a month and a half, will do nothing to further reduce inflation. There is a lot of uncertainty on the economic front right now, but what is clear is that the Fed plans to keep rates high. Before the September meeting of the Fed, the market will see another publication of macro statistics on the labor market and inflation, so investors are in no hurry to make bets and open new positions. Therefore, the end of August is likely to pass on lower volatility.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.54%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.70%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 1.17% on Wednesday. Shares of chip and semiconductor companies declined, dragging down the tech sector. Investors remain wary of making bullish bets on tech companies ahead of inflation data to be released today. The annualized inflation rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.0% to 3.3%, with core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) falling from 4.8% to 4.7%. Core inflation and services inflation will be the main focus of economists.

Moody's downgraded the credit ratings of several small and mid-sized US banks and said it may downgrade some of the nation's largest lenders. The agency warned that the sector's credit strength is likely to be tested by funding risks and declining profitability. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.79% on Tuesday.

Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) reported better-than-expected quarterly results on the back of strong results from its insurance companies, sending its share price up more than 3% on the report. Palantir (PLTR) shares were up more than 2% after the company released its second-quarter results. The company's revenue rose by 13% year-over-year to $533 million, slightly below the consensus estimate of $534.21 million.

At the close of the stock exchange on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.43% (-1.13% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.53% (-2.33% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.36% (-2.99% for the week). The weekly percentage declines for the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) were the largest since March as investors locked in profits. Rising Treasury bond yields, which are considered one of the safest investments in the world because the US government backs them, have dampened demand for stocks. Investor focus has now shifted to US inflation data this week. A decline in consumer prices could lead to more stock buying.

US Inflation data will remain central topics for investors this week

The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls labor market report will be released in the United States today. Over the past year, economists have consistently underestimated the strength of the economy, leading to a repeated underestimation of employment gains. Given this pattern and forecast bias, it is reasonable to believe that the NFP numbers could surprise upward again. US stock indices continued to decline yesterday. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.19%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.25%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.10%.

Fitch downgraded the US credit rating to AA+ from AAA due to the recent controversy over raising the national debt ceiling, the deteriorating balance of the US government budget, aggressive Fed interest rate hikes, and the continued high probability of recession. The US stock indices fell sharply yesterday on the back of strong labor market data and as Fitch Ratings downgraded the US credit rating. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.98%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 2.17% yesterday.

The US service sector continues to perform relatively strongly, but manufacturing is struggling, as evidenced by the ninth consecutive decline of the ISM index. At the same time, residential construction is picking up due to a shortage of homes for sale, and non-residential starts are struggling due to tighter credit conditions. The US stock indices were traded yesterday without any unified dynamics. At the close of the stock exchange yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) rose by 0.20%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.27%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday negative by 0.43%.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.28%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.21% on Monday. The Dow Jones Index closed higher for the second consecutive month. Investors are waiting for the US Federal Reserve to end its tightening cycle soon. But the market volatility indicator VIX, which is known in trading circles as the fear indicator, is still near this year's lows and at its lowest point since the global pandemic began in 2020. That means a correction could occur on stock indices in the near term.

Core PCE data is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. The 0.5% decline from the May reading only reinforced hopes that the Fed has likely ended the current rate hike cycle. Combined with labor costs rising at the slowest pace in two years, this may explain some of the weakness in the US Dollar late last week. There is a lot of US labor market data coming out this week, including the NFP report. This data will provide another snapshot of the state of the US economy. Average hourly earnings will again be a key indicator for the Fed, as strong wage growth has been cited as a problem in the ongoing fight against inflation.

Nonfarm payrolls report, Bank of England decision, and PMI data are the focus of the investors this week

The latest US GDP data showed that the economy grew by 2.4% for the second quarter after growing 2.0% in the first quarter. Analysts had expected growth of 1.8%. Gross Domestic Product increased due to solid consumer spending and robust business investment. Combined with other data showing stronger than expected durable goods orders and a decline in unemployment claims, boosted confidence that the Federal Reserve can curb inflation and avoid a recession.

The US Central Bank raised rates by 25 bps to 5.50%, the highest in 22 years. But the market was fully ready for such a decision, so there were no surprises here. The main focus of investors was directed to the FOMC press conference. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.02%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.12% on Wednesday.

The US consumer confidence rose to a two-year high in July on the back of a continued robust labor market and lower inflation, improving the economy's near-term outlook. The Consumer Confidence Index jumped to 117 in July from 110.1 in June. That's the highest level in two years. But consumers still fear a recession next year after the Federal Reserve sharply raised interest rates.

At Monday's close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) closed up by 0.52%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.40%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.19% on Monday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) extended its daily winning streak to its eleventh consecutive gain, helped by a rally in energy. Energy stocks were supported by a rise in oil prices to an April high amid bets that OPEC supply cuts will tighten market conditions.

At Friday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) closed at the opening level (+2.11% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.03% (+0.61% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.20% on Friday (-0.42% for the week). The Nasdaq's decline in recent days is attributed to the expiration of one-month options and the pending rebalancing of the multi-trillion dollar Nasdaq 100. In recent days, indices have begun to trade multi-directionally, indicating a rotation of funds between sectors. There is now a flow of funds from the technology sector into the banking and healthcare sectors.

This week's focus is on the US Fed, Eurozone ECB, and Japan BoJ meetings

Shares of Tesla (TSLA) fell more than 9% at the open yesterday and were on track for the biggest one-day percentage drop after the electric car maker reported second-quarter gross profit fell to a four-year low and CEO Elon Musk hinted at further price cuts. Netflix (NFLX) was down by 8% from the open after the streaming video company's quarterly revenue missed estimates. Analysts at Barclays raised their price target on shares of Nvidia (NVDA) by $100 to $600 per share ahead of its second-quarter earnings report. Barclays joined HSBC and Rosenblatt, who also raised their price targets. Analysts believe Nvidia could deliver another strong earnings report above expectations amid GenAI demand.

Investment bank Credit Suisse raised its year-end growth target for the S&P 500 (US500) from 4050 to 4700 points as the risk of a near-term recession in the US declines and forecasts larger earnings for major technology companies. The Index is now at 4545 points.

Morgan Stanley (MS) jumped by 6% after second-quarter results beat both top and bottom lines forecasts. Charles Schwab Corp (SCHW) topped the growth leaderboard, up more than 12% after posting better-than-expected quarterly results. Quarterly results from companies like Tesla (TSLA) and Netflix (NFLX) are expected today. Tesla's quarterly results will likely focus on margins following the electric carmaker's recent price cuts, while Netflix's quarterly results will focus investor attention on subscriber growth.

The Business Activity Index of New York State companies fell slightly in July, despite rising orders and easing inflationary pressures. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's General Business Conditions Index fell by 1.1 to 5.5 points. A value above zero indicates growth. The median forecast in a survey of economists suggested a drop of 3.5.

Rising interest rates, which surprised many US banks, proved to be a boon for the nation's largest banks. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) posted record profits, and some of its major competitors reported better-than-expected loan income. Shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM) rose by 0.6%, while Wells Fargo (WFC) fell by 0.3%. Both major banks reported higher quarterly earnings but said they set aside more funds to cover expected losses on commercial real estate loans. Friday's quarterly reports unofficially opened the second quarter in the US. According to Refintiiv, analysts expect S&P 500 earnings for the quarter to be down by 8.1% compared with a year ago result, but most companies are expected to beat expectations.

The focus this week is on the inflation data in the EU, UK, Canada, Japan, and New Zealand

Factory inflation (PPI) in the US declined over the past month, another sign that overall inflationary pressures are cooling. But the labor market remains resilient, and this could be a trigger for the US Fed to raise rates even higher. The US jobless claims fell by 12,000 to 237,000 over the past week.

Stock indices closed higher on Wednesday due to cooling inflation in the United States. The consumer price level fell from 4% to 3% (3.1% expected) on an annualized basis. Core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) fell from 5.3% to 4.8% (5.0% expected). The sharp drop in inflation caused the dollar to fall to a 15-month low. Dollar weakness led most risk currencies, gold, and stock indices to rally. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones (US30) Index was up by 0.25%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive 1.15% on Wednesday.

Today, the US will release inflation data for June. Inflation is expected to fall from 5.3% to 5.0% year-over-year. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is also expected to fall from 4% to 3.1% year-over-year. Although the issue of a rate hike at the July meeting is almost settled, traders are expecting a softer stance from the US Fed after the data release. Several Fed officials said yesterday that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, which sparked a rally in risk assets this week while also sending the dollar lower.

The US consumer credit growth slowed to a more than two-year low in May, reflecting the first decline in volume since the pandemic began. Total loans rose by $7.2 billion. This figure, which excludes inflation, was below all forecasts. While low unemployment and steady wage growth have allowed many consumers to continue spending, persistently high prices are forcing others to save.

The US labor market added 209,000 jobs in June, while the unemployment rate fell to 3.6% from 3.7%. This number is slightly below economists' expectations of 225,000 jobs. It's also a slowdown from the previous month's reading, which was revised downward by 33,000 to 306,000. But overall, despite some cooling, the labor market remains resilient. The Fed is keeping a close eye on labor market indicators and is concerned that demand for workers will drive more robust wage growth and, in turn, inflation. Therefore, the Fed wants to see an increase in unemployment first to end the tightening cycle.

The focus this week is on BOC and RBNZ Central Bank meetings as well as inflation data in the US, Germany, and China

Stronger-than-expected employment data from ADP reaffirmed fears of further interest rate hikes by Federal Reserve policymakers. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.07%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.79%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.82% on Thursday.

The US indices closed lower on Wednesday as minutes from the Federal Reserve's June meeting showed appetite for policy tightening and interest rate hikes. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.38%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative by 0.12% on Wednesday.

According to the OECD, inflation in advanced economies has slowed to its lowest since December 2021. Inflation has slowed in almost all countries except the Netherlands, Norway and the United Kingdom. In the G7 countries, inflation is now at 4.6%, the lowest level since September 2021. The figures show that core inflation remains steady, even though monetary officials make some progress in controlling consumer prices. Policymakers in advanced economies are still in a tightening mode, with both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank signaling another increase in borrowing costs this month.

The June US ISM manufacturing index was 46.0, below the consensus forecast of 47.1 and weaker than the May reading of 46.9. This is the worst reading since May 2020 and the eighth consecutive reading below 50 (the level between growth and contraction). Key subcomponents such as new orders, production, employment, and customer inventories are in decline. Absolutely all components of the index point to contraction. But the US Federal Reserve is still determined to raise rates further because the labor market and GDP are the main indicators of a slowing economy for the Central Bank.

On Friday, the PCE inflation rate, which is closely monitored by the US Central Bank, showed that price pressures are easing, fueling hopes that the Fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. Investor optimism improved, leading to active buying of stocks. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.84% (+2.01% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) jumped by 1.23% (+2.43% for the week). On Friday, the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.45% (+2.37% for the week).

This week's focus on Nonfarm Payrolls, FOMC, an RBA interest rate decision

Wells Fargo & Company (WFC), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), and Goldman Sachs Group Inc (GS) led the rally in the banking sector amid growing optimism after passing the stress tests. But analysts don't share that optimism, as there are big doubts that the nation's regional banks will be able to withstand the recession.

The US trade deficit narrowed by 6.1% to $91.1 billion from $97.1 billion in April. But even with the reduction in May, the trade deficit is up more than 10% since March. According to analysts, trade is likely to be a drag on US economic growth in the second quarter.

The US stock indices rose yesterday, helped by positive economic data. Durable goods orders rose by 1.7% in May, well above the expected 1% drop. The US new home sales rose in May to their highest level in more than a year, helped by limited inventory in the secondary market. Purchases of new single-family homes increased by 12.2% to 763,000 year-over-year. Consumer confidence also rose from 102.5 to 109.7 (forecast: 104), a 17-month-high. The US consumer confidence rose on the back of renewed optimism in the labor market. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was up by 0.63%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.15%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed yesterday positive by 1.65%.

Investors are now focused on the next interest rate move. While the Fed halted rate hikes this month, Chairman Jerome Powell said this does not mean the Central Bank is stopping further tightening, with the possibility of two more rate hikes this year, as the Fed is determined to get interest rates back on track to the 2% target rate.

Speaking last week in the House and Senate, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said that further rate hikes are likely in the coming months. After that, 10-year bond yields fell a full percentage point below 2-year rates, deepening the inversion of the yield curve that is usually seen as a harbinger of recession.

The focus is on ECB Forum as well as inflation data for the Eurozone, Canada, and Australia

The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Thursday that the Central Bank would raise interest rates at a "cautious pace" as policymakers near the end of their monetary tightening cycle. According to Powell, the "point" of keeping rates unchanged at last week's Fed meeting was precisely to slow the pace at which the Fed was raising borrowing costs. Investors now expect rate hikes to resume in July, with the Fed possibly assessing the need for further hikes every second meeting. But Powell said he shares his colleagues' broad economic outlook for moderate economic growth, a slight increase in unemployment, and a slow decline in inflation for the rest of the year.

The US stock indices closed lower on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statement to Congress reinforced the central bank's goal of curbing inflation. Powell said the Fed is at the end of its tightening cycle but also hinted at the possibility of further interest rate hikes at the July meeting. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.52%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed negative by 1.21% on Wednesday. All three major US stock indices declined for the third day straight.

The US single-family home construction jumped in May to its highest level in more than a year, and the number of permits issued for future construction also rose, indicating that the housing market is not yet feeling the pressure of high-interest rates and increasing the likelihood of another rate hike from the Fed. This sentiment is putting pressure on investors, so the stock market has seen profit-taking.

The US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken concluded his visit to Beijing on Monday with a surprise meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The latter stressed the importance of sustained relations between the two countries after a period of simmering tensions. During the meeting at the State Guest House, Xi said that the world needs a "generally stable" Sino-American relationship. Xi Jinping also added that the future and fate of humanity depend on whether the two countries can find the right path. The Chinese foreign minister also urged Washington to abandon the so-called "China threat theory" and lift sanctions against Beijing and no longer stifle China's technological development.

In the Eurozone, the inflation rate has not changed compared to the previous month. Consumer inflation remained at 6.1% y/y, while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) remained at 5.3% y/y. ECB spokesman Francois Villeroy de Galo said yesterday that ECB rates are already in restrictive territory. That means the ECB is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Most likely, the rate hike at the July or September meeting will be the last hike in this tightening cycle.

The focus this week is on speeches by US Fed officials, as well as central bank meetings of the UK, Switzerland, and China

he US Treasury bond yields fell after data showed that US jobless claims jumped to their highest level in nearly two years. Despite signs of a downturn in the labor market, the latest retail sales data, which were unexpectedly positive, suggests that the average consumer remains in good shape.

The US Federal Reserve expectedly left rates unchanged yesterday at 5.25% but predicted further increases at the next meetings. The Fed now sees its peak rate at 5.6% in mid-2023, up from its previous forecast of 5.1% in March, which suggests two more hikes.

The US consumer prices fell from 5.5% to 5.3% year-over-year. Core inflation fell sharply from 4.9% to 4%. This was the eleventh consecutive month of decline in overall inflation and the lowest level since early 2021, but it is still double the Fed's stated target of 2%. The US inflation data raised the odds of the Fed pausing to raise rates today from 81% to 93%. The US factory inflation (PPI) data will be released today.

At the close of the stock market yesterday the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.56%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.93%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed Monday positive 1.51%. Investors were confidently buying stocks yesterday ahead of important inflation data today. One of the main reasons for the buying is Goldman Sachs raised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 4500 points from 4000 points. Analysts believe that if incoming data for June and July show that US inflation will decline, there is a high probability that the Fed will finish raising rates this cycle.

At the stock market close on Friday the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.13% (+0.31% for the week) and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.11% (+0.37% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) on Friday closed positive by 0.16% (+0.16% for the week). The rally in US stocks shows signs of investor confidence that the US economy is holding up despite higher interest rates. Recession risks are declining. Some investors have begun to dive into economically sensitive market areas, including mid-cap and small-cap companies, energy and industrial stocks, not just "mega-companies." Stronger-than-expected job growth and solid consumer spending were among the indicators that bolstered investors' economic outlook. This week, investors will keep an eye on US inflation data as well as the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting.

Investors' attention this week is focused on BoC and RBA meetings as well as China inflation data

The US Jobless claims showed a sharp jump yesterday and spurred expectations of a Federal Reserve pause next week. This led to a drop in the dollar index and Treasury yields. Consequently, stock indices, which have an inverse correlation to the dollar index, got a boost. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.50%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 0.62%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 1.02% on Thursday.

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.27%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed negative 1.28% on Wednesday. According to analysts, hedge funds are fixing their positions on the last rally before the key economic and political events next week.

Apple Inc (AAPL) introduced an augmented reality headset called Vision Pro. But the stock has reacted negatively, as analysts are not convinced that the $3499 price tag will drive strong sales, especially at a time of declining economic activity. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) shares rose more than 4% after Piper Sandler raised its target share price to $150

The ISM Services PMI Index in the US showed a decline from 51.9 to 50.3. The ISM report for May adds to concerns about the outlook for the economy. According to analysts, the manufacturing sector is already in recession (seven consecutive ISM values for the manufacturing sector below 50). Given the current situation, it is hard to imagine that employment will be sustainable in the coming months. Skipping a rate hike at the next meeting would allow the US Fed to see more data. But markets doubt that if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) pauses at the June meeting, the Fed can justify resuming a rate hike in July.

The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the US economy added 339,000 jobs in May (forecast: 190K jobs, previous: 294K). The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% (forecast 3.5%, previous 3.4%). Year-over-year wage growth slowed to 4.3%. Fed officials are paying particularly close attention to these numbers ahead of the upcoming two-day meeting, which begins June 13. Labor market data came out mixed with signs of weakness. For the US Fed, this is a sign that interest rates are starting to have a negative effect on the labor market. The likelihood of a pause in June rose to 75% after the news was released. Fed Chairman Jefferson said that skipping a rate hike at the June meeting would give the Central Bank more time to evaluate the data, although it does not mean that rates have peaked. Philadelphia Fed Harker takes a similar view, reiterating that it will be a skip, not a pause.

Investors' attention this week is focused on BoC and RBA meetings as well as China inflation data

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.21%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) closed higher by 0.99%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.63% on Thursday. ADP private sector employment data in the US pleased a job growth of 278,000 (higher than expected), but wage growth is gradually slowing down. With the number of new jobless claims up slightly last week, the labor market remains resilient, which may encourage the Fed to keep raising rates. The focus now shifts to the Labor Department's unemployment report for May (Nonfarm Payrolls), which will be published today. The data will help determine whether the Fed will stick with an aggressive rate hike. The better the data comes out, the more likely a rate hike will be in June. A rate hike is positive for the dollar and negative for indices and gold, and vice versa.

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.41%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) closed lower by 0.61%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.63% on Wednesday. Yesterday the indices were under pressure from declines in consumer and technology stocks. There is also continued uncertainty in the vote on the debt ceiling bill. Most analysts anticipate approval of the bill, but the deadline is close. The US House of Representatives voted for a bill to suspend the debt ceiling late Wednesday night.

The leading Republican in Congress, Kevin McCarthy, on Tuesday urged his party to support a bipartisan deal to raise the $31.4 trillion US debt ceiling and avert a catastrophic default ahead of a procedural vote. Both Democratic President Joe Biden and House Speaker McCarthy predicted that they would get enough votes to pass the legislation by June 5. Despite the progress, several Republicans said they would resist the deal.

Famous investor Warren Buffett does not believe that Congress will be unable to raise the debt ceiling and the country will default. He compared the current standoff among lawmakers to the previous one, calling such a clash "an idiotic waste of time" and calling for a complete repeal of the borrowing limit. The CEO of Berkshire Hathaway (BRKb) said limiting the borrowing ceiling never made sense because the country's creditworthiness is growing as it grows economically.

After weeks of difficult negotiations, McCarthy and Biden reached a tentative agreement this weekend on raising the debt ceiling, but now they face the task of getting a deal through the Republican-controlled House and the Democrat-controlled Senate. And it needs to be done by June 5 to avoid a first-ever default in the nation's history. Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said Sunday that a majority of Republicans in the House would support the deal.

This week's focus is on Nonfarm Payrolls and the inflation rate in Europe

hares of NVIDIA (NVDA) surged by 27% to $956.52 billion, bringing its market capitalization close to $1 trillion, after reporting better-than-expected first-quarter results and forecasts that markedly beat Wall Street estimates. The chipmaker said it expects second-quarter revenue of about $11 billion, well above analysts' expectations of $7 billion, as the growing need for artificial intelligence supports the outlook for chip demand. Nvidia's record surge led Monolith Power Systems (MPWR), which provides power management solutions for some Nvidia chips, up by 16%, while Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) also got a boost.

The US stock indices ended Wednesday's trading in decline, as negotiations between the White House and Republican representatives to raise the US debt ceiling were seriously delayed. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.77%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.73%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.61% yesterday.

The US stock indices ended Tuesday with a negative result. By the close of trading on the stock market Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.69%, and S&P 500 (US500) was 1.12% lower. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.26% on Tuesday. Stock indices are down again due to growing concerns about the US default. Yesterday lawmakers concluded another round of debt ceiling talks without a deal. The lack of progress comes just days before June 1st, when the US may default on its debt. But it is worth realizing that the likelihood of default is low because such debates happen almost every year and every time politicians agree. But this time, the politicians really delayed the deadlines.

On Monday, Intel Corp. (INTC) revealed some new details about the artificial intelligence (AI) computing chip it plans to introduce in 2025. The company plans to radically change its development strategy to compete with Nvidia (NVDA) Corp. and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Inc. At a supercomputer conference in Germany on Monday, Intel said its future Falcon Shores chip would have 288 gigabytes of memory and support 8-bit floating-point computing. These specifications are important for artificial intelligence models like ChatGPT services.

Problems with the US debt ceiling were back in the spotlight late last week. Investors are scared by the likelihood of default if politicians can't reach an agreement. While the probability of such a scenario is low, the rise in the dollar last week showed how investors were buying dollars as a safe haven currency. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33% (+0.32% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.14% (+1.58% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down 0.24% on Friday (+2.90% for the week).

This week's focus is on the FOMC minutes, PMI data in Europe, and RBNZ interest rate decision

White House economic adviser Lael Brainard said Thursday that a default on the $31.4 trillion US debt would lead to a recession in the US economy. Brainard also pointed out that Biden's negotiating team has been instructed not to agree to any Republican proposal to raise the debt ceiling that would deprive Americans of health care or plunge any of them into poverty. Republicans, who are threatening to default on the government, are trying to convince Democrats to accept tougher job requirements for some federal aid programs, as well as cut spending in exchange for lifting the borrowing limit.

The US stock indices rose on Wednesday amid hopes that Congress will work out an agreement to raise the national debt ceiling, allowing the US to avoid defaulting on its obligations. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.24%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.19%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.28%. After yesterday's meeting, lawmakers expressed optimism that a default can be avoided. US President Biden will travel to Japan today for a meeting of G-7 world leaders, but he cut the rest of his trip to Asia while the debt ceiling problem persists.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.01%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.64%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday down by 0.18%. After disappointing quarterly results, falling shares of Home Depot put pressure on shares. Home Depot (HD) stock fell more than 2% after reporting quarterly earnings that fell short of Wall Street expectations due to falling lumber prices. Retailer sentiment was also hurt by US retail sales data that fell short of expectations, signaling weaker consumer sentiment. The energy sector was the biggest headwind for the overall market, as weaker-than-expected economic data from China overshadowed expectations for higher energy demand.

At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.14%, and the S&P 500 (US500) was up by 0.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed yesterday positive by 0.66%. Reports of progress in the debt ceiling negotiations fuel investor optimism that US lawmakers can break the current impasse and agree to increase the federal budget and prevent the United States from defaulting on its debt. President Biden is scheduled to meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other congressional leaders today.

At the closing of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.03% (-0.23% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.16% (-0.31% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.32% on Friday (+0.43% for the week). Friday's data, which showed a sharper-than-expected drop in consumer sentiment in the United States, heightened fears that the political debate over raising the debt ceiling could trigger a recession. Republicans are pushing for steep spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt ceiling, while Democrats are pointing out that the debt ceiling is not an appropriate vehicle for budget changes.

Investors' focus this week is on inflation and GDP data for major economies, as well as central bankers' speeches

At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.66%, while the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.17%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.18% on Thursday. The US indices continued to decline yesterday due to ongoing problems at regional banks. PacWest Bancorp shares fell by 22% after reports that the bank's deposits decreased by 9.5% in the week ended May 5, continuing fears of a deeper banking crisis.

The US Consumer Price Index rose by 0.4% last month, but a deeper look at the data showed a slowdown in core services inflation. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of a Fed pause in June rose from 79% to 96%. But analysts at Morgan Stanley don't share that and believe that a slight rise in core inflation with a significant slowdown in core services should prompt the Fed to leave the door open for a June hike. While US inflation fell more than expected annually, there are concerns that the impact of higher interest rates on the US economy is only now beginning to show. And the dynamics of the stock indices show it well. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.24%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.63% on Wednesday.

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.17%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.46%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.63% on Tuesday. Discussions over the US debt limit dampened investor sentiment as there was no progress on preventing a US default before the anticipated June 1 deadline.

Goldman Sachs joins Barclays in predicting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates significantly this year. But the latest futures position data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that hedge funds expect the Fed to keep rates higher longer.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.65% (-1.30% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 1.85% (-0.73% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.25% on Friday (+0.21% for the week). Investor fears that the economy is headed for a recession in the second half of the year bolstered bets that interest rates will soon decline.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.65% (-1.30% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was up by 1.85% (-0.73% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.25% on Friday (+0.21% for the week). Investor fears that the economy is headed for a recession in the second half of the year bolstered bets that interest rates will soon decline.

Investors' attention this week is focused on US inflation data as well as BoE Interest Rate Decision.

The US stock indices fell again Tuesday as the banking crisis continues. The KBW regional banking index fell more than 6% to its lowest level since November 2020. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 1.08%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.16% at the stock market's close. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 1.08% yesterday.

The US stock indices fell again Tuesday as the banking crisis continues. The KBW regional banking index fell more than 6% to its lowest level since November 2020. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 1.08%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.16% at the stock market's close. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 1.08% yesterday.

The US stock indices fell again Tuesday as the banking crisis continues. The KBW regional banking index fell more than 6% to its lowest level since November 2020. The Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 1.08%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.16% at the stock market's close. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 1.08% yesterday.

The US manufacturing activity declined for the sixth straight month in April, the longest period since 2009 and a sign of trouble in the manufacturing sector. Order numbers improved slightly but remained in contractionary territory. The good news is that the numbers show that the manufacturing sector is contracting at a slower pace. At the same time, manufacturers face many challenges, including higher borrowing costs, tighter credit conditions, lower demand for goods and still higher prices. A senior portfolio manager at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. believes Monday's PMI data bolstered expectations for a 25 basis point increase in Federal Reserve interest rates in May and the likelihood of a June increase.

The Personal Consumption Price (PCE) Index, excluding food and energy, the Fed's preferred measure of core inflation, was up 0.3% in March from the previous month. The PCE price data, especially with rising labor costs, support projections that Fed policymakers will raise the benchmark interest rate by another quarter percentage point at this week's meeting. Fed officials and markets remain at odds over the future trajectory of interest rates, with the Central Bank expecting interest rates to remain at current levels through 2023, while investors are betting on lower rates by the end of the year. Given renewed signs of stress in the banking sector in recent days, as well as problems at First Republic Bank (FRC), Fed officials may signal a pause in June.

Fed rate hike, Nonfarm payrolls report, ECB decision, and earning season are in the focus of the investors this week

The Nasdaq Technology Index led a rally on Wall Street Thursday as a strong report from parent company Facebook (META) outweighed concerns about slowing US economic growth. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.57%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.96%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.43%.

Stronger-than-expected reports from tech companies Microsoft (MSFT) and Google Alphabet (GOOGL) helped improve investor sentiment in the tech sector. But weak economic data exacerbated recession fears in the world's largest economy as rising recession risks threaten consumer spending. At the close of the stock market on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.68%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.47% yesterday.

The US stock indices fell yesterday amid disappointing consumer confidence data and weak company reports. The Conference Board survey showed that consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low. It should be noted that household consumption is the main driver of US gross domestic product. The US Federal Reserve Richmond's Manufacturing Index also fell to minus 10 in April, the fourth consecutive month of decline. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.98% yesterday.

At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.20%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.29% yesterday. A Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago survey showed that the index, used to estimate economic conditions, declined by 29 points between March and April. This indicates that most respondents are pessimistic about the future. More than half - about 65% - said they expect economic activity to decline over the next 12 months.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.06% (-0.32% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.09% (-0.25% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.11% on Friday (-0.30% for the week). Stock indices remain under pressure from high rates. The US Federal Reserve is 90% likely to raise interest rates by 0.25% at its May meeting. As of April 21, 18% of companies in the S&P 500 Index reported actual results for Q1 2023, of which 63% reported actual earnings above estimates. Many important US macro statistics will be released this week, and the tech giants (AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL, AMZN, META) will also report, which will be a key test for the stock market. Investors have gravitated toward tech stocks this year, believing that the Fed will soon stop raising interest rates and that the sector will remain resilient as growth slows. Reports will show if this is true.

Investors' focus this week is on Bank of Japan meetings, US PCE data, and the US and European reporting season

At the close of the US stock market on Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.60%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.80% yesterday. Sentiment for risky assets, including stocks, worsened due to recent economic data showing further weakness in manufacturing and an increase in jobless claims. The weaker data exacerbated fears of a deeper economic slowdown at a time when the Federal Reserve continues to be inclined to raise rates further.

At Wednesday's US stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.23%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.35%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.03% yesterday. Stock indices remain under pressure due to recession fears and rate hikes. At the same time, the reporting season so far shows no signs of confidence.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.03% at Tuesday's close of the stock market, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.09%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.04% yesterday. Concerns about interest rate hikes have returned to the markets in recent sessions as hawkish signals from Fed officials and signs of some resilience in the US economy have created uncertainty about when the Fed will suspend its rate hike cycle. Traders expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points at its May meeting and bring the rate to a restrictive level of 5.25%.

At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.33%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.28% yesterday. But despite the gains in the indices, sentiment for growth sectors, including technology, was dampened by a jump in Treasury yields amid growing fears of further Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Short-term inflation expectations in the US jumped to a nearly two-year high at the start of April on the back of higher gas prices, but consumer sentiment did rise. These patterns show that consumers are fully aware that inflation is down from its peak, but high prices still make them feel less financially secure. Despite the minutes of the central bank's March meeting acknowledging an increased risk of recession later this year, most investors are betting that the Fed will still raise rates by another 25 basis points at its next policy meeting on May 3rd.

Investors focus this week on inflation data in major countries as well as the US and European reporting season

The US jobless claims rose to 239,000. This is the first increase in 3 weeks. Jobless claims in February fell to their lowest level since 2021, and labor force participation rose in March to its highest level in three years. This data indicates that the labor market is starting to weaken. The Producer Price Index, which shows the inflation rate between factories and factories, fell by 0.5% in the last month, indicating lower inflationary pressures in the US. Analysts believe the Federal Reserve may take a less aggressive stance on the monetary policy along with falling overall inflation. Minutes from the Fed's March meeting showed that the Central Bank expects recent bank turmoil to trigger a "soft recession" later this year.

The US Consumer Price Index declined from 6% to 5% year-on-year. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) rose from 5.5% to 5.6% y/y, with the Index adding 0.4% for the month. This data disappointed investors as the key inflation indicator shows no signs of slowing down, which increases the likelihood of another interest rate hike by the Fed. CME FedWatch Tool shows a 68% probability that the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% at the May meeting. Comments from FOMC officials diverge. The US stock market was mostly down yesterday. At the close of trading, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.11%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.41%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.85%.

The US stock market traded without a single trend yesterday. At the close of trading, Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.29%, S&P 500 (US500) closed at opening levels. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.43%. At the moment, the situation in the US stock market is mixed. Investors are waiting for the US inflation report and the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes. These two reports will explain the US Federal Reserve's future policy. Rising core inflation and hawkish FOMC minutes could add confidence to the dollar as it increases the likelihood of another 0.25% interest rate hike at the May 3 meeting. Conversely, lower inflationary pressures, along with non-hawkish FOMC minutes, could trigger a sell-off in the dollar.

The US stock market traded yesterday without a single trend. At the close of trading, Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.30%, S&P 500 (US500) added 0.10%. But NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.03%. The minutes of the Fed's March meeting are due on Wednesday and are expected to provide more information on the Central Bank's plans to raise interest rates in the face of a potential banking crisis. While the collapse of several US banks in March has spurred bets that the Fed will slow the pace of interest rate hikes, markets are now preparing for at least one more increase in May (80% probability).

A Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday showed that US nonfarm payrolls rose by 236,000 in March, in line with a forecast of 239,000. February's data was revised upwards. 326,000 jobs were added instead of 311,000. The US unemployment rate fell to a record low of 3.5%. At the same time, annual payrolls rose at the slowest rate since June 2021. Although the employment report showed significant growth, some sectors saw moderate declines, particularly manufacturing, and construction. But overall, such data leaves the US Federal Reserve with room for another rate hike at the next meeting. The market currently estimates a 70% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points in May. The US stock indices did not trade on Friday due to the holidays. By the end of the week, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.77%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 1.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.47% in 5 days.

The US inflation data and FOMC minutes will be in focus this week

Weekly jobless claims in the US are falling. Initial jobless claims fell by 18,000 in the last week from 246,000, exceeding economists' forecast of 200,000 applications and reinforcing expectations of a cooling labor market. An important monthly labor market report will be released today, namely the change in nonfarm payrolls. Analysts forecast that the US economy will add 238,000 jobs in March after an increase of 311,000 in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a low of 3.6%. With low liquidity due to the closure of other financial exchanges in Asia and Europe (Good Friday holiday), this report could cause a significant spike in volatility.

In the United States, the ISM manufacturing and services business activity index fell short of expectations in March, indicating a clear deterioration in demand conditions. If the business activity does not recover soon, layoffs could accelerate in the coming months, exacerbating labor market problems and pushing the country into a painful recession. The ADP National Employment report showed that US private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, adding to the signs of a cooling labor market after Tuesday's weak jobs data. Stock indices are once again under pressure. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.24%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.25%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.07% yesterday.

According to the monthly JOLTS report, the number of job openings, a measure of labor demand, fell by 632,000 to 9.9 million in February, the lowest since May 2021. This is a direct sign of a slowing labor market, reinforcing investors' bets that the Federal Reserve will end its tightening cycle and fueling recession fears. The US factory orders also declined for the second straight month, a 0.7% decrease in February after falling by 2.1% in January. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.59%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.59% at the close of the stock market on Tuesday. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.52% yesterday.

The US stock indices were mostly up on Monday as energy stocks rose on higher oil prices after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) unexpectedly cut oil production by 1 million BPD. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.98%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.37%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.27% yesterday.

The Fed's preferred measure of inflation, the PCE Core Price Index (personal consumption expenditures excluding home prices), fell on an annualized basis from 5.3% to 5.0%. Signs of a slowdown in inflation have reinforced the hopes of the Federal Reserve to end its aggressive rate hikes soon. This bolstered confidence in stock indices. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.26% (+ 3.09% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.44% (+ 3.17% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.74% (+2.98% for the week). The Nasdaq recorded its biggest quarterly percentage gain since June 2020.

This week's main events are the US Nonfarm Payrolls report and interest rate decisions from the RBNZ and RBA

The US GDP for the first quarter of 2023 rose by 2.6%, indicating a resilient economy. The US jobless claims rose by 7,000 in the last week (forecast 5,000) to 198,000. The level remains extremely low, but analysts predict a sharp increase in the second quarter. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin said Thursday that he has not yet concluded what rate hike might be appropriate for the May meeting. According to the politician, there is a lot of uncertainty about how the bank situation affects consumer confidence, the business climate, business investment, consumer spending, and the availability of credit.

The US stock indices rose sharply on Wednesday as concerns about stress in the banking sector eased, while upbeat earnings reports and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve will halt interest rate hikes further boosted sentiment. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.00%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.79%.

The US indices fell on Tuesday under pressure from rising Treasury yields amid signs that consumers remain optimistic. If the consumer confidence index is rising, it indicates the economy is not all bad, which in turn could increase the likelihood of another rate hike by the US Fed. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.12%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.45% on Tuesday.

In the run-up to the European session yesterday, there was news about the sale of Silicon Valley Bank to another bank, First Citizens Bancshares, one of the most prominent regional banks in the United States, which could become one of the top 20 banks in the United States. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) has confirmed that all of SVB's deposits and branches will go under the new management. Shares of Citizens Bancshares jumped by 53% yesterday. The deal helped calm investor fears about the banking crisis. There are also hopes for additional support for bank financing as the US authorities are discussing expanding emergency lending facilities. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.60%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.16%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) decreased by 0.47% on Monday.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points last week, in line with expectations, but signaled that the hike cycle might be coming to an end in response to nervousness about US banks after the unexpected collapse of two medium-term regional small banks. According to analysts, the turmoil in the banking sector, which caused turmoil on Wall Street earlier this month, is likely to lead to a credit crunch for households and businesses in the coming months, creating a meaningful process of disinflation. This will ease the pressure on the central bank, limiting the need for overly restrictive policies. The economy does not yet reflect the real problems that will result from a significant tightening of lending standards, but the negative effects will soon become visible.

The main events this week will be inflation data in Europe and Australia, as well as the situation in the banking sector

At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.30%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.01%. Investors are still trying to understand why the Fed keeps raising rates when risks in the financial sector have risen. According to a new batch of published Fed projections, interest rates will peak this year at 5.1%, which implies another rate hike. The Fed Funds rate futures now indicate mixed expectations for the next FOMC meeting on May 3. They imply the likelihood of either a pause in rate hikes or another quarter percentage point increase.

On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.25% to 5% and maintained its outlook for another increase this year. Treasury yields rebounded from session lows, and interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the market, including technology, lost momentum. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.63%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.60%.

Concerns about problems in the banking sector are easing. The US First Republic Bank (FRC) shares jumped about 30% yesterday after US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US government would be willing to step in and support smaller banks. Other regional banks also rose sharply on the news. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) Increased by 0.98%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.06%.

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.20%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.32% yesterday. The US Federal Reserve said late last week that it would work with other major central banks to provide liquidity to the global banking sector. Certainly, this has brought some optimism back to the stock market. But that could easily dissipate if the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates on Wednesday and hints at further policy tightening.

The US dollar came under pressure last week, falling about 0.8%, which was caused by a sharp drop in US bond yields. Traders and investors reassessed the Federal Reserve's monetary policy in the US in the face of turmoil in the banking sector. Rates shifted dovish after the collapse of two mid-sized US regional banks heightened fears of financial Armageddon, prompting the Fed to take emergency measures to support depository institutions facing liquidity shortages. Late last week, the Fed injected $4.4 trillion into the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) to help banks. Many analysts consider this a hidden "quantitative easing" (QE). At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.19% (+0.13% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.10% (+2.13% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.74% on Friday (+5.33% for the week).

The focus this week is on the Fed's interest rate decision, as well as inflation data in major economies

The US indices rose Thursday after reports that major Wall Street banks pledged billions of dollars to bail out First Republic Bank. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Bank of America Corp (BAC), and Wells Fargo & Company (WFC) led a group of major banks that will rescue First Republic Bank (FRC) deposits totaling $30 billion. As the stock market closed on Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.17%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.76%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.48% yesterday.

The released US producer price index data came in better than expected. Factory inflation decreased by 0.1% last month. Markets reacted with a drop in US Treasury bond yields. This indicates an impending change in the Fed's rhetoric and the imminent end of the rate hike cycle. Federal funds futures show a 40% probability that the rate will remain unchanged at the March 22 meeting and a 60% probability that 25 bps will raise the rate to the 5.00% level. At the same time, it is expected that the maximum rates will be formed already at the next meeting, and by the end of 2023, the Fed will cut the rate to 3.75%. At the close of the stock market on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down by 0.87%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.70%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.05% yesterday.

Inflationary pressures in the United States are easing. The latest data showed that consumer prices fell from 6.4% to 6.0% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) has declined from 5.6% to 5.5%. This raises the possibility of a small interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve next week. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.06%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.14% yesterday.

The Federal Reserve will lend one year's worth of securities portfolios to banks under a new term financing program for banks, eliminating the risk that banks could be forced to sell their $4.4 trillion in government securities at a loss. Meanwhile, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) will safeguard all depositors of SVB, as well as depositors of Signature Bank of New York, closed by New York State because of "systemic risk." According to politicians, these actions will reduce the burden on the financial system and support financial stability. Thus, US authorities are trying to avoid the risks of the 2008 crisis. But for investors and hedge funds, such actions were not so convincing. By the close of the stock market on Monday, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.28%, S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.45% yesterday.

SVB shares fell by 44% on Friday, adding to a 60% drop in the previous session. Meanwhile, larger US banks JPMorgan (JPM), Citigroup (C), and Morgan Stanley (MS) were also down. The fall of SVB shares, which began on Thursday, spread to other American and European banks. According to Reuters, US banks lost more than $100 billion in the stock market, and European banks lost another $50 billion over the past two trading days. This has caused panic among investors, and that panic could intensify if people start withdrawing their deposits from banks on Monday, fearing a 2008 scenario. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.07% (-4.53% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.45% (-4.77% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.76% on Friday (-5.09% for the week).

Investors focus this week on the banking system situation, as well as inflation data in the United States and Europe

Yesterday, the US stock indices fell sharply, mainly due to falling banking sector shares. Shares of SVB Financial Group (SIVB) fell more than 55% after the bank disclosed a net loss of $1.8 billion and gave a negative outlook for the year on the impact of higher interest rates. SVB Financial Group said it was taking aggressive measures to shore up its balance sheet, including selling shares and liquidating its securities portfolio. The SIVB's fall has dampened sentiment toward bank stocks, which have been pressured by a deeper inversion of the yield curve, a harbinger of recession. As the stock market closed Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.66%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.85%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.05%.

Analysts and investors struggled to find a reason to be optimistic about stocks yesterday. Still, stock indices remained under pressure Wednesday amid lingering fears of renewed aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The latest labor market data showed that private-sector job gains in February exceeded economists' estimates, increasing the likelihood that the Fed will be forced to accelerate the rate hikes at its March meeting. The probability of a return to raising rates by 50 basis points at the Fed meeting on March 21-22 rose to 80% compared to 71% the day before. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.18%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.40%.

The stock market fell on Tuesday as hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell increased the odds that the Fed will return to an aggressive rate hike course.he likelihood of a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the March 21-22 Fed meeting jumped to nearly 70% from 24% the day before. The hawkish statements pushed Treasury yields higher, with 2-year bond yields exceeding 5% for the first time since 2007. The rise in yields led to a sharp rise in the dollar index and a decline in the major indices. At the close of the stock market on Tuesday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.72%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 1.53%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.25%.

The US Treasury yields rose yesterday ahead of Powell's speech to Congress, which could give clues as to the US Federal Reserve's future monetary policy. Investors and funds are starting to hedge and close their trades after the good rally in the last days of last week. At the close of the stock market on Monday, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.12%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.07%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 0.11%.

The recent string of strong economic data has caused investors to rethink how much more Fed tightening is needed to slow the economy significantly. Investors have begun to realize that the Fed will stop raising rates probably before early summer, and the current price levels in the stock market are a great opportunity to buy or average portfolios. This caused the indices to rise sharply at the end of last week. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.17% (+1.47% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.61% (+1.33% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.97% on Friday (+1.49% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) broke a three-week losing streak, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) posted its first weekly gain since late January.

This week the focus is on meetings of the central banks of Japan, Australia, and Canada, as well as data on US nonfarm payrolls

The US Treasury bond yields fell sharply yesterday after Atlanta Federal Reserve President Rafael Bostic ruled out a return to more aggressive Fed rate hikes and said the central bank would suspend its tightening efforts by mid to late summer. This brought optimism back to the stock market. As the stock market closed Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.76%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed positive by 0.73%.

According to ISM, the US Manufacturing Activity Index rose from 47.4 to 47.7 in February, slightly below expectations of 48.0. To understand what this index shows - any value above 50 signals growth in the sector, while values below this threshold indicate a contraction. The US manufacturing activity index has remained in falling territory for the fourth consecutive month, a sign that the economic outlook is challenging amid persistently high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. While the manufacturing sector has been in recession since last November, the jump in prices suggests that inflation is likely to remain resilient in the coming months, raising the risk that the Fed could raise its final rate in its efforts to restore price stability.

The US CB consumer confidence index declined for the second month in a row, a sign that Americans are becoming more pessimistic about economic prospects amid persistently high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. Looking at the individual components of the report, the current situation index, based on business and labor market assessments, rose to 152.8 from 151.1. Still, the expectation indicator, which tracks short-term income prospects, the business environment, and job opportunities, fell sharply to 69.7 from 76.00. Over the past few weeks, markets have overestimated the Fed's monetary policy outlook upward because of solid economic data, but expectations could soon change if falling confidence causes a significant decline in consumer spending.

The latest economic data showed that durable goods orders fell by 4.5%, more than the expected 3.7%. This data has somewhat lessened the nervousness about the impending interest rate hike. As the stock market closed on Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.22%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.31%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.63%.

The January PCE data released Friday, one of the Fed's favorite inflation indicators, showed an unexpected increase in price pressures. The PCE index rose by 0.6% in the last month, and the annual rate was 5.4%. This is negative data, indicating that inflationary pressures remain high. Thus, Fed policymakers have no choice but to maintain an aggressive stance longer. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.02 (-2.55% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.05% (-2.63% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.69% on Friday (-3.25% for the week).

Focus this week on inflation in the Eurozone and Australia, as well as manufacturing PMI data in major economies

The US Commerce Department reported Thursday that the US economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.7% in the latest quarter. That's down from the previous estimate of 2.9% growth. Slower growth in Gross Domestic Product, a broad measure of economic activity, may be a sign that a series of sharp interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve has a greater impact than previously thought. This has eased investor fears about the Fed's aggressive willingness to raise rates further. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.33%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.53%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.72%.

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's February meeting contained no new hawkish statements but added to expectations that further interest rate hikes are necessary to control inflation. 10-year Treasury yields closed near their daily highs after the minutes were released, sending the dollar index higher and stock indices lower. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.26%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.16% on Wednesday at the close of the stock market. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.13%. A stronger-than-expected earnings outlook from Nvidia helped tech stocks, especially chipmakers.

The US stock market ended Tuesday's trading lower amid negative dynamics from the consumer services, technology, and industrial sectors. Concerns over higher interest rates were again the main cause for concern. At Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.06%, and the S&P 500 (US500) lost 2.00%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.50% yesterday.

The US stock market did not trade yesterday because of the holiday. Stock index futures traded in the European session, but there were no significant movements. The price traded in a narrow price range due to low volatility. Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, said over the weekend that it was launching a paid subscription service that would offer features such as account verification, a move the company said would protect content generators.

Since the release of PPI inflation data on Thursday, fears of the US Federal Reserve returning to a more aggressive pace of rate hikes have returned to financial markets, especially given the strong labor market and GDP growth. All of this was fueled by relevant comments from Fed officials. Cleveland Fed Chair Loretta Mester said Thursday that US interest rates would have to rise above 5% and stay there for a long time to keep inflation down significantly. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard, often considered the most hawkish official at the central bank, also said Thursday that he supports further rate hikes. Bullard added that he would support a 50 basis point increase at the next Fed meeting on March 22. As a result, the US stock market came under pressure late last week. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.39% (-0.18% week-to-date), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.28% (-0.43% week-to-date). NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.58% on Friday (+0.24% for the week).

This week's focus is on FOMC minutes, inflation data, and a speech by the new BOJ governor

In the US, the Producer Price Index (PPI), which shows the rate of inflation between factories and plants, rose by 0.7% over the past month. Meanwhile, initial jobless claims fell again, indicating a strong and resilient labor market. Fed officials are once again scaring investors into returning to more rate hikes as demand does not decline. St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said yesterday that the prospect of the Fed returning to more rate hikes is not out of the table. Bullard's comments echoed those of Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, who said she saw a compelling case for a 0.5% rate hike at the last Fed meeting. Treasury yields jumped on these statements, which led to a decline in rising sectors of the market, including consumer and technology. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.26%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.78%.

The US dollar continued rising after strong retail sales data, which, together with CPI data, opened the door to further rate hikes by the US Central Bank. But stock indices rose along with the dollar yesterday, which is rare since, most of the time, these instruments are inversely correlated. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.11, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.28%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.92%.

The US indices traded yesterday without a single dynamic. By the close of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) Index decreased by 0.46%, S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.57%. The latest consumer price data showed that the US inflation rate fell from 6.5% to 6.4% (forecast 6.2%) annually, with core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also falling from 5.7% to 5.6% (forecast 5.5%). Inflationary pressures are declining, but not as quickly as the US Fed would like. Because of this, expectations for the Fed's final interest rate may rise slightly, which would create a favorable environment for the US dollar and government bonds and an unfavorable situation for stock indices. The prospect of higher interest rates also increases the likelihood of a US recession this year, as rising short-term yields reflect investor fears of slower economic growth.

The Federal Reserve may have to keep raising interest rates to curb price increases, which could slow economic growth and affect the labor market, FOMC spokeswoman Michelle Bowman said yesterday. Bowman noted that continued labor market tightness is putting upward pressure on inflation, even if some components of inflation are declining because of improved supply factors. Officials in December projected that rates would peak at 5.1% this year, according to their average forecast. But they will update those estimates next month. Such comments did not affect investor sentiment to buy stocks. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.11, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.48%.

Last week, the Nasdaq recorded its first weekly decline of the year. After a strong report on nonfarm payrolls and data from ISM in service sectors, investors concluded that the US economy remains resilient, and interest rates are pricing in a "higher for the longer term" scenario. Such market conditions create an environment of uncertainty for investors, which limits growth potential. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.50 (-0.02% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.22% (-0.71% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.61% on Friday (-1.56% for the week).

This week's focus is on inflation data in the United States and Great Britain, as well as the name of the new Governor of the Bank of Japan

On Thursday, Federal Reserve officials continued to impose their hawkish message on the market. The main message from policymakers is that further rate hikes are not far off and that the rate should remain high for an extended period. While there is nothing new in these comments, the 2-10 Treasury yield curve has flipped by 85 basis points, the deepest inversion since the early 1980s, raising new fears about economic problems. As the stock market closed Thursday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.73%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.02% yesterday.

On Wednesday, many Federal Reserve officials stressed the need for further rate hikes because of concerns that a strong labor market could pave the way for inflation. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.61%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.11%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.68%.

The stock market yesterday was tossing from one side to the other, digesting comments of the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell. As a result, Mr. Powell did not give any new clues. The Fed still sees the need for further rate hikes in the fight against inflation, which is likely to be protracted. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.78%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.29%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.90% yesterday.

At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.38%, and the S&P 500 (US500) was down by 1.04%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 1.00% yesterday. The stock market continues to be influenced by Friday's news. Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic said Monday that given the unexpectedly strong job growth data in January, the US Federal Reserve might need to raise the cost of borrowing higher. Today, investors are awaiting a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, where they will be looking for clues as to the US Central Bank's future actions.

Friday's US jobs report caused investors to revise their expectations of how hawkish the Fed might be in its efforts to rein in inflation. Nonfarm payrolls showed 517K (forecast 190K, previous 223K). The unemployment rate fell to 3.4% (forecast 3.6%, previous 3.5%). Very strong labor market data leaves the US Fed with more leeway to keep raising rates. Investors are concerned that excessive Fed rate hikes will cause a recession in the economy. That's why such labor market data caused a sell-off in the stock market. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.38% (+0.05% for the week), while the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.04% (+2.15% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.59% (+4.30% for the week).

This week, investors will focus on the RBA meeting, UK GDP, and speeches by central bank officials

Investors are investing in tech stocks after the Meta rally. The artificial intelligence technology boom in recent months has forced investors to pour money into technology. The market has also been helped by renewed confidence that the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates sooner than originally planned.The US stock markets continued their rally yesterday. By Thursday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.11%, while the S&P 500 (US500) gained 1.48%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 3.25%.

The Federal Reserve raised its interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday but indicated that it expects more hikes in the future. The Fed is planning two more 0.25% rate hikes in March and May, but analysts doubt the Fed needs to go that high, especially since inflation is slowing and there are early warning signs in the labor market.The US stock markets rose yesterday amid a slowdown in the rate hike. At the close of the stock market on Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.02%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.05%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.00% yesterday.

The US stock markets rose yesterday. At the close of the stock market on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.09%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.46%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.67%. Investors have been evaluating a lot of companies' results, and they have generally been better than expected. But US economic indicators continue to decline. Consumer confidence fell from 109 to 107.1 in January, with the report indicating that consumers have become less optimistic about job prospects and expect a softening of business conditions in the near future.

The new week started with a more cautious mood in the markets. Stock indices closed lower on Monday as investors refused to buy stocks ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision and further quarterly earnings. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.77%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.96% yesterday.

The latest inflation data showed an improvement in the trajectory of core commodity prices and rate-sensitive components. The Fed's favorite measure of Core PCE inflation fell from 4.7% to 4.4%, reinforcing the sense that interest rates are nearing a peak. Now the focus of policymakers has shifted to rebalancing the labor market and taking all measures to bring inflation to the target level. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.08% (+1.61% for the week), and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.25% (+2.32% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.95% on Friday (+4.03% for the week).

The week promises to be a busy one, with the world's three largest Central Banks meeting on policy issues

According to the US Commerce Department, gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 2.9% in the latest quarter, less than the 3.2% quarter before but more than the market estimate of 2.6%. But a more detailed report shows signs of slowing growth. While consumer spending maintained a solid growth rate, most of the increase in consumption came at the start of the fourth quarter. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.10%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.76% yesterday.

The US reporting season continues to gain momentum. Tesla (TSLA) had a great fourth quarter thanks to a 37% increase in revenue. Tesla stated that under any scenario, they are prepared for short-term uncertainty but are focused on the long-term potential of autonomy, electrification, and energy solutions. IBM Corporation (IBM) on Wednesday reported its highest annual revenue growth in a decade and beat Wall Street expectations for the fourth quarter. The company also projected year-over-year revenue growth. But despite the good report, the company's stock fell on the release of the report. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.03%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.02%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.18% yesterday.

In the technology sector, gains in Apple (AAPL) stocks were offset by declines in Alphabet (GOOGL) stock. The US Department of Justice filed a lawsuit against Google, claiming that the search engine giant violated the antitrust laws by abusing its monopoly in advertising technology. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT), which ended the day just below opening levels, rose by 4% on the release of its report. The company's quarterly earnings beat Wall Street estimates. The US reporting season continues to gain momentum, but indices are reacting sluggishly. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.31%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.07%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.27%.

Barclays Bank upgraded AMD (AMD), Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM), and NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) forecasts, raising shares by more than 9%, 6%, and 7%, respectively. The US indices closed higher on Monday as shares of major technology companies and chipmakers were on the upside ahead of reports from tech giants. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.73%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.19%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.01% yesterday.

The US government reached its $31.4 trillion borrowing limit on Thursday amid a spat between uncompromising Republicans and Democrats over raising the nation's debt ceiling. But traders can be sure the politicians will eventually agree because they have no choice. It happens every year, and this time is no exception. At the close of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.00% (-2.05% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.89% (+0.30% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.66% on Friday (+2.15% for the week).

The focus this week is on inflation in Asian countries, the BoC meeting, and PMI business activity in major economies

The US stock indices continued their decline yesterday. Quarterly results fell short of estimates, with increasing negativity that the Federal Reserve will remain hawkish for a long time as the labor market shows little sign of easing. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.76%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.76%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.96% on Thursday.

The US Producer Price Index (PPI) fell more than expected in December. This data shows the rate of inflation between factories and plants. The lower PPI puts more pressure on the Fed to slow the pace of interest rate hikes. But despite the easing of inflationary pressures, the US indices declined yesterday. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.81%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.56%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.24% on Wednesday.

The Empire State Manufacturing Index, which measures activity in New York State, fell to 32.9 in January, the worst reading since the pandemic. The US indices traded yesterday without a single trend. At yesterday's stock market close, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 1.14%, and S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.14% on Tuesday.

The US stock market did not trade yesterday due to the holiday. But futures on indices traded in the European and partly in the US session. By the close of the futures market on Monday, the indices were down a bit, so the stock market's opening on Tuesday will be accompanied by a price gap. Traders should not forget that it is the earnings season in the United States. Such companies as Morgan Stanley (MS), Goldman Sachs (GS), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) are reporting today.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.40% (+1.90% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.40% (+2.26% for the week) at the close of the stock market on Friday. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.71% on Friday (+3.91% for the week). All three indices closed in positive territory on last week's results.

The focus this week is on the Bank of Japan meeting and inflation data for the major economies

The US consumer price index fell from 7.1% to 6.5% (forecast 6.5%) on an annualized basis. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also slowed year over year from 6% to 5.7% (5.7% forecast). Lower inflationary pressures have increased bets that the Federal Reserve will move to smaller hikes. The US indices continued to rise amid declining inflationary pressures. By the trading day's close, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 0.64%, and S&P500 (US500) added 0.34%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 0.64% on Thursday.

Important inflation data will be released in the US today. Economists expect the Consumer Price Index to decline from 7.1% to 6.5% year-over-year in December. The December consumer price index reading will determine the pace at which the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates. Expectations of further signs of easing inflationary pressures will support a less hawkish Fed stance (0.25% hike at the next meeting). The US indices rose yesterday as investors bet that today's US consumer price data will show a further slowdown in inflation. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.80%, and the S&P500 index (US500) added 1.28%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.76% on Wednesday.

The US indices were trading up yesterday. By the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 0.56%, and the S&P500 (US500) added 0.70%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.01% on Tuesday. In his speech at a banking symposium in Sweden, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell provided no new information on monetary policy but pointed to the Central Bank's resolve, saying that unpopular decisions may be needed to lower inflation.

The US indices traded yesterday without a single trend. Dips in healthcare and energy stocks offset gains in the high-tech sector. At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.34%, while the S&P500 index (US500) lost 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.63% on Monday. Goldman Sachs analysts believe the US economy will be more resilient to monetary tightening than other G10 economies, as not only a strong labor market but also a housing finance structure and energy self-sufficiency will help.

As the US labor market remains resilient, the Fed can count on further rate hikes to keep inflation in check. The dollar Index unexpectedly fell on a strong US labor market report, and this could be a "false" move as a strong labor market, along with further rate hikes, is the foundation for a stronger dollar. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 2.13% (+1.54% for the week), and the S&P500 index (US500) added 2.28% (+1.72% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 2.56% on Friday (+1.94% for the week). All three indices closed in positive territory last week.

The US inflation data in the spotlight this week

The US indices declined on Thursday due to rising Treasury yields as preliminary data from ADP continued to point to a robust labor market, fueling fears of aggressive tightening by the Federal Reserve. At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.02%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.16%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 1.47. By the end of the day, all three indices were negative.

At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.40%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.75%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.69% on Wednesday. All three indices closed the day in positive territory. The Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its rate target to a range of 5% to 5.25%. The markets expect the Fed to raise the rate by 0.25% at its next meeting on February 1. The probability of such a scenario is 84%. Goldman Sachs analysts expect three rate hikes of 25 bps in February, March, and May, with a peak funds rate of 5-5.25%.

As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.04%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.41%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.76% on Tuesday. At the end of the day, all three indices closed with losses. Apple (AAPL) lost more than 4%, approaching a $2 trillion market value for the first time since 2021. Shares of electric carmaker Tesla Inc (TSLA) fell more than 13% Tuesday after the company reported lower-than-expected deliveries for the quarter and year.

At the close of the stock market on the last trading day of 2022, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.22% (+0.56% for the week), while the S&P500 Index (US500) lost  0.25% (+0.64% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.11% on Friday (+0.28% for the week). By the end of 2022, The Dow Jones index (US30) fell by 9.40%, the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 19.95%, and the NASDAQ Index (US100) decreased by 33.89%.

The new trading week of the year promises to be active

The shadow of a Santa Claus rally has returned to the markets. At the close of the stock market on Thursday, the Dow Jones (US30) increased by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.75%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 2.39%. According to the US Department of Labor, the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance rose in line with expectations last week. Seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims for the week rose from 216,000 to 225,000.

Investors continue to get rid of stocks before the end of the trading year. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 1.20%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.35%. The Nasdaq (US100) fell to a two-month low as the technology downturn continues, and the S&P 500 (US500) is poised for its biggest annual loss since the 2008 financial crisis. Recession fears are highly likely to continue in the market in early 2023, but analysts believe equity markets will begin to recover in the second half of 2023.

The US indices traded yesterday without a single trend. By Tuesday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.11%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by  0.40%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.38%.

In the US, the Personal Consumption Price Index (PCE) rose by 0.1% last month after rising 0.4% in October. The latest data signaled that the PCE index was slowing, reinforcing expectations for a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and improving investor appetite for risk. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.53% (+0.86% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.59% (-0.23% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was up 0.21% on Friday (-1.96% for the week).

The last trading week of the 2022 year

In the US, higher-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 3.2% in the third quarter - compared to forecasts of 2.9% growth - has returned fears of an interest rate hike to the market. This led to a strengthening of the dollar index and a selloff in the stock market. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.05%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.45%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed the day at minus 2.18%.

In the United States, the Conference Board consumer confidence indicator jumped to 108.3 from 101.4, beating economists' forecast of 101.0. Data showing strong consumer sentiment, a key gauge of consumer spending that drives economic growth, eased fears of a recession, leading stock indices to rise. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.60%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.49%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed up by 1.54%.

The Bank of Japan alarmed investors yesterday after it announced it would allow Japan's 10-year government bond yields to rise 50 basis points or 0.5%. That's above the previous limit of 25 basis points and signals the Bank of Japan's first move to tighten monetary policy by expanding its target range for bond yields. Japan's rising government bond yields led to rising global bond yields, including Treasuries, which in turn led to falling indices. Nevertheless, the growth of energy companies' shares due to a jump in oil prices helped stabilize the stock market as a whole. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.28%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.10%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed at its opening level.

The US stock market fell on Monday for the fourth straight session as investors fear that the Federal Reserve's campaign to tighten monetary policy could push the US economy into recession. This sentiment is creating downward pressure on major indices. At the stock market's close, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.49%, while S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.90%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 1.49% on Monday. All three indices closed the day lower.

Prospects for a "Santa Claus rally" are decreasing every day as investors fear that aggressive Federal Reserve policy tightening will hamper stock indices. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.85% (-1.79% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 1.11% (-2.21% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.97% on Friday (-2.81% for the week). All three indices closed the week lower.

This week's focus is on the BoJ Interest Rate Decision, inflation data in Canada and Japan, and US GDP data

The US stock indices closed Thursday with sharp declines, with each of the major indices experiencing their biggest daily percentage drop in weeks, as fears intensified that the Federal Reserve's fight against inflation with aggressive interest rate hikes could lead to a recession. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.23%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 2.49%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 3.23% yesterday. All three indices closed the day with losses.

Stock indices closed lower Wednesday as the Federal Reserve shifted to a slower pace of rate hikes but also signaled that rates will reach higher levels than previously expected. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.5% and raised its rate forecast to a peak of 5.1%, which will remain through 2023. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.61%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.76% on Wednesday. All three indices closed the day lower.

The US consumer inflation rate fell from 7.7% to 7.1% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also fell from 6.3% to 6.1%. Overall, the latest data provided the strongest evidence that the United States inflation is slowing steadily. The markets reacted with an impulse to this data. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 0.73%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) was up 1.01% on Tuesday. All three indices closed the day in positive territory.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Microeconomic Data Center yesterday released its November 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations have declined in the short, medium, and long term. According to the report, expectations for rising home prices will continue to decline while the labor market will continue to strengthen. Household income growth expectations rose to a new high. Investors renewed their optimistic bets ahead of the release of economic data on inflation and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, which is expected later this week. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.58%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.43%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.26% on Monday. All three indices closed the day in positive territory.

In the United States, the PPI, which measures inflation between factories and plants, rose by 0.4% last month. This is a negative sign, indicating that the current rate of inflation may not yet be peaking. A stronger-than-expected consumer confidence report also contributed to a late-session sell-off in stocks. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.90% (-2.50% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.73% (-2.90% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.70% on Friday (-3.31% for the week). All three indices closed the week lower.

The focus this week is on global central banks meetings and inflation data

The US indices rose on Thursday amid a technology sector recovery, despite rising Treasury bond yields. By Thursday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.55%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.75%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.13% yesterday. All three indices closed on the plus side.

National Economic Council Director Brian Deese said yesterday that the US economy is resilient despite the Federal Reserve raising interest rates. Brian Deese also added that low credit card delinquencies and mortgage problems point to resilient household balance sheets, while the labor market and savings rates also point to more robust growth. Moreover, he pointed to slowing inflation as a positive sign of healthier economic growth. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) closed at opening levels, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down by 0.19%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.51% yesterday. All three indices closed negative.

Instead of a Santa Claus rally, the US stock indices have been under selling pressure in recent days. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.03%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.44%. The technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 2.00% yesterday. All three indices closed negative.

The US stock indices declined on Monday after strong data on manufacturing orders and the services sector combined with signs of a robust labor market heightened fears of tight US inflation. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.40%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 1.79%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) was down 1.93% yesterday. All three indices closed negative.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said last week that it might be time to slow rate hikes, raising hopes that the Central Bank is near the end of its tightening cycle. But Friday's jobs report that hiring remained high last month while average hourly earnings rose. The US non-farm payrolls report (NFP) beat market expectations with 263,000 new jobs created compared to the expected 200,000. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.10% (+0.45% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.12% (+1.66% for the week). Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.18% (+2.82% for the week). Despite the slight decline on Friday, all three indices closed the week on a profit.

This week, the main focus of investors is on the BOC and RBA interest rate meetings

The US stock market traded mixed yesterday ahead of the monthly jobs report due today. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.08% at the stock market's close yesterday, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.13% on Thursday. Investors are cautiously awaiting the release of key monthly US employment data, which could affect the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. The monthly employment data is expected to show that the economy created fewer jobs in November than in the previous month. Treasury yields fell sharply yesterday on concerns that the economy could face a deeper recession next year, despite early signs of declining consumer inflation.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the rate hikes are likely to slow, but the peak rate will be higher than previously expected, as there is a long way to go to curb inflation. About 70% of traders expect the Fed to slow rate hikes to 50 basis points in December, down from the 75 basis points seen in the previous four meetings. The Fed has targeted the labor market in its fight against inflation, hoping that tighter monetary policy will help reduce demand enough to curb wage growth and, ultimately, inflation. Stock indices jumped after Powell's speech. At the close of the stock market yesterday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 2.18%, and S&P 500 (US500) added 3.09%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 4.41% on Wednesday.

The US indices were trading yesterday without a single trend. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.09%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.59% on Tuesday.The Conference Board consumer confidence indicator rose to 100.2 in November from 100.0 in September, beating economists' forecast of 100.0. The confidence data suggest that the Fed needs to continue to be aggressive. The Fed Chair will set the tone for US monetary policy for the rest of the year today, clarifying whether US rate hikes will slow down.

The US indices fell on Monday due to pressure from Federal Reserve officials, who reiterated the need for higher rates for a more extended period. Civil unrest in China, amid intensifying Covid, also added to the negative sentiment. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.45%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.54%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.58%.

At the stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.45% (+2.20% for the week), while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.03% (+1.51% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.52% on Friday (-0.27% for the week). According to Adobe Analytics, online sales in the US reached a record $9 billion on Black Friday, despite high inflation. Adobe Analytics measures e-commerce by analyzing transactions on Websites and has access to data on purchases at 85% of the top 100 online stores in the United States. Adobe expects Cyber Monday to also be the biggest online shopping day of the season. Record spending by Americans will undoubtedly be reflected in earnings in companies' Q4 reports.

This week, the main focus will be the US labor market data, the inflation rate in Europe, as well as the Manufacturing PMI

The US stock indices did not trade yesterday because of the Thanksgiving holiday. Today is Black Friday in the United States, a day of huge store discounts. Financial markets will have a short working day. Stock markets in Europe mostly rose Thursday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.78%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.42%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) increased by 0.68%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed yesterday with a 0.02% gain.

The US indices rose Wednesday after minutes from the Federal Reserve's November meeting showed support for a soon slowdown in rate hikes. According to the FOMC minutes, Federal Reserve officials expect to move to a smaller interest rate hike soon. The main reason is the concern that a rate hike could seriously affect financial stability and the economy. Markets had largely expected the Fed to reduce the intensity of its policy tightening, and the FOMC minutes confirmed this. About 80% of traders expect the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes to 0.5% in December. This has largely restored investors' interest in risky assets and the stock market. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.28%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.59%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.99% yesterday.

The US indices returned to growth on Tuesday, helped by a series of positive quarterly results from retailers. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.18%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.36%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 1.36% yesterday.

On Monday, US indices closed slightly lower on weakness in energy and consumer stocks amid reports that China has reverted to disruptive restrictions related to the coronavirus. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.13%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.09% yesterday.

The Federal Reserve's hawkish signals have heightened fears of a potential US recession. Central Bank officials say they will not keep raising rates until inflation approaches its annual target range. This is a deterrent to further gains in stock indices. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.59% (+0.25% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.48% (-0.32% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.01% (-0.78% for the week).

FOMC minutes, the RBNZ interest rate decision and Black Friday are the focus of investor attention this week

The inflation rate in the Eurozone fell from 10.7% to 10.6% on an annualized basis. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel prices) remained at 5% y/y. The data points to a possible peak in inflation. This increases the probability that the ECB will raise interest rates by 0.5% at its next meeting rather than by 0.75%, as previously discussed. Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.23%, French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 0.47%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.75%, and British FTSE 100 (UK100) was down by 0.06% on Thursday.

Yesterday, the US Department of Commerce announced that Retail Sales in October rose by 1.3% (1.0% expected). Stronger than expected US Retail Sales overshadowed the inflation outlook and hope that the Federal Reserve will scale back its aggressive rate hike. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.12%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.83%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.54%.

Major US indices fell on Monday as hawkish comments from US Federal Reserve officials tempered investors' hopes that the central bank would ease its aggressive monetary policy. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.63%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.89%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.12% on Monday.

At the closing of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.09% (+3.99% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) added 0.92% (+5.61% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) increased by 1.88% on Friday (+7.67% for the week). However, despite the indices' growth, analysts keep decreasing the forecasts of the US companies' financial results and now expect negative growth of the "blue chips" total earnings in the 4th quarter.

Investors' attention this week is focused on inflation data from leading economies

The decline in inflation indicates that the peak of inflation is likely to be over, which means the US Fed can reduce the pace of interest rate hikes so as not to put additional pressure on the economy. The probability of a 0.5% rate hike in December rose to 81% (vs. 56% the day before). As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 3.70%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 5.54%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was up yesterday by a record increase of 7.35% in 1 day. Near the end of this difficult year, investors are starting to see the light at the end of the tunnel and a chance for a moderate pre-New Year's rally.

Global stock markets declined yesterday, and the US dollar rose against a basket of major currencies as the US Congressional election and President Joe Biden's agenda remain unclear after the midterm vote. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.95%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 2.08%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 2.48% yesterday. Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari warned Wednesday that it is premature to expect a "dovish reversal" from the Fed and that interest rates will continue to rise. Fed spokesman Barkin said Wednesday that fighting inflation could lead to a downturn in the economy, but that's a risk the Fed would have to take.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.02% at Monday's close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.56%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.49% yesterday. Preliminary results of the US congressional elections show a significant Republican lead, which means the US is close to a government split, likely derailing the Democrats' big spending plans on social issues. This could lead to a rise in the dollar index, as the new Congress will want to deal with inflation more quickly and push the US Federal Reserve to raise interest rates even more aggressively. Republicans are willing to accept a recession, but only if it is quick.

Goldman Sachs told its clients on Monday that there is still a 35% chance of a recession in the US over the next 12 months. While that is twice the normal recession risk, it is well below the average of 63%, according to a recent survey by The Wall Street Journal. A Bloomberg Economics model released in late October determined that the risk of recession over the next 12 months is a staggering 100%. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.31%, while the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.96%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.85% yesterday.

By the closing of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.26% (-1.07% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) added 1.36% (-2.87% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.28% on Friday (-5.02% for the week). Despite Friday's gains, all indices closed the week with losses.

Investors' attention this week is focused on US inflation data and US Congressional Elections

The US indices continued to decline yesterday. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.46%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) fell by 1.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down 1.73% on Thursday. Apple led the fall of major technology companies, falling more than 3%. Google (GOOGL), Microsoft (MSFT), and Amazon (AMZN) also fell yesterday. When these tech giants are down, it will be very difficult for the S&P 500 (US500) to rise because they make up a large market share.

The US indices continued to fall yesterday after hawkish comments from Jerome Powell. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones indexм(US30) decreased by 1.55%, and the S&P500 index (US500) lost 2.50%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 3.36% on Wednesday. The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 0.75% to a new 14-year high. The Bank believes higher borrowing costs will cool the economy and lower price inflation.

The JOLTS report indicated yesterday that the number of job openings rose to 10.7 million, missing analysts' expectations. Fed officials began hinting that if Friday's US labor market data indicated strength in the market, the US Fed might not cut the rate of increase until later in the year. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.24%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 0.41%. The NASDAQ Technology Indexм(US100) decreased by 0.89% yesterday.

The US indices fell yesterday amid weakness in the technology sector and ahead of a US Federal Reserve meeting, where a  0.75% interest rate hike is expected. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.39%, while the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 0.75%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) dropped on Monday by 1.03%.

Economic data Friday showed that US labor costs rose significantly in the third quarter. Still, private sector wage growth slowed, indicating that inflation has either peaked or is close to it. This coincides with recent statements from Fed officials that the US Central. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.49% (+5.37% for the week), and the S&P500 (US500) added 2.46% (+3.70% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.87% on Friday (+2.17% for the week).

Nonfarm payrolls report, Fed rate hike, and Bank of England decision are in the focus of the investors this week

The US stock indices traded yesterday without a single trend. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.61%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.61%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.63% on Thursday. After two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth, the US economy grew by 2.6% in the third quarter. However, analysts believe the outlook is deteriorating quickly as the cumulative effect of a 300 basis point rate hike is hurting business activity, and the Fed will continue to raise rates through the end of the year to ensure that inflation targets are met. The biggest drop in performance has been in the real estate sector, as home sales have fallen month to month.

The US stock indices were trading yesterday without a single trend. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.01%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.74%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.04% on Wednesday. The US economic data released by the US Commerce Department showed that home sales in September fell by 10.9% from the previous month, while August's 685,000 unit figure was revised downward to 677,000, indicating that the Federal Reserve's aggressive policies continue to hold back the real estate market.

At yesterday's close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.07%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.63%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.25% on Tuesday. Investor sentiment improved amid growing expectations that the high-interest rate damage to the US economy may prompt the Federal Reserve to soften its hawkish stance. Also, a positive for the market is the reporting season, but tech giants were disappointing yesterday.

The US stocks continued to rise on Monday. Weaker economic data on business activity caused Treasury yields to fall slightly and pushed stocks higher on the background that the Federal Reserve may consider a less aggressive monetary policy after a 75 basis point rate hike next month. Stocks also rallied ahead of a wave of quarterly results from major tech companies. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.34%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.19%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) closed by 0.86% on Monday.

The US stock indexes rose Friday after news that US Federal Reserve officials are discussing a 0.5% interest rate hike in November, raising hopes that the central bank may adopt a less aggressive policy. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.47% (3.48% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.37% (2.93% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.31% on Friday (2.69% for the week).

The focus this week is interest rates, inflation data, and the US reporting season

The US indices were down on Thursday as rising Treasury yields hit 14-year highs, negatively impacting investor sentiment, even though the bulk of quarterly results still indicated that corporate earnings were posting better than expected. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.30%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.80%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.61%.

"The Beige Book" showed a slowing US economy, declining consumer sentiment, and slowing demand. Real estate market data showed a decline in new home construction in the US, and the real estate market is likely to continue its downward trend amid rising interest rates. US stock indices fell yesterday as Treasury yields rose. Quarterly reports, which were mostly better than expected, did not help the indices either. At the close of trading yesterday, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.33%, S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.85%.

The US indices rose on Tuesday as better-than-expected quarterly results continued to support stock sentiment for a second straight day, although Apple's decline from session highs held back gains. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.12%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.14%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.77%.

The US stock market increased on Monday. Quarterly reports from Wall Street's biggest banks mostly exceeded analysts' expectations, which gave investors a positive outlook. Bank of America continued the trend of upbeat quarterly results from other Wall Street banks after reporting better-than-expected results for the third quarter. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.86%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 2.65%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 3.65% on Monday.

The US dollar rose about 0.45% last week, helped by rising US Treasury bond yields. While the overall annual consumer price Index slowed slightly in September, the core Index increased to its highest level since 1982, a sign that price pressures in the US economy remain consistently high. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.34% (+0.73% for the week), and the S&P500 Index (US500) lost 2.37% (-1.77% for the week). The technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 3.08% on Friday (-3.18% for the week).

This week, the focus for investors will be on the consumer price Index in the major economies. There will also be plenty of economic statistics on China, with Q3 GDP data worth a special look. Several US Federal Reserve and ECB officials will speak this week. Investors should not forget about the 3rd quarter US earnings season. Companies due to report earnings next week include Tesla, Netflix, and Johnson & Johnson.

The US consumer price Index rose by 0.4% last month, but in annual terms, the Index declined from 8.3% to 8.2%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.6% last month, and in annual terms, the core Index increased from 6.3% to 6.6%, the highest level since 1982. So overall inflation has shown signs of declining, while core inflation has shown signs of accelerating. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 2.83%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) added 2.83%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.23% yesterday.

A decline in inflation could give a sharp boost to stock indices as US Federal Reserve policy becomes less aggressive in upcoming meetings. Conversely, an inflation acceleration would boost the dollar index and government bond yields, leading to even more stock declines. The US Producer Price Index, which shows the rate of inflation between companies, rose another 0.4% last month, but on an annualized basis, the index fell from 8.7% to 8.5%. So there is hope for a decline in consumer inflation. As the stock market closed Wednesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.10%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.33%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.09% yesterday.

Stock markets continue to fall amid hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve indicating the need to tighten monetary policy further and keep rates higher. As the stock market closed Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.12%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.65%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.10% yesterday.

The US Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard hinted that the US Central Bank would continue its mission to reduce inflation despite the worsening growth outlook. The policymaker predicts that the recovery in the year's second half will be limited. A 75 basis point hike in November and a peak rate of 4.60-4.70% is now the main target, but additional hawkish comments could spur additional panic amid a longer tightening cycle. The White House also added fuel to the fire after it unveiled new export restrictions on US companies selling semiconductor chips and other manufacturing equipment to China, which led to the fall of tech companies. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.32%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.75%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 1.04%.

This week, the main focus for traders will be the US inflation rate data. Economists are predicting a slight decline in inflation, which will allow investors to return to riskier assets on expectations that the Fed will be less aggressive in raising interest rates. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting on Wednesday should indicate how officials feel about the economy and the inflation outlook. The UK is due to release monthly GDP data and labor market data. Oil prices will also remain in the spotlight after OPEC+ announced the largest production cuts since 2020. And at the end of the week, the banking sector will open the earning season for the third quarter in the United States.

The US 10-year bond yields rose nearly 10 basis points to 3.85% after Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said yesterday that the central bank is "very far" from suspending its tightening campaign. Kashkari's comments followed a series of hawkish remarks from other officials. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Charles Evans said Thursday that the US Central Bank's discount rate is likely to reach 4.5-4.75% by the spring of 2023 as the Fed increases the cost of borrowing to reduce too much inflation. A day earlier, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said that investors are wrong to anticipate monetary policy easing in 2023. Such hawkish rhetoric brought negativity back to the financial markets, which triggered some sell-off in stocks. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.15%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 1.30%. Tech Index NASDAQ (US100) closed the day down by 0.35%. At the Fed meeting in November, money markets are pricing in a more than 85% chance of a fourth straight 75 basis point rate hike.

After a smaller-than-expected interest rate hike by the RBA this week and the UN asking central banks to slow interest rate hikes, the fundamental narrative shifted toward a potential "turnaround" by the Fed toward a slower interest rate hike. This has helped support stock markets. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.14%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.20%. NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 0.30%.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Tuesday that job openings fell from 11.17 million to 10.05 million during August. On the one hand, the news is negative. Still, on the other hand, investors have begun to wonder if the slowdown seen in the US economy will cause the Federal Reserve to adjust its rate hike trajectory and be less aggressive. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.80%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 3.06%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.69% on Tuesday.

The US stocks rose on the first trading day of October after a challenging September. The Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500 (US500) indices experienced their worst months since March 2020 and were dangerously close to their June lows. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.79%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.59%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.91% on Monday.

At the close of trading on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.71% (-2.75% for the week), while the S&P500 (US500) was 1.51% lower (-2.64% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.75% on Friday (-0.39% for the week). As the Fed tightened its monetary policy to tame the strongest inflation in decades, the US Treasury yields jumped to their highest level in more than a decade, causing stocks to plummet.

This week's main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States. The report will show whether the Fed's series of aggressive rate hikes impact the labor market. The Central Banks of Australia and New Zealand will hold regular meetings, where interest rates are expected to increase.

According to the US Department of Labor, initial jobless claims for the week unexpectedly fell to 193,000, down from 209,000 the previous week. This is the lowest level in four months. Other data showed that US real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) declined at an annualized rate of 0.6% in the second quarter of 2022. In the first quarter, real GDP was down 1.6%. Thus, the US economy has already had two official quarters of declining GDP, indicating a recession in the economy. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.54% at the stock market's close yesterday, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 2.11%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 2.07% by the end of the day.

The US and European stock markets rebounded slightly on Wednesday after the Bank of England said it would intervene in the bond market to curb the devastating rise in borrowing costs. Investors were alarmed last week, particularly by a sharp rise in bond yields. Central Banks sought to raise interest rates to rein in red-hot inflation before it sent the global economy into recession. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.88%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.97%. Technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.39% on the day.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.43% at the close of the stock market yesterday, while the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.23%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.69% by the end of the day. The decline is getting deeper on Wall Street despite rising consumer confidence in September. The S&P 500 fell yesterday to its lowest level since December 2020, bringing this month's loss nearly 8%. Ned Davis Research now thinks there is a 98% chance of an impending global recession.

At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.11%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 1.03%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.63% on Monday. The Fed's aggressive tightening campaign has pushed the US dollar to new multi-year highs, and many are worried about the consequences of such a strong dollar. The US 2-year bond yields have reached 4.34%. In addition, a strong dollar could lead companies to release weak forecasts for the coming quarters, which could further exacerbate the drop in stock indices.

The US indices continue to be under pressure due to the aggressive roadmap of the US Federal Reserve. At the close of trading on Tuesday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.35%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.84%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.37% yesterday. Ahead of the Fed's remaining meetings in 2022, analysts believe there will likely be another 75 basis point hike in November before the pace slows to 50 basis points in December as the Fed approaches the rate cap in early 2023.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates and changed its outlook for further rate hikes, indicating a period of higher interest rates. The prospect of higher interest rates over the long term has put pressure on growing sectors of the economy. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.70%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.71%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.79% yesterday.

The US indices fell on Tuesday as investors raised their bearish rates over fears that the Federal Reserve might signal a continuation of aggressive rate hikes. The Fed's willingness to continue tightening monetary policy brings the economic recession closer. As the stock market closed on Tuesday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.01%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.52% yesterday.

At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.64%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.69%. The NASDAQ technology Index (US100) jumped 0.76% yesterday. The Federal Reserve is going to raise interest rates on Wednesday but is unlikely to raise them by 100 basis points, the CFRA reported Monday.

The volatile rise in US stocks this year shows no signs of easing as data on high inflation makes it likely that the Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates further, increasing the chances of a recession. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.45% (-4.16% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.72% (-5.15% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.90% (-5.97% for the week).

Global stock markets look set for another volatile week amid fears that higher interest rates will lead to economic problems. This week investors' attention should be focused on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Central Banks of the United States, Great Britain, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, and Norway. Elsewhere except Japan, interest rates are expected to rise by 0.5-0.75%.

Rosenberg Research's chief economist expects the US Central Bank to raise interest rates by 75 basis points when it meets later this month. The US retail sales rose unexpectedly after falling the previous month. The value of total retail purchases increased by 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised drop of 0.4% in July. Excluding fuel prices, retail sales increased by 0.8%. The S&P 500 Index fell Thursday as energy and technology stocks fell, with the latter under pressure from rising Treasury yields as investors expect the Federal Reserve to raise its interest rate further to curb inflation. At yesterday's close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.56%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.43%.

According to a report from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released Wednesday, the Producer Price Index, which reflects wholesale price levels, fell by 0.1%. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, the PPI rose by 0.2%. The PPI report fleshes out the US inflation picture and makes it not as bad as the August Consumer Price Index report. Inflation is clearly slowing as gas prices fall. But the process is slow, and inflation will likely remain well above the Fed's target for at least a few more quarters. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.09%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.34%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 0.29% on Wednesday.

Inflationary pressures in the United States failed to decline significantly last month, despite falling gas prices. Equity markets in Europe also fell yesterday. German DAX (DE30) fell by 1.59%, French CAC 40 (FR40) decreased by 1.39%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 1.59%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) closed down by 1.17%.

The US stock indices rose ahead of key inflation data. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.72%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.07%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.34% on Monday.

Federal Reserve officials expect another major interest rate hike this month as they rush to curb demand.At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.19% (+1.09% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.53% (+1.82% for the week). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.27% (+4.72% for the week).

There are many Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports coming out this week for August. Germany, Spain, and the United States will publish their report on Tuesday, the United Kingdom will publish its report on Wednesday, France will publish its report on Thursday, and Italy, with the Eurozone, will publish their reports on Friday. Analysts forecast lower inflation in the US, while inflation in the UK and Europe is expected to be at the same level, although there may be surprises upwards.

Yesterday the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.61%, and the S&P500 Index (US500) added 0.66%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.60% on Thursday. The S&P 500 Index is down about 17% since the beginning of the year.

The technology sector, which has been under pressure in recent days, was also supported by lower Treasury yields. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.40% and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.83%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.14% on Wednesday.

The dollar index and Treasury yields increased sharply amid the data, with the 10-year Treasury yields rising to a new three-month high. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.54%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.40%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.74% on Tuesday.

The US stock indices did not trade yesterday due to the banking holiday in the United States. Equity markets in Europe were mostly down yesterday. German DAX (DE30) decreased by 2.22%, French CAC 40 (FR40) was 1.20% lower, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.88%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) added 0.09% on Monday.

The US stock indices ended the week lower on Friday, as early gains amid a report on Nonfarm Payrolls were overshadowed by worries about the energy crisis in Europe. The US economy added 315,000 jobs in August, still a solid indicator showing that the economy remains resilient despite rising interest rates, high inflation, and sluggish consumer spending. Friday's government report also showed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.7% from a low of 3.5%. Analysts believe the decline in US job gains in August may help the Fed's fight against inflation. At the close of trading on Friday the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.07% (-2.70% for the week) and the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.07% (-2.73% for the week). The Technology Sector Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.31% (-1.06% for the week).

Despite Monday being a bank holiday in the US and Canada, this economic week is very busy. First of all, investors' attention is focused on the situation in Europe around the Nord Stream pipeline. Secondly, the OPEC+ countries will hold an important meeting on Monday, where there could be surprises in the form of oil production cuts. The ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting on Wednesday, where an aggressive 0.75% rate hike is expected. The Central Banks of Australia and Canada also plan to raise rates. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will speak at the Cato Institute conference on Thursday, and investors will be watching for any clues as to the Fed's future plans. A number of countries will also release second-quarter GDP data, which is important for recessionary estimates. Also, don't forget that Britain will announce the name of a new prime minister on Monday.

The ISM Manufacturing Index was 52.8 in August, unchanged from July and beating the consensus forecast of 51.9. Expectations for a third straight 75 basis point rate hike in the US at the Fed's September 20-21 meeting are rising on solid economic data, with Fed funds futures indicating a 77.1% chance of such an increase. Market attention now turns to the August US Nonfarm Payrolls report, which will be one of the key reports ahead of the Fed meeting. Although the US economy contracted in the first half of the year, the robust labor market defies talk of a recession and encourages the Federal Reserve to keep raising rates. At the close of the US stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) added 0.46%. The S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.30%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.26%.

At the close of the US stock exchange yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 0.88% (monthly result -3.93%). S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.78% (-3.97% for the month). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 0.12% (monthly result -0.15%). Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester said Wednesday that the Fed would need to raise the federal funds rate to just above 4% by early next year and hold it at that level for a while.

Major Wall Street indices fell on Tuesday as a surge in US job openings pointed to a strong labor market, adding to concerns about the Federal Reserve's aggressive approach to lowering inflation. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.96%, and the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.10%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.12% yesterday. Traders raised their rates for the third straight 75 basis point increase in September to 76.5% from 70%. All investors are now focused on the Nonfarm Payroll data for August, which will be released on Friday.

The decline in technology, which began on Friday, continued into the new trading week under pressure from rising Treasury bond yields. The Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.57% at Monday's close of the stock market. The S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.67%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.63% yesterday. The Jackson Hole document warns that without fiscal tightening, there will be a vicious cycle of rising nominal interest rates, inflation, economic stagnation, and debt.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled at a speech in Jackson Hole that the US Сentral Bank will likely continue to raise interest rates and leave them elevated for a while to suppress inflation, and rejected any idea that the Fed would change course soon. Powell added that lowering inflation to the 2% target is the Сentral Bank's top priority right now, even though consumers and businesses will feel the economic pain. He reiterated that another unusually large increase in the benchmark lending rate might be appropriate when officials meet next month. Amid these statements, the US stock indices saw a sell-off on Friday. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 3.03% (-3.88% for the week). The S&P 500 (US500) fell by 3.37% (-3.28% for the week) at Friday's close of the stock market. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 3.94% (-3.05% for the week).

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech became the last week's main event following the annual Symposium in Jackson Hole. The US Nonfarm Payrolls report will become the week's main event as it is the most important data for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the labor market will add 295,000 jobs in August after 528,000 in July. The data on the preliminary inflation rate in the Eurozone should also be on the trader's list since the ECB meeting is two weeks away. Also, investors should not miss the Manufacturing PMI data in various countries. Falling below 50 is a serious slowdown in the sector, which usually leads to a recession.

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of recessions in the United States, defines a recession as a significant decline in economic activity that extends throughout the economy, lasting more than several months, usually manifested in production, employment, and real income. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.98%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.41%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 1.67%.

The US durable goods orders were unchanged month-over-month in July. Unfinished US home sales fell in July for the sixth time this year to the lowest level since the pandemic began, extending a sharp decline in the housing market. The number of signed contracts was down 22.5% from a year ago. Rising interest rates always negatively affect the housing market, so things will only worsen in the near future. At the stock market close yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.18%, while the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.29%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.41%.

Yesterday, the US stock indices fell sharply after PMI data showed that US private sector activity was weaker than expected in August. On the one hand, this is a sign that the US Federal Reserve might become less aggressive in tightening monetary policy. On the other hand, Fed spokesman Kashkari indicated yesterday that the Fed must continue aggressively tightening monetary policy. Analysts and investors are now waiting for US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to speak at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.47%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.22%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) closed at the opening level.

US indices fell sharply on Monday as rising market sectors, including technology and consumer goods, came under pressure from rising Treasury bond yields amid fears that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will deliver a hawkish surprise at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole. As the stock market closed Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.91%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 2.14%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 2.55% yesterday.

The US stock indices were trading lower on Friday. By the closing of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.85% (-0.01% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.29% (-0.96% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.01% (-2.24% for the week). Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft all fell, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq slowed the most. Higher rates tend to be negative for technology companies and growth stocks. Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Friday that US Central Bank officials still have plenty of time before they need to decide how much to raise interest rates in September. The recovery in US stocks is inspiring confidence among investors. The S&P 500 (US500) rebounded about 16% from its low after its worst first half since 1970, helped by stronger-than-expected corporate earnings, and hopes the economy can avoid a recession.

This week, investors will focus on US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Central Bank's annual conference in Jackson Hole, where he will share his views on the future trajectory of interest rates. Fed executives reiterated that there is still much work to be done in their fight against inflation, pushing back against expectations of peak inflation. Investors should also keep an eye on the US GDP data as fears about the prospect of a recession persist. Also, on Tuesday, Eurozone countries will publish important data on manufacturing and services PMI.

According to the National Association of Realtors monthly report, home sales fell nearly 6% in July compared to June. Compared to the same month last year, home sales are down about 20%. The US real estate market is already in a recession regarding economic impact. But other data so far show no signs of weakness. Philadelphia's Monthly Manufacturing Index rose to 6.2 this month from a negative 12.3 in July, topping all 30 estimates by Reuters economists. The number of US new jobless claims also fell moderately last week. Consumer price inflation and employment data for August, due out before the Fed's September meeting, will likely affect the size of the rate hike. Traders now expect the benchmark rate to peak at 3.5% in March, although some Fed officials favor 4% or more. The US stock indices rose yesterday. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.06%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.23%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.21%.

The US Retail Sales data on Wednesday were good, which helped ease fears of an economic slowdown. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed Fed officials were concerned the US Central Bank might raise rates too much as part of its commitment to control inflation. Some Fed participants noted that interest-rate-sensitive sectors were starting to show signs of slowing and that some felt there was a risk of over-tightening. After the minutes were released, the probability of a 75 basis point hike in September fell to 40% from 52% earlier Wednesday, with a 50 basis point hike now seen as a 60% probability. The US stock indices were trading lower yesterday. At yesterday's stock market close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.50%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.72%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.25%.

The US Industrial Production for July reports a 0.6% month-over-month increase compared to the consensus forecast of 0.3%. This report provides more evidence that Q3 GDP should be good, but the outlook for Q4 looks tougher. The NY Empire manufacturing survey was weak on Monday and pointed to low year-end orders and activity. There are also growing problems with the real estate sector. The US housing starts fell by 9.6% m/m in July to an annualized rate of 1.446k compared to the consensus forecast of 1.527k. This is the weakest level since February 2021. The US stock indices traded yesterday without a single trend. At Monday's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.71%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.19%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.19%.

US stock indexes were trading up yesterday. By Monday's close of trading, the Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.45%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.40%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.62%. Investors are still focused on signals of weakening inflation in the US and an improvement in the country's economic assessment. However, the Fed is only 60-70% of the way through its interest rate hike cycle and will begin trimming the balance sheet starting in September.

The University of Michigan index for August 2022 rose to 55.1 from 52.5. According to the report, the US inflation is expected to be 5% by year-end (5.2% previously), with the 5-year inflation rate rising from 2.9% to 3.0%. Other data showed that US import prices declined in July for the first time in seven months due to lower fuel and non-fuel costs. The US stock indices traded higher on Friday. By closing the stock market Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.27% (+2.69% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) added 1.73% (+2.99% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.09% (+2.70% for the week).

This week, investors will focus on the FOMC minutes of the July meeting, which will analyze for clues about the size of September rate hikes. The UK will publish data on inflation, which is expected to approach the 10% mark. In Europe, an important second-quarter GDP report will be released. The Central Banks of New Zealand and Norway hold monetary policy meetings where significant interest rate hikes are expected. Traders should also not miss the Consumer Price Index data in Japan and Canada, as well as the monetary policy meeting minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia.

US Federal Reserve officials tried to temper expectations for looser policy, and Neel Kashkari said at a conference on Wednesday that the Central Bank is a long way from declaring victory. Kashkari also added that the Central Bank's proposal to cut interest rates early next year is unrealistic. In an interview with the Financial Times, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly also warned that it is too early for the US Central Bank to "declare victory" in the fight against inflation. Amid such comments, stock indices fell slightly. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.08%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.07%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.58%.

The US stock market rose Wednesday after the release of inflation data for July, which showed that price pressures eased. The overall Consumer Price Index for July was 8.5%, down from the 8.7% expected by economists. Investors now see a 50 basis point rate hike as the most likely scenario for the Federal Reserve's September meeting. Stock indices jumped sharply on the news, while the dollar index saw its biggest one-day drop in 5 months. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.63%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.89%.

The US stock indices were trading lower yesterday ahead of the inflation data, indicating that investors were probably closing their positions before the important report. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.18%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) was down 0.42%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.19%.

The US stock indices traded mixed on Monday. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.09%, while the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.12%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.10% yesterday. Tesla (TSLA) added 1%, driving consumer stocks higher as sentiment about electric vehicles was boosted by a new climate bill passed by the US Senate over the weekend. It includes nearly $400 billion over a 10-year period to fund energy-related programs and expand and improve existing tax credits for electric vehicles.

The US stock indices traded without a single trend. At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.26%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 0.41%. The US Labor Department reported yesterday that about 260,000 people filed unemployment claims during the previous week, 6,000 more than the previous week. The Nonfarm Payrolls report today will also serve as an overview of the Federal Reserve's likely path for monetary policy, as the Central Bank emphasized labor market strength as evidence that the economy remains resilient and capable of resisting further rate hikes.

Fed officials reiterated Wednesday their determination to curb high inflation. One official noted that a half-percent hike in the Central Bank's key interest rate next month may be enough to achieve that goal. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.29%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.56%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.59%.

According to analysts at JPMorgan, the US stock market is ready for further growth, likely starting as early as the second half of this year. Easing inflation expectations and falling bond yields indicate that the peak of the hawkish sentiment has probably already passed, and for this reason, analysts at JPMorgan believe that the US economy will avoid recession, despite the negative GDP growth for two consecutive quarters. JPMorgan's year-end target for the S&P 500 is 4,800 points, which represents a growth potential of 17% from current levels. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.22%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.66%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.10%.

According to the latest ISM report, economic activity in the US manufacturing sector rose in July, with the economy posting its 26th consecutive month of growth. But it should be noted that there is a downward trend in growth, and the PMI indicator is approaching the level of 50. Going below 50 is usually a harbinger of recession. At the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.14%, and the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.28%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down by 1.13% on Monday.

The US Personal Consumer Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate, closely monitored by the Fed, is at its highest since January 1982. The PCE increased to 6.8% in June. The core PCE (which excludes food and fuel prices) was up 4.8% from a year ago and up 0.1% from May. The Employment Cost Index, another figure that Fed policymakers keep a close eye on, rose by 1.3% in the second quarter. The Index added 5.1% in 12 months, a record for a series of data tracked since 2002. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates another 0.5% in September, according to the FedWatch CME Group tracker. However, the probability of a larger three-quarter-point hike rose to 38% Friday morning. As the stock market closed Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.97% (+2.80% for the week, +6.73% for the month ), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.42% (+4.15% for the week, +9.11% for the month). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.88% on Friday (+4.67% for the week, +12.35% for the month).

This week's main events will be data on the labor market (Nonfarm Payrolls) in the United States and interest rate meetings of the Central Banks of England and Australia. Analysts forecast that both the Bank of England (BoE) and the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise interest rates by 0.5%. Also, this week there will be a lot of macroeconomic statistics on manufacturing PMIs and services PMI data, which will indicate global economic trends in key economies for the first month of the third quarter. It should also be noted that it is the reporting season now – companies are showing their results for the previous quarter.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 rose after an unexpected slowdown in the US economy, sparking optimism that the Federal Reserve will be forced to revise the pace of rate hikes downward. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.03%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.21%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.08% yesterday.

The US Federal Reserve yesterday raised interest rates by 75 basis points and confirmed that further increases would be appropriate to contain high inflation, which is putting pressure on global economic activity. The Fed said that some parts of the economy, such as spending and production, have weakened. However, there has been significant job growth in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains low. At a press conference following the monetary policy announcement, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell supported the idea that the central bank would hold another rate hike in September. However, he said that a slower pace of increases might be needed to give the Fed time to evaluate the implications. It is positive for the market, as the peak of the Fed's hawkish mood has passed. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.37%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.62%. Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 4.06% yesterday.

US consumer confidence fell in July for the third month in a row, indicating a slowdown in growth early in the third quarter. The index was negative, with values worse than economists' estimates. New home sales in the US fell just over 8% in June from a month earlier and were down double digits from a year earlier, suggesting a weakening housing market due to the rise in mortgages. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.71%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.15%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) gained 0.59% yesterday.

The Dow Jones index had a positive start to the week on Monday as a rally in energy offset weakness in the technology sector ahead of quarterly reports from major technology companies and a Federal Reserve meeting. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.28%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.13%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) was down by 0.35% yesterday.

In the US, weekly jobless claims hit a five-month high, while existing home sales declined for the fifth straight month. These are signs of problems in the labor and housing markets. According to some analysts, the US Federal Reserve may officially announce the beginning of the recession in the United States this week. The US economy is already down 1.6% in the first quarter, and the second quarter is also negative, so, technically, this recession is possible. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.43% (+1.34% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) fell by 0.93% (+2.00% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 1.87% on Friday (+2.36% for the week).

The most important meeting of the Federal Reserve on monetary policy and interest rates will take place this week. The main question is whether the rate will be raised by 0.75% or 1%. Right now 80/20 probability in favor of a 75 basis point increase. The world's biggest companies are reporting: Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. At the end of the week, there will be a lot of data on the Consumer Price Index and GDP from different countries. While much of this will be retrospective, it may still hint at what will happen with the economy and the central bank's behavior.

The US stock indices increased yesterday on the technology sector's growth, as better-than-expected Tesla earnings supported the sector. The Dow Jones (US30) added 0.51% at the close, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 0.99%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.36%.

Wall Street closed up yesterday thanks to a jump in tech stocks on optimistic earnings. At the close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.15%, and the S&P 500 (US500) added 0.59%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.58%. According to Definitiv, the S&P 500 (US 500) will show a 5.9% year-over-year gain this earnings season, down from an estimate of 6.8% at the beginning of the quarter. Unrestrained inflation initially led markets to estimate a 100 basis point interest rate hike at next week's upcoming Fed meeting, but 80% probability is now on the side of a 75 basis point hike.

US stock indices rose on Tuesday as investors temporarily put aside recession fears and dived into the reporting season. Investors are taking a close look at factors, how companies are struggling with higher costs and persistent supply problems, and how consumer behavior is changing amid persistently high inflation. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.43%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.76%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 3.11% yesterday.

On Monday, US stock indices closed in the negative territory. By the close of trading on the stock exchange Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.69%, S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.84%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 0.81%. Shares of Apple fell by 2% after reports that the company will slow hiring and spending, becoming the next tech giant to take such a step as fears of an economic slowdown hit the sector. IT equipment and services maker IBM beat expectations for quarterly earnings on Monday but warned that the strong dollar would negatively impact the company's results. The Federal Reserve's hawkish activity and heightened geopolitical tensions have caused the dollar to rise against a basket of currencies over the past year, prompting companies with large international operations to temper their forecasts. A stronger dollar is eating into the profits of companies with extensive international operations and converting foreign currencies into dollars.

Friday's macro data showed that US retail sales rose more than expected in June. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's index of general business conditions increased to +11.1 from -1.2. A value above zero indicates growth and the July figure beat all forecasts in a Bloomberg survey of economists. At the same time, the Fed Bank Business Conditions Index fell more than 20 points to -6.2, the biggest drop since the terrorist attacks in September 2001. Also late last week the US Federal Reserve released fresh statistics on the change in assets on the balance sheet. The data showed a $69.2 billion drop in assets, while reserves in the banking system increased. The growing surplus of dollar liquidity in the financial system led to the closing of longs on the US currency, which led to some decline of the dollar on Thursday and Friday. At the same time, stock indices were rising for the last 2 days of last week. By the close of stock markets on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 2.15% (+0.03% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) added 1.92% (-0.46% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.79% (-0.63% for the week).

This week investors' attention should be focused on the ECB Interest Rate Decision as well as inflation data in leading countries. Rising inflation is always a reason for the central bank to tighten monetary policy, so high inflation is very often accompanied by an increase in the national currency. The European Central Bank is meeting on Thursday and the bank is expected to raise rates for the first time in a decade. The earning season is gaining momentum in the United States and Europe. Several blue chips are due to report this week. Traders should also keep a close eye on the oil market. According to preliminary information, US President Joe Biden has agreed with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohamed Bin Salman to pump more oil, so oil prices could be very volatile this week.

The US Producer Price Index, which shows the rate of inflation between factories, added 1.1% over the last month while it was expected to rise 0.8%. On an annualized basis, the index reached a record 11.3%. Meanwhile, yesterday Federal Reserve officials Waller and Bullard said that they favor a 75 basis point hike at the US central bank's July meeting, making a more aggressive move of 100 basis points less likely. Fed funds futures now indicate a 31% chance of a 100 basis point increase and a 69% chance of a 75 basis point increase. But analysts still expect the dollar to rise as it benefits from the higher prospect of rate hikes than other global central banks.

Stock indices reacted to the news on US inflation data with a sharp drop. By the close of the Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.67%, while S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.45%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.15% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices were down. The gap in the yield curve inversion between 2-year and 10-year bonds reached 25 points yesterday, which also is negative for the stock market and the economy.

Уesterday, the yield curve for 2- and 10-year bonds approached the close since 2007, with the curve remaining inverted. The widening spread between 2-year and 10-year bonds signals a clear recession warning. "But Q2 results for banks should be solid, as it is too early for banks to make meaningful provisions for potential credit losses in the event of a potential U.S. recession," Deutsche Bank said in a report. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.62%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.92% at the close of trading on Tuesday. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.95% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices were down.

The US Stock Indices fell on Monday as investors expected a weak reporting season and negative inflation data for June. Despite a strong labor market, investors are still wary of a recession and waiting to hear from company executives about costs, supply chains, and their views on business conditions over the next few months. "There's nervousness about earnings season and the CPI report, but I think the market has a sense as to what CPI is going to bring this week," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. As the stock market closed on Monday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) was down 0.52% and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.15%. Yesterday the Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) decreased by 2.26%. At the end of the day all three indices were on the plus side.

The US Labor Department reported Friday that US employers added 372,000 jobs in June, about 100,000 more than economists had expected. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained at 3.6 percent for the third month. As the stock market closed Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.15% (+1.95% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.08% (+3.13% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.12% on Friday (+5.71% for the week). All three indices ended the week in the black.

Last week, investors were mainly focused on the FOMC minutes and Nonfarm Payrolls data. The FOMC minutes showed that the Fed will likely raise rates by 0.75% at the July meeting. A strong jobs report also boosts the prospect of a 75bp Fed hike. This week, the main focus of investors will be on inflation data in the United States and Germany. Also, this week the central banks of Canada and New Zealand will meet on interest rate decisions. Analysts are predicting interest rate hikes by 0.5% in both cases. Investors should also keep on the start of the US earning period for the second quarter of 2022.

The US Federal Reserve officials Bullard and Waller had nothing new to say yesterday. The labor market remains resilient, monetary tightening is already affecting the economy, and expectations for economic growth - that was said many times before. To summarize, the US Fed remains hawkish. The minutes of the Fed's last meeting, released Wednesday, indicated another 75 basis point hike in July. US indices jumped yesterday thanks to a rebound in energy stocks on the back of rising oil prices. The Dow Jones (US30) added 1.12% at the close of trading, while the S&P 500 (US500) increased by 1.50%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 2.28% on Thursday. All three indices closed on the plus side at the end of the day.

Investors looked closely at the Federal Reserve's latest FOMC protocol, which provided new data on the Central Bank's monetary policy and the fight against inflation. According to the latest FOMC minutes, the Fed will also raise interest rates by 0.75% at its July meeting. The committee also lowered its growth forecast for the second half of 2022 and 2023. The minutes reflect participants' concerns that a rate hike has a "greater than expected" impact on economic growth. Participants have not seen enough evidence that supply constraints have loosened enough to help control inflation. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.23%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.36%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.35% on Wednesday. All three indices ended the day in the green territory.

Yesterday, the dollar index showed an impressive rally and added almost 1.4% during the day, setting a 20-year record. Analysts attribute this growth to the fact that the FOMC minutes will be released today, indicating that the Fed will again raise the interest rate by 0.75% at its next meeting. Investors remain concerned about the recession caused by monetary tightening, despite possibly reducing some US tariffs on Chinese goods. The looming energy crisis in Europe amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine and threats to corporate earnings are also at the forefront of investor concerns. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.42%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.16%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.75% on Tuesday.

Yesterday the US had a bank holiday due to Independence Day, and the stock market did not trade. Stock markets in Europe traded without a single dynamic on Monday. Yesterday, German DAX (DE30) decreased by 0.31%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.40%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) lost 0.17%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up to 0.89%.

The US ISM manufacturing index decreased to 54.5 from 56.1. Despite the decline, the indicator is above 50 and above analysts' expectations. But the overall manufacturing PMI fell to its lowest level since July 2020 amid stagnant factory production and falling new orders. The manufacturing sector is a drag on GDP, and analysts believe this resistance will increase through the summer. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.06% (-1.38% for the week) and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.05% (-2.43% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.90% (-4.57% for the week). All three indices were down by the end of the week.

This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of significant events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week’s main event, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report will be worse than the previous month, but the unemployment rate will not change. FOMC protocol on Wednesday will give investors some insight into how FED policymakers see the future trajectory of interest rates as markets remain focused on the prospect of a recession. The European Central Bank is to publish the minutes of its June meeting on Thursday when it announced plans to deliver its first interest rate hike. The Reserve Bank of Australia will hold an interest rate meeting. Analysts predict that the bank will raise the rate by 0.5%. As a rule, rising interest rates are accompanied by a strengthening national currency.

The inflation rate, which the Federal Reserve closely monitors, was 6.3% in May, unchanged from April's level. Personal spending increased by 0.2% in May, missing forecasts of a 0.4% increase, and April's rate was revised down to 0.6% from 0.9%. Recession fears are growing after the Federal Reserve raised rates to combat rising inflation. Chronically high inflation has become a major threat to the economy and a political danger to President Joe Biden and the Democrats. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.82%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.88%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.33% yesterday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated the Central Bank's commitment to tighten monetary policy further to reduce inflation as GDP data showed a faster-than-expected decline in quarterly economic growth. Real gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 1.6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2022. This situation led to a rise in the US Dollar Index and a decline in the major indices. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.26%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.03%.

The mood of investors and analysts changes almost every day. Yesterday, US stock indexes saw a new massive sell-off as gloomy consumer confidence data once again dampened investor optimism and heightened fears that the Federal Reserve's aggressive fight against inflation will lead to a recession in the economy. The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell to its lowest level since February 2021, and short-term expectations reached their most pessimistic level in nearly a decade. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.56%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 2.01%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 2.98%. At the end of the day, all three indices were down.

On Monday, the US dollar fell slightly from a 20-year high hit earlier this month. It followed positive US economic data that eased expectations of an aggressive rate hike by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, stock indices also showed weakness, but usually, when the dollar index declines, indices rise. At the close of trading on Monday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.20% and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.30%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.72% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices were down.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 2.68% (+5.31% per week), while the S&P 500 index (US500) added 3.06% (+6.71% per week). Technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 3.34% on Friday (+8.51% per week). All three indices closed in the plus as the week ended.

There will be several important events in the coming week. The main event will be the data on the inflation rate in Europe. The ECB is planning its first rate hike in a long time at its July meeting, but a sharp rise in inflation may encourage policymakers to go for a more aggressive step. On Monday, starts a three-day forum with the main topic "Challenges for monetary policy in a rapidly changing world". The forum will conclude with speeches by the heads of the Fed, the ECB, and the Bank of England on Wednesday, so investors should keep a close eye on that. Also, this week, the US and Canadian GDP data will be released. Of course, investors should not miss the meeting of OPEC+ countries, which can have a significant impact on oil prices.

On Thursday, US central bank governor Jerome Powell said to the House of Representatives that The Federal Reserve's commitment to curbing 40-year inflation is "unconditional," but it carries the risk of rising unemployment. On Wednesday, Powell told the US Senate Banking Committee that the Fed is not trying to trigger a recession but is "certainly possible" due to global events beyond its control, particularly the effects of the war in Ukraine and the COVID-19 pandemic. At the same time, Powell expects US economic growth to accelerate in the year's second half. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.64% and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.95%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.62%.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell visited the Senate Banking Committee yesterday and will visit the House of Representatives today. Mr. Powell noted that the Fed is "strongly committed" to curbing inflation and pointed out that at this point, the economy is strong enough to withstand the interest rate increases used as a tool to achieve this goal. Powell also said that the pace of future rate hikes would depend on what inflation numbers they see. But the possibility of a recession due to rising interest rates remains. At the same time, a Fed rate hike will not likely result in lower gas or food prices. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.15%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.13%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.15% on Wednesday.

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.15% and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.45%. The NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 2.51% on Tuesday. All 3 indices closed the day in the plus. US Fed member Barkin said yesterday he supported a 75bp interest rate hike at the June meeting. Barkin also pointed out that US inflation is broad-based, and it is important to get back to the 2% target as soon as possible. Barkin will likely support another 0.75% rate hike at the next meeting. The US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will be addressing Congress tonight, where investors will be looking for additional clues as to whether another 75 basis point rate hike is expected at the Fed's July meeting. If Powell is hawkish tonight, investors could see another jump in the US dollar as government bond yields rise again. This will push gold down.

The US stock market did not trade yesterday due to the banking holiday. Stock markets in Europe traded higher yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 1.06%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.64%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) jumped by 1.72%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) was up 1.50% on Monday.

The Fed and other global central banks are trying to suppress inflation by aggressively raising interest rates. Major US stock indexes fell for the third week in a row due to concerns about the growing recession probability. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.13% (-4.03% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.22% (-4.25% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) gained 1.43% (-1.72% for the week). All three indices were down on the week.

This week's primary focus is Jerome Powell's speech to Congress and ECB officials. Friday's Eurozone inflation data showed a sharp increase in consumer prices, so now it is essential to see how aggressively the ECB will behave and whether there are discussions about a 0.5% rate hike at the July meeting. Also, the UK, Canada, and Japan will update the inflation data for May, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will publish the minutes of the monetary policy meeting.

The US initial jobless claims were 229,000, down 3,000 from the previous week. Thus, the US labor market remains strong. But as fears of recession intensified following central bank actions worldwide, the US stock indices closed on Thursday with a sharp decline. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.41% and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 3.24%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 4.08%. At the end of the day, all three indices were down.

The Federal Reserve surprised markets on Wednesday with a larger-than-expected 0.75% rate hike as sustained high inflation forced the Central Bank to make its biggest rate hike since 1994. This was more hawkish than the economists' expectations, who had forecasted a 0.5% increase. A few weeks before the decision, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Committee was not actively considering a 0.75% rate hike, and made it clear that a 0.5% hike would be appropriate at the June and July meetings. But several signs that inflation may persist longer than feared led the central bank to accelerate the pace of monetary tightening in order to keep a lag in the fight against inflation.

US stock indices continued to decline on Tuesday as investors are preparing for an aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve today. The US central bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points after a sharper-than-expected rise in consumer prices in May. Also, investors' attention was focused on the Producer Price Index (PPI), which could show the Fed's additional inflation criteria. However, the data did not provide any new clues to the markets. The US PPI for May was 10.8% y/y, below expectations and unchanged from April's data. In addition, the core PPI for May was below consensus expectations. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.49%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.37%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 0.67%. At the end of the day, all three indices were down. The Treasury yields reached a ten-year high, and the dollar reached a 20-year peak.

On Monday, the US indices fell sharply and moved into bear market territory after stocks of rising companies collapsed. Treasury yields rose on expectations that the Federal Reserve will be tougher on inflation. The yield on 10-year Treasuries rose to its highest level since 2011 amid fears that the Fed will be forced to resort to an acceleration of monetary tightening after Friday's unexpected rise in inflation data. According to the WSJ, Fed officials may approve a 0.75% interest rate hike at their meeting tomorrow. As the stock market closed Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.79%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 3.87%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 2.22% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices decreased, and the S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) hit a 52-week low on Monday.

The US stock indexes recorded their most significant weekly percentage decline since January and fell sharply Friday after the May inflation report dashed hopes that price pressures may have peaked. Data released on Friday showed that US consumer inflation jumped to 8.6% y/y in May, the biggest gain since 1981. Gasoline prices hit a record high, and the cost of food rose sharply. The core Consumer Price Index (which excludes food and fuel prices) failed to fall below 6.0%. Rapid price pressures force consumers to change their spending habits, heightening recession fears. The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for June also hit a new record, falling to 50.2 from 58.1. This situation caused the dollar index to spike and stock indices to fall. At the closing of the stock exchange on Friday Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.73% (-4.96% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) fell by 2.91% (-5.66% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 3.52% (-7.05% for the week). All three indices were down for the week.

A week full of important events is coming. Investors will be most interested in the Fed interest rate meeting, expecting a 0.5% rate hike. Also, this week there will be meetings of the Bank of England and the Central Banks of Switzerland and Japan. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates for the fifth time in a row amid a growing cost of living crisis. Traders' attention should also be focused on speeches by heads of central banks who often tell which sentiments prevail inside. Special attention should also be paid to the inflation data in Europe, which will be published at the end of the week.

The US indices fell sharply yesterday ahead of inflation data. At the close of the US stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) fell by 1.94%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 2.38%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 2.75%. Analysts expect US inflation to add 0.7% for the month, but given yesterday's drop in the indices, the figure may be worse than expected, as investors tend to price in the worst-case scenarios. If, on the contrary, the Consumer Price Index falls and inflation starts to suppress, in this case, the Fed might postpone some of its future interest rate hikes or act less aggressively, and that would already be positive for stock indices.

The broader tech sector was under pressure from rising Treasury yields yesterday, with 10-year bond yields exceeding 3% amid continued bets that the Federal Reserve will stay on course to raise rates to fight inflation. The disappointing comments triggered a wave of analyst downgrades on Wall Street. As a result, US stock indices fell yesterday. At the close of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.81%, while the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.08%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.73% yesterday.

US stock indices increased yesterday and closed higher for the second day in a row amid gains in technology and energy stocks. The Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.80% at the close of the day, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.95%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 0.94% yesterday. The US is currently facing an "unacceptable level of inflation," Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said at Tuesday's Senate Finance Committee hearing. At the hearing, Yellen praised the state of the economic recovery, which she said has been marked by strong economic growth and historically low unemployment, but added that challenges remain. The US economy faces macroeconomic challenges, Yellen said, including unacceptable levels of inflation, as well as headwinds from the impact of the pandemic on supply chains and the effects of supply-side disruptions in oil and food markets resulting from Russia's aggression in Ukraine.

At the close of the US stock market on Monday the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.05%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.31%. The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) increased by 0.40% yesterday. At the end of the day, all three indices closed in small plus. On Monday, the Federal Reserve announced that it would release the results of its annual stress test of the nation's largest banks on June 23. Investors closely watch the test results, which examine how large bank portfolios would behave in a hypothetical recession. It shows how much capital banks would need to hold as a safety cushion in case of losses.

At the close of the stock market on Friday the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.05% (+0.50% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.63% (+0.76% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 2.47% (+1.21% for the week). All three indices ended the week in small gains. Despite concerns about slowing economic growth and high inflation, the US economy added 390,000 jobs in May, better than expected. Weaker regional PMIs in May and a sharp drop in home sales suggest that higher interest rates, higher costs, and global uncertainty are beginning to undermine the momentum of the US recovery. However, the labor market is still a pillar.

The economic calendar for the upcoming week is not as dense as the previous one, but this week is more serious in terms of the number of important events. The main event will be the CPI data (inflation rate) in the United States and China. Analysts expect the US Consumer Price Index to remain at the same level as the PCE index two weeks ago, indicating signs of a slowdown in price growth. The focus of investors should also be on the ECB and RBA meetings. The European Central Bank is becoming hawkish, but analysts believe there will be no significant rate hike at the current meeting. The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to continue raising interest rates.

The US stock market closed yesterday with an increase. The Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.33% at the stock market's close, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) jumped by 1.84%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) increased by 2.69%. The Fed officials Brainard and Mester confirmed that the Fed is planning to raise the interest rate by 50 basis points at the next two meetings. This scenario is already priced in, so the indices continued to recover amid the absence of negative news on the economy. An important jobs report (nonfarm payrolls) will be released today. US private sector jobs added much less than expected in May, according to ADP, which could indicate labor demand is starting to slow amid higher interest rates and tighter financial conditions. This suggests that the US central bank is trying to reduce labor demand without raising the unemployment rate too high.

The US stock market closed yesterday in red territory. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.16%, while the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.30%.The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) was down 1.49%. Remarks by JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon about the economy raised new recession fears. In turn, the ISM manufacturing index and hawkish speeches of Fed officials yesterday were optimistic for the US dollar. Former New York Fed President William Dudley pointed out yesterday that the Fed needs to tighten financial conditions. The only way to do that is to raise interest rates substantially. Waller from the Fed said he supports tightening policy by another 50 basis points throughout several meetings. The ultra-hawkish Bullard noted that the current macroeconomic environment in the US is undermining the Fed's confidence in inflation and that inflation expectations could lose support without action from the Fed, so aggressively raising rates to 3.5% is needed. As soon as possible, like this year.

The US stock market closed yesterday in a negative area. At closing time on Friday Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.67% (-0.22% for the month), S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.63% (-0.56% for the month). Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) lost 0.41% yesterday (-0.63% for the month). All three indices were down on the month. Among the factors that put pressure on the US equity market was the fear that the high inflation would negatively affect corporate earnings as the Q2 earnings season is just around the corner.

The US stock market did not trade yesterday due to the holiday. Nevertheless, index futures on Asian and European sessions demonstrated growth, so if there will be no sharp movements at the European session today, the US stock indices will open with a gap. European stock markets were mostly rising yesterday. German DAX (DE30) gained 0.79%, French CAC 40 (FR40) added 0.72%, Spanish IBEX 35 (ES35) decreased by 0.03%, British FTSE 100 (UK100) increased by 0.19%. Monday's data showed that inflation in Germany reached another all-time high (7.4% → 7.9% y/y), while Spanish CPI data was also higher than estimated (8.3% → 8.7% y/y). France and Italy will also release their data today, and then the Eurozone CPI data will be updated. Analysts expect inflation in Europe to rise from 7.5% to 7.8% y/y. The ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting next week. Therefore, if Eurozone inflation is higher than expected today, the ECB may decide to act more aggressively. ECB President Christine Lagarde said last week that the Central Bank’s deposit rate should start to rise in July, and a significant rise in the Eurozone consumer price index could strengthen the case for an aggressive rate hike. Also, today there will be other important data on Europe to pay attention to. In particular, GDP data for the last quarter.

At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.76% (+5.79% for the week), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 2.47% (+6.09% for the week). The Technology Index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 3.33% (+6.45% for the week). All three indices ended the week in the green territory. The latest economic data, and comments of the Fed officials contributed to the positivity. The Core PCE index, part of the Fed's inflation measures, was 4.9% y/y in April versus 5.2% y/y in March. This is the first decline in the index in 17 months. When viewed in context with other measures of inflation, this may indicate that US inflation is slowing. This is a good sign that the Fed might not have to tighten monetary policy after the summer meetings. And that's a positive for stock indices.

This week promises to be volatile due to a lot of important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the main event of the week, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed’s monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report remains robust in May. The Eurozone is to release its latest inflation estimate on Tuesday, with economists expecting the consumer price index to hit another record high of 7.7% in May, up from 7.4% in April. The Bank of Canada will hold an interest rate meeting. Analysts predict that the bank will raise the rate by 0.5%. As a rule, rising interest rates is accompanied by a strengthening of the national currency. Investors should also keep a close eye on the monthly OPEC+ meeting, which greatly impacts oil pricing.

Stronger quarterly results from retailers and a rally in tech-led stocks ended their longest weekly losing streak since 1932. The US indices traded higher yesterday. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.61%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.99%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.68%. US GDP fell by 1.5% in the first quarter, worse than expected. Initial jobless claims fell to 210,000 (-8,000 for the week). The US GDP decline amid a strengthening labor market points to pre-recession signs. On the other hand, the decline in GDP is due to the fact that the US spent more on imports than other countries on US exports. This led to a trade deficit, which contributed to the contraction of GDP. US pending home sales fell by 3.9% in April. This is the sixth consecutive month of decline. As mortgage rates rise, analysts predict existing home sales will decline 9% in 2022, and home price growth will drop to 5% by the end of the year.

US indices were positive yesterday. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 0.60%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.95%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.51%. The FOMC protocol confirmed that most participants are prone to raise rates by 50 basis points at their next two meetings, but after that, the Fed is likely to pause for a potential reassessment of the pace of tightening. The protocol also states that the Fed will begin cutting its balance sheet on June 1 at a rate of $47.5 billion per month.

US indices were trading yesterday without a single trend. By the close of trading, the Dow Jones index (US30) added 0.15%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 0.81%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 2.35%. A Bank of America managers survey showed that investors are becoming increasingly bearish on tech stocks as the US shows more signs of a recession. Monthly new home sales in the United States fell to a two-year low in April, reinforcing the notion of a slowing housing market due to rising interest and mortgage rates.

At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 1.98%, and the S&P 500 index (US500) added 1.86%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) gained 0.30% on Monday. US President Joe Biden said he was ready to enter into a military conflict with China "in case of an invasion" of Taiwan. In turn, the Chinese Foreign Ministry responded: "Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. The Taiwan issue is a purely internal affair for China. China has no room for compromise or concession on issues touching on its core interests of sovereignty and territorial integrity. No one should underestimate the firm resolve, staunch will, and strong ability of the Chinese people in defending national sovereignty and territorial integrity".

According to former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman Stephen Roche, stagflation in the US is inevitable. He warns that the US is on a dangerous path that leads to higher prices combined with slower economic growth. "The markets are not even close to discounting the full extent of what's going to be required to bring the demand side under control... That underscores the deep hole Jerome Powell is in right now."

Investors will focus this week on FOMC minutes to get more information on the US central bank's reaction to soaring inflation. US personal income and spending data, which the Fed considers to adjust policy, will also be an important economic event. The UK and Europe manufacturing PMI data should also focus on traders. Investors should also closely monitor the New Zealand Reserve Bank meeting as RBNZ plans to aggressively raise interest rates through the end of the year.

Major US indices continued to fall yesterday as investors continue to fear that a rate hike by the Federal Reserve to fight rapid inflation will lead to a recession in the economy. The US stock market saw another sell-off yesterday. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.75%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.58%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.26%.

The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates non-stop and even slow the US economy if necessary to reduce inflation from its current 40-year highs. Record high fuel prices accelerate inflation and could eventually lead to lower energy demand as consumers find it increasingly difficult to pay those prices. US economic growth this year is likely to be 2.4%, about 0.8% below the Fed's estimate, as the war in Ukraine causes more global negative shocks than expected, S&P Global said in its forecast.

US retail sales data came in better than expected and industrial production increased for the fourth month in a row. The solid economic data was released just hours before Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell pledged to keep raising rates until inflation cools down. GDP forecasts at the start of the second quarter point to a US economic recovery. Analysts expect US economic activity to rebound in the second quarter.

Investors’ fears of a slowdown in the US economic growth increased after New York's manufacturing activity fell by 36.2 points to -11.6 in May. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said that current Fed leaders have been too slow in responding to rising US inflation and as a result have faced a period of stagflation (a combination of stagnant growth and high inflation). According to Bernanke, Powell and his colleagues decided to respond to rising inflation gradually because they did not want to shock markets with a repeat of the so-called tantrum in 2013 when Treasury yields rose sharply under his leadership. At the same time, he warned that the result of this slow reaction would be poor economic performance.

According to the data released on Friday, the University of Michigan's sentiment index fell to 59.1 from 65.2 in April. The figure was lower than all economists surveyed by Bloomberg, which had an average score of 64. The US consumer sentiment fell to its lowest level since 2011 as remaining concerns about inflation clouded Americans' views of the economy.

The week ahead finds a busy economic calendar alongside a series of Fed and ECB appearances that remain in focus given uncertainties over the pace of monetary policy tightening in the US and the EU. Both US and China will update retail sales and industrial production figures for April. In Europe, eurozone Q1 GDP and inflation numbers will be published. Also, the UK, Japan, and Canada will update the inflation data for April.

More and more economic experts believe that the Federal Reserve's plan to curb inflation may lead to a recession in the economy. To fight inflation, the Fed has launched its most aggressive monetary tightening campaign in decades, planning multiple rate hikes of half a percent in a row and $9 trillion in cuts to its balance sheet. But this tightening campaign is causing cracks in financial markets and steep increases in mortgage rates and other forms of borrowing. This could lead to an economic crisis in the coming months and put pressure on the Fed, both because of inflation and the negative side effects of higher rates. The Economic data is also not encouraging. The US producer price index, also called "factory" inflation or wholesale inflation, increased to 11% in annual terms. Last month's growth was 0.5%. According to many analysts, the producer price index is a more accurate indicator of the inflation faced by businesses and retailers that suffers the most from supply chain disruptions. The initial jobless claims increased to 203,000 (+1,000 for the last week). A strong labor market amid rising inflation is the first sign of an impending recession. Such signals scare investors enough to sell off their portfolios, which leads to a decrease in stock indices. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, the S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.13%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.06%.

The Dow Jones Index (US30) fell to a fresh yearly low yesterday as CPI data showed that inflation remains near a 40-year high. The US inflation rate fell to 8.3% from 8.5%, but the data was worse than analysts' expectations of 8.1%. Fed officials indicate that inflation has been more resilient, and more action may be needed. Last week, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the Fed is not seriously considering a 75 basis point hike at its next two meetings. But after yesterday's inflation report, policymakers' opinions may change. Persistent inflation in the US has increased investors' fears about an aggressive monetary policy tightening, so the stock market saw another sell-off yesterday.

Yesterday, the US indices traded cautiously and had no unified dynamics. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.26%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.25%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped 0.98%. According to hedge fund strategists, investors are looking for signs of a potential peak in inflationary pressures, and if today's data shows a decline in consumer prices, stock indices will show a strong rally. On the other hand, if the inflation data are worse than expected or there is a new acceleration of inflation, the stock market may see a strong sell-off.

Credit Suisse last week lowered its forecast for the S&P 500 Index. Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Bank of America Corp., and Morgan Stanley also forecast that the stock market will struggle this year. The Federal Reserve is in the midst of a cycle of aggressive rate hikes that are expected to put pressure on US corporate earnings and economic growth. This is already weakening the support of the stock market, causing stock indices to decline steadily for weeks, while the dollar index shows growth. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.99%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 3.20%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 4.29% on Monday.

Last week, the Nasdaq (US100) and S&P 500 (US500) indices fell for the fifth week in a row and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) for the sixth. This is the longest losing streak for the S&P 500 since mid-2011 and the Nasdaq since late 2012. Investors are concerned that aggressive tightening by the Fed could lead the economy to recession. As the stock market closed on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.30% (-0.24% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.57% (-0.18% for the week), and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.40% on Friday and became the fall leader (-1.52%) for the week.

This week will be less eventful than the previous one. The main event will be the CPI data (inflation rate) in the United States. Analysts forecast a slowdown in inflation year on year from 8.5% to 8.1%. If the data is worse than expected, the stock market may react negatively. On Wednesday, China will also release inflation data, which will show the impact of the Covid-19 lockdown on the world's second-largest economy. Investors should also focus on the speeches of the Fed and the ECB officials. It should also be noted that financial markets are now very sensitive to news about the war in Ukraine and the situation in the oil market.

On Thursday, US stock indices ended with a decline amid participants rethinking the outcome of the Federal Reserve's meeting in May. Hedge fund strategists believe Jerome Powell was hawkish on Wednesday, causing the US dollar to return to an uptrend yesterday and the stock market to see its biggest daily drop of the year. After the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) lost 3.12%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 3.56%, and the technology index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 4.99%. At the same time, the day before, the indices showed the highest rise since 2020.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the second time this year. As expected, the increase was 0.5%. But Chairman Jerome Powell eased investors' fears of more aggressive rate hikes in future meetings. This gave investors great optimism, leading to a surge in major stock indices. After the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 2.81%, the S&P 500 (US500) added 2.99%, and the technology index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 3.19%.

Today the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and publish its monetary policy minutes. Wall Street has a broad consensus that the central bank will raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to reduce rising inflationary pressures. This would be the second adjustment during the current tightening cycle but the first non-standard increase since early 2000. But this will not surprise the market since the March FOMC meeting minutes showed that "many participants would prefer a 50 basis point hike." Special attention should be paid to the press conference at which Jerome Powell will talk about the future outlook for the economy. If the future outlook is unfavorable, the dollar index may see a new upward momentum while the stock market decreases. If the outlook is favorable, the dollar index could fall sharply, and the stock market could jump as a negative scenario already in prices.

Increased inflationary pressures caused by the war in Ukraine, as well as supply chain problems related to the pandemic and restrictions in China, have helped raise bond rates and strengthened expectations of Federal Reserve policy tightening. Investors continue to expect more and more central banks to tighten monetary policy in response to high inflation.

Last week ended with reports from major tech companies, which should largely determine the future of US indices. Facebook, Qualcomm, Microsoft, and Apple showed positive reports. Google and Amazon showed negative reports. As a result, markets closed last week with a loss. Economic prospects are still overshadowed by concerns about the economic impact of the war in Ukraine, rising bond yields, new coronavirus restrictions in China, which could hinder hamper improving global supply chains, and more aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve. At the close of the stock market on Friday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.77% (-2.24% for the week, -5.57% for the month), and the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 3.63% (-2.90% for the week, -9.84% for the month). The technology index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 4.17% on Friday (-3.25% for the week, -15.12% for the month).

This week promises to be volatile due to several important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week's main event, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report in April remains robust. Traders should pay special attention to the interest rate decisions of the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analysts expect to see higher interest rates in both. As a rule, rising interest rates are accompanied by the strengthening of the national currency and the stock market's weakness. Investors should also keep an eye on the monthly OPEC+ meeting, which will strongly impact oil pricing. Traders should also not forget about the US earning season. Investors still believe that the reporting season will keep the US market from falling. Companies such as Pfizer, AMD, Starbucks, Airbnb, Booking, Uber, Moderna, Alibaba, and others will report this week.

US GDP in the first quarter fell unexpectedly by 1.4% in the first quarter, marking a sharp slowdown in economic growth. But despite the disappointing numbers, markets paid little attention to the report, with stock and bond yields mostly rising. PayPal stock increased more than 10% after its first-quarter results beat analysts' forecasts, helped by strong growth in payments volume and net new active accounts. McDonald's Q1 revenue rose 11%, but net income was down. The wave of positive quarterly corporate results helped offset an unexpected slowdown in US economic growth. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 1.85%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 2.47%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 3.06%.

Investors are increasingly concerned that the devastation of the Russian and Ukrainian economies and the looming economic damage in China due to the lockdowns will lead to further supply shocks, which will further spur commodity-fuelled inflation. But many experts believe that such a scenario is alreadу in prices, so investors should focus on the reporting period in the US and Europe.

On Tuesday, Google missed Wall Street estimates for quarterly sales, the first drop since the pandemic began, as advertisers cut spending amid growing fears of a global economic slowdown. The company's stock fell more than 8% in the late session. Microsoft has exceeded Wall Street's expectations for quarterly revenue, driven by high demand for the software giant's cloud services because of the pandemic-induced shift to hybrid operating models. But despite such positivity, the company's stock fell more than 3.5% after closing. Amid fears that Elon Musk will have to pledge or sell most of Tesla's shares to buy the social network Twitter, the electric car maker's shares fell by 12% yesterday. In addition to the drop in the tech sector, other companies' financial performance also exacerbated the sell-off caused by the downturn in regional banks amid weaker quarterly results and falling Treasury bond yields. After the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 2.38%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 2.81%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 3.95%.

Despite concerns about a slowdown in the global economy, US indices increased on Monday as investors are optimistic ahead of a crucial week of the quarterly results of major tech companies. Large tech companies caused a broader market reversal, driven by Alphabet and Microsoft's gains ahead of today's quarterly earnings. At the stock market's close, the Dow Jones Index (US30) added 0.71%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 0.58%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.29% yesterday. But despite the rebound, some Wall Street analysts say there are more declines ahead as the selling conditions are not yet at an extreme level.

After Powell's hawkish speech last week, analysts predict an almost 100% chance of a double interest rate hike in May, June, and July. At the same time, Powell has raised doubts that the Fed will be able to overcome inflation without throwing the economy into recession. This situation frightened investors, who began to sell-off at the end of last week. At the closing of the stock exchange on Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 2.82% (-1.74% for the week), and S&P 500 (US500) lost 2.77% (-2.60% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.55% on Friday and ended the week with a loss of -3.60%.

A number of Q1 GDP data will be released this week in the US, Canada, Germany, the Eurozone, South Korea, and Taiwan. Initial inflation data are highly anticipated in the Eurozone report, as well as Australia and Singapore CPI figures reports. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan meeting will be held to update its outlook. The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI will also examine China’s manufacturing health amid the latest COVID-19 disruptions. Nearly 180 companies in the S&P 500, which is worth about half the market value of the benchmark index, are expected to release their results this week, including the four largest US companies by market capitalization: Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Google.

The US stock indices opened yesterday with gains thanks to corporate earnings and strong unemployment data but began to decline in anticipation of statements by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Powell confirmed a 0.5% interest rate hike at next month's policy meeting. Growing fears over increasingly aggressive FED policy have hit Treasuries, especially in the short term, leading to a stock sell-off at the end of the day. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.05% and the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 1.48%. The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.07%.

A Fed survey shows that US firms are facing a labour shortage. "Supply chain delays, labour market tensions, and elevated production costs continue to pose challenges to firms' ability to meet demand," the Fed survey says. Along with record inflation, this situation could lead to a significant slowdown in economic growth if the Fed fails to make a "soft landing" of the economy. The US stock indices traded mixed yesterday. At the close of the stock market yesterday the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 0.71%, while the S&P 500 index (US500) decreased by 0.06%. The technology index NASDAQ (US100) fell by 1.22%.

Inflationary pressures caused by the war in Ukraine are increasing market expectations for an aggressive response from US monetary policymakers, leading to higher US Treasury yields, a rising dollar index, and a falling yen. The 10-year US Treasury bonds reached 2.9% yesterday for the first time since 2018, but that didn't spoil investor sentiment as their focus is now on quarterly earnings, and investors are betting on growth in the technology sector. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.61%, and the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.61%. NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.15%.

Fears of an impending recession are growing in the United States. Goldman Sachs predicts that a significant narrowing of the gap between the number of vacancies in the labor market and the number of workers is a sign of the beginning of the recession. The US Federal Reserve will have the difficult task of tightening its monetary policy enough to reduce inflation without causing an economic slowdown in the United States. Despite all the assurances from the Fed officials that they can tighten monetary policy and reduce inflation without destroying the economy (economists call it a "soft landing"), this idea raises many skeptics, including former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers. He believes that the recession is now the most likely outcome for the US economy soon. But it is worth noting that this will not happen tomorrow or next week. The deviation is significant. Analytical houses predict the beginning of a recession in the US in the next 1-2 years.

The US earning season has begun. Several blue chips from the Dow Jones index (US30) will report this week. Johnson & Johnson, Procter & Gamble, IBM, and American Express are among them. Investors are also expecting reports from streaming giant Netflix and electric car maker Tesla. But it should be noted that American companies are sharply deteriorating their outlook on their reports. The indicators have already reached the 2008-2009 crisis level in terms of corporate sentiment.

Last week, investors focused mainly on the US Consumer Price Index. Сonsumer inflation in the US rose to 8.5% year on year, the highest level since 1981. Investors now expect the Fed to be more aggressive with monetary policy. The probability of a 0.5% interest rate hike increased to 80% at the Fed meetings in May and June. Meanwhile, some Fed officials are already calling for a balance sheet reduction after the May meeting. Investors should focus on inflation data in Canada and New Zealand this week. Rising inflation is always a reason for the central bank to tighten monetary policy, so high inflation is often accompanied by rising national currency. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will address the International Monetary Fund on Thursday. He will participate in a panel discussion on the global economy with European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and other central bank policymakers. Several Dow Jones blue chips are due to report within the next week. Traders should also monitor the oil market. The ongoing war in Ukraine is already forcing European countries to think about a complete oil embargo on Russian energy resources, which will undoubtedly slow down the region's economy and cause recessionary sentiment.

Rising Treasury bond yields, which tend to boost banks' lending margins, are forcing investors to bet that the Federal Reserve will aggressively use monetary tightening to curb inflationary pressures. The pace of yield growth put growing market sectors at risk, with large tech companies leading the decline yesterday. At the end of the day yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.33%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 1.21%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.14%.

The growth of yields on US government bonds stopped, which led to a decrease in the dollar index and, as a result, to the growth of major indices. At the end of the day yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.02%, the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.13%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.03%. JPMorgan started the quarterly earnings season with disappointing results. JPMorgan's first-quarter earnings fell by 42%. The report missed Wall Street estimates due to higher-than-expected debt reserves as the bank forecasted a higher probability of declining reserves risk.

The US consumer price index rose to 8.5% y/y, beating economists' forecasts of 8.4%, but investors' attention was focused on the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices. The core CPI increased by 0.3% in March, slower than the 0.5% forecast by economists. Amid a jump in inflation, the dollar index rose sharply yesterday, causing major indices to fall. At the end of the day, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.6% yesterday, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.34%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 0.30%.

The US Treasury bond yields jumped to a three-year high ahead of US inflation data. The Fed’s plan to curb inflation is subjected to additional analysis today. Analysts forecast the US inflation rate to show an increase of 8.4% year on year. The 10-year bond yields increased yesterday from 2.40% to 2.74%. Rising government bond yields tend to affect major stock indices negatively. At the end of the day yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 1.19%, the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.69%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 2.18%.

This week, investors will focus on inflation data in the US, UK, Germany, and China. In February, the US inflation reached 7.9%, the largest annual increase in 40 years. On Wednesday, inflation data are expected to show that the consumer price index in March will reach 8.5% in annual terms as the war in Ukraine has raised commodity prices significantly. The strong inflation figure confirms arguments for the Federal Reserve's more aggressive rate hike, probably increasing investor fears that tighter monetary policy could significantly slow down the economy. Also, this week, the central banks of Canada and New Zealand will hold meetings on interest rate decisions. Analysts predict interest rate hikes in both cases amid rising inflation worldwide. According to surveys, markets estimate a 90% chance that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will raise rates by half a percent and a more than 80% chance that the Bank of Canada will do the same.

Last week, investors focused mainly on FOMC minutes, which showed that the Fed would raise rates more aggressively amid a strong labor market and high inflation. Fed officials also reaffirmed the committee's intention to take a more aggressive approach, including cutting the balance sheet. This week, investors will focus on inflation data in the United States, Britain, Germany, and China. Also, this week the central banks of Canada and New Zealand will meet on interest rate decisions. Analysts predict interest rate hikes in both cases. Investors will also focus on the ECB meeting, but analysts do not expect changes, given the conservatism of European politicians. Investors should also watch the start of the US earning period in the first quarter of 2022.

Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 166,000 last week, repeating March's low, which was the lowest since 1968. The total number of people receiving assistance is now 1.7 million, with job openings still at extremely high levels. Analysts believe this strong labor market will drive up inflation. The dollar index and US Treasury bond yields continue to rise. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans and Atlanta Fed President Rafael Bostic made a dovish counterargument on Thursday. Policymakers believe that normalizing monetary policy is best achieved by raising interest rates, rather than by reducing the balance sheet. Such rhetoric has somewhat reassured investors.

On Wednesday, US stock markets opened lower again, intensifying the decline. Another FOMC official, Harker, said yesterday that he expects the Fed's balance sheet to reduce soon. "I see US GDP growth slowing to about 3% – 3.5% this year. I don't see high inflation going away quickly. High fuel prices will be with us for a while," Harker added. Later comments were echoed by Kansas City Fed President Esther George and San Francisco President Mary Daley. Deutsche Bank analyst concluded that there is now a high risk of a recession in the US economy in 2023 as the Fed is forced to raise interest rates above their neutral level to lower inflation.

Financial markets are now susceptible to verbal interventions by the US Federal Reserve officials. Yesterday, after Lael Brainard's speech, US indices fell sharply. Ms. Brainard is known for her dovish stance on monetary policy, but yesterday her tone changed to hawkish. "Inflation is very high and could go even higher, which would require permanent interest rate increases and balance sheet cuts," Brainard said on Tuesday. "To reduce inflation, the Fed will continue to methodically tighten monetary policy through a series of interest rate hikes and rapid balance sheet cuts immediately following our May meeting," the policymaker added.

Investors remain concerned about the war in Ukraine, which has sent commodity prices skyrocketing, worsening the outlook for already high inflation. The 10-year US Treasury bond yields rose on Monday, while the 2-year/10-year yield curve remained inverted. The curve inversion is seen as a harbinger of a recession in the next year or two. But there is another opinion. An inverted Treasury yield curve tells investors more about inflation than recession prospects, says an experienced Wall Street strategist. "The 2/10 inversion of the nominal Treasury bond curve does not mean slower growth, but rather lower inflation in 2023 and beyond," wrote Barry Knapp, managing partner of Ironsides Economics.

"The Federal Reserve needs to move monetary policy towards a more neutral stance, but the pace at which it tightens credit will depend on how the economy reacts," New York Fed President John Williams said on Saturday. The average neutral rate rating by policymakers is 2.4%. Currently, traders believe the Fed will achieve this by the end of this year. That rate will require a 0.5% increase at two of the remaining six Fed meetings this year, and the first is expected to take place at the May 4 Fed meeting.

Last week, investors' attention was focused on inflation data in European countries, US labor market data, geopolitics, and the OPEC+ meeting. This week will be calmer in terms of economic events. The Reserve Bank of Australia will update its interest rate on Tuesday. Analysts do not expect any surprises and believe that the rate will remain unchanged. The March FOMC minutes will be released on Wednesday, where investors can see signs that the Fed will aggressively raise interest rates. Analysts believe that improving labor market indicators contribute to the Fed's half-percent rate hike at its next meeting on May 4. Currently, the probability of such a scenario is estimated at 75.5%. This could lead to a sharp surge in volatility this week. Investors' attention should also be focused on the ECB minutes and speeches by ECB officials. A sharp rise in inflation in Europe could lead to a revision of the ECB's monetary policy. It should also be noted that financial markets are now very sensitive to news of the war in Ukraine and the situation in the oil market.

On Thursday, global stock indices fell amid fears of recession, and Russia's invasion of Ukraine boosted sales. Oil prices fell more than $6 after the US announced a record release of its strategic reserves. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.56% yesterday, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 1.57%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 1.54%. Analysts see a stock market downturn over the next two quarters as record inflation in the US forces the Fed to aggressively raise interest rates, which will eventually lead to higher government bond yields, the rising dollar index, and lower stock indices. Investors need to balance their portfolios.

In April, private-sector job growth was surprisingly positive, but fourth-quarter GDP was revised down unexpectedly by a tenth of a percentage point. Investors also continue to monitor the US debt market. Yield spreads on 10- and 2-year Treasury bonds continue to show inversion, raising serious concerns about an impending recession. The Federal Reserve may be tightening policy too aggressively in the near term, and analyst houses are already predicting the next three 0.5% interest rate hikes. "Given the state of the economy, inflation at its highest level in 40 years, and an unemployment rate close to a record low, it is appropriate to move quickly to neutral policy," Kansas City Fed President Esther George said on Wednesday. Thomas Barkin, Head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, said he was ready to raise rates by half a point at the next meeting.

The S&P 500 increased on Tuesday as rising hopes for a de-escalation of the Ukraine-Russia conflict helped stocks shrug off further bond market signals of a potential recession. All three US indices closed in green territory yesterday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 0.97%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) increased by 1.23%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 1.84%. The yield on 10-year Treasury bonds temporarily fell below the 2-year Treasury yield for the first time since 2019. Such an event is called a yield curve inversion. It's should be noted that a yield curve inversion has preceded every recession in the past 40 years.

Yesterday, all three US indices closed in the green zone. Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.27%, S&P 500 (US500) added 0.71%, the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.31% on Monday. US government bond yields remain close to a three-year high as investors gear up for the Federal Reserve's rate hike campaign. This plays in favor of a stronger dollar index against other currencies. US President Joe Biden submitted to Congress a budget proposal for the next fiscal year beginning October 1. Under Biden's budget plan, corporate executives would be required to own the company's shares they received for several years after purchasing it and would be prohibited from selling shares for several years after the share buyback. This would deprive corporations of using profits to buy back shares for the benefit of executives. The plan also includes $5.79 trillion in defense spending, aid to Ukraine, higher taxes on the richest Americans and companies, and a reduction in the national deficit.

The US stock market traded inconsistently last week. By the close of the stock market on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.44% (+0.55% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) added 0.51% (+1.81% for the week). The NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) decreased by 0.16% on Friday but became the growth leader by the end of the week with +2.23%. According to analysts at Bank of America, the stock market is likely to rise for several more weeks and provide investors with a good opportunity for a sell-off. Tightening monetary policy to combat high inflation and lower corporate earnings growth is likely to lead to a corrective movement in stock indices this year, so investors should rebalance their portfolios while they can.

This week, the focus of investors will be the monthly labor market report in the US (non-farm payrolls). This report could help markets understand if the Fed's rate hike roadmap is too aggressive or not aggressive enough. Economists expect the US economy to add 475,000 jobs after adding 678,000 in February. Before that, there will be February data on personal income and spending, which the Fed considers when adjusting inflation estimates. Rising oil prices are fueling inflationary expectations, so Thursday's OPEC+ meeting should be the focus for investors. Another event for traders to pay attention to this week is the inflation rate in the Eurozone. A sharp rise in inflation could change the ECB's view of monetary policy towards faster tightening.

By the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 1.02%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 1.43%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 1.93%. All three major indices closed the day in the green zone. The US stock market was up all week. However, this growth is likely to be temporary, as almost all US Federal Reserve officials are inclined to move into the process of rapidly rising interest rates and start reducing assets on the balance sheet from May. At the same time, some officials propose to raise rates by 0.5% at once at the May, June, July, and September meetings. Such monetary policy would boost the dollar index and government bond yields and hurt the stock market. Therefore, from a fundamental point of view, investors should balance their portfolios before a possible correction in the indices this year.

On Wednesday, the US stock market fell on the back of "hawkish" statements by the Federal Reserve (Fed) members and increased fears of rising inflation in the US due to rising oil prices. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly and Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester were the other FOMC policymakers who indicated that the central bank plans to raise interest rates on a larger scale at its May meeting. Analysts on Wednesday updated their Fed forecast in light of Powell's comments and expect a 50 basis point rate hike at both in May and June meetings. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.29%, the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 1.23%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 1.32%. All three major indices closed the day in minus.

Yesterday, by the close of trading the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.74%, the S&P 500 (US500) added 1.13%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.95%. All three major indices closed the day in positive territory. "The market is holding up pretty well, given that Russia continues to wage war with Ukraine and the Fed has started raising interest rates to combat high inflation," said Scott Wren, senior global markets strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. He also added that "a really good US labor market helps support stocks, while investors expect inflation to slow over the next two years." Meanwhile, analysts are confident that the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in May has increased following comments from Powell and Bullard on Monday and Tuesday. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Governor James Bullard said the Fed should quickly tighten monetary policy to ease upward inflation pressure.

At the National Association of Business Economists conference, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank could be more aggressive in raising interest rates if inflation does not slow down. This means raising the interest rate by 0.5% instead of the standard 0.25%. The US stock market reacted negatively to such comments but partially managed to recover by the end of the day. By the close of trading yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.58%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.04%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 0.40%. All three major indices closed the day with losses. According to the analytical houses, FOMC officials are now more concerned about high inflation than the economic slowdown or weakening labor market.

This week will not be full of economic events, so the main focus of investors will be on geopolitics and the situation in Ukraine. This week, the Bank for International Settlements will also host a virtual meeting with speeches by many US officials, including Jerome Powell. There will be a NATO meeting on Wednesday. On Thursday, a summit of EU leaders on security issues will occur. US President Joe Biden plans to attend these events in Europe.

Last week, investors' attention was focused on the US, UK, and Japanese central bank meetings and inflation rates in Europe and Canada. This week will not be full of economic events, so the investors' attention will be focused on the situation in Ukraine. Also, this week there will be a virtual summit organized by the Bank for International Settlements, which will be addressed by many US officials, including Jerome Powell. On Wednesday, the UK will update its inflation data. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise by 0.4-0.5%, although the Bank of England has already raised interest rates three times. On Thursday, data on business activity in the manufacturing sector in many countries and durable goods order data in the US will be released. A summit of EU leaders on security issues will also take place on Thursday. Investors should closely monitor the oil market. Russia's invasion of Ukraine and related sanctions could exacerbate supply shortages unless Western countries agree to increase supplies from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

The US stock indices finished Thursday's trading with growth. The Dow Jones Index (US30) gained 1.23%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.23%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.33% at the close of the stock market. Adam Phillips, managing director of portfolio strategy at EP Wealth Advisors, said the market is still trying to figure out what the latest news from the Fed means for the future. They tell us that the markets still believe in the Fed's ability to land softly on the economy. Stock indices initially priced in a more aggressive interest rate hike, so now that news of the Fed's plans have come out, the markets have taken it positively.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve raised the interest rates by 0.25%. In addition, the Fed warned of further increases. A total of 7 hikes are expected this year and four more next year. Fed policymakers see the risk of further inflationary pressures (the forecast for 2022 increased to 4.3% from 2.6%) and economic slowdowns (the forecast for GDP growth was reduced to 2.8% from 4%). The Fed will decide on a balance sheet reduction at its upcoming meetings and consider a more rapid stimulus reduction.

The US stock indices finished Tuesday's trading with a confident growth. By the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 1.82%, the S&P500 index (US500) added 2.14%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 2.92%. The long-awaited FOMC meeting in the US will take place today, where analysts expect to see an interest rate hike. Investors should also keep a close eye on Jerome Powell's speech at the press conference. There is a 100% chance that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by at least 25 basis points today. Analysts are confident that the rate will rise at every Federal Reserve meeting until the end of the year. But with inflation approaching 8%, many believe that rising rates to 2% by the end of the year will not be enough to dampen consumer price growth, so the Fed needs to start cutting the balance sheet. The US stock market has already included a more aggressive scenario for a rate hike, so now the indices can significantly increase in price even despite the growth of the dollar index.

The US stock indices finished trading on Monday without a single trend. The Dow Jones (US30) was flat at the close, the S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.74%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 2.04%. Tomorrow will be the long-awaited March Federal Reserve meeting, at which the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. Most likely, the rate will be raised by 0.25%, but there is a slight possibility that due to the uncertainty caused by the war in Ukraine, the rate could be increased immediately by 0.5%. The Fed will also provide new macroeconomic forecasts along with the rate decision. Goldman Sachs Group lowered its forecast for the S&P 500 Index to 4,700 points from 4,900 points at the end of 2022 due to the conflict over Ukraine.

On Friday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.69% (-1.89% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.30% (-2.84% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 2.18% (-3.64% for the week). All three major indices closed the week down. Last week the US CPI climbed to 7.9% year on year, the highest level since 1982. In his speech to Congress last week, Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed would raise interest rates by a quarter-point to combat rising inflation at its March 16 meeting. No more rate hikes of more than 50 bps are expected as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent commodity prices soaring and caused serious uncertainty in financial markets.

Last week, US consumer inflation increased to 7.9% in annual terms, the highest level since 1982. The Fed has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to combat rising inflation. No more rate hikes of more than half a percentage point are expected as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent commodity prices soaring and caused significant uncertainty in financial markets. This week, investors' attention should be focused on the FOMC meeting, inflation data in the Eurozone, Canada, and Japan, as well as monetary policy reports from the central banks of England, Australia, and Japan. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again by a quarter-point. Investors will also focus on reports from the International Energy Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The war and sanctions against Russia have pushed oil prices to a 14-year high, and natural gas prices are close to record highs.

The US stock indices closed lower yesterday amid negative consumer price index data. The inflation rate in the US reached 7.9% year on year, the highest level in the last 40 years. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) was down 0.34%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.43%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 0.95%. Analysts are now confident that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 bps at subsequent meetings this year. Yesterday, SaxoBank analysts said that "given the strong increase in energy and transportation costs, mainly related to Ukraine, we forecast that the US inflation rate could reach double digits this year."

US stock indices ended Wednesday's trading with solid growth. Falling prices for oil and other commodities have supported the US stock market. The sharp rise in oil and other commodities has raised fears among investors about further rising inflation and a potential slowdown in economic growth. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) increased by 2%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 2.57%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 3.59%.

On Tuesday, US President Joe Biden signed a decree banning the import of oil, petroleum products, LNG, and coal from Russia. The decree also bans US investment in Russia's energy sector and the financing of foreign companies investing in the sector. This could worsen the US Federal Reserve's inflation problem ahead of its policy decision next week. Russia warned earlier this week that oil prices could rise to $300 a barrel because it could cut off the main pipeline to Germany if the West blocked its oil exports. At the close of the stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.56%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 0.72%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 0.28%.

On Monday, US stock indices closed lower as risks arising from Russia's attack on Ukraine are still weighing heavily on investors. The third round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia did not give a significant result, continuing the war. Now it is difficult to predict when the de-escalation of the conflict will begin. Investors are also concerned about new inflationary risks as the US Federal Reserve may revise its plans again and raise interest rates more aggressively. Yesterday, it also became known that the US is considering options to reduce Russian oil imports and analyze possible actions to minimize the impact on global supplies. Currently, the level of Russian oil and gas imports is about 8%. All these factors negatively impact world indices. As the stock market closed yesterday, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 2.37%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 2.85%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 3.62%.

US stock indices closed lower on Friday as risks associated with the Russian attack on Ukraine continue to put pressure on investors. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.53% (-0.76% for the week), the S&P 500 (US500) lost 0.79% (-0.58% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 1.66% (-1.90% for the week). All three major indices closed the week with losses. Geopolitical concerns are likely to continue to overshadow the outlook for US stocks as soaring post-sanctions commodity prices have increased fears of more inflation, which may prompt the Fed to raise interest rates more aggressively.

Last week, investors' attention was focused on the war in Ukraine. Now it is a major geopolitical and economic tragedy. Western countries have imposed tough sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine. The world's largest companies have ceased cooperation with the Russian market. Russia has lost international support, investors are trying to withdraw their investments from the country, but the Russian government has already introduced laws prohibiting or restricting currency withdrawal. The Moscow Stock Exchange was closed last week, and Russian securities fell by 70-100% on international exchanges. This week, investors will also focus on war and geopolitics. As for economic events, traders and investors should pay attention to the consumer price index (inflation rate) in the US on Thursday, as well as to the ECB interest rates meeting. Analysts expect another jump in inflation in the US, and the ECB is unlikely to change its monetary policy because of the war in Ukraine.

Wall Street closed in the red due to continued uncertainty surrounding the war in Ukraine. Russian terrorists are simply bombing Ukrainian cities and shooting civilians (in Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy, Kyiv, and many smaller towns like Borodyanka). The number of civilian casualties is growing rapidly. Ukraine asks NATO countries to close the sky over Ukraine, but NATO refuses because it will directly interfere with the alliance in the war with Russia. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.29%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) lost 0.53%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.54%.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell officially announced for the first time that the regulator would raise rates at the March 16 meeting. The rate hike will be 25 basis points. When asked how the situation in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia would affect the US economy, he said it was too early to draw conclusions. Markets are now setting a zero chance that the Fed will raise the key rate by 50 bps all at once at the March meeting. A week ago, market participants estimated such a possibility at 41%. Speaking before the US House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services, Powell's comments reassured investors as the market initially expected faster rate hikes. As the stock market closed, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 1.79%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 1.86%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.62%.

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 index fell due to several factors: a collapse in bank stocks, falling Treasury yields, and concerns about the economic outlook after oil prices rose above $100 a barrel as Russia intensified its assault on Ukraine. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.76%, the S&P 500 index (US500) lost 1.55%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) fell by 1.59%.

The markets' focus remains on Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by Western countries against Russia, which has sharply increased uncertainty in the global financial markets. The US stock indices closed Monday with a slight decline. By the close of the stock market Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.49%, S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.24%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) increased by 0.41%.

It will be a very volatile week due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Belarus also became an accomplice to the conflict, having provided its territory for the attack of the Russian army and launched cruise missiles from its territory at Ukrainian cities yesterday. The sanctions imposed against Russia are very serious, and the consequences of such sanctions for ordinary Russian citizens will be serious. If not take into account geopolitics, this week's main events for investors will be the US Nonfarm Payrolls and Interest Rate Decisions from the Central Banks of Canada and Australia. The Bank of Canada will likely raise its interest rate, while the Reserve Bank of Australia will leave it unchanged. Investors should also keep an eye on the OPEC+ meeting. Given the high geopolitical risks, unexpected decisions are possible. Special attention should be paid to the speech of Fed chief Jerome Powell before the US Congress, as well as the speech of ECB chief Christine Lagarde. Given Russia's attack on Ukraine, it is important to understand how the US and Europe Central Banks will adjust monetary policy.

At the end of last week, a war broke out between Russia and Ukraine, with Russia acting as the aggressor. Russia began bombing the military and civilian infrastructure of Ukraine on the morning of February 24. Also, yesterday it was officially confirmed that cruise missiles were launched on the territory of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus. Thus, Belarus becomes an accomplice to military action against Ukraine and may be subject to the same sanctions as Russia.

Yesterday, the US imposed sanctions against Russia. "We're implementing full blocking sanctions on two large Russian financial institutions: VEB and their military bank," President Joe Biden said in a speech. These sanctions should cut off the Russian government from Western funding. The US is also imposing a ban on the purchase of US bonds. "We'll also impose sanctions on Russia's elites and their family members. They share the corrupt gains of the Kremlin policies and should share in the pain as well," Biden said. Biden also noted that if Russia decides to expand its invasion, the US and its allies are ready to impose additional sanctions. The reaction of the financial markets was restrained.

Yesterday, the Russian Federation officially recognized the self-proclaimed republics of the "DPR" and "LPR" and signed an agreement with them on mutual, including military, cooperation. Later that day, Putin ordered the Russian Ministry of Defense to deploy troops to the "LPR" and "DPR." Thus, Russia once again violated international law and the Minsk agreements. As a result, Russia and Ukraine are automatically withdrawing from the Minsk agreements, which could further inflame the situation in the east since there are now no treaty restrictions. Moreover, Russia recognizes the "DPR" and "LPR" within the borders of their actual regions of Ukraine, while the line of demarcation is much smaller. This could lead to a real war. This shows how Russia, the guarantor of Ukraine's security when signing the Budapest Memorandum, has become an aggressor against Ukraine and has now declared this on a new global scale.

Last week was very tense due to the situation in Eastern Europe. Financial markets remain extremely volatile. Any hint of a peaceful resolution pushes indices up, while any hint of escalation causes investors to buy defensive assets again, such as the dollar, Japanese yen, gold, and silver. Meanwhile, markets are completely ignoring the very strong fourth-quarter earnings results in the US and Europe. It is also unclear how the US Fed will tighten monetary policy, slowly or quickly, which adds to investors' caution. According to JPMorgan, the Fed will raise rates by 0.25% nine times in a row, reducing inflation and not affecting economic growth.

Yesterday, the US stock markets traded in the red area as the geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe deteriorated sharply, with the level of information tension remaining extremely high. "Fuel to the fire" was also added yesterday by US President Joe Biden, who said the probability of a Russian invasion of Ukraine remains very high, and it will happen in the next few days. Western countries said that Russia was trying to conduct an operation under a false flag to create a pretext for an attack. For its part, Russia accused Joe Biden of stoking tensions and issued a sharply worded letter saying that Washington was ignoring its security requirements and threatening unspecified "military and technical measures." Adding to the concerns, the State Department reported that Russia had expelled the deputy head of the US diplomatic mission in Moscow. At the close of the day, the Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 2.12%, the S&P 500 (US500) lost 1.78%, and the NASDAQ (US100) tech index fell by 2.6%. But stock indices rebounded slightly in the Asian session after the US secretary of state agreed to a meeting with Russia's foreign minister, raising hopes for diplomacy.

The US stock markets traded without a single trend yesterday. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.16%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.09%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 0.1% at the close of the stock market.

Thanks to the easing of tensions in Eastern Europe, global stock indices increased yesterday. The Dow Jones Index (US30) added 1.22%, the S&P 500 (US500) rose by 1.58%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 2.53%. On Tuesday, the Russian Defense Ministry said that some troops are beginning to return to their bases. The detente of geopolitical tensions has provoked an influx of investor funds into risky assets. Meanwhile, gold and oil prices declined yesterday.

Reports that the US authorities are waiting for a Russian invasion of Ukraine have led to a sharp decline in risk appetite in global markets, a trend that continues to this day. The US stock indices closed Monday with a decline. By the close of the Stock Exchange, Dow Jones Index (US30) decreased by 0.49%, S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.38%, and the technology index NASDAQ (US100) closed at its opening levels. The Fed's monetary policy and the escalating geopolitical situation in Eastern Europe remained the focus of traders' attention.

The US stock indices closed in the red zone on Friday. By the close of the stocks market Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 1.43% (-1.05% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) fell by 1.90% (-1.93% for the week), NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 2.58%, becoming the worst performer of the week (-2.32%) among the US indices. All three major indices closed the week with losses.

On Thursday, US stock indices fell sharply after a Federal Reserve spokesman stoked fears of an aggressive interest rate hike. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard supported a 1% Fed rate hike by July after consumer price inflation jumped to 7.5% in annual terms, the fastest pace since 1982. The probability of a 50 basis point interest rate hike from the Fed next month increased to 89.9% from 24% the day before. High volatility in the stock market is likely to continue until the Fed meeting in March.

On Wednesday, the US stock indices closed in the green zone thanks to positive reports from many companies. By the close of the stock market, Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.86%, S&P500 (US500) added 1.45%, and NASDAQ (US100) technology index jumped by 2.08%. The US inflation report for January will be released today. Analysts expect consumer prices to rise 0.4% month-over-month to 7.3% in annual terms. If the data comes out worse than expected, the dollar index could jump, and stock indices could fall amid investor fears that the Federal Reserve will be more aggressive in its monetary policy.

The US stock indices closed on the plus side on Tuesday. By the close of the stock market Dow Jones (US30) gained 1.06%, S&P500 (US500) added 0.84%, technology index NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 1.28%. The US 10-year bond yields jumped to 1.97% yesterday, the highest level since August 2019, amid continued bets that the Federal Reserve will be aggressive on monetary policy to curb inflation. Banking stocks are growing amid rising yields.

US stock indices mainly decreased on Monday. At the close of the stock exchange, the Dow Jones (US30) remained at the same level, the S&P500 (US500) fell by 0.37%, and the NASDAQ (US100) tech index lost 0.58%. Tom Lee, the founder of the research company Fundstrat, believes that the US stock market will experience a rapid rally in February amid market sensitivity after the collapse. The expert predicts that by the end of the first half of 2022, the S&P500 (US500) may jump above 4850 points, which is 8% above current levels.

US stock indices traded on Friday without a single trend. At the close of the stock exchange on Friday, Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 0.06% (+1.15% for the week), S&P500 (US500) increased by 0.52% (+1.55% for the week), NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) added 1.58%, becoming the highest gainer of the week (+2.07%) among the US indices. All three major indices closed the week in positive territory. Investors evaluated the latest labor market data and corporate reports. Labor market data showed an increase of 467,000 US nonfarm payrolls last month (125,000 – 150,000 forecast). An unexpectedly sharp increase in jobs occurred despite the spread of the new Omicron strain. But the unemployment rate increased from 3.9% to 4.0%. Such data put pressure on the market as it increased investors' fears that the Fed might become more aggressive.

The US stock indices ended Thursday's trading with a decline. The Dow Jones (US30) decreased by 1.45%, the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 2.44%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 3.74% at the close of the stock market. The disappointing results and an unclear outlook for Meta Platforms (Facebook) dampened market sentiment and left investors worried about other tech companies. But after the market closed, futures on indices jumped sharply on Amazon's report. The company increased its net income for 2021 by 57%. Amazon shares jumped 14.3% and returned some optimism to investors.

The US stock indices ended Wednesday's trading with growth, closing near session peaks. By the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 0.63%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.94%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) increased by 0.5%. However, futures on indices fell sharply after the stock market closed, as stocks of companies such as Meta Platforms (Facebook), Spotify, Twitter, and Snapchat fell so that the major stock indices will open with a big gap down today. Investor sentiment has been mixed so far. On the one hand, they fear the upcoming tightening of the monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve System. On the other hand, they are confident in the recovery of the American economy amid strong reports of the majority of companies.

The US stock indices finished Tuesday's trading with growth. By the close of the stock market Dow Jones (US30) gained 0.78%, S&P 500 (US500) added 0.69%, and NASDAQ (US100) jumped by 0.75%.

The US stock indices continued their Friday growth on Monday. By the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 1.17%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 1.89%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 3.41%. Yesterday's speech by Fed officials appeared to reduce the probability of a 50 basis point rate hike in March, with three rate hikes scheduled for 2022, not 4-5 as analysts predict. On Monday, the US Treasury chief economist also said that inflationary pressures should ease this year due to lower demand for goods, easing supply chain problems, and the easing of the coronavirus pandemic. Investors' attention will now focus on the US labor market report for January, which will be released on Friday, and on reports from major companies, especially Alphabet, Meta Platforms (Facebook), Amazon, Exxon Mobil, and General Motors.

Last week, investors' attention was focused on the Fed meeting. The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate at 0.25%. It also became known that the end of the QE program will take place in March, and the balance sheet reduction will begin only after the start of the rate hike. This week the main investors' attention will be focused on the data on the US non-farm payrolls, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the labor market will add 155,000 jobs and show a slowdown from 199,000 in December on the back of the Omicron strain. Traders should pay special attention to the interest rate decision from the Bank of England, the ECB, and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analysts expect a 0.25% interest rate hike from the Bank of England to curb inflation. Market participants do not expect any changes to the monetary policy of the ECB and the RBA this week. Traders should also pay special attention to inflation data in Europe. Accelerating inflation in the region may provoke the ECB to act more decisively to tighten monetary policy, but analysts forecast lower inflation in the region. Investors should also keep a close eye on the monthly OPEC+ meeting, which has a big impact on oil pricing. Traders should also not forget about the US reporting season. Alphabet, Amazon, Meta Platforms (Facebook), General Motors, Ford, Exxon Mobil, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Merck, and others will report this week.

The US statistical data was positive yesterday. The number of new jobless claims in the USA was 260,000, while analysts expected 265,000. The US GDP grew by 6.9% in the fourth quarter, while the growth b 5.5% was expected. The dollar index significantly strengthened yesterday, which led to the decrease of other currencies against the dollar. At the same time, stock indices fell despite good reports from tech companies. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.02%, the S&P 500 index (US500) fell by 0.54%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 1.4% at the close of the stock market.

Yesterday, investors were focused on the Fed's interest rate decision and the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. The Federal Reserve kept the interest rate at 0.25%. The end of the QE program will occur in March, and the balance sheet reduction will not begin until after the start of the rate hike. If risks arise that prevent it from achieving its goals, the Fed is prepared to change its monetary policy stance as necessary. The Fed's decision coincided with the forecasts of economists and market participants.

Yesterday, the US stock indices rebounded from session lows ahead of the Fed meeting but closed the trading day with losses. The Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 0.19%, the S&P500 index (US500) decreased by 1.22%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 2.28% at the close of the stock market.

Yesterday, major US stock indices showed a sharp decline throughout the trading day, but at the end of the trading session recovered their positions sharply and closed in the green territory. By the close of the trading session, the Dow Jones index (US30) gained 0.29%, the S&P 500 index (US500) added 0.28%, and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) jumped by 0.63%. However, experts at Deutsche Bank believe that after a short-term growth, the US stock market will see a deeper sell-off.

Major US stock indices fell sharply on Friday. The S&P 500 (US500) and Nasdaq (US100) indices have shown their biggest weekly percentage declines since the pandemic began. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones index (US30) decreased by 1.30% (-4.81% for the week), the S&P500 (US500) fell by 1.89% (-5.18% for the week), and the NASDAQ technology index (US100) lost 2.72%, becoming the biggest weekly decline (-6.38%) among American indices.

On Thursday, US stock indices fell sharply by the end of the day due to the drop in consumer stocks and new weakness in the technology sector. Energy stocks were also pressured by the decline in oil prices on the back of an unexpected increase in weekly US crude oil reserves. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) fell by 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 1.3%. The market is now pricing in a scenario with the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates, so the US stock market is slowly entering a full correction wave.

The US stock market ended Wednesday's trading in the red zone. The growth of government bond yields reflects the market's growing concern that central banks would reduce the quantitative easing program and raise interest rates more aggressively than originally anticipated. This is having a negative effect on the stock market, and especially on the technology companies. As the stock market closed, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.97%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) lost 0.96%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) fell by 1.15%. Stock markets have been falling since Fed officials said in mid-December that plans to reduce bond purchases and other stimulus measures that boost stock prices would be accelerated by a jump in US inflation. At the same time, analysts expect government bond yields to continue rising and exceed 2% in the first quarter of 2022.

The rise in the dollar index, Japanese yen, and government bond yields indicates that traders are beginning to fear another hawkish surprise from the Federal Reserve, whose meeting is expected next week. According to Deutsche Bank, the US Federal Reserve may raise rates more aggressively in March, by 50 basis points at once, to get ahead of inflation. As a result, the stock market saw another sell-off yesterday. At the close of the stock market, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.8%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 1.5%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 2.5%.

Yesterday, the US stock market was closed because of the holiday; only futures for indices, currency, and raw materials were traded.

The US stock indices were trading flat on Friday. By the end of the week, Dow Jones (US30) decreased 0.56% (-0.73% for the week), S&P 500 (US500) gained 0.08% (+0.16% for the week), and tech index NASDAQ (US100) added 0.59%, becoming the best performer of the week (+0.96%) among the US indices. The decline in Dow Jones was led by declines in shares of major banks, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup after earnings results raised worries about declining trading profits and rising lending.

On Thursday, major US indices closed lower amid renewed selling of technology stocks. At the same time, investors believe that the end of quantitative easing, four rate hikes, and the beginning of the Fed's balance sheet reduction for nine months - is so aggressive that it will limit the possibilities for further growth of stock indices. By the close of the session, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 2.5%.

In December, the US consumer price index increased by 0.5%, slightly above analysts' forecast of 0.4%. Annual consumer price growth in December was 7%, in line with expectations and the highest inflation rate since 1982.

In his speech to the US Senate, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell calmed down a little concerned about monetary policy tightening. Mr. Powell confirmed that the Fed plans to begin policy normalization, including ending bond purchases, raising rates, and allowing bonds on the balance sheet to mature later this year.

The US stock market closed in mixed territory yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) lost 0.5%, and the Nasdaq (US100) increased by 0.05%. But all three indices demonstrated a decline throughout the trading day and only recovered their intraday losses by the end of the day.

Last week, investors' attention was focused on US nonfarm payrolls data and FOMC meeting minutes. The FOMC report showed that an earlier rate hike may be warranted as the labor market remains tight and inflation remains high. In December, the nonfarm payrolls report showed that US private sector jobs increased by 199,000, while analysts had expected an increase of 450,000. This is weak data that confirms the fact that the labor market is slowing. But even though in December, the number of jobs was below expectations, the unemployment rate fell to a 22-month low, and wages rose significantly. The US unemployment rate fell to 3.9% from 4.2%.

The US stock market ended Thursday's trading with a decline amid negative dynamics from the utilities and healthcare sectors. By the close of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) decreased by 0.47%, the S&P 500 (US500) fell by 0.10%, and the NASDAQ Composite (US100) lost 0.13%.

On Wednesday, the US stocks fell sharply after the US Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed that the central bank might raise interest rates earlier than expected. Meanwhile, some Fed officials also warned that the Fed might have to reduce the number of assets on its balance sheet soon after a rate hike. The S&P 500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) indices fell sharply after the FOMC minutes were released. The Dow Jones index, which reached a record high at the beginning of the day, also closed lower. By the end of the trading session, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 1.94%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) fell by 1.07%, and the Nasdaq Composite Technology Index (US100) lost 3.36%.

The US stock indices traded without a single trend yesterday. By the end of the trading day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (US30) increased by 0.59%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) decreased by 0.06%, and the Nasdaq Technology Index (US100) lost 1.33%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones (US30) and S&P 500 (US500) indices made new all-time highs during the trading session but showed declines after the news. The US manufacturing PMI data for December was weak (58.7 vs. 61.1 last month). Typically, an index above 50 reflects growth in the manufacturing sector and vice versa, so at the moment, analysts believe that the US manufacturing sector is stable, despite the decline in numbers.

The US stock indices closed in the green zone yesterday, while the dollar index also increased sharply. It is quite rare when both the major stock indices and the dollar are rising simultaneously. At the close of the stock market, the Dow Jones Index (US30) increased by 0.68%, the S&P 500 Index (US500) added 0.65%, and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) jumped by 1.2%. But analysts do not expect this year to be as successful for the US stock market as the previous one.

The US stock market closed the last trading day of the year with a decrease. Dow Jones index (US30) fell by 0.16% (+1.07% for the week, +4.90% for the month, +20.23% for the year), S&P 500 (US500) decreased by 0.26% (+0.68% for the week, +4.13% for the month, +28.79% for the year) and the NASDAQ Technology Index (US100) lost 0.61% (-0.33% for the week, +1.71% for the month, +23.20% for the year). For the first time since 2001, all 11 sectors of the S&P 500 index showed double-digit gains, with the S&P 500 index (US500) outperforming the NASDAQ index (US100) by year-end for the first time since 2016.