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The Forecast – 2024.06.20
Yesterday was a bank holiday in the US, so volatility remained low, given the lack of important economic events in the Eurozone. Investors' attention is now directed towards the election campaign in France. Franco-German spreads indicate a notable risk premium applied to riskier, highly leveraged countries such as Italy and France, while investors invest in safer German bonds. A sell-off in peripheral country bonds is generally followed by a weaker euro.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.19
The euro initially declined on Tuesday on a weaker-than-expected German ZEW Economic Growth Survey. The German ZEW's Economic Growth Expectations Index for June rose 0.4 to a 2-year high of 47.5, which was weaker than expectations of 50.0. But by the end of the day, the euro recovered slightly on hawkish comments from ECB Vice President Guindos, who said that the ECB's economic estimates for September would be the next occasion for the ECB to discuss interest rate cuts. Swaps discount the odds of an ECB rate cut by 25 bps at 6% for the 18 July meeting and 61% for the 12 September meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.18
The euro stabilized around $1.07, remaining at 7-week lows after falling 0.8% last week as market participants actively monitored France's political situation. The ECB recently cut rates for the first time in five years but is taking a cautious stance on additional cuts as recent data points to persistent inflationary pressures. Eurozone wages rose at an annualized rate of 5.3% in the first quarter, the highest rate since the fourth quarter of 2022. The Eurozone will release its CPI report today. No changes are expected, but any surprise in the form of rising consumer prices could boost the euro to the upside.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.17
The euro came under pressure yesterday after Thursday's economic news showed an unexpected decline in the Eurozone's April industrial production. In addition, political uncertainty in France continues to weigh on the euro after French President Macron called for early parliamentary elections on Sunday. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at 12% at the 30–31 July FOMC meeting and 65% at the next meeting on 17–18 September. Swaps also estimate the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at 13% for the 18 July meeting and 62% for the 12 September meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.14
The euro came under pressure yesterday after Thursday's economic news showed an unexpected decline in the Eurozone's April industrial production. In addition, political uncertainty in France continues to weigh on the euro after French President Macron called for early parliamentary elections on Sunday. Markets rate the odds of a 25bp rate cut at 12% at the 30–31 July FOMC meeting and 65% at the next meeting on 17–18 September. Swaps also estimate the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at 13% for the 18 July meeting and 62% for the 12 September meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.13
The euro soared above $1.08, benefiting from the dollar's general weakness after US inflation data came below prognoses. May US CPI unexpectedly declined to 3.3% y/y from 3.4% y/y in April versus expectations of no change at 3.4% y/y. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, fell to a 3-year low of 3.4% y/y, weaker than the expectations of 3.5% y/y. Meanwhile, the Fed left rates unchanged as expected and signaled only one rate cut this year and four cuts next year, less than market expectations for 2024.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.12
Today, the US Central Bank will hold its next monetary policy meeting. Economists expect the FOMC to keep the interest rate at 5.5%. Market watchers will focus on how many rate cuts will be made before the end of 2024. The updated dot plot will likely point to two 25 basis point rate cuts this year, up from three in March. This may strengthen the dollar, harming risk assets (euro, pound), metals, and indices.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.11
The Dollar Index rose on Monday by 0.24%, reaching the maximum for 3 weeks. That day, the dollar rose thanks to support from a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report for May released last Friday, which limited expectations for a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. Markets are pricing in a 25bp chance of a rate cut of 1% at the June 11–12 FOMC meeting, 8% at the next meeting on July 30–31, and 50% at the next September 17–18 meeting. As for the European Central Bank, swaps estimate the odds of a 25bp ECB rate cut at 6% for the July 18 meeting and 48% for the September 12 meeting. This situation will favor the eurodollar to trade in a balanced structure with no definite unidirectional moves (except for intraday time frames).
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The Forecast – 2024.06.10
Another strong employment report cast doubt on the prospect of interest rate cuts this year. The number of jobs rose by 272,000 in May, beating expectations, and the rise in average hourly earnings was stronger than expected. The US Fed will likely revise its rate cut estimates from 3 rate cuts this year and 3 next year to probably 2 cuts this year and 4 next year.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.07
The euro rose slightly to $1.09 and remains near 2-month highs after the ECB cut key interest rates by 25 bps as expected but signaled a cautious approach to further rate cuts. Policymakers noted that price pressures remain strong and inflation is likely to stay above target over the next year, with interest rates remaining fairly restrictive for as long as necessary to ensure inflation returns to the 2% level.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.06
The dollar surged to a high on Wednesday after the May ISM Services Business Activity Index rose more than expected, a hawkish factor for the Fed's policy. Meanwhile, the euro is declining amid expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates on Thursday. Almost 100% probability that the ECB will cut the rate by 0.25 percent. With a 25 basis point rate cut already virtually promised by policymakers, market watchers will focus on what ECB President Christine Lagarde says. However, in a news release, the euro may temporarily rise because the latest wage data may boost inflation going forward, and Lagarde will mention this.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.05
On Tuesday, the euro retreated from the 2-month high and suffered moderate losses. Weaker-than-expected German labor market news weighed on the euro after Germany's unemployment rate rose more than expected in May. The ECB is also expected to cut rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, reacting to signs of weakening inflation. However, the recent rise in May inflation has raised uncertainty about the number of rate cuts expected this year. Meanwhile, in the US, economic data suggests that the economy is increasingly affected by rising interest rates, confirming the need for multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.04
The euro rose to $1.09, reaching its highest level in the last 10 weeks, after an unexpected decline in the US manufacturing index, which put pressure on the dollar against other major currencies. The US ISM manufacturing index for May unexpectedly fell by 0.5 to 48.7, weaker than expectations of a rise to 49.5. Swaps discount the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at Thursday's ECB meeting at 96%. If the ECB cuts rates by 25 bps on Thursday as expected, markets expect a 0% chance of another rate cut at the next meeting on July 18 and a 61% chance of a 25 bps rate cut at the September 12 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.06.03
The euro rose and reached $1.088, the highest level in the last two weeks, amid increasing divergence between the monetary policy rates of the European Central Bank and the US Federal Reserve. On the one hand, better-than-expected inflation figures in the Eurozone may force the ECB to reduce the number of rate cuts this year. Core and core inflation rose to 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively, in May, which exceeded expectations. On the other hand, core PCE prices, the Fed's preferred measure of underlying inflation, rose by 0.2%, the slowest pace this year, raising hopes that inflation may be nearing target.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.31
Weak US economic reports on Thursday led to lower T bond yields and put pressure on the dollar. The US first quarter GDP was revised downward to 1.3% (q/q annualized) from 1.6%, which aligned with expectations. The core PCE Price Index for the first quarter was unexpectedly revised downward to 3.6% (QoQ annualized), weaker than expected, with no change at 3.7%. A weaker dollar on Thursday provided support for the euro along with hawkish European economic reports.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.30
The EUR/USD pair retreated from the weekly maximum on Tuesday and ended the trading with a slight decline. A negative factor for the euro was the ECB report published on Tuesday, which showed a decline in April inflation expectations, a dovish factor for the ECB policy. ECB expectations for April 1-year CPI fell to 2.9% from 3.0% in March, which matched expectations and was the lowest in 2 years. In addition, the expected April 3-year CPI declined to 2.4% from 2.5% in March, which was slower than expected, with no change at 2.5%.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.29
The EUR/USD pair retreated from the weekly maximum on Tuesday and ended the trading with a slight decline. A negative factor for the euro was the ECB report published on Tuesday, which showed a decline in April inflation expectations, a dovish factor for the ECB policy. ECB expectations for April 1-year CPI fell to 2.9% from 3.0% in March, which matched expectations and was the lowest in 2 years. In addition, the expected April 3-year CPI declined to 2.4% from 2.5% in March, which was slower than expected, with no change at 2.5%.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.28
The euro rose to $1.085 in the last week of May, nearing two-month highs, as traders adjusted their bets for lower interest rates. Investors now estimate an 88% probability that the ECB will cut rates during its upcoming monetary policy meeting next week. However, doubts remain about further rate cuts beyond June, with traders now expecting only one cut. The ECB's chief economist told the FT that the Central Bank is ready to cut interest rates in June, but policy should remain restrictive this year as wage growth will not normalize until 2026.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.27
The Euro climbed above USD 1.0830, rebounding from the recent weekly low, as the latest data confirmed the possibility that the ECB will raise rates less frequently this year. Contractual wages rose 4.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, approaching the record levels seen in Q3 2023, prompting the ECB's inflation warning. In addition, PMI data showed that private sector activity rose by the most in April of the year amid accelerating growth in new orders and employment. As a result, investors now estimate the probability of an ECB rate cut this year at only 60 bps.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.24
The euro initially increased on Thursday because of stronger-than-expected first-quarter Eurozone payroll reports and May S&P Manufacturing PMI. However, strong economic reports from the US bolstered the prospects that the Federal Reserve would further delay interest rate cuts, sending the Dollar Index to a one-week high and putting pressure on the euro.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.23
On Thursday, the Dollar Index held near 104.9 after rising to weekly highs in the previous session, helped by the hawkish tone of the minutes of the latest Federal Reserve meeting. The minutes showed that meeting participants were concerned about volatile inflation, which undermined sentiment for an interest rate cut. Some Fed representations also indicated a willingness to further tighten policy if inflation accelerates. The probability of a rate cut in September and November has fallen slightly to 61% and 72%, respectively.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.22
The latest economic news on the Eurozone was mixed. Eurozone first quarter labor costs accelerated, which is hawkish for ECB policy, while the German Producer Price Index for April declined, which is dovish for ECB policy. The divergence of central banks' views currently limits the euro's upside potential: the ECB is expected to cut interest rates next month, while the Fed is postponing rate cuts.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.21
The ECB is almost 100% likely to reduce borrowing costs in June, but even after that, there is uncertainty, and many policymakers favor a cautious approach. Eurozone inflation currently stands at 2.4%, close to the ECB's 2% target and well below the 7% a year ago. In addition, fresh Eurozone GDP estimates confirmed the economy's exit from recession in the first quarter, and the European Commission's new prognoses continue to point to a soft landing scenario.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.20
The ECB prefers to follow Fed policy, but the contrasting economic conditions and inflation profiles mean that the ECB will likely have to go it alone this time. Many ECB officials have repeatedly mentioned June as a suitable month for an interest rate cut, and it is now virtually guaranteed. However, the representatives are somewhat hawkish, cautioning against expecting a rate cut after June to avoid weakening financial conditions and a new round of rising inflation.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.17
The euro retreated from the five-week high on Thursday and suffered minor losses amid dovish comments of the ECB Governing Council representatives Centeno and de Kos. ECB Governing Council representative de Cos said the "central scenario" is for the ECB to cut the interest rate at its next meeting on June 6. His counterpart Centeno said he believes the ECB will cut interest rates for "some time." In addition, the dollar's rise on Thursday caused the liquidation of long euro positions.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.16
The euro climbed above $1.085, reaching its highest level in five weeks, amid growing expectations of monetary policy convergence between the US and Europe. The European Central Bank is expected to cut rates at its upcoming June 6 meeting, with market prognosis suggesting a possible rate cut of around 70 basis points over the year. Similarly, speculation is growing that the US will cut rates this year after core inflation slowed in April for the first time in six months. Meanwhile, the latest Eurozone GDP data confirmed an exit from recession in the first quarter, and the European Commission's latest predictions suggest a smooth economic trajectory.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.15
The euro found support on Tuesday after the German ZEW survey's Economic Growth Expectations Index for May rose more than expected to a 2-year high. The ZEW for May rose by 4.2 to a 2-year high of 47.1, beating expectations of 46.4. The euro was also supported by hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council member Wunsch, who said the ECB should not rush to cut interest rates further after a likely first cut in June.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.14
The euro strengthened above $1.078, approaching a five-week high. This week, investors will watch US inflation data and first-quarter GDP and employment figures in the Eurozone, which could influence future monetary policy. Bloomberg raised its 2024 Eurozone GDP projection to 0.7% from 0.5% last month. The European Central Bank is expected to start cutting interest rates in June. Swaps discount the odds of an ECB rate cut by 25 bps to 95% at its next meeting on June 6. Markets expect the ECB to cut rates by 70 basis points this year and the Fed by 45 basis points. Such a differential of expectations is not in favor of the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.13
The US dollar strengthened thanks to the report on declining US consumer sentiment to a six-month low. The rise was driven by concerns over rising inflation expectations and the labor market, while Federal Reserve policymakers continued to advocate for higher interest rates amid persistent inflationary pressures. The European Central Bank is expected to start cutting interest rates in Europe in June, while the Federal Reserve will likely wait until September or later. Markets expect the ECB to cut rates by 70 basis points this year and the Fed by 45 basis points. Such a differential of expectations is not in favor of the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.10
The European Central Bank is expected to start cutting rates at its upcoming meeting on June 6, and market predictions point to a potential 70 basis points rate cut for the year. In contrast, the US Federal Reserve is expected to make changes in September, and even then, a rate cut is uncertain. The probability of a rate cut in September was 69% after initial jobless claims unexpectedly soared to an 8-month high.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.09
The euro ended Wednesday with a slight decline, pressured by the strengthening of the dollar. In addition, expectations that the ECB will start cutting interest rates next month are a bearish factor for the euro. ECB Governing Council spokesman Wunsch said yesterday that since there is "no sign of a weakening" of inflation expectations in the Eurozone over the longer term, "the costs of keeping policy tight for too long seem to outweigh the costs of premature easing." Swaps estimate the probability of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on June 6 at 94%.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.08
This year, optimism about the Fed's easing plans increased after softer-than-expected US labor market data. At the same time, the ECB is expected to start lowering borrowing costs in June. ECB chief economist Philip Lane said the latest data gives him confidence that inflation is returning to the 2% target. Most ECB officials seem supportive of easing next month, but President Lagarde did not hint at further cuts.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.07
The euro posted modest gains on Monday, just below the 3-week high reached last Friday. Some positive economic news supported the euro after the May Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index rose more than expected to a 2-year high, and the Eurozone PMI for April was revised upward to an 11-month high. Limiting EUR/USD growth was a dovish comment from ECB Chief Economist Lane and ECB Governing Council representative Simkus, who said they expect the ECB to start cutting interest rates in June.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.06
The euro rose to $1.08, hitting its highest level since April 9, as traders revised their expectations for an interest rate cut after releasing a weaker-than-expected US jobs report. The data showed that the US created fewer jobs than forecast last month, just 175,000, prompting investors to accelerate forecasts for the Federal Reserve's first rate cut from November to September. In addition, annual wage growth fell to 3.9% and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 3.9%. Meanwhile, in Europe, the stable inflation rate and moderate Eurozone GDP growth released earlier further strengthened the position in favor of a possible ECB interest rate cut in June.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.03
The monthly Non-farm payrolls labor market report will be released in the US today. In April, the US economy is expected to add 243,000 new jobs after 303,000 in March. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.8%, and average hourly earnings are expected to remain at 4.1% year-over-year. The probability of a rate cut from the US Fed in June is minimized. Therefore, if the current labor market report shows further signs of cooling, it will dramatically increase the likelihood that the US Fed may cut rates in the summer. Such a reassessment of expectations will hurt the US dollar, allowing risk assets to gain an advantage.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.02
As expected, the FOMC left the rate unchanged for the 6th consecutive meeting. At the press conference, US Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that inflation has remained stubbornly high recently. He added that he had no plans to cut interest rates until he had "greater confidence" that price growth would steadily slow down to the 2% target. Despite the hawkish tone of the statement, the dollar index fell sharply on the back of falling government bonds, giving risk assets room to grow.
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The Forecast – 2024.05.01
Eurozone inflation remained unchanged at 2.4%y/y in April, meeting expectations, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, fell to 2.7% from 2.9% y/y. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy grew 0.3% in Q1, beating market expectations of 0.1%. This is the strongest growth since Q3 2022, signaling a recovery from a subdued performance since Q4 2022. The US Employment Cost Index for the first quarter rose more than expected, a sign of wage pressure and hawkishness for Fed policy.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.30
Today, the Eurozone will release April inflation data. Consumer prices are expected to be unchanged from last month. In Germany, Europe's largest economy, the National Consumer Price Index was unchanged at 2.2% in April, slightly below forecasts of 2.3%. In addition, Spain's inflation rose to 3.3%, driven by higher food and gas prices. Meanwhile, core inflation in both countries slowed to new multi-year lows due to a slowdown in services inflation. The ECB intended to reduce borrowing costs in June amid gradually easing price pressures and signs of weakening economic activity.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.29
The US dollar strengthened on Friday as stronger-than-expected US economic reports on March personal spending and PCE deflator for March proved to be hawkish for Fed policy and may further delay Fed rate cuts. The US core PCE deflator for March, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, came in at 2.8% y/y, unchanged from February and above expectations of 2.7% y/y. The 5–10-year inflation expectation for April was unchanged at 3.0%. The divergence in Fed and ECB policies is weighing on the euro as the US Fed postponed its first rate cut to a later date, while the ECB is set to cut rates at its June meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.26
Fears of stagflation pressured the dollar on Thursday after the revised US GDP for the first quarter showed slower-than-expected economic growth and persistent price pressures. In turn, the euro found support after Germany's May GfK Consumer Confidence Index rose more than expected to a 2-year high. The March PCE Price Index inflation report will be released in the US today. The annualized PCE Index is expected to rise from 2.5% to 2.6%. A monthly increase of 0.3% is expected. If the PCE data comes out in line with forecasts, it will only reinforce investors' belief that the US Fed will postpone rate cuts to a later date. This is an optimistic scenario for the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.25
On Wednesday, the euro strengthened after the IFO German Business Climate Index rose more than expected to an 11-month high for April. Also bullish for the euro were hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Nagel, who said an ECB rate cut in June does not necessarily mark the start of a series of rate cuts. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on June 6 at 84%, while the odds of a June rate cut from the US Fed are 19%. And this differential of expectations will put pressure on the euro in the medium term.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.24
The latest survey showed that business activity in the Eurozone grew by the most in almost a year in April, with Germany returning to growth after nine months of contraction. This allowed the euro to take a temporary lead over the dollar. On the monetary policy front, statements from ECB policymakers hinted at a willingness to start reducing borrowing costs as early as June, with some officials suggesting the possibility of three rate cuts before the end of 2024.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.23
According to analysts, the policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed will harm the euro in the medium term: the ECB is expected to start cutting interest rates at the June meeting (86% probability), while the Fed is expected to postpone rate cuts. Moreover, economists expect 3 rate cuts from the European Bank and only 2 rate cuts from the US Fed. Investors are now awaiting PMI data from major European countries and a key US inflation indicator to get further signals on the monetary policy trajectory of major central banks.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.22
ECB policymakers' statements hint at a willingness to start reducing borrowing costs as early as June, with some officials suggesting the possibility of three rate cuts before the end of 2024. With the June meeting seen as a done deal, talk has already turned to a second-rate cut, with some discussing a July meeting. This has put pressure on the single currency in recent weeks, and with the Fed now believing that rates will be cut much later this year, EUR/USD will find it difficult to move upwards.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.19
On Thursday, the euro initially moved up after the Bundesbank raised its estimate of the German economy in the first quarter. However, in the afternoon, the euro was pressured by dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representatives Holzmann and Rehn, who said the ECB would start cutting interest rates in June. Additional pressure on the euro was exerted by the growth of the dollar on Friday morning when it became known about Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.18
The latest Eurozone inflation data showed no change. The overall inflation rate remained at 2.4% y/y, while core inflation remained at 2.9% y/y. However, EUR/USD quotes rose on Wednesday due to hawkish comments from the European Central Bank. ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann said he was not fully convinced that the ECB should start cutting interest rates in June, citing the results of the Eurozone wage debate and rising tensions in the Middle East that pose risks to inflation. This contrasts with statements from other peers who favor a rate cut in June. Swaps currently estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on June 6 at 86%.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.17
On Tuesday, the dollar index reached a 5-month high on the back of hawkish comments from the Fed. Fed Chair Powell, San Francisco Fed President Daly, and Fed Vice Chair Jefferson said that if inflation remains elevated, the Fed will hold interest rates longer. The dollar also received support from the news that US manufacturing output rose more than expected in March. Inflation data will be released today in the Eurozone. Consumer prices are expected to continue to decline, which may put additional pressure on the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.16
On Monday, the euro initially increased after the Eurozone industrial production showed a gain in February. However, in the US session, the euro gave up its early gains and moved lower after several ECB officials expressed support for an ECB interest rate cut in June, which is dovish for ECB policy. In addition, a stronger US retail sales report helped to strengthen the dollar yesterday and put additional pressure on the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.15
Friday's headlines about a possible Iranian attack on Israel quickly brought geopolitical issues to the forefront and triggered a bout of risk aversion before the weekend. Market participants sought to minimize risk as much as possible, fearing a potential gap-up risk at Monday's market open if an attack were to occur. This put pressure on all risk assets against the US dollar. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East will keep the euro under pressure in the short term. Concerns over possible Israeli retaliation following the Iranian attack on Saturday could escalate tensions in the region, causing anxiety in the markets and putting pressure on high beta currencies.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.12
On Thursday, the euro came under pressure after the ECB kept the interest rate unchanged but signaled that it will soon start cutting interest rates if inflation continues to fall. The accompanying statement indicated that if the Governing Council's updated assessment of the inflation outlook further strengthens confidence that inflation is steadily converging towards the 2% target, reducing the current level of monetary policy tightening would be appropriate. ECB President Lagarde has said that risks to growth prospects are tilted to the downside, and inflation will fall to the ECB's target level. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on June 6 at 88% and at the next meeting on July 18 at 100%.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.11
The US dollar rose sharply on Wednesday after the US inflation report for March was stronger than expected, which raised T bond yields and reduced the probability of a Fed rate cut. Fed swap markets are now pricing in a 50 bps rate cut for 2024, down from the 75 bps rate cut that was priced last week. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 3% at the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and just 19% at the next meeting on June 12. The dollar's rise on Wednesday weakened the euro. Investor caution is also weighing on the euro ahead of the ECB meeting today, where the ECB is expected to leave the interest rate unchanged at 4.5%. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 5% at the next meeting on April 11 and 82% at the next meeting on June 6.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.10
The euro is holding near $1.08 as investors remain cautious ahead of key US inflation data today and ahead of Thursday's European Central Bank policy meeting. Economists expect US core inflation, which excludes food and fuel costs, to slow to 3.7% year-on-year from 3.8% in the previous month. However, overall inflation may rise to 3.2% y/y from 3.4% y/y. If the data comes out in line with forecasts, it would mean a mixed report for the US Fed. ECB officials are also expected to keep interest rates at a record high for the sixth consecutive meeting on Thursday, with all eyes turning to the wording of the statement and ECB President Lagarde's press conference for further clues on the timing of the first-rate cut this year.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.09
The dollar gave up early gains on Monday and declined on the back of rising equities, which limited liquidity demand. The euro rose further on Monday thanks to stronger-than-expected reports on Eurozone confidence and German industrial production. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% at the next meeting on April 11 and 91% at the next meeting on June 6. Meanwhile, markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 5% for the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 54% for the next meeting on June 12.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.08
The dollar was supported on Friday after the US Non-Farm Payrolls data rose more than expected, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. US Non-Farm Payrolls for March rose by 303,000, exceeding expectations of 214,000 and being the largest increase in 10 months. In addition, Fed representatives Logan and Bowman's comments were bullish for the dollar, as they said that now is not the time to start cutting interest rates.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.05
The US dollar fell to lows on Thursday after weekly US jobless claims rose more than expected to a 2-month high, dovish for Fed policy. But by the end of the trading session, the dollar recovered from Thursday's worst levels after a sell-off in stock indices, which increased the demand for liquidity for the dollar. This hurt the euro. A negative factor for the euro was the Eurozone producer price index report published on Thursday, which showed that producer prices fell faster than in January, a dovish factor for ECB policy.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.04
The US dollar retreated on Wednesday after an unexpected decline in the US services sector business activity index for March, a dovish factor for the Fed's policy. As a result, EUR/USD jumped 0.64% yesterday. In addition, a bullish factor for the euro was the labor market report, according to which the unemployment rate in the Eurozone in February did not change and remained at a record low level. At the American session, the euro growth accelerated due to Fed Chairman Powell's "dovish" comments. At the same time, the euro was practically unaffected by the weakening price pressure. The March Eurozone CPI declined to 2.4% y/y from 2.6% y/y in February, better than expectations of 2.5% y/y. The March core CPI declined to 2.9% y/y from 3.1% y/y in February, better than expectations of 3.0% y/y and the lowest reading in 2 years.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.03
The euro traded below $1.08 yesterday, hitting its lowest level since February 14, as investors expect the European Central Bank to ease policy more than the Federal Reserve this year. After German data pointed to a significant slowdown in inflationary pressures in Europe's largest economy, money markets slightly raised their expectations for future ECB rate cuts. German inflation fell to 2.2% in March, the lowest since mid-2021, while the core rate fell to a near two-year low of 3.3%. In addition, core inflation in France hit a more than two-year low, while Italy and Spain's rates rose slightly.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.02
The dollar index rose to a 4-month high on Monday, trading up 0.48%. The US ISM Manufacturing Index for March rose by 2.5 to 50.3, beating expectations of 48.3 and the highest level in a year and a half. In addition, the dollar was supported by comments from Fed Chairman Powell, who said last Friday that the Fed would not be in a hurry to cut interest rates. As a result, the strengthening of the dollar on Monday put pressure on the euro. EUR/USD quotes fell to a one-month low. Trading activity in the euro was below average on Monday as Eurozone markets were closed due to the Easter holiday.
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The Forecast – 2024.04.01
On Friday, the euro traded below $1.08, extending its first-quarter losses to around 2.3%, amid speculation that the ECB may cut interest rates soon. Many traders expect lower borrowing costs, with June considered the most likely time frame. ECB officials are confident that inflation trends will return to the 2% target by mid-2025, especially as wage growth slows, strengthening the case for lower interest rates. Meanwhile, French inflation fell more than expected to 2.3% in March, while Spain's inflation rose to 3.2%, and Italy's inflation rose to 1.3% versus forecasts of 1.4%.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.29
The dollar index rose to a 6-week high on Thursday, ending the trading with 0.20% growth. As a result, EUR/USD quotes fell to a 5-week low. Fed member Waller's hawkish comments on Wednesday night boosted the dollar when he said that the Fed would not be in a hurry to ease monetary policy. The US dollar extended gains amid the release of mostly better-than-expected US economic reports on Thursday, which were hawkish for Fed policy. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 10% at the next FOMC meeting on May 1 and 67% at the June 12 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.28
During the first quarter of 2024, the European currency declined by almost 2% against the US dollar after the European Central Bank changed its dovish stance. On Wednesday, ECB board spokesman Piero Cipollone said that the ECB is becoming increasingly confident in the prospect of inflation returning to its 2% target by mid-2025 as wage growth slows, bolstering the case for lower interest rates. Investors now expect an ECB rate cut in June, although opinions are divided on whether two or three more cuts will follow before the end of the year. Meanwhile, the dollar maintained its recent gains as investors reduced their expectations of the Federal Reserve's significant interest rate cut in response to strong US economic data and cautious statements from central bankers.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.27
Stronger demand for the dollar at the end of the quarter and month contributed to the decline in EUR/USD quotes. Pressure on the euro was also exerted by dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Müller, who expressed confidence that the ECB may start cutting interest rates in June. The ECB is 94% likely to cut rates in June, while the US Fed is 74% possible. Thus, both central banks plan to start the downward cycle in June. Since expectations are about the same, EUR/USD pricing will not change much in the median term.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.26
Weaker-than-expected US economic news on Monday pressured the US dollar after an unexpected decline in February's new home sales. The weaker dollar on Monday caused some short covering in EUR/USD. However, the euro's gains were limited by dovish comments from ECB Governing Council spokesman Panetta, who said Eurozone inflation is falling fast, allowing for the possibility of interest rate cuts sooner. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 6% at the next meeting on April 11 and 87% at the June 6 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.25
The euro fell to $1.08, hitting its lowest level since February 29, as dovish comments from typically hawkish European Central Bank policymakers boosted hopes that the bloc's central bank may start cutting rates soon. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said on Friday that the ECB may consider cutting rates before the summer break as inflation continues to fall toward the bank's 2% target. Nagel's sentiment coincides with a growing chorus of policymakers favoring a possible rate cut in June. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% at the next meeting on April 11 and 94% at the June 6 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.22
On Thursday, the euro gave up early gains and declined after an unexpected fall in the Mar S&P Eurozone Manufacturing PMI, which was dovish for the ECB policy. The March Eurozone Manufacturing PMI from S&P unexpectedly fell by 0.8 to 45.7, weaker than expectations of a rise to 47.0. The euro's losses accelerated after stronger-than-expected economic reports from the US lent support to the dollar. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 3% at the next meeting on April 11 and 88% at the June 6 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.21
The US dollar gave up early gains on Wednesday and moved lower after the results of the FOMC meeting showed that policymakers maintained their forecast of a 75 bps interest rate cut this year. The FOMC, as expected, kept the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting and said it expects greater confidence in inflation before cutting interest rates. The FOMC raised its 2024 GDP forecast to 2.1% from 1.4% in December and its 2024 PCE core inflation forecast to 2.6% from 2.4% in December. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps FOMC rate cut at 17% for the May 1 FOMC meeting and 82% for the subsequent June 12 meeting. The euro posted solid gains on Wednesday after the dollar weakened following the FOMC meeting. EUR/USD also found support after ECB President Lagarde said that the ECB could not commit to additional rate cuts after a likely rate cut in June.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.20
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The rate is expected to remain at 5.5% at the current meeting, but the real factor may be the press conference after the meeting. Investors will be paying attention to any clues about the prospects for a central bank rate cut, the strength of the US economy, and the possibility of an inflationary rebound. Powell's softer stance and confidence in a rate cut in the summer or spring could trigger a sell-off in the US dollar and purchases of risk assets (euros, indices) and gold. Conversely, if Powell refuses to cut rates this summer, it may put additional pressure on the euro and other currencies.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.19
On Monday, the euro initially moved up on the back of rising German bond yields, with the 10-year German bond yield rising to a two-week high. But then the euro gave up early gains and moved lower on dovish comments from ECB Governing Council spokesman de Cos, who said the ECB would likely start cutting interest rates in June. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% at the next meeting on April 11 and 80% at the June 6 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.18
According to ECB Governing Council Representative Rehn, the projected inflation in the Eurozone this year and next will be close to the 2% target, allowing the ECB to gradually start taking its foot off the monetary policy brake as summer approaches. Swaps are pricing in a 25 bps chance of an ECB rate cut of 8% at the next meeting on April 11 and 85% at the June 6 meeting. The Eurozone will release its final inflation report today, but no changes are expected.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.15
The dollar index gained 0.57% on Thursday's hawkish US PPI report, which made market participants somewhat weaken their expectations of a Fed rate cut in the next few months. The dollar index was also supported by a 10 bps surge in 10-year T-note yields on Thursday, which improved the dollar interest rate differential. Following the report, the probability of a rate cut from the US Fed fell from 73% to 67%.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.14
On Wednesday, the US dollar gave up Tuesday's small rally, triggered by a slightly hawkish US CPI report. The US retail sales and producer price index reports will be released today. February retail sales are expected to rise by 0.8% m/m, reversing January's 0.8% decline. The producer price index for final demand is forecast to rise to 1.2% y/y from 0.9% in January, but the core producer price index will decline to 1.9% y/y from 2.0% in January. A jump in retail sales and a rise in producer inflation could support the dollar, which would be negative for the euro.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.13
The dollar index gained support after markets slightly lowered expectations for Fed rate cuts over the next few meetings following Tuesday's inflation report. Tuesday's US CPI report for February at 0.4% m/m matched market expectations. Meanwhile, the year-over-year CPI reading of 3.2% y/y was slightly stronger than the market's expectation of 3.1%. The core CPI annualized 3.8% y/y, below January's 3.9% but slightly above market expectations of 3.7%. The strengthening dollar had a moderate impact on the euro. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 1% for next week's FOMC meeting on March 20, 15% for the May 1 meeting, and 78% for the June 12 meeting. In turn, swaps estimate the chances of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on April 11 at 11% and 91% for the June 6 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.12
Yesterday, the euro felt bearish sentiment after dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representatives Nagel and Villeroy de Galhau last Friday, who said that the ECB may start cutting interest rates in the spring. The US consumer inflation report will be released today. On an annualized basis, overall inflation is expected to fall from 3.2% to 3.1%. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) will fall from 3.9% to 3.8% y/y. In monthly terms, inflationary pressures are expected to rise by 0.3%. If the data comes out in line with consensus, it will indicate that underlying inflationary trends are not intensifying. This situation would increase the likelihood of a rate cut at the June meeting, putting additional pressure on the US dollar. However, any surprise in the form of rising consumer prices may give temporary confidence to the dollar, which will not pressure the euro.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.11
The dollar came under pressure on Friday after the February US unemployment report reinforced expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates in time for the June FOMC meeting. US non-farm payrolls for February rose by 275,000, exceeding expectations of 200,000. However, January data was revised downward to 229,000 from the previously announced 353,000. The unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 3.9% in February, indicating a weak labor market compared to expectations of no change at 3.7%. The US average hourly earnings for February fell to 4.3% y/y from 4.4% y/y in January, matching expectations. By the end of the trading day on Friday, the euro was also under pressure after the words of ECB representatives Nagel and de Galhau that the first ECB rate cut would take place this spring.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.08
As expected, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged in March and confirmed that borrowing costs will remain elevated as long as necessary. During the regular press conference, President Lagarde said that policymakers did not discuss cutting rates at this meeting and needed more evidence that inflation was moving towards the target. Nevertheless, the central bank noted a decline in inflation and revised its forecasts downward. The first-rate cut is expected in June. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 14% at the next meeting on April 11 and 93% at the June 6 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.07
Today, euro traders' attention is directed to the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting. Investors expect to get information on the central bank's policy outlook. Policymakers are expected to keep interest rates at current record levels, but traders will scrutinize updated economic forecasts and any guidance from President Christine Lagarde on the timing of potential reductions in borrowing costs. The latest data showed that Eurozone inflation slowed for the second consecutive month to 2.6% in February, slightly above expectations of 2.5%.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.06
The dollar gave up early gains on Tuesday and fell to its lowest in 1 week amid weaker-than-expected economic news on factory orders for January and ISM services for February. In addition, lower bond yields weighed on the dollar on Tuesday as the 10-year T-note yield fell to a 3-week low. The euro initially rose on Tuesday amid a weaker dollar after the S&P Eurozone PMI composite index for February was revised upward. But by the end of the US session, the dollar recovered most of its losses as the decline in equities spurred demand for liquidity in dollars.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.05
The weakening dollar supported the euro's moderate growth on Monday. In addition, Monday's economic news that the Mar Sentix Eurozone Investor Confidence Index rose more than expected to an 11-month high supported the euro. Swaps currently estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 4% at the next meeting on March 7 and 17% at the April 11 meeting. At the same time, markets are pricing the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 2% at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 21% at the April 30-May 1 meeting. The parity of probabilities will be accompanied by parity on the price chart.
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The Forecast – 2024.03.01
The PCE Price Index report will be released today in the United States. The PCE index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation because the index tends to show inflation trends less affected by short-term price changes. Economists expect a 0.3% increase in the index in January after a 0.2% increase in the previous month. With recent economic data releases suggesting that the US economy remains resilient, stronger data could prompt the Fed to postpone further rate cuts. This would strengthen the US dollar and pressure indices and precious metals.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.29
The PCE Price Index report will be released today in the United States. The PCE index is the Fed's preferred measure of inflation because the index tends to show inflation trends less affected by short-term price changes. Economists expect a 0.3% increase in the index in January after a 0.2% increase in the previous month. With recent economic data releases suggesting that the US economy remains resilient, stronger data could prompt the Fed to postpone further rate cuts. This would strengthen the US dollar and pressure indices and precious metals.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.28
Hawkish comments from the Fed supported the dollar and had a limited impact on the indices. Fed spokeswoman Bowman said that inflation will continue to decline if interest rates remain at current levels, but "it is not yet time" to start cutting rates. Kansas City Fed President Schmid also said: "With inflation running above target, labor markets tight, and demand showing considerable momentum, my view is that there is no need to preemptively adjust the stance of monetary policy."
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The Forecast – 2024.02.27
The EUR/USD pair gained 0.21% on Monday. Hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde and ECB Governing Council representatives Stournaras and Makhlouf boosted the euro when they said that the ECB should not rush into a decision to cut interest rates. Swaps put the odds of an ECB rate cut at 25 bps at 4% at the next meeting on March 7 and 27% at the next meeting on April 11. At the same time, the probability of a rate cut by the US Fed at the April meeting is 17%.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.26
Friday's rally of the S&P 500 (US500) to a new record high limited the liquidity demand for the US dollar. However, the euro did not capitalize on this opportunity, causing the price to flatline throughout the day. The euro suffered minor losses amid "dovish" comments from ECB President Lagarde and ECB Governing Council representative Centeno. Lagarde said the latest data in the Eurozone is encouraging, while Centeno said the ECB should be ready for an interest rate cut in March. The odds of a Fed rate cut at the April 30-May FOMC meeting have fallen to 23% from 75% a month ago. Meanwhile, swaps are priced at a -25 bps chance of an ECB rate cut at 34% at the April 11 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.23
The euro found support on Thursday on Eurozone economic news. The Eurozone Composite PMI for February rose by 1.0 to an 8-month high of 48.9, stronger than expectations of 48.4. Stabilizing output in the services sector offset a further sharp decline in manufacturing. Meanwhile, the latest ECB meeting minutes showed that policymakers have reached a consensus that it is premature to discuss interest rate cuts at this stage despite signs of weakening inflationary pressures and looming recession risks. Investors expect fewer than four quarter-point rate cuts before the end of 2024, down from as many as seven at the end of last year. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 3% at the next meeting on March 7 and 29% at the April 11 meeting. Investors have tempered their expectations for an interest rate cut by the ECB, which is positive for the euro.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.22
The FOMC meeting minutes from January 30-31 turned out to be hawkish, but it had little impact on the dollar index. Most participants noted the risks of easing policy too quickly and emphasized the importance of carefully evaluating incoming data to judge whether inflation is on a sustainable path to 2%. Currently, markets are pricing in a 25 bps chance of a rate cut at 7% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 33% for the April 30-May 1 meeting. Just a week ago, the probability of a rate cut in April was over 60%. In turn, swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 2% at the next meeting on March 7 and 38% at the April 11 meeting. As the probabilities have equaled, this could cause some parity in EUR/USD pricing in the coming days and weeks. Inflation data will be released in the Eurozone today. Consumer prices are expected to remain at the same levels. However, any deviations from the forecasts may cause a spike in volatility.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.21
On Tuesday, the dollar index hit a 2-week low because of declining T-note yields. In addition, the strengthening euro had a negative impact on the dollar on Tuesday as strong economic news from the eurozone pushed EUR/USD to a 2-week high. The dollar extended its losses after Tuesday's economic news showed that US leading indicators for January fell more than expected. Today, the US will release the minutes of the January FOMC meeting. At the January 30-31 meeting, policymakers left borrowing costs unchanged, indicating that a rate cut at the upcoming March meeting is unlikely. Therefore, the minutes will likely reference strong US GDP data and a robust labor market. In such a scenario, the dollar index may get temporary support.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.20
On Monday, the euro lost some ground against the US dollar, but as the US market was closed due to Presidents Day, the actual trading activity will come later in the week when the data starts to come in. The first major release will be on Wednesday - the US Federal Reserve's latest monetary policy meeting minutes. With strong US economic data coming out after the January meeting and expectations of a rate cut pushed back to June, the euro could come under pressure.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.19
The euro rose on Friday and pressured the dollar after German 10-year bond yields rose to a 2-month high, increasing the probability differential for an interest rate cut this spring. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at 12% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 37% for the April 30-May -1 meeting. Meanwhile, swaps rate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 7% for the next meeting on March 7 and 44% for the April 11 meeting. The euro was also supported by Friday's hawkish comments from ECB executive board spokesperson Schnabel, who said the ECB should not rush to cut interest rates.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.16
The dollar retreated on Thursday after the US retail sales for January and manufacturing production for January fell more than expected, which increased the probability of Fed interest rate cuts. In addition, a strengthening euro weighed on the dollar after ECB President Lagarde warned against cutting interest rates too quickly. Today, the US will release the PPI report, which shows the inflation rate between factories and plants and is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. A rise in PPI may again reduce the likelihood of an interest rate cut this spring, leading to a stronger US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.15
The Euro recovered slightly from a 3-month low on Wednesday and rose on the back of better-than-expected economic news and hawkish comments from the ECB. Industrial production in the Eurozone unexpectedly rose at the fastest pace in 16 months, and ECB Vice President Guindos said it would take time for Eurozone inflation to return to the 2% target. The euro's gains were limited by the fact that ECB Governing Council representative Makhlouf said he expects the eurozone economy to stagnate in the short term.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.14
The Dollar Index gained 0.71% on Tuesday and reached a 3-month high. The US Consumer Price Index declined to 3.1% (2.9% expected) annually from 3.4%. The core CPI (excluding food and energy) for January was 3.9% y/y, unchanged from December's low and above expectations of 3.7% y/y. The euro initially moved up yesterday after expectations for German economic growth in the February ZEW survey rose more than expected to a 1-year high. But then the euro moved to the downside as the dollar jumped on the back of a stronger-than-expected US CPI report for January. The probability of a rate cut in May from the US Fed fell sharply, and markets now estimate the odds of a 25 bps cut at 11% for the March 19-20 FOMC meeting and 41% for the April 30-May 1 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.13
The Euro fluctuated around $1.077 as investors lowered their expectations for a rate cut by the European Central Bank after several policymakers expressed caution about easing monetary policy. Money markets had been pricing in a less than 50% chance of the ECB's first rate cut in April after officials, including chief economist Philip Lane and Belgian central bank governor Pierre Wunsch, emphasized the need for more evidence that inflation is returning to the 2% target before considering an interest rate cut. In addition, ECB hawk Robert Holtzmann said there is a possibility that there will be no rate cuts at all this year or only at the end of the year.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.12
The dollar declined slightly on Friday after the US Bureau of Labor Statistics left the core US Consumer Price Index for Q4 unchanged at 3.3% y/y, which is dovish for Fed policy. In addition, Friday's rally of the S&P 500 to a new record high reduced liquidity demand for the dollar. The euro rose slightly on Friday thanks to the dollar's weakness. In addition, hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Kazaks pushed German 10-year bond yields to a 2-month high when he said that market expectations for an ECB interest rate cut this spring were too optimistic. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 9% at the next meeting on March 7 and 53% at the April 11 meeting. Meanwhile, the odds of a 25 bps Fed rate cut at the March 19-20 meeting are 19% and 73% for the April 30-May 1 meeting. Thus, the probabilities favor strengthening the European currency against the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.09
The euro rebounded from early losses and rose slightly on Thursday amid hawkish comments from the ECB. ECB Governing Council spokesman Wunsch and ECB, chief economist Lane, said they prefer to wait for more data before deciding on an interest rate cut. The probability of a rate cut from the US Fed at the April meeting is 74%, while the probability of a rate cut from the ECB in April has fallen to 57%. The preponderance of probabilities is in favour of strengthening the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.08
Wednesday's US economic reports were negative for the USD. The trade deficit for December widened to $62.2 bln, more than the expected $62.0 bln. In addition, consumer credit for December increased by $1.561 bln, which was weaker than expectations of $16.000 bln and was the smallest increase in the last 4 months. A weaker dollar on Wednesday and hawkish comments from the ECB supported a moderate rise in the euro. ECB executive board spokesperson Schnabel warned yesterday against cutting interest rates too soon. After the statement, the probability of a rate cut in March dropped from 72% to 64%.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.07
On Tuesday, the decline in T-note yields put pressure on the US dollar. Recent hawkish Fed comments and vital US economic news pushed back the likelihood of a Fed rate cut from the March FOMC meeting to the May meeting, which supports the dollar. The dollar weakness on Tuesday provided some support for the euro. In addition, a bullish factor for the euro was the increase in factory orders in Germany after factory orders in December unexpectedly rose to the highest level in 3 years. Currently, the probability of an ECB rate cut in March is 74%, while the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in March is 23%. The revaluation of probabilities still favours the dollar, which will put pressure on the euro.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.06
The hawkish comments from the Fed on Monday further limited expectations of a Fed rate cut and boosted the dollar. The dollar also added to gains on the back of a stronger-than-expected January ISM Services Business Activity Index, which pushed 10-year T-note yields to a 1-week high. In addition, the weaker-than-expected Eurozone PPI report was dovish for ECB policy and bearish for the Euro. Currently, the probability of an ECB rate cut in March is 68%, while the probability of a Fed rate cut in March is 16%. It is due to the strength of the US economy that there was a reassessment of probabilities in favor of the dollar, which puts pressure on the euro.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.05
The Dollar Index rose to a 7-week high on Friday, gaining 0.82% as bond yields rose on the back of a stronger-than-expected US payrolls report for January. The report indicates a strengthening labor market, which is hawkish for Fed policy and pushes back expectations of a Fed rate cut. The dollar continued to rise after the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index for January was revised upward to a 2-year high. Markets estimate the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20 FOMC meeting at 22% and the probability of the same 25 bps rate cut at the April 30-May 1 meeting at 89%.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.02
Weekly initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly rose to a 2-month-high yesterday, while Q4 nonfarm labor productivity rose more than expected, which is dovish for Fed policy. As a result, the euro recovered from a 7-week low on Thursday and ended trading moderately higher. Economic news yesterday also contributed to the euro's gains. Consumer prices in the Eurozone rose more than expected, a hawkish factor for ECB policy. Swaps put the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on March 7 at 17% and at the April 11 meeting at 94%. Thus, economists expect almost 100% rate cuts from the US Fed and ECB this spring.
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The Forecast – 2024.02.01
As expected, the FOMC kept the Fed Funds target range at 5.5% and said that the risks to employment and inflation targets are becoming more balanced. The euro gave up an early rally on Wednesday and suffered moderate losses after hawkish comments from Fed Chair Powell pushed the dollar higher. The euro was also impacted by Wednesday's consumer price report from Germany, which showed that the January German consumer price index rose less than expected, a dovish factor for ECB policy. ECB Vice President Gindos said that inflation has been delivering mostly positive surprises lately and will be slightly lower than the ECB's forecast.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.31
The dollar index declined by 0.19% on Tuesday amid some liquidation of long positions ahead of the results of the 2-day FOMC meeting on Wednesday. In addition, a strengthening euro pressured the dollar amid stronger-than-expected economic news from the Eurozone. Eurozone Q4 GDP was revised upward to an unchanged q/q figure from the previously reported negative 0.1%. Spain's Consumer Price Index for January (EU harmonized) unexpectedly rose to 3.5% y/y from 3.3% y/y in December, stronger than expectations of a decline to 3.0% y/y.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.30
The EUR/USD pair hit a 1.5-month low on Monday. On Monday, the euro came under pressure after dovish comments from ECB officials increased speculation that the ECB will start cutting interest rates as early as April. ECB Vice President Gindos said inflation risks are receding, and this will soon be reflected in monetary policy. His counterpart, ECB Governing Council representative Centeno, said the ECB should cut interest rates sooner rather than later as it sees plenty of evidence that inflation is falling steadily. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on March 7 at 28% and fully discount (100%) the odds of the same rate cut at the April 11 meeting.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.29
The EUR/USD pair initially fell to a 6-week low on Friday after the German Feb GfK Consumer Confidence Index unexpectedly fell to an 11-month low. But by the end of the trading day, the EUR recovered on hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Kazaks, who said that the grossest mistake the ECB could make would be premature easing, which would allow inflation to bounce back. There is a lot of essential EU and German economic data coming out this week that will help determine the course of the Euro in the coming weeks. Q4 GDP data in Germany and the Eurozone is likely to show further contraction, with January inflation falling further. This will increase the likelihood of an ECB rate cut this spring and put pressure on the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.26
The US dollar rose moderately on Thursday after the US Q4 GDP grew more than expected, which may prompt the Fed to postpone interest rate cuts. Q4 US GDP rose by 3.3 % (y/y), exceeding expectations of 2.0%. The rise in the dollar index had a negative impact on the euro. Additional pressure on the euro was also exerted by data on the German business climate index from IFO, which unexpectedly fell to a 3-year low. EUR/USD losses accelerated after ECB President Lagarde said that the Eurozone economy "probably" stagnated in Q4, which increased the probability of ECB interest rate cuts. The probability of a rate cut in April jumped from 60% to 93%.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.25
Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold its first monetary policy meeting on Thursday. All last week, ECB officials were unanimous in their opposition to an interest rate cut anytime soon. They have partially succeeded in dampening those expectations, but it should be understood that interest rates will be cut by almost 100% this year. The only question is when. The swaps market believes that there is about a 15% chance that the ECB will change its policy in March. A first-rate cut is fully predicted for April. There is no chance of a policy change at this meeting, but ECB President Lagarde's press conference at 15:45 will play an important role in shaping expectations going forward. If there are clear signals about the timing of the rate cut, it could lead to a strong price imbalance — the longer the ECB holds rates, the stronger the euro will be against the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.24
On Tuesday, the US dollar recovered from the losses of the last few days and went up on the back of rising T bond yields. A recalculation of the probability of a Fed rate cut is helping to boost the dollar as swap markets now estimate the odds of a Fed rate cut at the March FOMC meeting at 48%, down from the 60% the market estimated earlier this month. The dollar's rebound on Tuesday put pressure on the euro. Meanwhile, the euro's losses accelerated after the Eurozone consumer confidence index unexpectedly declined in January. Today, we will see the release of manufacturing PMI and services PMI statistics for many European countries. These data will show how business activity, which was in contraction territory in most countries at the beginning of the year.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.23
Last week, a series of hawkish comments from ECB officials tempered expectations of a rate cut soon, leading markets to expect the ECB to cut rates by around 130 basis points this year. Minutes from the ECB's December meeting showed officials' confidence that inflation would return to the target but emphasized the need to maintain a restrictive policy for some time, reflecting differing views on the timing of reaching that target. Traders will be keeping a close eye on flash PMI data due out on Wednesday and the European Central Bank's upcoming interest rate decision on Thursday. Although the ECB is expected to keep monetary policy unchanged, the focus will be on President Christine Lagarde's speech to get any signals on the possible timing of interest rate cuts.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.22
All last week, the ECB representatives unanimously opposed the interest rate cuts. The politicians partially managed to weaken these expectations, but it should be understood that interest rates will be reduced this year by almost 100%. The only question is when and which bank will be the first to cut rates. This week on Thursday will be the first ECB meeting of the year. There is no chance of policy changes, but ECB President Lagarde's press conference will be important in shaping expectations for the future. The swaps market believes there is about a 15% chance that the ECB will change policy in March. The first-rate cut is fully discounted for April.
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The Forecast – 2024.01.19
The US dollar rose slightly yesterday as better-than-expected US economic reports on weekly jobless claims and December housing starts pushed T-note yields higher. The dollar's strength on Thursday put pressure on the euro. But losses in EUR/USD were limited by Thursday's hawkish report on the ECB's December 13-14 meeting, which showed that ECB officials abandoned market expectations of an ECB interest rate cut.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.18
Boeing (BA) shares fell more than 6% yesterday, topping the list of losers in the S&P500 (US500) and NASDAQ (US100) after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to neutral from upgraded, citing an increased risk that growing scrutiny of the company's manufacturing quality will affect production or delivery rates. Morgan Stanley (MS) shares fell more than 4% yesterday after the bank reported fourth-quarter sales and trading revenue of $2.20 billion, below consensus of $2.26 billion. Apple (AAPL) is down more than 1% after the company cut prices on the iPhone 15 and other products in China in an attempt to spur weak demand for new models. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) are up more than 3% after KeyBanc Capital Markets raised its price target on the company's stock from $650 to $740.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.17
On Monday, the US dollar rose on the back of rising T-note yields and hawkish comments from Fed member Waller, who said that the Fed has no reason to cut rates as fast as in the past. As a result, EUR/USD fell to a 1-month low on Tuesday. The decline in inflation expectations in the Eurozone was a dovish factor for ECB policy and a bearish factor for the euro. In addition, comments from ECB Governing Council representatives Centeno and Simkus put further pressure on the Euro on Tuesday, with Centeno saying that Eurozone GDP in the first quarter still looks rather stagnant and Simkus saying that he is much less optimistic than the markets about an ECB rate cut. Eurozone inflation data will be released today, but no change is expected.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.16
The Euro got a little support at the end of the day after the representative of the ECB Governing Council, Dr. Joachim Nagel, said that it is too early to talk about rate cuts, that inflation is still too high, and that markets are sometimes too optimistic. Nevertheless, financial markets continue to forecast a series of ECB rate cuts this year, with the first 25 bps rate cut expected at the April meeting.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.15
On Friday, the euro initially rose on positive economic news after French consumer spending unexpectedly rose by 0.7% m/m, which exceeded expectations of a 0.2% m/m decline and was the biggest increase in the last five months. But by the end of the day, the euro declined as the dollar's recovery caused the liquidation of long positions in the euro. EUR/USD was also affected by dovish comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said that once the ECB's 2% inflation target is met, she is "very confident that interest rates will start to fall." Swaps currently estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 4% at the next meeting on January 25 and 43% at the March 7 meeting.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.12
The US dollar strengthened yesterday after the US Consumer Price Index for December rose more than expected, easing expectations of a rate cut by the Fed this spring. The US Consumer Price Index for December rose to 3.4% y/y from 3.1% y/y in November, beating expectations of 3.2% y/y. The core CPI for December declined to 3.9% y/y from 4.0% y/y in November, the lowest reading in 2 years, but above expectations of 3.8% y/y. In addition, signs of a strengthening labor market in the US provided further support to the dollar. Weekly initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly declined to the lowest level in 2.5 months.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.11
The monthly inflation report will be released today in the US. The overall consumer inflation rate is expected to rise to an annualized rate of 3.2% from 3.1%. The core rate, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is expected to fall from 4% y/y to 3.8% y/y. Lower inflation will increase the probability that the Fed may start cutting interest rates as early as March. In such a scenario, the US dollar would come under pressure, which would give a boost to risky assets such as the euro. On the other hand, rising inflation, on the contrary, will reduce the likelihood of a rate cut this spring and reduce the number of basis points of rate cuts for the whole year. This will support the US dollar and put pressure on the euro.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.10
The Eurozone unemployment rate fell to a new low of 6.4% in November. Compared to October 2023, the number of unemployed fell by 99,000. Even though the Eurozone is going through a bad time, the year-on-year GDP growth in the third quarter and probably in the fourth quarter was close to zero. This did not affect the unemployment rate, which fell over the year. Thus, a steady labor market will allow the ECB to keep the rate at the current level, which will support the Euro. Swaps estimate the chances of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 2% at the next meeting on January 25 and 40% at the meeting on March 7.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.09
The euro rose slightly on Monday on hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Vujcic, who said that the ECB will probably not cut interest rates until the summer. Also bullish for the euro was a report that showed a larger-than-expected rise in Eurozone economic confidence to an 8-month-high. The Eurozone economic confidence indicator rose by 2.4 to 96.4, exceeding expectations of 94.2. The Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index for January rose by 1.0 to an 8-month high of a negative 15.8, which was in line with expectations.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.08
The latest US jobs report, which showed a larger-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls, lowered expectations that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates as early as March. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index for December rose from 2.4% y/y to 2.9% y/y, which was in line with expectations. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) fell to 3.4% y/y in December from 3.6% y/y in November, which matched expectations and was the lowest rate of growth in 21 months. Markets estimate the odds of a 25 bps rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 30-31 at 7% and 70% at the March 19-20 meeting. Swaps estimate the odds of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 4% at the next meeting on January 25 and 49% at the March 7 meeting. A resilient US labor market and lower Eurozone inflation could push back the first-rate cut by central banks.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.05
The euro rose on Thursday as December's upward revision of the Eurozone PMI composite index boosted European government bond yields and eased speculation of an ECB interest rate cut. German CPI for the decade (EU harmonized) rose by 0.2% m/m to 3.8% y/y, weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 3.9% y/y growth. Nonfarm payrolls will be released in the US today. If the figures are worse than expected, the dollar's decline may intensify, which will give confidence to risky assets (EUR, GBP). Conversely, if the Nonfarm data comes out better than expected, we may see a strengthening of the US dollar. The stronger the labor market, the more stable the economy is in a period of high interest rates.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.04
The minutes of the FOMC meeting of December 12-13 showed no signs of a Fed rate cut and provided support to the USD. The minutes also showed that policymakers agreed that it is appropriate to maintain a restrictive policy for some time until inflation begins to decline steadily. The probability of a rate cut at the March 2024 meeting fell to 77% from 99% last week. The strengthening of the dollar on Wednesday harmed the euro. In addition, economic data showed that Germany's unemployment rate for December rose to a 2-year high of 5.9%. Today, Germany will release inflation data, where there may be surprises in the form of growth, which may provide some support for the euro.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.03
The escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East boosted the demand for the dollar as a safe haven. As a result, the US dollar rose to a one-week high on Tuesday, putting pressure on the euro and other risk assets. Additionally, traders were digesting the latest PMI data indicating that factory activity in the Eurozone contracted for the 18th consecutive month in December. Regarding monetary policy, markets indicate that the probability of a Fed funds rate cut from March is around 80%; for the ECB, the probability is 61%.

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The Forecast – 2024.01.02
The US dollar started the fourth quarter on the rise, briefly reaching its strongest position in almost a year. However, the dollar was unable to sustain the upward momentum for long. With inflation falling, markets began to forecast aggressive rate cuts over the next few years in an attempt to get ahead of the US Federal Reserve's next easing cycle. In December, the FOMC changed its rhetoric to a more dovish tone and sent a clear signal that officials want to change policy in time to ensure a soft landing. This will put pressure on the dollar in the coming weeks. But any pause in or reversal of the underlying trend in consumer prices next year could be a disaster for sentiment, leading to a revision to hawkish interest rate expectations.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.29
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. Yesterday, the price reached an important resistance level at 1.1117, where sellers showed a reaction. The MACD indicator still shows divergence, with the price trading at the level of the moving averages. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1058 but are subject to buyers' reaction. A breakdown of 1.1058 will open the way for the price to 1.1010. Selling can be sought from the resistance level of 1.1097, but also with confirmation and short targets, as these will be positions against the main trend.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.28
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish. The resistance level of 1.1046 was confidently broken yesterday. At the moment, the price has reached another important resistance level at 1.1117, but the reaction of sellers is weak. Divergence continues to form on the MACD indicator, which indicates a high probability of a corrective wave. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.1072 but are subject to buyers' reactions. Selling can be sought from the resistance level of 1.1117, but also with confirmation and short targets, as these will be positions against the trend. A breakout of 1.1117 will open the way to 1.1171.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.27
EUR/USD gained 0.34% on Tuesday and reached a 4-month high. The dollar weakness on Tuesday was the main support factor for the euro. Forex trading activity was weak on Tuesday as European markets were closed due to the Boxing Day holiday. Swaps estimate the chances of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at 3% at the next meeting on January 25 and 60% at the next meeting on March 7.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.26
Thursday's US GDP data and Friday's PCE Core data failed to meet expectations. Both of these releases contributed to the dollar's decline. Market participants continue to build up expectations of a rate cut from the US Federal Reserve. Market participants currently estimate the probability of a Fed rate cut in March 2024 at 78%. At the same time, swaps estimate the chances at 3% of a 25 bps ECB rate cut at the next meeting on January 25 and 60% at the March 7 meeting. Thus, both central banks intend to cut rates in the spring, so fundamentally, both currencies will be balanced against each other.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.22
The dollar came under pressure on Thursday due to weaker-than-expected US GDP and Philadelphia Fed reports, which proved to be dovish for the Fed's policy. In addition, hawkish comments from ECB Vice President Guindos boosted the Euro when he said that Eurozone inflation needs to get closer to 2% before the ECB can cut interest rates.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.21
The euro came under pressure on Wednesday on signs of easing price pressures in Europe, which is dovish for ECB policy after Germany's Producer Price Index (which displays the rate of inflation between factories) fell more than expected in November. On the other hand, the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index for December rose by 1.8 to a 5-month high of minus 15.1, stronger than expectations of minus 16.3. This limited euro losses. Overall, parity between the euro and the dollar has been maintained. With Christmas and New Year ahead, volatility will start to decline today, and the price may go sideways for two weeks.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.20
Dovish comments from US Fed representatives and hawkish comments from ECB politicians provoked the growth of EUR/USD quotes. President of FRB Richmond Barkin and President of FRB Atlanta Bostic supported the view that the Fed will cut interest rates soon if the progress in inflation continues. At the same time, ECB policymakers Kazaks and Simkus denied the assumptions that the ECB will cut interest rates already in the first quarter of next year. Thus, the euro will get an advantage over the US dollar because the interest rate differential between banks will decrease.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.19
On Monday, the euro showed moderate growth amid hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council representatives Kazimir and Vasle, who denied speculation that the ECB would start cutting interest rates early next year. But the euro's gains were limited after Germany's IFO business climate index for the decade unexpectedly fell by 0.8 to 86.4, weaker than expectations of a rise to 87.7. The Eurozone will release its November inflation report today. The figures are expected to remain at current values. However, if the data sharply contrasts with the forecast, it may create an imbalance, which will lead to a sharp movement of quotations. The growth of inflationary pressure will contribute to the strengthening of the euro and vice versa.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.18
Hawkish comments from the Fed officials on Friday provided support for the dollar. New York Fed President Williams and Atlanta Fed President Bostic indicated that it is premature to talk about a rate cut in March 2024, and if inflation declines as expected, the most optimal time to cut rates will form in Q3 2024. In addition, weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic news put pressure on EUR/USD quotes after Eurozone manufacturing and service sector activity contracted more than expected. Overall, the US Fed is expected to cut rates by 75-125 bps next year, while the ECB is expected to cut rates by 75 bps. As a result, throughout the year, the euro and the US dollar will be balanced with a slight advantage on the side of the euro.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.15
On Thursday, the euro added to Wednesday's gains and reached a 2-week-high. As expected, the ECB left the deposit rate unchanged at 4.00%. At the same time, the ECB lowered its 2023 Eurozone GDP forecast to 0.6% from a 0.7% forecast and its 2023 core inflation forecast to 5.0% from 5.1% annualized. The euro's rise was accelerated by hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde, who said ECB policymakers did not discuss interest rate cuts at the current meeting. Swaps tied to ECB meeting dates indicate a 9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the ECB's January 25 meeting and estimate a 64% probability that the ECB will cut the benchmark rate by the same 25 bps at its March 7 meeting.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.14
Today, the European Central Bank (ECB) will hold a monetary policy meeting. With a probability of almost 100%, the ECB will leave the interest rate at 4.5%. There is growing evidence that the Governing Council is divided on what to convey to the markets. Some board officials said they remain open to the prospect of a further rate hike, and others said it is too early to discuss a rate cut, and still others acknowledged that a rate cut will indeed be considered during 2024. Meanwhile, downward revisions to GDP growth and inflation forecasts are expected. Markets are currently pricing in a 135 bps rate cut from the ECB over the next 12 months, with the first rate cut in March 2024 already a reality.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.13
The US Consumer Price Index for November decreased to 3.1% y/y from 3.2% y/y, which was in line with expectations. The November CPI was the lowest in the last five months. The core inflation report (excluding food and energy prices) for November came in at plus 4.0% y/y and matched expectations. The euro received support from signs of confidence in the Eurozone economy after expectations for German economic growth in the December ZEW survey unexpectedly rose to a 9-month high. The US Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting today. No rate hikes are expected at this meeting, so the focus will be on the inflation outlook, the economic outlook, and the likelihood of a rate cut.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.12
The US inflation report will be released today. Overall consumer inflation is expected to decline from 3.2% to 3.1% y/y, while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is expected to remain unchanged at 4% y/y. Such data will increase the Fed's comfort level for keeping rates on hold at tomorrow's meeting. At the same time, a stronger fall in inflation will help convince officials to accelerate the expected interest rate cuts in their forecast for next year. The prospect of accelerated rate cuts is positive for stock indexes and negative for the US dollar. However, if core inflation unexpectedly shows signs of growth, this would cause officials to keep rates on hold for a longer period, and the rate cut would be delayed. In such a scenario, the dollar index will get temporary support.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.11
Friday's US economic news was hawkish for Fed policy and bullish for the dollar. Nonfarm payrolls for November rose by 199,000, exceeding expectations of 185,000. The November unemployment rate fell by 0.2% to a 4-month low of 3.7%, indicating a robust labor market. The US jobs report for November boosted the dollar and depressed the euro. That said, the market's reassessment of the probabilities of central bank rate cuts now points to some parity between the euro and the dollar. Swaps tied to ECB meeting dates indicate a 64% probability that the ECB will cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps at its March 7 meeting. Meanwhile, markets are predicting a near 100% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the March 19-20, 2024 FOMC meeting.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.08
The euro initially fell to a 3-week low on Thursday after an unexpected drop in German industrial production in October pushed German 10-year bond yields to an 8-month low. However, the euro rose moderately towards the end of the trading session as dollar weakness triggered short covering in EUR/USD. The European Statistical Office confirmed an estimate that gross domestic product (GDP) in the eurozone contracted by 0.1% in the third quarter compared to the previous three months. Surveys suggest that the ECB will start cutting rates in the second quarter of next year, earlier than previously thought, as the economy enters a short and shallow winter recession.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.07
On Wednesday, Deutsche Bank said it expects the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates by 150 basis points (bps) next year, 50 bps more than its previous forecast, as inflation falls and central bank officials take a less hawkish tone. Data released last week showed Eurozone inflation fell to 2.4%, well below expectations for the third consecutive month. ECB spokesperson Isabel Schnabel, a known hawk, removed the question of further rate hikes this week, prompting traders to move bets on the first-rate cut to March next year. This is one of the main reasons for the euro's weakness.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.06
The US dollar found support on Tuesday amid increased demand for safe-haven housing after Moody's Investors Service downgraded China's credit outlook from stable to negative due to rising debt. Euro weakness also supported the dollar after dovish comments from the ECB dropped EUR/USD to a 3-week low on Tuesday. ECB executive board spokeswoman Schnabel said that inflation in the Eurozone is showing a marked slowdown, making another interest rate hike rather unlikely.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.05
The dollar index gained 0.42% on Monday and posted a 1-week-high. The dollar rose amid concerns that markets may be overly optimistic about the chances of a Fed rate cut early next year. In turn, the euro gave up early gains and retreated amid dovish comments from ECB Governing Council spokesman Centeno, who warned that the labor market consequences of too much monetary tightening could be swift when the economy turns around. Swaps tied to ECB meeting dates estimate a 73% probability that the ECB will cut the benchmark rate by 25 bps at its March 7 meeting.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.04
The ISM manufacturing index in the US for November contracted more than expected, which is a dovish factor for the Fed's policy. Meanwhile, dollar losses accelerated on Friday after US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Chicago Fed President Goolsbee announced their support for keeping interest rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 12-13. The Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for November was revised upward by 0.4 to 44.2 from the initially published reading of 43.8. The Euro was thus supported towards the end of the trading week and managed to close in positive territory. This week, the Eurozone GDP data for Q3 will be published, where the economy is expected to shrink, which may negatively affect the European currency, especially if the US labor market data is strong.

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The Forecast – 2023.12.01
On Thursday, hawkish comments from New York Fed President Williams and San Francisco Fed President Daly pushed bond yields higher and contributed to dollar strength. In addition, a weaker-than-expected Eurozone consumer price report proved dovish for ECB policy and pressured the euro to favor the dollar. The Eurozone Consumer Price Index fell to 2.4% y/y from 2.9% y/y, the smallest increase in 2 years. The core CPI for November also declined to 3.6% y/y from 4.2% y/y. Weakening price pressures have sharply increased the probability of an ECB rate cut by 25 bps at the April 11 meeting.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.30
Economic news on Wednesday showed that the US GDP for the third quarter was revised upwards. In addition, weakening price pressures in Germany and Spain are dovish for ECB policy, which pressured the euro. German inflation fell from 3.8% to 3.2% (3.5% expected), a 2.5-year low. Spanish inflation fell from 3.5% to 3.2% (expectation of 3.7%). Eurozone inflation data will be released today. The ECB's preferred core consumer price index is expected to fall from 4.2% to 3.9% year-on-year. Given that the Eurozone economy could enter a technical recession in the fourth quarter, lower inflationary pressures and fears of a new energy crisis increase the likelihood that the ECB could go for a rate cut before the Fed does. As a result, further strengthening of the euro is in question.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.29
EUR/USD rose by 0.34% on Tuesday and reached a 3-month-high. Hawkish's comments from the ECB Governing Council representative and Bundesbank President Nagel boosted the euro on Tuesday when he said that the ECB has not yet reached the point where it should consider cutting interest rates. Economic data from Germany also contributed to the rise of the euro. The GfK German Consumer Confidence Index for December unexpectedly rose by 0.5 to minus 27.8, which was stronger than expectations of a decline to minus 28.2. Inflation data will be released today in Germany, where inflationary pressures are expected to ease. This data may weaken the ECB's stance, and on these expectations, the euro may lose some of its past growth.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.28
ECB Head Christine Lagarde is beginning to mislead investors and traders again. Back on Friday, Lagarde indicated that the ECB had done enough, and now it was time to keep rates at the current level and analyze economic data. But yesterday, Lagarde turned on the “hawk” again when she said that inflation in the Eurozone has been running high for too long and that the ECB is keeping a close eye on the exchange rate. This indicates that there is still disagreement within the ECB over future policy.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.27
The dollar retreated on Friday after economic news showed that the US manufacturing PMI for November declined more than expected. The S&P Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.6 to 49.4, weaker than the expected 49.9. In addition, the strengthening of the euro on Friday impacted the dollar after the German IFO Business Climate Index for November rose by 0.4 to a 4-month high of 87.3. With the US Fed monetary policy becoming more dovish, while the ECB remains more hawkish, EUR/USD will slowly move upwards in the medium term.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.24
The preliminary data on the German Manufacturing PMI exceeded the consensus forecast of 41.2 and amounted to 42.3, indicating a partial recovery in the face of the persistent recession. The Business Activity Index in the services sector also exceeded expectations and reached 48.7 against the expected 48.5. The slight improvement does not change the economic forecasts for Germany but may indicate a less strong contraction of GDP expected in the IV quarter.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.23
Stronger than expected economic news from the US on Wednesday on weekly jobless claims and the University of Michigan inflation expectations for November supported the moderate growth of the dollar. The strengthening of the dollar triggered selling in the euro. In addition, EUR/USD was affected by comments from ECB Vice President Guindos, who said that investors may not be fully appreciating the risk of a bigger hit to the Eurozone economy from an interest rate hike.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.22
The FOMC meeting minutes of November 1, released on Tuesday, were neutral with hawkish notes and supported the dollar. The minutes stated the following: "All participants agreed that the committee was in a position to proceed carefully and that policy decisions at every meeting would continue to be based on the totality of incoming information." In addition, virtually all FOMC representatives believe that rates will remain restrictive for some time. The dollar's recovery on Tuesday put pressure on the euro. But, as the ECB remains more hawkish in its policy, the medium-term picture is in favor of further euro strength.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.21
ECB Governing Council representative Wunsch said yesterday that the ECB may have to raise interest rates again if investors' bids for monetary easing undermine the Central Bank's position. For now, markets are taking an “optimistic” view, discounting the possibility of further rate hikes and expecting an ECB rate cut as early as April. At the moment, the ECB still maintains a tight stance on monetary policy, but according to economists, if the pace of wage growth starts to change downward in the near future, the current ECB stance will soften sharply, and the door for a rate cut will be open.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.20
The dollar index remained under pressure on Friday as Tuesday's US inflation news and weekly employment data indicating a slowdown in the labor market strengthened speculation that the Fed will refuse to raise interest rates. Comments from US Fed officials also confirmed this assumption. In addition, hawkish comments from the ECB on Friday supported EUR/USD after representatives of the ECB Governing Council Nagel and Holzmann expressed their opposition to any easing of the ECB monetary policy in the medium term. At this point, the fundamental picture is building in favor of further euro strength.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.17
The main bullish factor for the euro on Thursday was the weakening of the dollar. Weak economic news from the US led to lower bond yields and weakened the dollar's interest rate differential. The dollar was also hurt by dovish comments from Fed officials Cook and Mester, who made it clear that they favor the Fed pausing rate hikes. The EU Commission said that the region will be able to avoid a technical recession, but the latest economic data shows extremely weak statistics - industrial production has been falling since last year, and the GDP forecast was changed downward.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.15
The dollar index fell sharply by 1.50% on Tuesday and hit a 2-month low. The dollar fell sharply after US consumer prices fell more than expected, reinforcing the view that the Federal Reserve has finished raising interest rates. The dollar extended its losses amid dovish comments from FRB President Richmond Barkin, who said he supported a pause in the Fed's work. The dollar's sharp decline on Tuesday was a favorable factor for the euro. In addition, stronger-than-expected German investor confidence provided support for EUR/USD after expectations for German economic growth in a new ZEW survey rose more than expected to an 8-month high.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.14
The October inflation report will be released today in the US. Economists expect core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) to remain unchanged at 4.1% y/y, while overall CPI is expected to decline from 3.7% to 3.3% y/y. A sharper weakening in inflation could lead to renewed talk of peak rate hikes, fueled by the October employment report, which pointed to weakening labor market conditions. For this reason, a fall in inflation is a negative for the dollar and a positive for the euro.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.13
The US dollar came under pressure on Friday after the University of Michigan's US consumer sentiment index fell more than expected to a 6-month low in November. But the euro's gains were also limited amid dovish comments from ECB President Lagarde indicating that she favors a pause in ECB rate hikes. In general, the situation on the EUR/USD currency pair remains stalemate due to the uncertainty of the Eurozone and US central banks for the upcoming meetings.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.10
US Fed Chairman Powell spoke at the IMF's annual academic conference yesterday. In a prepared speech, Powell said that he and his colleagues are pleased that inflation is slowing but that they are not sure if they have done enough to support it and would not hesitate to tighten it if necessary. As a result, stocks came under pressure, and bond yields rose. Comments from some Fed officials indicate that they favor keeping interest rates at current levels. Atlanta FRB President Bostic said yesterday that the Fed will maintain restrictive measures until it is confident that inflation will fall to 2%.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.09
On Wednesday, hawkish comments from the ECB supported the EUR after ECB Governing Council representatives Makhlouf and Kazaks warned that further ECB rate hikes may be necessary to control inflation. In addition, the ECB's monthly survey of consumer inflation expectations showed that Eurozone 1-year inflation expectations rose to a 5-month high in September, which is hawkish for ECB policy.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.08
Tuesday's comments from the US Fed officials eased speculations that the Fed has stopped raising interest rates and were bullish for the USD. The dollar's strength on Tuesday had a negative impact on the euro. In addition, weaker-than-expected Eurozone economic news on Tuesday was negative for the euro: German industrial production for September fell more than expected, and the S&P German construction PMI for October contracted more than forecast.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.07
The US Dollar initially opened lower on Monday on ideas that the Fed's rate hiking regime is over and that the Fed may cut interest rates by mid-2024. But hawkish comments from Fed Vice Chair Brainard helped the dollar recover early losses when she said the US economy was performing exceptionally well and that most forecasters were taking recession off the table. The dollar's recovery on Monday prompted the liquidation of long positions in the euro.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.06
The US unemployment report released on Friday showed weaker-than-expected labor market dynamics. Nonfarm payroll data for October showed that the economy added fewer jobs than expected (150k vs. 180k). In addition, the unemployment rate rose slightly to 3.9%, and average hourly earnings declined month-on-month. Against this backdrop, the US dollar fell sharply on Friday as the weak US unemployment report supported speculation following Wednesday's FOMC meeting that the Fed's rate hike regime is over. The probability of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting is just 4.3%.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.03
Comments from US Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Wednesday after the FOMC meeting reinforced speculation that the Fed is ending its rate hike cycle. The dollar's losses accelerated after Thursday's release of US economic reports showing weekly jobless claims and nonfarm labor productivity rose more than expected in the third quarter, a dovish factor for Fed policy. The dollar weakness on Thursday provided support for the euro. Today, the Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released in the US. If the data points to a robust labor market, it could shift sentiment sharply back in favor of a stronger US dollar. Trading recommendations

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The Forecast – 2023.11.02
Yesterday, the FOMC committee voted unanimously in favor of keeping the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%. According to the FOMC, tighter financial and credit conditions for households and businesses will likely weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. At the press conference, Fed Chairman Powell stated that the Fed may suspend its campaign to raise interest rates indefinitely. Fed Chairman Powell's comments were dovish, which negatively impacted the dollar index.

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The Forecast – 2023.11.01
Eurozone Consumer Price Index for October declined from 4.3% y/y to 2.9% y/y in September, weaker than expected, 3.1% y/y, and the lowest inflation rate in 2 years. Core CPI (excluding food and energy prices) fell to 4.2% y/y from 4.5% y/y in September, which matched expectations and was the lowest level in 15 months. The US Federal Reserve will hold its monetary policy meeting today. The FOMC committee is expected to leave the rate unchanged, so traders' focus will be on Jerome Powell's speech at the press conference after the meeting. If Powell's rhetoric is more "hawkish," it will hit risky assets, such as the euro and the British pound.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.31
The strengthening of the stock markets on Monday reduced the demand for liquidity for the US dollar. In addition, the dollar is pressured by the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will leave its monetary policy unchanged at Wednesday's FOMC meeting. Markets are factoring in a zero probability that the FOMC will raise rates at its next meeting and an 18% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at its next meeting on December 12-13. The dollar's weakening on Monday provided support for the euro. The European currency was also supported by the news that Germany's GDP in the third quarter contracted less than expected, while the Eurozone's economic confidence index also fell less than expected in October. Trading recommendations

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The Forecast – 2023.10.30
Ahead of the FOMC meeting this week, the US dollar rally has paused. This is partly due to fixing positions ahead of the weekend after a week of gains but also due to the dovish rhetoric from Fed officials earlier this month indicating that the tightening of financial conditions as a result of the jump in yields has reduced the need for further tightening. Markets expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged this week on Wednesday. On the other hand, there were no major changes to the ECB's outlook either, with ECB President Lagarde repeating key cautious messages on the outlook for the Eurozone economy. However, inflation risks remain for the Eurozone, which may force Europe's central bank to reconsider its views at the December meeting. In terms of the fundamental picture, EUR/USD will trade in broad consolidation without any leadership of one of the currencies.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.27
The dollar index gained 0.11% on Thursday. Bullish factors were generally strong economic news from the US and safe-haven demand amid a sharp sell-off in equities, as well as due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. In turn, the euro was unable to counter the dollar's rise as the European Central Bank (ECB) left its key rate unchanged at 4.5% on Thursday, in line with market expectations. At the moment, the probability of the ECB rate hike at the December meeting is only 5%, as there has been weak economic data from Eurozone countries lately, with core inflation gradually declining.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.26
Weak corporate reporting data yesterday caused some demand for the dollar index, which put moderate pressure on EUR/USD quotes. But losses in EUR/USD were limited after the October German IFO Business Climate Index rose more than expected. The October's German IFO Business Climate Index rose by 1.1 to 86.9, exceeding expectations of 86.0. The ECB monetary policy meeting will be held today. Economists expect the ECB to keep the rate at 4.5%, but if the ECB sticks to its hawkish course, keeping the door open for another rate hike in December, it may give temporary confidence to the European currency.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.25
On Tuesday, economic news from the US supported the dollar after the US manufacturing PMI for October unexpectedly rose to 50.0, a 6-month-high, stronger than expectations of a decline to 49.5. As a result, EUR/USD declined by 0.67% on Tuesday. The euro declined amid weaker-than-expected news on manufacturing activity and services in the Eurozone for October. At the same time, the negative factor for the euro was the comments of ECB President Lagarde, who said that the Eurozone economy is facing stagnation in the next few quarters.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.24
EUR/USD gained 0.73% on Monday and rose to a weekly high. The Euro went up on Monday following news that the Eurozone Consumer Confidence Index was stronger than expected. For October, the Index fell to 17.9, which was stronger than expectations of 18.2. In addition, the weaker dollar on Monday caused short covering in EUR/USD. The US dollar initially found support yesterday due to a jump in 10-year bond yields to a new 16-year high, but then bond yields reversed and went down.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.23
"Dovish" comments from Philadelphia Fed President Harker and Cleveland Fed President Mester dragged the dollar lower on Friday when they said they favored a continuation of the Fed's pause at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The euro took advantage of the dollar's weakness on Friday, but traders should not expect strong gains as the ECB is also scheduled to keep interest rates unchanged this week. At the same time, the economic indicators of the Eurozone countries lag behind the US in a number of parameters.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.20
On Thursday, the euro gained support amid comments from Fed Chairman Powell, who suggested that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row at the next FOMC meeting on October 31-November 1. This had a negative impact on the dollar and gave confidence to the European currency. Due to the apparent lack of important EU data this week, the euro had few local drivers, but despite this, EUR/USD is showing resilience in the face of rising US bond yields.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.19
The euro weakened on Wednesday amid easing inflationary pressures in the region. The latest data showed that the overall inflation rate in the Eurozone fell from 5.2% to 4.3% year-on-year. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) declined from 5.3% to 4.5%. Undoubtedly, such figures are a "dovish" factor for the ECB. In addition, comments from a representative of the ECB Governing Council on Wednesday put additional pressure on the Euro when he stated that the conflict in the Middle East had shifted the balance against tightening the ECB's monetary policy.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.18
German economic growth expectations in the October ZEW survey rose by 11.4 to 1.1, a 6-month high. The Eurozone indicator was in positive territory, rising from minus 8.9 to plus 2.3. Dovish comments from Fed officials also supported EUR/USD. On Tuesday, FRB Richmond President Barkin gave a "bearish" comment for the dollar, saying that he is unclear about the path of inflation and needs time to assess whether rates have been raised enough. That raises the possibility that the Fed won't raise rates again this year.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.17
The US Dollar retreated on Monday as geopolitical risks in the Middle East eased somewhat and limited demand for the dollar as a safe haven. A number of diplomatic efforts are underway to contain the war between Israel and Hamas. The German wholesale price index for September fell to -4.1% y/y from -2.7% y/y in August, the largest decline in three years. This index is a leading indicator of consumer inflation. For the European currency, it is a negative factor, as the decline in inflation will strengthen the confidence of the ECB that the necessary level of restrictions are in place.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.16
The US Consumer Price Index and Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report showed signs of impending inflationary pressures, which supported the US Dollar at the end of last week. The US Dollar also received support from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East due to its appeal as a safe haven. There are several key data releases this week, including the US retail sales report and Eurozone core inflation. The retail sales data is expected to decline, which could lead to a downward revision of the Fed's outlook. At the same time, economists are forecasting a slight decline in core inflation in the Eurozone. And since the European Central Bank (ECB) officials remain wary of a too rapid transition to an accommodated regime, this situation may have a negative impact on the Euro.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.13
The euro declined sharply on Thursday amid the strengthening dollar and dovish comments from the ECB. ECB Governing Council representatives Centeno and Wunsch said on Thursday that current interest rates are appropriate, and they favor the ECB pausing its interest rate hike campaign. Meanwhile, EUR/USD extended its losses after the ECB's September 13-14 meeting minutes showed that the ECB will suspend interest rate hikes.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.12
The minutes of the FOMC meeting on September 19-20 were mixed. On the one hand, the minutes noted that it is necessary to maintain a restrictive policy, with a possibly one more rate hike before the end of the year. On the other hand, the outlook for the US economy remains uncertain, so the US Fed will proceed cautiously when deciding whether to raise the benchmark interest rate further. Such caution is usually seen as an indication that the Fed is not inclined to raise rates in the near future. Following the FOMC minutes, the probability of new hikes has fallen sharply. There is an 8% probability that the FOMC will raise rates at its next meeting on November 1 and only a 31% probability of a 25 bps rate hike at the December 13 meeting.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.11
Atlanta Fed President Bostic believes that the rate is at a restrictive enough level to bring inflation down to 2%. There is a 14% probability that the FOMC will raise the lending rate by 25 bps at its next meeting on November 1 and a 31% chance of a rate hike at the December 13 meeting. As recently as Friday, the probability was over 50%. Such rhetoric of the Fed policymakers will contribute to the decline of the dollar index, which will open a great opportunity for the euro to rise. The European currency was supported yesterday on the background of hawkish comments of the representative of the ECB Governing Council, Holtzman, who said that the supply shock may force the ECB to continue raising interest rates.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.10
The dollar received support from safe-haven demand at the opening of trading on Monday after Israel declared war on Hamas. However, the dollar gave up most of its gains after stocks recovered from early losses and headed higher, reducing liquidity demand for the dollar. In addition, dovish comments from Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson and Dallas Fed President Logan pressured the dollar when they stated that the recent jump in long-term Treasury yields could mean less need for the Fed to raise interest rates again. Such statements have sharply reduced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this year. In turn, ECB Vice President Guindos said yesterday that the ECB should remain vigilant on inflation, and interest rates are likely to remain at current levels for some time due to oil price developments, the depreciation of the euro, and developments in unit labor costs.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.09
The dollar initially moved up on Friday on the back of a stronger-than-expected US Nonfarm Payrolls report for September. Employment rose by 336,000, well above expectations of 170,000 and the largest increase in eight months. In addition, the August employment data was revised upward by 40,000 to 227,000 from the originally announced 187,000. The unemployment rate for September was unchanged at 3.8%, which was slightly weaker than expectations of 3.7%. Average hourly earnings in the US for September rose by 0.2% m/m and 4.2% y/y, which was weaker than expectations of 0.3% m/m and 4.3% y/y. A negative factor for the dollar was the unexpected reduction in consumer credit in August by $15.62 billion. The euro was supported by a stronger-than-expected report on the volume of factory orders in Germany for August and "hawkish" comments of the representative of the Executive Board of the ECB Schnabel, who said that the ECB will continue to raise interest rates if inflation risks materialize.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.06
The Euro rose moderately on Thursday and was supported by comments from ECB Vice President de Guindos, who said that it was "premature" to discuss a possible interest rate cut amid still strong inflation. But the euro's gains were limited by weaker-than-expected German trade balance data for August and a record decline in the S&P construction PMI for September. Investors' main focus today will be on the Nonfarm Payrolls report. Economists expect the US economy to have added 163,000 jobs last month, down slightly from 187,000 in August. The unemployment rate will fall to 3.7%, and wage growth will remain strong. A resilient labor market will underscore the Fed's stance to "hold rates longer," and this will directly put negative pressure on risk assets such as the euro and the British pound.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.05
The euro found support on Wednesday amid the weakening of the dollar. The dollar came under pressure on Wednesday after the ADP monthly employment report came in less than expected, pushing bond yields lower. In addition, on Wednesday, EUR/USD was supported by hawkish comments from ECB President Lagarde, who stated that the ECB will hold interest rates "for as long as necessary."

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The Forecast – 2023.10.04
The strengthening labor market in the US supported the dollar after the unexpected increase in the number of open jobs in August, according to JOLTS data. In addition, hawkish comments from Fed President Cleveland Mester and Atlanta Fed President Bostic on Tuesday pushed the 10-year T-note yield to a 16-year high and supported the dollar. In turn, the dollar's strength on Tuesday was a major bearish factor for the euro. The jump in government bond yields strengthened the dollar's interest rate differential against the euro.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.03
Eurozone economic news on Monday was favorable for the euro. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector remained at the level of 43.4, while in the main Eurozone countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain), this indicator increased and was better than expected. But in the US session, the situation changed dramatically after the yield on 10-year US bonds rose to a 16-year-high, which strengthened the differential of dollar interest rates against the euro. As a result, the euro fell to almost a 9-month low.

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The Forecast – 2023.10.02
The fundamental picture in the stock market appears to be changing as stocks are unable to bounce back with the same vigor. Rising bond yields are putting pressure on tech companies, and investors are worried that inflated valuations of mega-companies, including Apple (AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), and Amazon (AMZN) could be another weakness. Meanwhile, the "hype" around artificial intelligence is decreasing, and tech stocks are showing signs of vulnerability to rate hikes.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.29
The dollar weakness on Thursday gave temporary confidence to the European currency. At the same time, the euro's growth accelerated amid hawkish comments from ECB Council representative Nagel, who said that the ECB could raise interest rates further "if the data show that further action is warranted." The euro was also supported by Thursday's better-than-expected Eurozone economic confidence data. A negative factor for the euro was Thursday's report that German consumer prices fell sharply from 6.1% to 4.5% y/y, a dovish factor for ECB policy.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.28
The dollar index rose by 0.36% on Wednesday, reaching a 10-month high. The dollar was supported by Wednesday's stronger-than-expected report on new US capital goods orders for August, which helped push the 10-year T bond yield to a 16-year high and strengthened the dollar's interest rate differential. The strengthening dollar put negative pressure on the euro. In addition, a bearish factor for EUR/USD was the decision of five German economic institutions to downgrade their forecasts for German GDP for 2023 from growth to contraction. In addition, weaker-than-expected consumer confidence figures in France and Germany also had a negative impact on the European currency.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.27
The strengthening of the dollar on Tuesday had a negative impact on the euro. "Hawkish" comments from Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari supported the dollar on Tuesday when he said he expects another Fed interest rate hike this year. Also bullish for the dollar were dovish comments from ECB Governing Council representative Müller when he said that he does not currently expect further interest rate hikes from the ECB. Thus, the interest rate differential between the US and European central banks may increase again, which puts downward pressure on EUR/USD quotes.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.26
On Monday, the strengthening of the dollar had a negative impact on the euro, while the hawkish comments of the ECB head, Christine Lagarde, did not help the European currency much. ECB President Lagarde hinted yesterday at a prolonged hold on high rates: "Our future decisions will ensure that the key ECB interest rates are set at sufficiently restrictive levels for as long as necessary ."Another ECB official, Kazaks, indicated that the ECB should beat inflation on the first try and hinted at a possible another rate hike this year.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.25
The latest Eurozone business activity data was mixed. In the manufacturing sector, the index fell from 43.5 to 43.4 (forecast 44.0). In the services sector, the PMI rose from 47.3 to 49.8 (forecast 47.2). So, while manufacturing is suffering, the services sector has almost reached the 50 mark that separates growth from contraction. But this did little to help the European currency. The European currency is under pressure from the rise of the US dollar, which in turn is supported by the Fed's policy. At the same time, the difference in interest rates (5.5% of the US Fed vs. 4.5% of the ECB) also puts additional pressure on the euro.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.22
EUR/USD rose slightly on Thursday after German 10-year bond yields rose to a 12-year high, and ECB Governing Council representatives Nagel and Makhlouf said that the ECB may still have to raise interest rates this year. In addition, the euro was supported by stronger-than-expected French business and manufacturing confidence figures released on Thursday.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.21
The dollar index opened lower on Wednesday amid falling bond yields and rising stock indices, which limited the demand for liquidity for the dollar. However, the US dollar recovered losses and moved higher after a dot plot of FOMC interest rate projections showed that policymakers still expect another rate hike this year. The FOMC committee raised the median target for the federal funds rate for 2024 and 2025 by 50 bps. The FOMC voted unanimously to keep the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 5.25%-5.50%, but 12 out of 19 policymakers expect another 25 bps rate hike this year. The dollar also received support after the FOMC raised the US GDP forecast for 2023 and lowered the unemployment and inflation forecasts.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.20
Eurozone's inflation data came in line with expectations. Overall inflation fell from 5.3% to 5.2% y/y, while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) fell from 5.5% to 5.3% y/y. Against the backdrop of these data, the euro declined expectedly, as lower inflationary pressures are dovish for ECB policy. The euro may come under even more pressure today if the US Fed maintains its hawkish tone for the next meetings.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.19
The revised inflation report for the Eurozone will be released today. Overall inflation is expected to remain at 5.3% in annualized terms, while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is expected to fall from 5.5% to 5.3% y/y. For the EUR, this could be a negative in the short term, as the ECB has probably already completed its tightening cycle, while the US Fed is still hawkish. Looking at the FOMC outlook, markets are factoring in a 31% probability that the FOMC will raise the rate by 25 bps at the November 1 meeting and a 14% probability that the rate will be raised by 25 bps at the December 13 meeting.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.18
The ECB has probably ended the tightening cycle, and now traders have shifted their attention to how long rates will be kept at the current level and when the easing cycle will start. ECB head Christine Lagarde emphasized on Friday that the ECB may raise rates again if necessary, but the probability of such a scenario is extremely low. On Tuesday, traders will be interested in the final data on Eurozone inflation HICP. The revision of this data is infrequent, and as a rule, the revision changes are insignificant. At the end of the week, the flash PMI indices for the main Eurozone economies will be published, which will show the health of the economy in a period of high interest rates.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.15
The European Central Bank unexpectedly raised the interest rate by 0.25% to 4.5% at yesterday's meeting but clarified that this is the maximum level to which rates will rise in this cycle. Such data collapsed the Euro to a 3-month low against the dollar. In addition, the ECB's actions to lower the Eurozone's GDP forecast for 2024 put additional pressure on the Euro. The ECB lowered the Eurozone GDP forecast for 2023 to 0.7% from the previous forecast of 0.9% and raised the inflation forecast for 2023 to 5.6% from the previous forecast of 5.4%. The 25 bps rate cut is largely priced into prices through June 2024. Financial markets took these forecasts in a dovish light despite the rate hike.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.14
The ECB will hold a monetary policy meeting today. The probability of a 25bp ECB rate hike rose to 64% from 46% a day earlier after Reuters reported that the ECB's inflation forecasts to be released today will remain above 3% in 2024, reinforcing support for a more hawkish ECB policy. But even if the ECB decides not to raise rates today, a rate hike is almost guaranteed at the next meeting. This situation will favor the growth of the European currency in the medium term.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.13
Economic data from the Eurozone on Tuesday provided support for EUR/USD after expectations for German economic growth in the ZEW survey for September unexpectedly rose by 0.9 to minus 11.4, which was stronger than expectations for a decline to minus 15.0. The probability that the ECB will raise interest rates by 25 bps at Thursday's meeting rose to 52% from 38% a day earlier. Thus, there is a possibility for some upward correction of EUR/USD.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.12
The weakening of the dollar on Monday supported the euro. EUR/USD gains were limited amid weaker-than-expected economic news from Italy and after the European Commission lowered its 2023 Eurozone GDP forecast, which is dovish for ECB policy. Markets rate the probability of a 25 bps rate hike at this Thursday's ECB meeting at 38%.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.11
Stronger-than-expected economic news from France on Friday kept the euro from further declines. French manufacturing output for July rose by 0.7% m/m, which was stronger than expectations of 0.4% m/m. Also, industrial production for July rose by 0.8% m/m, stronger than expectations of 0.1% m/m. The euro was also supported by a slight increase in expectations of an ECB rate hike on September 14. The probability of a rate hike rose to 38% on Friday from 34%.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.08
Apple (AAPL) stock prices fell again by more than 3% yesterday amid a Wall Street Journal report that China plans to extend its iPhone ban to government agencies and state-owned companies. Shares of Nvidia (NVDA) fell more than 2%, complementing Wednesday's 2% drop after Research Affiliates said the stock is "a textbook story of a Big Market Delusion," and with the stock trading at 110 times earnings, the stock is off the charts.

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The Forecast – 2023.09.07
The ECB's hawkish comments on Wednesday helped keep the Euro from falling too much. Peter Kažimír, a representative of the ECB Governing Council, said that the ECB needs to raise interest rates again to make sure inflation returns to 2%, and a rate hike in September is preferable to a later increase. Another representative of the ECB Governing Council, Klaas Knot, also warned that markets may be underestimating the likelihood of the ECB raising rates next week.
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The Forecast – 2023.09.06
The strengthening of the dollar on Tuesday triggered technical selling of the euro, with it reaching a new low of almost three months. In addition, Tuesday's weaker-than-expected economic news from the Eurozone proved dovish for ECB policy. The Eurozone Composite PMI for August was revised down by 0.3 to 46.7 from the previously announced 47.0, the sharpest rate of contraction in 3 years. But July's Eurozone Producer Price Index (displays the inflation rate between factories and plants) fell to negative 7.6% y/y from minus 3.4% y/y in June, the sharpest decline in 14 years.
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The Forecast – 2023.09.05
Speaking in London yesterday, ECB President Christine Lagarde avoided saying whether the European Central Bank will raise or hold interest rates next week. That said, Lagarde indicated the following: "We have raised rates by a total of 425 basis points in 12 months - a record pace in record time. And we will get inflation back to our medium-term target of 2% in a timely manner." The latest Eurozone inflation data released last week showed the ECB's tracked core rate slowed to 5.3% in August from 5.5% the previous month. The probability that the ECB will raise rates by 0.25% next week is around 25%.
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The Forecast – 2023.09.04
The US Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 187,000 in August, which was stronger than expectations of 170,000. However, the unemployment rate in August unexpectedly rose to its highest level in a year and a half, from 3.5% to 3.8%, indicating a weak labor market. The dollar index reacted with a sharp rise to this data. In addition, the dollar was supported by hawkish comments from Fed Chairman Cleveland Mester. Today is a bank holiday in the United States, so given the lack of important news in the Eurozone, volatility on the EUR/USD currency pair will be low.
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The Forecast – 2023.09.01
The preliminary Eurozone Consumer Price Index for August rose by 0.6% m/m to 5.3% y/y, which was stronger than expectations of 0.4% m/m and 5.1% y/y. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, fell to 5.3% y/y from 5.5%. The data turned out to be mixed - core inflation is falling while the broader measure of consumer prices rose. Steady inflation, along with a robust labor market, could force the ECB to raise the rate higher this year.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.31
Weaker-than-expected economic news from the US on Wednesday on August ADP employment change and second quarter GDP increased speculation that the Fed may hold off on rate hikes, which put pressure on the USD. In addition, better-than-expected August consumer prices in Spain and Germany are hawkish for ECB policy and are boosting the euro against the dollar. Eurozone inflation data will be released today. Any signs of resilience will be a reason for the ECB to raise the rate once again at the September meeting in 2 weeks.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.30
The EUR/USD pair initially declined on Tuesday after the German consumer confidence indicator fell to a 4-month low. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index fell by 0.9 to a 4-month low of minus 25.5, which was weaker than expectations of minus 24.5. But in the US session, the euro jumped on weak economic data from the US, which increased the likelihood of a pause from the Fed in September. This sent the dollar lower and risk assets such as the euro and the pound higher.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.29
The Euro rose moderately on Monday on signs of shrinking liquidity in the Eurozone after the Eurozone's money supply unexpectedly contracted in July by the most in 13 years. In addition, hawkish comments from ECB Governing Council spokesman Holzmann boosted bond yields and the euro exchange rate when he said he believed it was appropriate to continue raising ECB interest rates without pausing.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.28
On Friday, ECB Governor Christine Lagarde, in her speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, did not say anything new. Mrs. Lagarde reiterated that the ECB is now data-dependent and makes decisions at each meeting depending on the current economic situation. This week will see the release of a slew of economic data from countries across Europe. GfK's German consumer climate data on Tuesday and German inflation data on Wednesday will be of interest. Lower inflation and lower consumer sentiment may negatively affect the European currency, as the ECB may take a pause in September.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.25
The dollar index rose to a 2.5-month high on Thursday. The dollar was supported on Thursday by better-than-expected economic news from the United States. Weekly initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell by 10,000 to 230,000, indicating a strengthening labor market. In addition, hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve pushed up bond yields. They supported the dollar after Boston Fed President Collins and former St. Louis Fed President Bullard said that further rate hikes may be needed to control inflation.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.24
The dollar index retreated from its highs on Wednesday after economic news showed that the S&P US manufacturing PMI for August fell more than expected, reinforcing speculation that the Fed will pause its rate hike campaign. EUR/USD also found support after the S&P Eurozone Manufacturing PMI for August rose more than expected.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.23
Today, the data on business activity in Eurozone countries will be published. According to forecasts, the downturn in the manufacturing sector may deepen and negatively affect the larger service sector. The euro has been ignoring negative economic data for months now, focusing on the ECB rate hike, but that can't last forever. Countries like Germany and the Netherlands are already in recession. If PMI business activity data shows a sharp decline, the European Central Bank (ECB) could press for a pause in September, which would come as a surprise for the euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.22
The weakening of the dollar on Monday supported the euro. In addition, the rise in European government bond yields was a favorable factor for EUR/USD. On Monday, the Bundesbank published its monthly report, which stated that the German economy continues to be weak. Still, no further decline in production is forecast. Producer prices (reflecting inflation between production) in Germany fell sharply in July, which will weigh on the ECB ahead of its September meeting, which is harmful to the euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.21
Over the past few weeks, the Euro has lost ground against the Dollar and the British Pound. The US economic data points to economic recovery as the labor market remains resilient, business activity data remains stable, and GDP data rises. Against this backdrop, longer-maturity Treasury bond yields are rising, providing support for the US dollar. This week, the main focus of investors will be on the annual conference of the US Central Bank in Jackson Hole.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.18
US weekly initial jobless claims fell by 9 000 to 239 000, showing a stronger labor market than expected. The resilient labor market combined with hawkish FOMC reports increased the likelihood of another rate hike from the US Fed in the fall or winter. Against this backdrop, US government bond yields reached their highest in almost ten months, further boosting the dollar. Inflation data will be published today in the Eurozone, but no significant changes are expected.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.17
The hawkish bias of the July FOMC minutes led to a sharp rise in government bond yields and a solid rise in the dollar index. The minutes showed that most participants still see significant upside risks to inflation that could lead to further monetary tightening. But economists remain confident that the Fed has already peaked on rates, while the ECB will raise interest rates at least one more time. The dollar index is benefiting from the hawkish sentiment, but fundamentals are shifting toward a lower dollar in the near term.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.16
Today in the US, the July Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting protocols will be released. The July protocols will help investors gauge the Fed's appetite for further rate hikes. Analysts expect the FOMC meeting minutes to show a hawkish sentiment as policymakers unanimously continue to argue that there is still much work ahead and that the fight against inflation is not over. In this case, the market sentiment will favor further growth of the dollar index. But suppose the protocols show caution and complete reliance on incoming data. In that case, the likelihood will increase that the Fed will likely not raise rates again as inflation is steadily declining and rates are in restrictive territory. This "cautious" tone of the FOMC protocols will shift the narrative towards buying risk assets such as the euro and pound.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.15
The Microeconomic Data Center of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York published a survey of consumer expectations. Inflation expectations declined in the short, medium, and long term. Median inflation expectations fell across the board: from 3.8% to 3.5% at the one-year-ahead horizon and from 3.0% to 2.9% at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons. What does it mean? Once central banks peak in interest rates, the medium-term trends in currency pairs will be determined by the differential of those rates, as well as the expectation of lower rates. As a rule, when rates fall, the national currency declines.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.14
The euro showed weak resilience last week, eventually ending the week with a decline. Last week, an unexpected tax on Italian bank profits was announced on Tuesday, sending the euro lower. Prices recovered the following day slightly after assurances from Italy's president that the tax would amount to no more than 0.1% of banks' total assets. Next, rising inflation in the US scared investors, leading to a dollar rise. As a result, the euro fell further towards the end of the trading week. This week, a lot of important Eurozone data will be released, ranging from industrial production and trade balance to GDP and inflation data.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.11
US inflation data came out better than expected. The overall annualized inflation rate rose from 3% to 3.2% (forecast 3.3%), while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) fell from 4.8% to 4.7% (forecast 4.8%). According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability that the Fed will keep the rate on hold at the September meeting rose from 85% to 89%, while the probability of a rate hike at the November meeting remained at 28%. This suggests that investors believe that the Fed rate maximum has been reached.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.10
Consumer Price Index data will be released in the US today. The annualized inflation rate is expected to rise slightly from 3.0% to 3.3%, with core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) falling from 4.8% to 4.7%. Core inflation and services inflation will be the main focus of economists. If these key indicators show a slowdown, it will increase the likelihood that the US central bank will end its tightening cycle this fall. This will be a negative factor for the USD, while for risk assets (GBP, EUR), it will be a growth factor.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.09
The German inflation rate decreased from 6.4% to 6.2% in annualized terms. Consumer prices rose by 0.3% over the past month. The data was in line with the consensus forecast. The report indicates that rising food prices continue to have an upward impact on inflation. In addition, the increase in energy prices was slightly larger than in the previous two months. As a result, despite the slight decline, inflation is still high, which increases the likelihood that the ECB will raise the rate at least one more time before the end of the year.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.08
Industrial production in Germany declined again, which increased fears of further decline in the largest economy of the Eurozone. The main contributors to the negative result were the automotive industry (-3.5%) and the construction sector (-2.5%). German inflation data will also be published today. Consumer prices are expected to decline from 6.4% to 6.2% in annualized terms, but services inflation may show signs of growth again. Money markets are now pricing in the likelihood of an additional 0.25% interest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB), but with the Eurozone's economic data declining, this is likely to be the last hike in this cycle.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.07
The labor market remains strong and confirms the Fed's baseline scenario that the US Central Bank will still be able to give the economy a soft landing and avoid a recession. Employment rose by 187k in July, of which 172k were in the private sector, up from June. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, and the labor force participation rate rose to 60.4%. The number of open vacancies exceeds the number of unemployed by 1.6 times. Analyzing the Federal Funds futures data, the markets still believe that the Fed Funds rate maximum has already been reached. Now the focus of investors has shifted to the publication of data on consumer inflation in the US on August 10.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.04
The monthly report on the labor market Nonfarm Payrolls will be published in the United States today. Economists forecast that the US economy will add 203k jobs in July. The unemployment rate is expected to be 3.6% (currently 3.7%), and average hourly earnings are expected to remain at the same value. With the Fed still undecided on whether to raise rates again, incoming data could play in the dollar's favor if it comes in stronger than expected. But recent data on job openings and weekly jobless claims showed the first signs of a cooling labor market. Therefore, there is a possibility that the NFP report will fall short of expectations.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.03
The dollar index strengthened sharply yesterday. The latest ADP economic data showed that the private sector added 324,000 jobs in July. This was almost double the consensus forecast, a sign that the US labor market is still robust. Fitch Ratings' decision to downgrade US debt was also likely a factor in bond movements, prompting some traders to reduce their positions in these fixed-income securities. As a result, this led to a rise in yields and a rise in the US currency.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.02
The US service sector continues to perform relatively well, while the US labor market is slowly starting to cool down. Job openings fell more than expected in June to 9.58 million from 9.61 million in May. Signs of weakening labor demand are likely to reinforce expectations that rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve are unlikely to be renewed in September. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike remaining is 82% at the September meeting and 67% at the November meeting. This is a negative factor for the dollar index, so the euro has a prospect of strengthening in the coming weeks.
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The Forecast – 2023.08.01
The inflation rate in the Eurozone decreased from 5.5% to 5.3% in annualized terms. Meanwhile, core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) showed resilience again and remained at 5.5% y/y. This is a hawkish signal for the ECB, as core consumer prices are a key factor in analyzing inflation figures. ECB President Christine Lagarde reiterated yesterday that the ECB could still raise rates in the future if needed, calling GDP data from Spain, France, and Germany "encouraging." This is a green flag for the Euro, as further policy tightening from the ECB will reduce the interest rate differential with the US Fed.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.31
A day after the ECB voted to raise interest rates by 25 basis points, representatives of the Governing Council are already talking about the September meeting. The governor of the Bank of Greece said he sees no possibility of another rate hike, but if the committee does vote in favor of an increase, it will be the last. Another ECB representative, the governor of the Bank of Lithuania, hinted that the ECB is close to or may have already peaked rates. At the same time, the governor of the Central Bank of Slovenia sees the possibility of another increase or pause. Thus, the hawkish notes that previously supported the Euro seem to be fading. Inflation data will be released today in the Eurozone, where a slight decline in inflation is expected, which will only increase the probability in favor of a pause at the September ECB meeting.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.28
The ECB raised the key interest rate by 25 bps to 4.25%. The accompanying monetary policy statement left the door open for further rate hikes. During the press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde was adamant about not announcing anything in advance for September, leaving the door open not only for a rate hike but also for a pause. Lagarde remained evasive when asked about the possibility of a hike in September. This is a dovish sign, given that the ECB president has previously been quite hawkish when pushing for future rate hikes.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.27
The US Fed expectedly raised the rate yesterday by 0.25% to 5.25%, leaving the door open for further hikes. The US Central Bank also signaled that it needs to see new signs of slowing price pressures in order to declare victory over inflation. The European Central Bank (ECB) meets today, where a 0.25% rate hike is also expected. But the focus is on the Central Bank's plans for September, and markets are divided on whether there will be another rate hike, or the ECB will hit the pause button.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.26
Today the US Federal Reserve will hold a meeting on monetary policy, where the future course of the US Central Bank will be determined. Investors are now mixed on the long-term outlook for the Central Bank's monetary policy. According to forecasts, the US Fed is expected to raise the rate by 0.25%. But this increase has already been factored into prices, so the focus will be on the FOMC statement, as well as Jerome Powell's comments at the press conference. The hawkish stance of the US Fed will increase the probability of another rate hike this fall, which will be a strengthening factor for the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.25
The latest Eurozone business activity data was disappointing. Thus, the manufacturing sector's business activity index fell from 43.4 to 43.7. In the service sector, the index fell from 52.0 to 51.5. This is a negative signal for the European currency because the worse the economy is performing, the less room the ECB has for further rate hikes. The ECB monetary policy meeting will take place this week, and economists believe that the ECB's tone may shift to a dovish direction.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.24
Until Wednesday, the volatility in the financial markets will be lower in anticipation of the US Fed meeting. The ECB meeting will also take place on Thursday. The scenario of a 0.25% rate hike in both cases is already factored into prices, so traders and investors will focus on the future plans of the US Fed and ECB. The hawkish bias of both banks will maintain parity in interest rates, which will not lead to significant price changes. But if the US Fed hints at the end of the tightening cycle, there are growth prospects for the euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.21
The dollar rose against a basket of currencies on Thursday after data showed that the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may continue raising interest rates if the economy remains strong. The US Labor Department said initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 9,000 to 228,000. Economists had forecast 242,000.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.20
The Eurozone's inflation data came out mixed yesterday. On the one hand, overall inflation fell from 6.1% to 5.5%. On the other hand, core inflation (excluding food and fuel prices) rose from 5.3% to 5.5%, all in annualized terms. Core inflation is the key indicator that the ECB targets. Such figures reinforce the expected 0.25% rate hike next week. But despite the rise in core inflation, some ECB officials believe that core prices have peaked.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.19
With almost 100% probability, the FOMC will resume the policy normalization cycle after a short pause and raise the rate by another 0.25% next week. But this policy adjustment is already fully in prices, so traders should focus primarily on forward guidance. Last month, the US central bank said it was ready to conduct an additional 50 basis points of tightening in the second half of 2023, but a sharp decline in price pressures is likely to change the Fed's stance to a softer one. If policymakers take a less hawkish stance or make it clear that the policy tightening campaign is over, the US dollar is likely to continue to fall, while the euro will continue to rise.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.18
The euro continues to strengthen on the back of the dollar's weakness and the hawkish stance of the ECB representatives. Bundesbank head Joachim Nagel said that he expects the ECB to raise the rate by 0.25% at the next meeting. Moreover, analysts at G-10 banks believe that the dollar will enter a multi-year downtrend, partly on the basis that the Fed's tightening cycle will turn into an easing cycle, and this will pull the dollar down, even if other central banks also cut rates.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.17
The FOMC meeting will be held on July 26, and the Fed is currently in silent mode, so the USD may face further selling pressure. Market participants seem to believe that the Fed will not raise rates after the July meeting, while the dollar is likely to be highly sensitive to weak US data. Market participants could take any signs of a slowdown in the US economy as a sign that the Fed may go for a rate cut sooner than expected, which could put additional pressure on the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.14
The minutes of the June ECB meeting emphasized its hawkish stance. The June ECB meeting was marked not only by another rate hike but also by the actual preliminary announcement of a rate hike in July by ECB President Christine Lagarde. The main reasons for maintaining a hawkish stance were the upward revision of the ECB's inflation forecast for 2024 and the still optimistic outlook for economic growth. The ECB concluded that the bank needs at least two consecutive interest rate hikes in June and July to achieve its inflation target.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.13
The US inflation slowed down sharply, which contributed to the fall of the dollar index to a 15-month low. Dollar weakness led most risk currencies such as the euro and pound to rally. The consumer price level fell from 4% to 3% (3.1% forecast) on an annualized basis. Core inflation (excludes food and energy prices) fell from 5.3% to 4.8% (forecast 5.0%). The probability of a rate hike at the September meeting of the US Federal Reserve fell to 14%. Investors expect the US Fed to end the tightening cycle after the July meeting.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.12
Inflation data for June will be released today in the United States. Inflation is expected to fall from 5.3% to 5.0% year-over-year. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) is also expected to fall from 4% to 3.1% year-over-year. But even if inflation falls, it won't be enough to prevent the Fed from raising rates this month, but it will be enough to prevent expectations from shifting further in a more hawkish direction. Given the recent dollar decline, investors expect a softer stance from the US Fed after the release amid the imminent end of the tightening cycle.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.11
The US dollar fell on Monday, extending last Friday's losses after softer-than-expected nonfarm payrolls data. Traders are now focusing on the US inflation data that will be released on Wednesday. This data will help to understand the US Federal Reserve's future actions and the US dollar's future trajectory. But even if inflation falls, it won't be enough to prevent the Fed from raising rates this month, but it will be enough to prevent expectations from shifting further in a more hawkish direction. Today's German inflation data could help strengthen the euro if the indicators point to resilience.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.10
Friday's Nonfarm report showed that the US labor market remains robust, but there are early signs of a slowdown. Over the past month, the US economy added 209,000 jobs, less than the consensus estimate of 224,000. This is also a slowdown from the previous month's reading, which was revised downward by 33,000 to 306,000. The unemployment rate fell from 3.7% to 3.6%. The report shows that the increase in jobs was accompanied by solid wage growth. Despite some signs of weakness, this data increases the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.07
The Nonfarm payroll data will be released today. Economists forecast that the US economy will add 200,000 jobs in June. The unemployment rate is expected to be 3.6% (now 3.7%), and average hourly earnings are expected to be up by 0.3%. Signs of continued strength in the labor market will strengthen the US Fed's stance on further policy tightening. For the US Fed to stop raising rates, the Central Bank first wants to see a decline in labor market activity and falling average wages. Therefore, strong labor market data will be positive for the dollar and negative for other risky assets like the euro and the pound.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.06
The FOMC minutes were relatively quiet. There were no surprises. At the June meeting, all Fed officials voted to maintain the restrictive monetary policy and expect further rate hikes, but at a slower pace. In fact, all this was voiced by the head of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, at the press conference after the last meeting. But this was enough for the dollar index to strengthen against the major basket of currencies.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.05
Policymakers from advanced economies continue to show a concerted bias towards further interest rate increases, with both the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank poised to raise interest rates later this month. Thus, the interest rate differential will not change. Fundamentally, this will benefit the dollar index as the overall US Fed rate (5.25%) is higher than the ECB rate now (4.0%).
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The Forecast – 2023.07.04
The US industrial production fell in June to levels last seen when the economy was still recovering from the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Manufacturing Business Activity Index fell from 46.9 to 46.0, the lowest reading since May 2020. For the eighth month in a row, the PMI is below the 50 level, indicating a contraction in manufacturing. But the odds of a US Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting have not changed much at 88%.
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The Forecast – 2023.07.03
The Eurozone inflation rate declined from 6.1% to 5.5% y/y (5.6% expected). Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) rose to 5.4% y/y from 5.3% (5.5% expected). A more detailed report showed that services inflation hit a new high. Core inflation is likely to continue falling as many price pressure indicators continue to decline from their peaks. But the ECB first needs to see a decline in services and food prices to think about ending the tightening cycle.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.30
Inflationary pressures are increasing again in Germany. The consumer price level in the country rose from 6.1% to 6.4% year-on-year. Core inflation was the main driver – excluding energy and food, increased by 0.3% m/m and returned to 5.8% y/y. Eurozone's inflation data will be released today. Overall inflation is expected to fall from 6.1% to 5.6% y/y, but core inflation is expected to rise from 5.3% to 5.5% y/y. With the ECB focusing most of its attention on core inflation, this will increase the likelihood of further rate hikes.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.29
The EUR/USD pair declined yesterday amid hawkish statements from US Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, who participated in a discussion with European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. Although both politicians made hawkish remarks, the dollar eventually prevailed. Both politicians hinted at further interest rate increases at the next meetings.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.28
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday that inflation is still too high and it is too early to stop raising rates. The hawkish comments of the ECB president at the Central Bank symposium in Sintra, as well as positive US data, put pressure on the dollar yesterday. Heads of other central banks are expected to speak today, including a speech by the head of the US Federal Reserve. Powell's hawkish rhetoric on further rate hikes may give confidence back to the dollar index.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.27
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame is bullish, but there are all preconditions for the reversal. The MACD indicator has become negative, and the trend structure on the low time frames is descending. Under such market conditions, buy trades are possible from the support level of 1.0845 or 1.0785, but only with an additional confirmation on the lower time frames, as the levels have already been tested. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0932 but with confirmation in the form of a reverse initiative.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.26
In Europe, the latest data on business activity was disappointing. The biggest drop in manufacturing activity was seen in Germany (from 43.2 to 41.0). The Eurozone's overall figure also showed contraction: activity in the manufacturing sector declined from 44.8 to 43.6, and in the services sector from 55.1 to 52.4. This is a signal for the ECB that high-interest rates are starting to slow down business activity seriously. With some Eurozone countries, including Germany, which is already in technical default territory, the ECB may end the tightening cycle sooner than previously planned.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.23
The head of the US Federal Reserve said in his speech to Congress that the Fed is switching to a more moderate pace of rate hikes. This is the reason there was a pause at the June meeting. The Central Bank is targeting further rate hikes in preparation for a slowing economy and worsening labor market conditions. According to the FedWatch Tool, the probability of a rate hike at the July meeting has increased to 77%. This hawkish bias increases government bond yields and therefore strengthens the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.22
Two German policymakers from the European Central Bank said Wednesday that eurozone inflation remains resilient, and a longer period of high-interest rates may be needed to contain it, partly because of the exceptionally strong labor market. Economists currently expect a 0.25 percent rate hike at the ECB's July meeting, and there is a 50 percent chance of another rate hike in September or October. The rate is expected to peak at 4.5%. Trading recommendations
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The Forecast – 2023.06.21
The head of Lithuania's Central Bank described the interest rate hike planned for July as "almost obvious," stressing that core inflation in the eurozone remains solid. After last week's upward revision to inflation forecasts, some ECB officials warned that rate hikes may have to be maintained beyond the July meeting. Economists believe the ECB will end its tightening cycle this fall.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.20
The ECB officials are unanimously discussing a rate increase at the July meeting. Yesterday, ECB representatives Lane and Kasimir pointed to the advisability of raising the rate in July by another 0.25% and in September to base their decisions on the new data on core inflation and the labor market. It should be noted that the probability of a rate hike by the Fed at the July meeting is 74%. The consensus so far is that both central banks plan to raise the rate next month. Thus, fundamentally, a wide price corridor will be formed on the EUR/USD currency pair, as there is no prevailing side right now.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.19
In the Eurozone, the inflation rate has not changed compared to the previous month. Consumer inflation remained at 6.1% y/y, while core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) remained at 5.3% y/y. ECB spokesman Francois Villeroy de Galo said yesterday that ECB rates are already in restrictive territory. That means the ECB is nearing the end of its tightening cycle. Most likely, the rate hike at the July or September meeting will be the last hike in this tightening cycle.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.16
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates for the eighth time in a row and signaled further policy tightening. The rate was raised by 0.25% from 3.75% to 4.00%. At the press conference, ECB head Christine Lagarde indicated that the ECB is leaving the door open for further hikes. Economists expect another ECB rate hike of 25 basis points in July or September. The interest rate differential between the US Fed and the ECB has narrowed, and this is a fundamental factor for EUR/USD quotes to rise.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.15
The US Federal Reserve expectedly left rates unchanged yesterday but predicted further rate hikes at the next meetings. The rate forecast for 2023 was raised to 5.6% (at least two more increases), and for 2024 the rate is expected to be 4.6%. The 2023 core inflation forecast was raised to 3.9%, and the unemployment forecast was lowered to 4.1%. As a result, the US Fed is taking a pause, but it is a more hawkish pause as the probability of a hike at the next meeting has risen from 25% to 72%.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.14
The US inflation slowed to more than a year's low, reinforcing expectations of a halt in the Fed's rate hike. There is a 93% chance that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged today. The US consumer prices fell from 5.5% to 5.3% year-over-year. Core inflation fell sharply from 4.9% to 4%. This was the eleventh consecutive month of decline in overall inflation and the lowest level since early 2021, but it is still double the Fed's stated target of 2%.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.13
The US inflation data for May will be released today. Inflationary pressures are expected to ease. Consumer prices are projected to fall from 4.9% to 4.1% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) is expected to fall from 5.5% to 5.3% year-over-year. If the actual data match the forecast, it will increase the likelihood of a pause by the Fed at tomorrow's meeting. This will be positive for the European currency as the interest rate differential between the US Fed and the ECB will start to decline.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.12
The trend on the EUR/USD currency pair on the hourly time frame has changed to bullish. The price is correcting to the Fibonacci buying zone. The MACD indicator is in the negative zone, but sellers' pressure is weak. Under such market conditions, buy trades can be considered from the support level of 1.0718, but only with additional confirmation on the lower time frames. Sell deals can be considered from the resistance level of 1.0762 or 1.0800 but with confirmation in the form of a false breakout and a change of the structure on the lower time frames.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.09
Initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly rose from 233,000 to 261,000, the biggest jump since October 2021, indicating signs of a cooling in the labor market. The likelihood of a pause from the US Federal Reserve at the June meeting rose to 73%. The dollar index began to sell off, giving a boost to risky assets such as the euro and pound. According to Italian Central Bank Governor Mario Draghi, inflation in the Eurozone has been more resilient than initially anticipated by central banks. It will require a cautious continuation of monetary policy tightening through both further interest rate increases and an increase in the timing of their reversal.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.08
From a fundamental point of view, the situation on the EUR/USD currency pair remains the same. ECB officials are unanimously saying that the current policy tightening is not enough and it is necessary to raise rates further. The probability of a rate hike at the upcoming ECB meeting is 100%, and more than 80% at the July meeting. In the medium term, there are now conditions for the euro to grow.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.07
The European currency has a good opportunity to get stronger against the USD. The US Federal Reserve is 80% sure not to raise rates this month and more than 50% sure not to do so in July. At the same time, the ECB is planning at least two more rate hikes of 0.25% in June and July. The interest rate differential between the ECB and the US Fed will narrow by 0.25%-0.5%. In the medium term, this situation will fundamentally contribute to the growth of the euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.06
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said yesterday that inflationary pressures remain strong and the interest rate will rise further. Lagarde reiterated that there is no clear evidence that core inflation has peaked. Although there was a second slowdown in core inflation in May, most investors and analysts are predicting two more rate hikes from the ECB at 0.25% for each meeting.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.05
The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report showed that the US economy added 339,000 jobs in May (forecast 190K, previous 294K). The unemployment rate rose to 3.7% (forecast 3.5%, previous 3.4%). Year-on-year wage growth slowed to 4.3%. Labor market data came out mixed, with signs of weakness. For the US Fed, this is a sign that interest rates are starting to have a negative impact on the labor market. The probability of a pause in June rose to 75% after the news was released.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.02
The latest Eurozone inflation data showed that consumer prices declined from 7.0% to 6.1% year-over-year. Meanwhile, the core CPI (which excludes food and energy prices) fell to 5.3% y/y from 5.6%. All data came out better than expected. But ECB head Christine Lagarde said yesterday that the ECB has "no clear evidence that core inflation has peaked" and the bank does not intend to stop yet. Vice-Chairman Luis de Guindos does not yet see a victory over inflation either. The ECB is expected to raise the rate two more times by 0.25% at each of its meetings before the end of the summer. This could provide momentum for the euro as the rate differential with the US Fed narrows.
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The Forecast – 2023.06.01
Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker and Federal Reserve Governor and Vice Chair nominee Philip Jefferson said Wednesday that the US Central Bank may suspend interest rate hikes at its June meeting. They warned, however, that the pause would not mean that the Fed's rate-raising cycle has come to an end. In other words, the Fed could pause until July to estimate the impact of interest rates on the economy. And there could be another hike in July. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 66% chance of a pause in June. But that could change after Friday's US labor market data.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.31
The pace of bank lending growth in the Eurozone slowed again in April, confirming the need for a cautious interest rate hike in the coming months. Weak growth and rising borrowing costs are already reducing the demand for credit. Corporate credit growth in the currency bloc of 20 countries slowed to 4.6% in April from 5.2% a month earlier, while credit growth to households fell to 2.5% from 2.9%. Analysts believe the weak monetary data for April adds to the sluggish economic outlook for the remainder of 2023 and argues for a less tight stance at upcoming European Central Bank meetings. This is a negative factor for the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.30
After the US banking sector crash in March, there were expectations that credit conditions would tighten and the economy would deteriorate. In that context, there were also expectations that the Federal Reserve would not raise rates in June and that rates had peaked, and the Сentral Bank would have to cut interest rates by the end of 2023. In May, however, there was an adjustment in expectations. Current prices suggest about a 60% probability that rates will be raised in June and a 50% probability that they will be raised in July. Expectations of a rate cut in 2023 have gradually disappeared. Along with the reduced risk of US default, this situation will generally lead to an even greater decline in the euro in the short term.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.29
Friday's data showed that US consumer spending rose more than expected in April, improving the economy's growth prospects in the second quarter of 2023. At the same time, PCE price inflation accelerated again. This indicator is on the US Federal Reserve's list of monitored inflation indicators. Against this backdrop, the probability of a 0.25% rate hike at the June meeting rose from 50% to 64.2%. This situation will contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.26
The German economy entered a technical recession in the first quarter of this year. Data from the German statistical office on Thursday showed a downward revision of GDP (gross domestic product) from 0 to 0.3%. Germany recorded a 0.5% contraction in the last quarter of 2022. Two consecutive quarters of negative growth define a technical recession. Despite this, ECB policymakers are still inclined to keep raising interest rates until September.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.25
The FOMC protocol showed that the officials are divided in their support for further rate hikes. The door to further rate hikes remains open, and the decision will depend on new data coming in. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 68.7% probability that the Central Bank will pause its aggressive rate hike campaign at the June 13-14 meeting. Before the release of the FOMC minutes, the probability was around 80%. The increase in the probability of a rate hike strengthens the dollar index.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.24
Due to output contraction, the Eurozone business activity index (PMI) declined in May. The composite PMI fell from 54.1 to 53.3, the first decline since last October. The first decline in the index in more than six months indicates a weakening of the manufacturing sector. The manufacturing business activity index indicated an even larger decline from 48.5 to 46.3. The report also showed that the divergence between services and manufacturing is growing, and services inflation is accelerating again. And this could be a problem for the European Central Bank.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.23
San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said Monday that it is too early to tell if the US central bank will raise interest rates at its June 13-14 meeting. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 75% chance that the US Fed will keep rates unchanged next month. But uncertainty remains. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard anticipates two more rate hikes this year, while his counterpart at the Minneapolis Fed, Neal Kashkari, expressed support for a pause in June.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.22
The ECB is approaching the finish line of its current tightening cycle, having increased its cost of borrowing by 375 basis points since last July. But the European Central Bank can continue to raise rates to restrictive levels without worrying about financial stability. This is the opinion of Isabelle Schnabel, a representative of the ECB's executive board. At the moment, money markets estimate an almost 100% chance of another 0.25% rate hike next month and expect the deposit rate to exceed 4% by September. The first-rate cut of 25 basis points is not expected until next spring.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.19
In the US, initial jobless claims of 242,000 were below expectations and lower than the previous week, a sign of resilience in the labor market. Existing home sales fell by 3.4% in April from the previous month, much more than expected. About 66% of futures traders expect the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes at its June meeting. However, not everyone agrees with the pause. Dallas Federal Reserve President Laurie Logan said Thursday that current economic data do not justify a pause. Another important factor is the debt ceiling, which Congress must raise in the next couple of weeks if the US is to avoid the possibility of default. Although lawmakers and President Joe Biden have said that the US will not default, the issue is still being negotiated.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.18
The latest economic data showed that the consumer price level in the Eurozone remained unchanged. Inflation in the region remained at 7.0% in annual terms. Core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) remained at 5.6%. Sustained inflationary pressures remain above the ECB's target level, so Europe's central bank has no choice but to raise rates further and conduct quantitative tightening.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.17
The Eurozone consumer price data will be released today. The main focus of investors' attention should be on the core inflation rate, which the European Central Bank monitors to adjust monetary policy tightening. Core inflation is expected to remain at 5.6% on an annualized basis, increasing the likelihood of further rate hikes by the ECB. Economists are currently forecasting at least two more ECB interest rate hikes of 0.25% at the next two meetings in June and July.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.16
In its fight against inflation, the ECB raised rates by a combined 375 basis points from July 2022. With core inflation in the Eurozone remaining resilient, there is no doubt that the ECB will continue to tighten policy. The ECB is still expected to raise the rate by a combined 50 basis points in two steps, 0.25% each in June and July. Also, last week, the ECB indicated that a reduction in its government debt portfolio is expected to raise 10-year bond yields by 55 basis points between 2022 and 2025. Rising government bond yields tend to accompany a rise in the local currency, in this case, the euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.15
The latest economic data showed that the annualized inflation rate in France increased from 5.7% to 5.9%. In Spain, inflation jumped from 3.3% to 4.1%. And in Germany, inflation fell from 7.4% to 7.2% y/y. This week, consumer price data will be released by Italy, after which the overall figure for the Eurozone will be announced. Core consumer prices (which exclude food and energy prices) are expected to remain at 5.6%. This figure will encourage further rate hikes by the ECB.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.12
The April US factory inflation (PPI) rose by 0.2%, with the core PPI annualized down from 3.4% to 3.2%. The data came out mixed, but overall, the trend of declining inflationary pressures for manufacturers continues. Initial jobless claims in the US increased by 22,000 in the last week to 264,000, an 18-month high and indicating a crack in the labor market. All of this data increases the likelihood of a Fed pause in June.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.11
The US Consumer Price Index decreased slightly from 5.6% to 5.5% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) dipped below 5% and is now at 4.9% annualized. The downward inflation momentum continues, increasing the likelihood of a pause from the Fed in June. The CME FedWatch Tool shows a 96% chance of such a scenario. This is a negative signal for the dollar index as the ECB intends to raise rates further.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.10
Last week the Eurozone Central Bank raised the deposit rate by a quarter point to 3.25%, and ECB President Christine Lagarde signaled that more hikes are likely. After that, four more ECB officials, the heads of the central banks of Germany, the Netherlands, France, and Latvia, confirmed the comment that rates should continue to be raised as core inflation in the Eurozone remains high. Economists believe the ECB will raise the rate two more times before hitting the pause button in the fall. Reducing the interest rate differential between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve will help the euro strengthen against the dollar in the medium term.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.09
European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane said yesterday that inflation in the Eurozone will slow down sharply this year, but the pace of price growth is still high, including for basic goods and services. Lane believes that sharp declines in energy prices and the removal of bottlenecks should accelerate disinflation, while corporate profit margins, a key driver of price growth last year, should also fall. The ECB predicts that inflation will fall below 3% by the fourth quarter of 2023. Some policymakers have doubted this forecast and argue that there is a risk that high inflation could remain sustained longer.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.08
Friday's data showed that the US labor market remains strong. The economy added 253,000 jobs (forecast +181,000). The unemployment rate dropped from 3.5% to 3.4%. The unexpected increase in US hiring and payrolls last month raises the possibility that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates high longer and possibly keep the possibility of an 11th straight hike in June.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.05
The European Central Bank has raised the interest rate by 0.25%. The ECB has thus slowed the pace of rate hikes, but unlike the Fed, it is not going to stop and intends to continue to tighten monetary policy. The ECB pointed out that the rate hikes will lead to a sharp tightening of monetary conditions, but the strength of the transfer to the real economy remains uncertain. The European currency has reacted with weakness as the ECB's "aggression" seems to be cooling down, despite the Eurozone's core inflation of 5.6% and overall inflation of 7%.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.04
The Federal Reserve expectedly raised its interest rate by 0.25% on Wednesday and signaled a possible pause in June, stressing that incoming data will be crucial for monetary policy decisions. The ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting today. A 0.25% rate hike is also forecast, but there may be surprises in the form of a 0.5% move as core inflation in the Eurozone remains well above the ECB's target and shows little sign of slowing. Barclays currency strategists believe that even a slowdown in the ECB's rate hike cycle will not be an obstacle to further euro growth.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.03
Inflation in the Eurozone has calmed down a bit but remains high. The annualized consumer price index rose from 6.9% to 7.0%. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) fell from 5.7% to 5.6%. The ECB is likely to be ready to raise rates further after the May meeting. Markets are predicting a +25bp rate hike on Thursday as a compromise decision, but there is a possibility that the ECB could do +50bp to convince everyone of its resolve to fight inflation.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.02
Inflation data will be released in the Eurozone today. Investors' main focus will be on core inflation data, which excludes food and energy prices. If core inflation shows signs of slowing, it will make it even more likely that the ECB will raise interest rates by 0.25% on Thursday. But if core inflation stays the same or rises, it will increase the probability of a 0.5% rate hike. In that case, the interest rate differential between the US Fed and the ECB will narrow, which will have an impact on the euro's strength.
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The Forecast – 2023.05.01
Many important statistics were released on Friday concerning European countries. In Germany, the inflation rate dropped from 7.4% to 7.2%, and last quarter's GDP declined by 0.1%. In France, consumer prices rose from 5.7% to 5.9% year-over-year in April. France's GDP added 0.2% for the quarter. The total GDP for the Eurozone showed a decline of 0.1%. The slowdown in Europe's economy will likely force ECB policymakers to lower the pace of rate hikes to 0.25%. But a lot will also depend on the Eurozone core inflation data released tomorrow. Today is a bank holiday in the Eurozone.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.28
The US economic growth slowed more than expected in the first quarter. GDP data for the quarter showed growth of 1.1% with a forecast of 2.0%. The slowdown in GDP growth mainly reflected weak inventory investment. A number of European countries, including Germany, will release their GDP data today. Also, Germany will release inflation data, and the US will release the PCE Price report, which is on the US Federal Reserve's list of monitored inflation indicators. Inflationary pressures in Germany are expected to begin to ease, and GDP is expected to rise slightly.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.27
The US will publish the quarterly GDP report today, as well as weekly labor market data. GDP is expected to show growth of 2% for the quarter, while jobless claims are expected to remain flat. The way to interpret this data is that if GDP is better than expected and jobless claims are not increasing, it is a sign of a solid economy, which will act as a factor for the dollar to strengthen in a period of rising rates. GDP growth, along with rising jobless claims, would be a mixed report. If GDP and labor market data come out worse than forecast, it could cause the dollar to sell off amid an increased likelihood of a recession scenario.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.26
In the US, a Conference Board survey showed that consumer confidence fell to a nine-month low. The US Federal Reserve Richmond's Manufacturing Index also fell to minus 10 in April, the fourth consecutive month of decline. The weak consumer confidence report and lower manufacturing data increased the dollar's appeal as a safe haven. The euro temporarily lost momentum. ECB board spokeswoman Isabel Schnabel said a 50 basis point rate hike is not out of the question and will depend on inflation data due out two days before the May meeting.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.25
The IFO Business Climate Index showed that business sentiment in Germany had improved slightly. The index rose to 93.6 points in April from 93.2 points in March. This was due to improved company expectations. German business worries are easing, but the economy still lacks momentum. But overall, the eurozone's largest economy has avoided recession this winter. Now the main question is how long business activity will show positive momentum with rising interest rates.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.24
On Friday in Europe, statistical data was published on business activity in the manufacturing and services sectors. Data came out mixed. The services sector showed strong growth in Germany, France, Spain, and the Eurozone, but manufacturing activity fell in almost the whole region. This is the first sign of the pressure of high-interest rates, which makes it more likely that the ECB will cut the pace of rate hikes to 0.25%, with a 90% chance that the US Federal Reserve will also raise interest rates by 0.25% at its next meeting. The interest rate differential between the ECB and the US Fed will remain the same. But with the ECB not going to stop in May, the fundamental picture is slightly in favor of a stronger European currency in the medium term.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.21
The March minutes of the ECB monetary policy meeting indicated a divergence in policymakers' views. A 50 basis point rate hike is still under consideration for next month, but the split among policymakers is in favor of a 25 basis point compromise. But it should be noted that these minutes were prepared before the banking turmoil and the ECB's rejection of forward guidance. Given the bank and market turmoil, a new set of macroeconomic forecasts for inflation, a 50 bps rate hike scenario is the most likely at the moment.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.20
Inflation in the Eurozone remained unchanged compared to the previous month. The Consumer Price Index was 6.9% on an annualized basis, while the Core Inflation Indicator remained at 5.7%. Such data increases the likelihood of a further 0.5% rate hike at the next ECB meeting. Reducing the interest rate differential between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve will act as a growth factor for the euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.19
The President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Raphael Bostic, stated that he is in favor of another interest rate hike and then keeping it above 5% for a while in order to curb inflation. Fed officials are expected to raise rates by 25 basis points from the current 5.00% to 5.25% at a meeting on 2-3 May. Eurozone's inflation data will be released today. The focus will be on the core value. If core inflation in the Eurozone shows signs of rising again, this will increase the likelihood of a 0.5% rate hike at the next ECB meeting. A reduction in the interest rate differential between the ECB and the US Fed is likely to lead to a strengthening of the Euro in the medium term.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.18
The statistical data on the economic sentiment index in Germany and Europe will be published today. The Index is expected to rise from 13.0 to 15.5 in Germany and rise from 10.0 to 12.2 in the Eurozone. In the Eurozone, inflationary pressures across countries are declining, and economic indicators are rising. The fundamental picture is in favor of a 0.5% rate hike at the May ECB meeting.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.17
The latest data for European countries showed a decline in inflationary pressures in the region. Inflation in France fell from 6.3% to 5.7% y/y. In Germany, the inflation rate fell from 8.7% to 7.4%, and in Spain, consumer prices showed a decline from 6.0% to 3.1% y/y. Inflation data for Italy and the Eurozone will be released this week. Overall inflation is expected to fall further, but the main focus will be on core inflation data (excluding food and energy prices), which still shows no signs of slowing down. If core inflation does not start to decline, the ECB may stay on an aggressive path of rate hikes.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.14
ECB Governing Council representative Boštjan Vasle, who heads the Central Bank of Slovenia, said yesterday that the ECB should continue to raise rates, given the persistence of core inflation in the eurozone. The politician added that the labor market and wage developments are the most important factors in assessing inflation, and they will have the final say on whether to opt for a 0.25% or 0.5% increase at the May meeting. The European currency continues to strengthen on the back of the dollar index weakness.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.13
The minutes of the Fed's March meeting showed that Fed policymakers were close to halting rate hikes last month as the banking crisis erupted. Still, high inflation and strong economic growth reversed their decision in favor of continuing monetary tightening. The Fed has kept its base rate forecast unchanged since December, predicting a final rate of 5.1% in 2023, which implies at least one more increase to bring monetary policy into restrictive territory.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.12
The US inflation data will be released today, followed by the minutes of the Fed's March monetary policy meeting at the end of the day. Analysts expect the annualized consumer price level to fall from 6.0% to 5.2%, focusing on core inflation, excluding food and energy prices. Core inflation is forecast to rise by 0.4%. At the end of the trading day, the minutes of the March Fed meeting will be published. These two reports will provide clues as to the US Federal Reserve's future policy. A rise in core inflation, along with hawkish FOMC minutes, could add confidence to the dollar as it raises the likelihood of another 0.25% interest rate hike at the May 3 meeting. Conversely, lower inflation pressures, along with a non-hawkish FOMC protocol, could cause a sell-off in the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.11
The odds of a 0.25% Fed interest rate hike at the May meeting are increasing daily. Back on Friday, before the Nonfarm report, this probability was 60%. After the strong labor report, the probability increased to 70%. On Monday, the probability reached 80% at the end of the trading day. The re-evaluation came as Treasury yields rose to their highest level in the last days and also as the dollar index rallied.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.10
Friday's labor market data showed that the US nonfarm payrolls increased by 236,000 in March, in line with the forecast of 239,000. The unemployment rate fell to 3.5% from 3.6% in February. Average hourly earnings, which reflect wage inflation, rose by 0.3% in March after rising 0.2% in February. The US dollar strengthened on Friday on the back of this data. Analysts believe that the current economic data will support another 0.25% interest rate hike (70% probability) by the Fed at the May meeting.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.07
Many countries are celebrating the Good Friday holiday today, and almost all global financial exchanges will be closed. All except the US stock exchange, which will work part-time. However, an important monthly labor market report will be published today – Nonfarm Payrolls. Analysts forecast that the US economy will add 238,000 jobs in March after an increase of 311,000 in February. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at a low of 3.6%. With low liquidity due to the closure of other financial exchanges in Asia and Europe, this report may cause a significant spike in volatility.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.06
The US dollar strengthened yesterday as investors are once again counting on the American currency as a safe haven asset. A series of weak economic data heightened fears that interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could lead to a recession in the US economy. The ADP National Employment report showed that US private employers hired far fewer workers than expected in March, adding to signs of a cooling labor market after Tuesday's weak jobs data. Now the focus will be on the monthly nonfarm payroll data, which will be released Friday.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.05
The US dollar fell to a two-month low on Tuesday as further weak economic data bolstered investors' bets that the Federal Reserve is about to end its tightening cycle, even as other central banks continue to raise interest rates. The European currency hit a 2-month high, and with the ECB poised to raise rates at its next meeting, the euro has all the prerequisites for further strength.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.04
OPEC countries voluntarily decided to reduce oil production by 1.16 million barrels per day. The reaction to oil prices was immediate – the quotes opened with a more than 5% price gap. Until Sunday, many analysts were inclined to cut the Fed funds rate by the end of the year. But this OPEC decision could turn everything upside down. Analysts are trying to predict what the Federal Reserve will do in terms of raising rates to counter the new inflationary pressures that will almost inevitably come back due to rising black gold prices.
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The Forecast – 2023.04.03
For the last month, the inflation rate in the Eurozone declined from 8.5% to 6.9% on an annualized basis. But the core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) remains steady. Last month's increase was 0.1%, annualized at 5.6% to 5.7%, which is a new record. After the published data, ECB head Christine Lagarde pointed out that core inflation remains too high, but the economy is resilient, the financial system is strong, and the recent banking stress will not hinder the fight against inflation. Thus, analysts are betting on another 0.5% rate hike at the May meeting of Europe's Central Bank.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.31
Inflation in European countries is beginning to decline. In Spain, the consumer price index fell sharply from 6% to 3.3% year-over-year. In Germany, inflation fell from 9.2% to 8.3% y/y. Today, inflation data will be released by France (forecast 6.3% to 5.5% y/y) and Italy (forecast 9.1% to 8.2% y/y), and the total figure for the Eurozone will be published afterward. Analysts forecast a decline in consumer prices in Europe from 8.5% to 7.1%, but the main focus will be on core inflation data (excluding food and energy prices). A decline in core inflation may temper the ECB's aggressive stance. For now, the ECB plans to raise interest rates by 0.5% in May, but lower inflationary pressures in March and April may force ECB officials to lower the rate hike to 0.25%.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.30
The easing of bank fears has caused markets to overestimate the potential for further Federal Reserve policy tightening. The Fed will make interest-rate decisions from meeting to meeting, taking into account current financial conditions, Fed Vice Chairman for Supervision Michael Barr said on the second day of a congressional hearing. At this point, markets are estimating a 39% chance of another 0.25% Fed rate hike in May, with two rate cuts by the end of the year.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.29
The euro rose to a five-day high against the US dollar as EU government bond yields rose on Tuesday. Turbulence in the banking sector has altered market expectations for a likely interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve, and a pause is now expected in May. Given persistent inflationary pressures in the Eurozone, the ECB intends to raise interest rates aggressively. This will lead to a narrowing of the rate differential between the Fed and ECB, which will strengthen the euro in the medium term.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.28
In Germany, the Ifo Business Activity Index has increased for the sixth month in a row. Last month the index rose from 91.1 to 93.3. Lower wholesale gas prices and the opening of the Chinese economy boosted economic confidence. The component of current estimates and expectations has increased significantly. But it should be noted that the Ifo index can react with a delay of one to two months, so there is a high probability that the risk of a banking crisis as well as the current transportation worker strikes, have not yet been accounted for.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.27
While the US banking crisis has limited the Fed's ability to stay on its aggressive rate path, expectations have now shifted to a pause in the rate cycle at the May meeting. With the US Fed about to end its monetary tightening cycle, the US dollar will likely remain in the way of depreciation. Many investors are wary of other unpleasant surprises as the Federal Reserve's series of aggressive interest rate hikes over the past year has yet to affect the economy fully. For its part, the ECB intends to continue to aggressively raise interest rates, as the current level of borrowing does not meet the level for lower inflation. Such a policy of the ECB will strengthen the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.24
According to an economic model based on unemployment and consumer price inflation, the Fed's policy remains moderately tight after Wednesday's rate hike. Fed Funds rate futures now suggest mixed expectations for the next FOMC meeting on May 3. They imply the likelihood of either a pause in the rate hike or an increase of another 0.25%. At the same time, ECB spokesman Holtzman said yesterday that the ECB has more to do in May regarding interest rates. Therefore, the interest rate differential between the US Fed and the ECB might be reduced in May, which would further strengthen the euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.23
On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate by 0.25% to 5% and maintained its forecast for another increase this year. Asset reduction in Treasury securities will continue (quantitative tightening - QT). Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell firmly rejected market rumors of a rate cut later this year, even as the banking sector tightens lending, but assured that everything is under the Fed's control. The dollar index collapsed sharply after the meeting, pushing risk assets higher. Which means the markets did not believe Powell's words.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.22
Yesterday's rally in shares of First Republic Bank signaled an easing of fears about a further downturn in the banking sector. This happened just a day before the US Federal Reserve's meeting on monetary policy and interest rate issues. So the best-case scenario today would be a 0.25% rate hike. But much more important will be what the head of the US Fed will say at the press conference. If Powell's speech is dovish and hints at an end to the cycle soon, it will cause the dollar index to fall and risky assets, such as the euro and the pound, to rise. But if Powell hints that the Fed will continue to tighten policy at subsequent meetings, it could cause a new panic rush, which will force investors to buy dollars again.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.21
The important monetary policy meeting of the US Federal Reserve will take place tomorrow. Analysts' opinions differ. Some strategists believe that the US Fed will raise the rate by 0.25% but will announce the end of the tightening cycle. Another part of analysts is inclined to believe that the US Fed will end the tightening cycle as early as tomorrow without a rate hike, as the Fed injected $4.4 trillion into the Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) at the end of last week. Many analysts see this as hidden "quantitative easing" (QE). In any scenario, this is more dovish than the US Federal Reserve was planning a 0.5% rate hike two weeks ago with continued tightening. Any hints of an end to the tightening cycle would be negative for the dollar and positive for the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.20
Friday's Eurozone inflation report showed that inflationary pressures remain in the region. The annualized consumer price index fell just 0.1%, from 8.6% to 8.5%. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) remained at the same level as last month's 5.6%. Austrian central bank governor Robert Holzmann said Saturday that inflation in the Eurozone is harder to manage than expected, and the European Central Bank may have to raise interest rates further, possibly above 4%.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.17
The ECB raised its interest rate by 50 bps to 3.5% and will start cutting its bonds portfolio by 15 billion euros a month. However, the bank excluded any mention of further interest rate hikes from its statement, a significant change from its previous hawkish announcement. That came in a week when global financial markets were rocked by the collapse of three mid-sized US banks and concerns about the viability of Swiss bank Credit Suisse. Credit Suisse overnight received a $54 billion bailout and a vote of confidence from the Swiss National Bank. The statement also said that the ECB's governing council is closely monitoring current market tensions and is ready to respond as needed to maintain price stability and financial stability.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.16
Germany's IfW economic institute said Wednesday it does not expect a strong economic recovery in 2023 because consumers' purchasing power continues to decline as a result of persistently high inflation. The researchers raised their 2023 GDP growth forecast from 0.3% to 0.5%. The German government predicts GDP growth of 0.2%. For 2024, the institute raised its growth forecast from 1.3% to 1.4%. According to the report, consumer prices will reach 5.4% this year and fall to 2.1% in 2024. The ECB will hold monetary policy meetings today. Reuters reported yesterday that the European Central Bank intends to stick with its plans to raise its key rate by 50 basis points.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.15
Inflationary pressures are easing in the United States. The latest data showed that year-over-year consumer prices fell from 6.4% to 6.0%. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) declined from 5.6% to 5.5%. The next step is up to the US Fed Banks' opinions on the Fed's next move are divided: some think the Fed will cut rates as early as March. Others believe that the rate will be raised by 0.25% on March 21-22. The market has calmed down a bit and is looking forward to a 25 bps rate hike (69% chance) than staying unchanged (31%) and another 25 bps up in May. But banks have been predicting rate cuts since the summer.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.14
Amid the banking crisis in the US and Europe, fund futures traders now believe the Fed is likely to leave rates unchanged at its March 21-22 meeting or raise rates by 25 basis points, a sharp change from last week following Powell's comments before congressional committees. Goldman Sachs analysts no longer expect the Fed to raise rates at next week's meeting, this despite the fact that Goldman Sachs has always been hawkish in its forecasts. This is a negative signal for the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.13
The latest inflation data from Germany showed a figure of 8.7%, which underlines the persistent inflationary pressure. Since Germany is the largest economy in the Eurozone, the inflation data serves as an indicator for the whole region, reinforcing the hawkish sentiment of the European Central Bank (ECB). The US Labor Department reported Friday that Nonfarm payrolls rose by 311,000, well above the consensus forecast of 205,000 but below the revised 507,000 in January. While the core figure was above forecasts, key survey elements indicated a slight weakening in the labor market. This gave confidence to the European currency, as a "cooling off" of the labor market is a sign that the rate hike cycle is already close.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.10
The monthly Nonfarm Payrolls report will be released in the US today. The US economy is expected to grow by 200,000 jobs last month, down significantly from 517,000 in January. The unemployment rate is forecast at 3.4%. Yesterday's weekly labor market data showed that US employers announced 77,770 job cuts in February, down 24% from the 102,943 cuts announced in January. This points to a resilient labor market. Therefore, strong data today could give even more confidence to the dollar index. On the other hand, if the NFP data is worse than expected and there are signs that the labor market is starting to cool, it will give confidence to major currencies such as the euro and the pound.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.09
Industrial production in Germany recovered sharply in January, rising by 3.5%. Activity in the construction sector rose by almost 13%. But despite the positive data, the German industry is still nearly 5% below pre-pandemic levels. Nevertheless, lower wholesale energy prices and the opening of China could give the German industry a tailwind. On the other hand, a shortage of skilled workers, high-interest rates, and high levels of uncertainty could undermine investment activity. This is even though interest rate hikes by the ECB will continue for at least three more meetings.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.08
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's testimony has certainly taken on a more hawkish tone compared to his last comments in February. Powell's words now: "Because recent economic data have been stronger than expected, it suggests that the ultimate level of interest rates is likely to be higher than previously thought". The probability of a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the March 21-22 Fed meeting jumped to nearly 70% from 24% the day before. In December, the average forecast of Fed officials assumed a target federal funds rate of 5.1%. Still, yesterday's message from Powell indicates that markets estimate the federal funds rate at 5.4% by the end of the year. That means rates will rise another 100 bps. This hawkish stance has led to a sharp increase in government bond yields and a rise in the dollar index against major currencies.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.07
Austrian Central Bank Governor Robert Holzmann, perhaps the most hawkish politician, shook up the Eurobond markets yesterday by suggesting that a 0.5% ECB rate hike next week would be just the first of four 50 basis point steps. This followed remarks by Belgian counterpart Pierre Wunsch on Friday that investors are betting on an ECB rate peak of 4%, which is still 150 basis points or 1.5% away. This hawkish bias by the ECB could help strengthen the European currency in the medium term, as the interest rate differential between the ECB and the US Federal Reserve will decrease.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.06
There will be many important economic events this week. Before Friday's jobs report, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will appear before Congress to present the Central Bank's semi-annual monetary policy report. He will testify before the Senate on Tuesday and the House of Representatives on Wednesday. His comments will be scrutinized, whether a larger rate hike is being considered this month after recent data pointing to continued inflation in the US (PCE and PPI indices). If there is no hint of a tightening, it will be good news for the European currency amid the ECB's hawkish mood for the coming two meetings.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.03
The latest data showed that inflationary pressures remain in the Eurozone. Although the annualized consumer price index fell from 8.6% to 8.5%, core inflation (excluding food and energy prices) unexpectedly rose from 5.3% to 5.6%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rose from 6.6% to 6.7%. Such data support the idea that without lower energy prices, inflation remains tight, which will reinforce the hawkish rhetoric of ECB policymakers. Core inflation data is likely to drive ECB decisions, with ECB head Christine Lagarde saying that the need for higher rates remains.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.02
A 0.5% rate hike is almost guaranteed at the ECB's March meeting, and investors are focused on how the ECB will further shape monetary policy. This week's negative inflation data from France, Spain, and Germany have prompted markets to assess a longer cycle of tightening monetary policy that will see the deposit rate peak at 4%. Bank of France Governor François Villeroy de Galhau said Wednesday in Paris that the final rate should be reached no later than September. Eurostat will publish Eurozone inflation data today. Analysts forecast that overall inflation will fall from 8.6% to 8.3%, while core inflation will remain at an annualized rate of 5.3%.
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The Forecast – 2023.03.01
Important data on manufacturing activity will be released today in Europe and the US. The European PMI is expected to continue recovering but remain in restrictive territory below the 50 mark. With inflation remaining high across Europe, a rise in business activity will only add to the ECB's confidence to raise interest rates. The ECB will likely raise rates by 0.5% not only in March but also in May.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.28
Comments from US Federal Reserve officials raised concerns in the markets that interest rate cuts in the world's largest economy remain a distant prospect and that interest rates are likely to rise further. Fed funds futures show traders expect rates to peak at 5.4% by September. The interest rate differential between the US Fed and the ECB will put pressure on the European currency in the medium term.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.27
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, rose by +0.6% month-over-month in January, higher than the +0.4% expected. Friday's PCE data showed that the fight against inflation is not over and that the final interest rate looks set to reach 5.39-5.5% in the summer of 2023. This suggests three additional 25 basis point hikes. A higher peak in borrowing costs supports Treasury bond yields, which in turn drives the dollar index higher. This fundamental picture puts downward pressure on EUR/USD quotes, and the current trend may continue at least until mid-spring.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.24
Yesterday the Eurozone inflation data for January was released: annual inflation decreased from 9.2% to 8.6%, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, rose slightly, from 5.2% to 5.3% year-on-year. The report turned out to be mixed, as on the one hand, inflationary pressures became lower, while on the other hand, core inflation is still rising. The ECB will stay on the path of rate hikes at least until May, and after that, everything will depend on new data as well as geopolitics.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.23
The US dollar was again a growth driver yesterday. The January FOMC minutes did not contain any new hawkish statements. Still, they reinforced recent projections by FOMC officials that there is more work to be done to tighten monetary policy to get inflation back to the 2% target. According to the final minutes of the meeting, most FOMC participants supported a reduction in the pace of interest rate hikes, although some officials advocated more aggressive moves. Inflation risks are still skewed upward, and restoring price stability will take some time. Immediately after the release of the minutes, bond yields rose sharply, raising the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.22
The European trading session on Tuesday started positively. The latest Eurozone PMI data exceeded analysts' expectations, with the service sector business activity index back above the 50 mark, indicating a recovery. Although the manufacturing numbers were down slightly, the overall market reaction in terms of the region's resilience was positive. The increase surprised many analysts, given the winter months, which traditionally have a negative impact on statistics. But the US session was behind the dollar as business activity in the US manufacturing sector moved out of the contractionary territory, reducing the risk of a hard landing while increasing the possibility that the Fed could tighten monetary policy further.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.21
The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank reiterated their commitment to curbing inflation through additional rate hikes. On these expectations, the EUR/USD quotes have no clear dynamics, and this situation will persist at least until Wednesday, when the minutes of the January FOMC meeting will be published. Yesterday the latest data showed that consumer sentiment in the Eurozone increased to the highest level in a year, which is a sign of sustainability and a growing hope that the region can avoid recession this year. Investors should pay attention to the ZEW sentiment data for Germany today, which will give a hint on how the region's largest economy will behave over the next six months.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.20
This week's FOMC minutes may reveal the committee's preference for a 50 basis point rate hike than originally anticipated. Considering this, the US dollar is well positioned to continue its recovery, especially if there is demand for safe-haven assets. Also, Eurozone inflation data will be released this week, where there could be surprises in the form of new price pressure.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.17
The EU economy has not yet felt the full impact of an interest rate hike from the European Central Bank, two senior ECB officials said Thursday. Nevertheless, the Eurozone economy is holding up better than expected, and inflation indicators are trending downward. According to ECB policymakers, overall inflation in the Eurozone could fall below 3% by the end of the year if falling energy prices continue. Financial markets expect the ECB to raise the bank deposit rate to at least 3.5% by summer 2023.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.16
ECB head Christine Lagarde said yesterday that she would vote for a 0.5% rate hike at the next ECB meeting. The medium-term outlook for the euro remains bullish, but the EUR/USD is pulling lower amid a temporary rise in the dollar index. The dollar index is rising on the back of strong US economic data (labor market, GDP, industrial production), which opens up more room for the Fed to raise rates.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.15
The US inflation rate declined from 6.5% to 6.4% (forecast 6.2%) annually, while core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also declined from 5.7% to 5.6% (forecast 5.5%). Although inflationary pressures are easing, the fall in inflation is not happening as quickly as the US Federal Reserve had predicted. This factor increases the likelihood that the US Fed will hold one or two more interest rate hikes before pausing. Therefore, in the short term, the dollar has fundamental reasons to strengthen. On the other hand, the ECB is now acting more aggressively than the US Fed, and the narrowing of the interest rate differential should play in favor of a stronger euro in the medium term.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.14
New inflation data will be released in the US today. The Consumer Price Index is expected to fall from 6.5% to 6.3% year-over-year, while basic inflation (excluding food and energy prices) will also decrease from 5.7% to 5.4%. If the actual data matches, or at least is no worse, the dollar index will probably start to lose ground, as falling inflation would indicate that the US Fed is on the right track and the high probability of a "soft" economic landing. But if inflation turns out to be hotter, especially the core index, it will give confidence to the dollar on the back of the fact that the US Fed will not stop and continue to raise interest rates.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.13
Speaking at the Warwick Economics Summit on Saturday, Bank of Italy Governor Ignazio Visco pointed out that the extreme uncertainty the ECB is experiencing today must necessarily imply a continued tightening of monetary policy to avoid the possibility of related secondary effects. Visco also added that if there are signs of a wage spiral and inflation expectations become insufficiently anchored, a further and significant tightening of monetary policy will certainly be warranted. Thus, the ECB remains on an aggressive path of policy tightening until at least May.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.10
Germany's inflation rate increased from 8.6% to 8.7% (forecast 8.9%) annually. Despite the fact that the data was better than forecasted, the rising inflation is not a pleasant factor in itself, especially for the largest economy in the region. Although the outlook for the eurozone has improved in recent months, many Wall Street analysts still believe a shallow recession will materialize later this year. Weak economic data in the coming weeks may limit the euro's potential to grow in the short term.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.09
According to the ECB Governing Council spokesman Martins Kazaks, the central bank should raise interest rates to levels that will "significantly" constrain the economy. At the same time, the politician added that rate hikes might have to be maintained after the March meeting. That said, the peak in borrowing costs will have to be maintained for some time to ensure that the eurozone's strongest price spike is subdued. Analysts are predicting that the ECB will raise the rate by 0.5% at the March meeting and a 0.25% rate hike in May.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.08
On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that inflation is slowing but reaffirmed the need for it to continue rising. Morgan Stanley predicts that the US Federal Reserve will end its tightening cycle at the May meeting at 5.00-5.25%, after which it will take a long pause. According to the Fed's rate monitoring tool, expectations of a rate hike in March are almost entirely factored into prices, while the probability of a rate hike in May jumped from 38% to 69%.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.07
The dollar jumped to a four-week high against the euro on Monday. Unexpectedly strong US jobs data last week raised the possibility that the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise interest rates to fight inflation. This news is still being "digested" by market participants. But it should be noted that despite the hawkish statements of the US Fed representatives, the ECB also continues to raise rates aggressively and plans to make another 0.5% increase in March. Therefore, traders should not count on a prolonged EUR/USD downtrend.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.06
According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, total Nonfarm Payrolls rose by 517K in January (forecast 190K, forecast 223K), and the unemployment rate declined to 3.4% (forecast 3.6%, forecast 3.5%). The very strong labor market data leaves more leeway for the US Federal Reserve to keep raising rates. This brought panic back into the market as investors rushed to sell stocks and buy dollars. Financial markets are currently pricing in another 25 basis point rate hike at the US Fed's March meeting and another 50 basis point hike from the ECB. In the medium term, a reduction in the interest rate spread should play for the European currency's strengthening.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.03
The ECB, as expected, raised the interest rate by 0.5% yesterday. The US Fed is ending its rate hike cycle and will soon talk about ending quantitative tightening (QT), with the ECB about halfway through and planning to start QT in March. The rate spread between the euro and the dollar will continue to narrow, which is positive for the European currency. Analysts believe that all downward corrections in EUR/USD quotes are worth using for medium-term euro purchases.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.02
The euro area's overall inflation rate fell sharply in January from 9.2% to 8.5% year-on-year, while the core indicator was unchanged from the previous month at 5.2%. Earlier data showed that the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Index reached a five-month high of 48.8, up from 47.8 the previous month. Although the manufacturing sector remains in contraction territory (below 50), the data indicate that the worst of the recession is over. Today traders will focus on the ECB monetary policy meeting, where a 0.5% rate hike is expected.
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The Forecast – 2023.02.01
The important Eurozone inflation report will also be published today in addition to the US Federal Reserve's meeting, where a 0.25% rate hike is expected. Analysts expect both usual inflation (from 9.2% to 9.0%) and core inflation (from 5.2% to 5.1%) to fall in annual terms. But if the data is worse than expected, the euro could strengthen sharply as the ECB aggressively raises interest rates in its next meetings. Other economic data showed that Eurozone GDP grew by 0.1% in the last quarter. Despite the growth, the dynamics are downward, and the next quarter is likely to show a contraction.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.31
Recession fears have returned to Germany. Preliminary GDP data showed that the economy shrank by 0.2% quarterly after rising by 0.5% in the third quarter. Annual GDP growth for 2022 was also revised downward to 1.8% from 1.9% year-over-year. Some strategists believe the German economy has yet to fully feel the effects of the European Central Bank's rate hike. Demand for mortgages has already begun to fall. Warmer winter weather and realized and announced government fiscal stimulus packages have prevented the economy from sharply falling, but a technical recession is still a likely scenario.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.30
The core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index declined from 4.7% to 4.4%. This indicator is on the US Federal Reserve's list of monitored inflation indicators and influences monetary policy. It is clear that inflationary pressures in the US are declining, and the peak of inflation is behind us. The next move is up to the US Fed. A 0.25% rate hike this week is pretty much a done deal. The only uncertainty remains as to when the Fed will make its last rate hike and take a long pause.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.27
ECB representatives Makhlouf, Nagel and Vasle made more or less the same statements yesterday, agreeing on the need for further rate hikes and warning that the fight against inflation is not over yet. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde also repeatedly used the phrase "stay the course" in her last speech. Markets have already priced in the next two rate hikes from the ECB. But what will happen next? Uncertainty about ECB action after March is increasing. For now, analysts predict lower price pressure and further rate hikes, with a 0.25% rate hike in May and June.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.26
According to the latest Ifo report, the German economy is starting the new year with more confidence. The Ifo Business Climate Index rose to 90.2 points in January, up from 88.6 points in December. The latest official forecast for the German economy is also more optimistic, with the government forecasting growth of 0.2% this year compared to the previous forecast of a 0.4% contraction. Markets expect the ECB to raise interest rates by 50 basis points next week and hold another 50 bps hike at the March meeting.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.25
Eurozone manufacturing activity rose from 47.8 to 48.8 (a 5-month high). Service sector activity rose from 49.8 to 50.7 (a 6-month high). Eurozone composite business activity index showed 50.2 (December: 49.3). The increase in business activity was driven by technology (both IT services and equipment) as well as the healthcare and pharmaceuticals sectors, although manufacturing has also returned to growth territory. The resumption of manufacturing growth in this area comes as optimism continues to improve. The Eurozone is beginning to show economic resilience.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.24
According to the latest Federal Reserve CME data, the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates by 25 basis points at the FOMC meeting on February 1 and another 25 basis points at the next meeting in March. The US central bank will then hold rates until the fourth quarter. A slowdown in the pace of monetary tightening in the coming weeks has a negative impact on the dollar index. The US will have two important reports this week: the first, the US GDP report for the fourth quarter on Thursday, and then the Core PCE on Friday. These two releases will drive the dollar index in the short term.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.23
Last week, ECB President Christine Lagarde refuted all market expectations of a slowdown in interest rate hikes. The ECB is determined, so investors should expect at least two more rate hikes of 0.5%. The ECB will hold its next policy meeting on February 2. With the US tech giants now announcing a wave of layoffs one after another, it suggests that the US labor market is starting to fall, which will limit the US Federal Reserve's tightening policy. Therefore, right now, the European currency has better growth prospects than the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.20
The ECB is still determined to keep raising rates by 50 basis points in its next meetings. At the same time, there is a growing possibility that the ECB will cut its bond holdings faster. The ECB's December monetary policy report showed that many policymakers were initially in favor of raising the ECB's key interest rates by 75 basis points because inflation was expected to be too high. Given the latest Eurozone inflation data, analysts are leaning toward the ECB raising rates by 50 basis points in February and March and then another 25 basis points in May, after which Europe's Central Bank will pause for a few months.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.19
Yesterday, the latest inflation data was published in Europe. The report showed that consumer prices (including the core inflation) remained unchanged compared to the previous month. This raises the possibility of a 0.5% rate hike by the ECB at its next meeting. In the US, widespread declines in key components of retail sales and growing signs that inflationary pressures are declining rapidly mean we are very close to a Federal Reserve rate hike. A 0.25% Fed rate hike in February is considered the most likely (92%) scenario today. Narrowing the differential between the US Fed and ECB rates in the short term would help strengthen the euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.18
The ZEW German Economic Sentiment Index, jumped in January, outperforming the previous month's reading. The ZEW Business Sentiment Index is considered a leading indicator of economic activity. The positive reading, the first since February 2022, indicates a marked improvement in economic conditions over the next six months, while the prospect of further declining inflation has improved expectations for consumer sectors. The ZEW index for the Eurozone also jumped. The increase in the indicators had little impact on the EUR/USD exchange rate, but there are more and more factors for a stronger euro.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.17
The hawkish sentiment of the European Central Bank has long-term consequences for the euro. Currently, the ECB is expected to raise its discount rate by 125 bps in 2Q 2023, bringing the deposit rate to 3.25%. The ECB will then keep the rate at this level until the end of 2024. This will significantly reduce the euro and US dollar interest rate differential, which may strengthen the European currency in the short term.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.16
European Central Bank member Martins Kazaks rejects investors' view that the ECB will cut interest rates by the end of this year, saying a deep recession will be needed to lower borrowing costs. Finland's Central Bank governor, Olli Rehn, and Spain's Pablo Hernandez de Dos also called for the ECB to raise rates significantly in upcoming meetings. Money markets expect the ECB to raise the bank deposit rate by nearly 150 basis points by summer, starting at 50 basis points at each of the ECB's February 5 and March 16, 2023 meetings.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.13
The US consumer price Index decreased from 7.1% to 6.5% (forecast 6.5%) annually. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also slowed y/y from 6% to 5.7% (forecast 5.7%). Lower inflationary pressures have increased bets that the Federal Reserve will move to a slower rate of increase. Economists expect the Central Bank to announce a 25 basis point rate hike at its next meeting on February 1. This has caused the dollar to sell off and investors to move into riskier assets such as the euro and pound.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.12
Important inflation data will be released in the US today. Economists expect the consumer price index to fall from 7.1% to 6.5% year-over-year in December. If the actual data match the forecast, the dollar index could fall even more. But if the data is worse than expected, especially for core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, the situation could be reversed. In this case, the dollar index would likely show impulse up, while the euro would collapse.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.11
In his speech at the banking symposium in Sweden, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell did not provide any new information on monetary policy but pointed to the central bank's resolve, saying unpopular decisions may be needed to reduce inflation. At the same time, ECB spokeswoman Ms. Schnabel indicated yesterday that the ECB's restrictive monetary policy stance would benefit society in the medium to long term by restoring price stability. As a result, economists expect the US Federal Reserve to reduce the pace of rate hikes to 0.25%, while the ECB will raise the rate by 0.5% at its next meeting amid declining inflationary pressures in the United States.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.10
According to Goldman Sachs, the Federal Reserve's regime of further interest rate hikes is not yet in the price of the dollar. That means the dollar could strengthen slightly in the coming weeks, as investors' bets on a Fed cut are premature. On the other hand, the European currency now has a fundamental reason to rise as the ECB is planning an aggressive 0.5% rate hike at its next two meetings.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.09
Falling energy prices in the Eurozone (especially natural gas prices) helped weaken the overall inflation rate. On an annualized basis, the Eurozone's overall inflation rate fell from 10.1% to 9.2%. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also fell from 5.1% to 5.0% year over year. But the detailed report indicates that price pressures in non-energy sectors are rising, especially for food. This indicates that inflation is still strong.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.06
Today, the US will publish an important Nonfarm Payroll report. Analysts forecast that the data will show a number of 200,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate will remain unchanged. Such data may return strength to the dollar index, as a robust labor market gives the US Federal Reserve more room to act, including bringing the interest rate to the desired level in 2 meetings instead of 3. Conversely, a deterioration in labor market data, on the other hand, would indicate that the US Fed would act more softly, which is negative for the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.05
According to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's December meeting, Federal Reserve policymakers agreed that an extended period of restrictive policy would be needed to cool "unacceptably high" inflation. The Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised its rate target to a range of 5% to 5.25%. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari predicts the Fed will raise rates to 5.4%, after which the Central Bank will take a long pause. Markets expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% at its next meeting on February 1, with an 84% probability of such a scenario.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.04
Preliminary data showed that inflation in Germany slowed to an annualized rate of 8.6% in December from 10% as one-time government payments came into effect to help consumers pay their heating and gas bills. In recent months, many German unions have successfully advocated above-average wage increases to offset the impact of inflation. Meanwhile, unemployment rates in Europe's largest economy rose slightly in December to 2.45 million, or 5.5%.
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The Forecast – 2023.01.03
The ECB is expected to go against the trend of most other major central banks early this year and continue its aggressive pace of rate hikes, even though inflationary pressures across Europe are forecast to ease this week. The ECB was the last of the big central banks to start raising rates, which means Europe's Central Bank has more "room" to continue tightening. Moreover, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector indicates that the European industry has already adapted to high prices, the recession in manufacturing activity in the euro area is probably over, and supply chains are recovering.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.30
The dollar index may find some support in the final days of 2022 as geopolitical tensions, and the ban on Chinese travelers continue to escalate. Many countries have already announced rules for inbound Chinese, including India, Malaysia, Italy, and the United States. It should also be noted that many investors are closing their positions in anticipation of the long holiday before the US tax season closes.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.29
Inflation in the Eurozone lags Lithuanian inflation by half a year, which means that its peak is still to come. This is the opinion of the representative of the European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council, Gediminas Simkus. The main risk comes from the energy crisis amid falling temperatures in winter. If Europe manages to pass this winter without considerable problems in the energy system, it is possible to say with certainty that the inflation peak has already passed this spring.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.28
President of the European Central Bank, Luis de Guindos, believes that the economic situation in the Eurozone is very complicated. The politician believes that the Eurozone will go through a brief and shallow recession before the economy starts growing again in the second quarter of 2023. At this point, the ECB is expected to continue to raise interest rates for at least two more meetings. ECB Governing Council spokesman and Dutch Governor Klaas Knot believes the ECB is only halfway through its tightening cycle.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.27
This is the last trading week of the year. With many investors closing their books for the year and many traders and managers going on vacation, liquidity will be less than usual. This means the markets may move sharply without any news. The dollar fell against most currencies in trading Friday as recent data signaled that the US Personal Consumption Index (PCE) is slowing, reinforcing expectations for a smaller interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve and improving investors' appetite for risk. The Fed is expected to raise interest rates by only 25 basis points at its next meeting.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.23
Yesterday, US GDP data showed that the US economy increased by 3.2%, higher than the expected 2.9%. This brought back some investor fears about an interest rate hike. The important indicator today will come from the major PCE prices, where a rise in the numbers could put some hawkish pressure back on the markets, causing the dollar index to rise again (EUR/USD to fall). Low liquidity over the holiday period could lead to stronger moves if economic data is significantly different from estimates.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.22
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index in the US jumped to 108.3 from 101.4, beating economists' forecast of 101.0. The rise in consumer sentiment has eased fears of a US recession. Investors are now waiting for US GDP data for the latest quarter and data on the PCE Index, which is among the US Federal Reserve's monitored inflation indicators. Growing inflationary pressures may bring panic moods back to the market, which will cause EUR/USD quotes to fall against the background of the dollar's strengthening.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.21
ECB officials earlier this week indicated that a 50 bps rate hike at the next meeting is the best-case scenario and is seen as the main scenario within the monetary policy tightening. It is also should ту noted that the ECB decided at its last meeting to start gradually reducing its balance sheet next year. The tightening of monetary policy is usually accompanied by currency appreciation. But investors should also consider the difference between central banks' interest rates. As long as the US Fed has a higher rate than the ECB, traders should not expect the Euro to strengthen in the medium term.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.20
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said on Monday that the ECB would continue to raise rates in the Eurozone to curb inflation and is not considering revising its own medium-term inflation target of 2%. Germany's leading Ifo index rose to 88.6 in December from 86.4 in November. The index is now back to levels last seen in the summer. The outlook for Europe's largest economy is improving despite the energy crisis.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.19
The latest US inflation report highlighted the peak of the Fed's hawkish stance. But the largest component of the Consumer Price Index continues to rise, leaving concerns about tight prices ahead. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daley said Friday that the central bank is "far" from its goal of price stability and that the market remains more dovish than the Fed predicts about interest rates going forward.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.16
The European Central Bank (ECB) raised its interest rate by another 50 basis points (bps) at its December meeting, bringing its discount rate to the upper limit of most estimates of a neutral configuration for the eurozone, at 2%. The ECB's new macroeconomic forecasts predict inflation above the ECB's price stability definition for the entire three-year forecast horizon. The peak discount rate is forecast at 3.25%. Eurozone's inflation data will be released today. Analysts forecast that consumer prices will remain unchanged.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.15
The US Federal Reserve raised its interest rate by 0.5% on Wednesday and raised its rate forecast to a peak of 5.1%. Thus, the Federal Reserve moved to a slower pace of rate hikes and also signaled that rates would reach higher levels than previously expected. At the Fed press conference, Mr. Powell indicated that it is too early to talk about interest rate cuts by the US central bank and that the Fed's focus is on developing policies that will eventually return inflation to the 2% target.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.14
The US consumer inflation rate declined from 7.7% to 7.1% year-over-year. Core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) also fell from 6.3% to 6.1%. Germany's inflation rate fell from 10.4% to 10% year-over-year. On the back of such a sharp decline in inflation, investors renewed their interest in risky assets, which led to a sharp drop in the dollar against major currency pairs.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.13
The US consumer price data will be released today, and an important interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve will be held tomorrow. Analysts forecast that the consumer inflation rate will fall from 7.7% to 7.4% year-over-year, and core inflation (which excludes food and energy prices) will fall from 6.3% to 6.1%. Amid the slowdown in rate hikes, investors will turn their attention to riskier assets such as the euro. Also, on Tuesday, Germany will publish inflation data where inflationary pressures are also expected to decrease. Thus, volatility in currency pairs with the US dollar and euro will be extremely high.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.12
This week, the ECB will hold its last monetary policy meeting of the year. Analysts expect the ECB to raise the interest rate by another 50 basis points. But the main focus of investors right now is not on the size of the rate hike but on the final rate level and what the rate difference will be between the US Fed and the ECB. The bigger the difference between the two, the stronger the dollar index against the euro.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.09
Initial jobless claims jumped to the highest level since February, indicating that unemployed people need more time to find work. These are the first signs that the US labor market is beginning to "cool down," which will affect the Fed's monetary policy toward slowing the rate hikes. The end of the tightening cycle is close.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.08
European Central Bank spokesman Kazimir pointed out yesterday that the inflation figure alone is not enough to slow rates down, so the ECB has plenty of "reasons" to keep tightening. Kazimir is considered among the most hawkish spokespeople and favors a 75 bps rate hike. Also, Kazimir is not convinced that Eurozone inflation has peaked but believes that the Eurozone recession will be short.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.07
European Central Bank spokesman Constantinos Herodotou said on Tuesday that interest rates will continue to rise but are now "very close" to their neutral level. ECB policymakers are repeating the same mantra without saying anything specific. That's their style. Analysts are leaning that the ECB will raise the interest rate by 0.5% at next week's meeting.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.06
Europe's Central Bank is likely to raise its interest rate by 0.5% this month, according to Gabriel Makhlouf of the ECB Governing Council. Makhlouf considers the half-point move the "minimum necessary" to keep inflation moving back toward the 2% target. Makhlouf also believes that Europe is likely to suffer a "technical recession" this quarter and in the first three months of 2023, but rate hikes should continue.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.05
On Friday, investors were looking for signs of weakness in the US labor market, especially wages, as a precursor to a faster slowdown in inflation, which would allow the Fed to slow down and eventually halt its current rate hike cycle. But the NFP data surprised again, and the October data was revised upward, highlighting that the US labor market continues to show signs of high resilience despite tightening financial conditions. This, in turn, gives the Fed room for another major hike, although there is less than a 20% chance of such a scenario.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.02
Eurozone manufacturing PMI showed a decline from 47.3 to 47.1. Data for European countries were mixed. Germany posted a decline from 46.7 to 46.2, France showed a decline from 49.1 to 48.3, but Spain's PMI rose from 44.7 to 45.7, and Italy also saw an increase from 46.5 to 48.4. The unemployment rate in Europe declined from 6.6% to 6.5%. A strong labor market is room for the ECB to act more aggressively, but a drop in overall business activity is a sign of rate pressure on the economy. Therefore, the ECB is likely to choose a less aggressive path, especially given the fact that there are signs of slowing inflation.
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The Forecast – 2022.12.01
Eurozone's inflation eased in November from 10.6 to 10% y/y due to falling energy prices. Core inflation remained stable at 5%. Nevertheless, economists warn that lower inflation is unlikely to prevent the European Central Bank from raising interest rates as food inflation continues to rise. Whether this is the peak of overall inflation remains to be seen. But the current economic situation could push the European Central Bank to hike less by 50 basis points next month.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.30
Germany's Consumer Price Index fell from 10.4% to 10% annually. The main criterion for the decline in inflation is the drop in energy prices. Food prices have not slowed down: they rose from 20.3% to 21%. Thus, it is too early to say that this decline in inflation is due to a rate hike by the ECB. Today, the Eurozone inflation data will also be released.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.29
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde showed her hawkish side on Monday, pointing out that inflation is not yet at its peak, thus adding more uncertainty to what further action the ECB will take. Isabel Schnabel warned last week against further monetary tightening. At the same time, the ECB's chief economist Philip Lane posted a dovish blog post on Friday, speaking out against aggressive rate hikes and higher wage growth this year as a sign of higher structural inflation.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.28
Many European countries will update their inflation data this week. This data, along with the labor market report, will give more clarity to ECB officials on which rate hike step to choose at the December meeting. Some ECB officials are leaning towards a 50 basis point hike, while others are leaning towards a 75 bps hike. If this week's data shows that inflationary pressures are at least not increasing, no doubt the ECB will favor the 0.5% step. Economists expect all economies except Spain to show a slowdown in inflation.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.25
The minutes of the October European Central Bank meeting does not indicate a reversal soon. The ECB is underlining its determination to keep raising interest rates. But this time, policymakers are less aggressive, and recession fears are growing. Analysts expect the ECB to raise rates by 50 bps in December and another 25 bps in February. The issue of quantitative easing (QT) remains open. Experts believe the ECB will announce a gradual reduction in reinvestment of its asset purchase program (APP) bonds at the December meeting with the goal of stopping reinvestment by the end of 2023.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.24
According to the November Fed meeting minutes released on Wednesday, Federal Reserve officials expect to move to a smaller interest rate hike soon. The main reason is concern that a rapid rate hike could seriously affect financial stability and the economy. Markets had largely expected the Fed to reduce the intensity of its policy tightening, and the FOMC minutes confirmed this. This situation has returned investors' interest in risky assets.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.23
Tomorrow is Thanksgiving in the United States, so there will be lots of macroeconomic statistics today, and investors' attention will be concentrated on the FOMC protocols publication.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.22
The US dollar rose against most major currencies on Monday as new COVID-19 restrictions in China increased fears about the global economic outlook and caused traders to avoid riskier currencies.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.21
The US dollar is strengthening amid hawkish statements by Fed policymakers and renewed investor demand amid fears of slowing growth in China.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.18
Inflation in the Eurozone is showing signs of slowing. In Japan, the inflation rate has reached a 40-year-high.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.17
The main focus of investors today is inflation data in the Eurozone, as well as the new UK budget.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.15
The Japanese yen is showing weakness amid falling GDP. Hawkish signals from ECB officials support the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.14
The UK economy is contracting. The Bank of Japan is moving towards a normalization of monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.11
A US inflation decline has returned investors' interest in risky assets.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.10
The US dollar rose against a basket of major currencies as the outcome of the US congressional elections remains uncertain. Today, investors are focusing on US inflation data.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.09
The dollar index is declining amid expectations of the US election results.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.08
Today, the main focus of investors is the US Congressional elections.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.07
The US labor market data on Friday was mixed. That's why investors' attention is now shifting to US inflation data due out this week.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.04
Today, investors focus on the US labor market data (Non-farm payrolls).
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The Forecast – 2022.11.03
The US Federal Reserve has no plans to lower the pace of interest rate hikes. The dollar Index is returning to growth.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.02
Today, the main focus of investors is the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy and interest rate meeting.
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The Forecast – 2022.11.01
Inflation in the Eurozone set a new record. The dollar index is rising ahead of the Fed meeting.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.31
Today, the main focus of investors is inflation data in the Eurozone, as well as Eurozone GDP data for the third quarter.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.28
The ECB raised its interest rate by 0.75%. The Bank of Japan remained faithful to its soft monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.27
Investors are focusing on the ECB interest rate decision today and US GDP data for the third quarter.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.26
Today, investors are focusing on the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.25
Britain has chosen a new prime minister. Business activity in Europe continues to decline.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.24
The Bank of Japan has once again intervened in the currency. The British pound is strengthening despite enormous political uncertainty.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.21
The Japanese yen reached its weakest level since 1990, and the pound fell after the prime minister announced his resignation.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.20
Inflation continues to accelerate. Consumer prices in the Eurozone and the UK hit multi-year highs.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.19
Today the main focus of investors is inflation data in the Eurozone, the UK, and Canada.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.18
The Japanese yen hit a 32-year low against the dollar. The likelihood of a new intervention grows with each passing day.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.17
According to the outcome of the International Monetary Fund meeting - inflation is the most immediate threat to the "present and future."
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The Forecast – 2022.10.14
The US inflation data heightened fears of more hawkish interest rate hikes by the Fed in the coming months.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.13
The FOMC minutes showed that policymakers raised their assessment of the Fed's rate trajectory needed to meet their target.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.12
Fears that the continued aggressive tightening of the Fed's policy will lead the world economy into a recession are a major factor in the strengthening of the dollar and the fall of risky assets.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.11
US Inflation data, FOMC, and oil prices will remain central topics for investors this week
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The Forecast – 2022.10.07
Today, the main focus of investors is on non-farm payrolls. Negative data could trigger a drop in the dollar index and a rise in the major basket of currencies.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.06
Japan's yen is back to the 145 level. The Canadian dollar is strengthening on the back of OPEC+ production cuts.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.05
The dollar index fell nearly 3%, allowing the major basket of currencies to strengthen. The euro returned above parity.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.04
Manufacturing activity in Europe is declining. The UK is canceling some of its tax cuts.
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The Forecast – 2022.10.03
Inflation in Europe set a new record. The British pound sterling continues to strengthen amid actions by the Bank of England.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.30
The Bank of England began a historic intervention to stabilize the economy. The Canadian economy continues to grow despite inflationary pressures and high rates.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.29
The dollar index retreated from the highs. The Bank of England plans to buy as many government bonds as necessary to stabilize markets.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.28
The dollar index is holding on to the highs. The main basket of currencies is still under pressure because of the strong dollar.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.27
The dollar index dictates market movement in all directions. The Euro, British pound, and Canadian dollar have no strength to resist.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.23
The Bank of England raised the interest rate to its highest level in 14 years. Japan's Ministry of Finance intervened in the currency for the first time since 1998.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.22
The US Central Bank raised the rate by 75 basis points and is poised to make another big hike at the November meeting. The US dollar reached a 20-year high.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.21
The dollar index is rising as there is a high probability that the US Federal Reserve will raise rates by 75 basis points today for the third consecutive time.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.20
Inflation in Japan reached an 8-year record. The Eurozone is sliding into recession.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.19
The euro continues to trade near parity. The Canadian dollar updated a two-year low against the dollar index.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.16
Today, investors' attention is focused on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.15
ECB policymakers call for another major interest rate hike. Japan is talking about currency intervention
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The Forecast – 2022.09.14
The US inflation showed no signs of slowing, which caused the dollar to jump.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.13
The US dollar continued its decline against most major currencies on Monday. Inflation data will be released in the US today.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.12
The US dollar fell on Friday after hawkish comments from the European Central Bank prompted traders to reconsider expectations of a global interest rate hike.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.09
The ECB raised its interest rate by 0.75%. The pound is strengthening amid a new stimulus package for the energy sector and consumers.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.08
The Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 0.75%. The euro is rising ahead of an important ECB meeting.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.07
The euro is falling as the dollar index rises. The Japanese yen has fallen to multi-year lows.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.05
The euro is under pressure again. The pound has fallen to a one-year low. The closure of Nord Stream indefinitely strengthens the dollar index.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.02
Today, investors' attention is focused on the US nonfarm payrolls data.
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The Forecast – 2022.09.01
The euro is strengthening amid rising inflation. The Canadian dollar is losing ground on falling oil prices.
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The Forecast – 2022.08.31
Inflation data will be released today in the Eurozone. A rise in the figures may give confidence to the euro amid expectations for a more aggressive rate hike by the ECB.
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The Forecast – 2022.08.30
The euro is strengthening amid rumors of an aggressive rate hike by the ECB. The pound continues to lose confidence.
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The Forecast – 2022.08.29
The US Central Bank intends to keep raising interest rates aggressively.
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The Forecast – 2022.08.26
Today Jerome Powell will give an important speech at the annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole.
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The Forecast – 2022.08.25
The US will release its Q2 GDP data today, and the annual economic symposium will begin in Jackson Hole.
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The Forecast – 2022.08.24
The US dollar pulled back from a high after weak S&P Global PMI data, which temporarily strengthened currencies such as the euro and the pound.
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The Forecast – 2022.08.23
The euro has fallen below parity. The dollar is rising amid growing concerns that higher interest rates in the US and Europe, aimed at curbing inflation, will weaken the global economy.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.31
The number of new jobless claims in the USA amounted to 198,000, while analysts expected 206,000. This is the lowest value since the beginning of the pandemic, and this data gave optimism to investors that the new wave of infections will not be able to stop the economic recovery.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.30
The US exports fell by 2.1%, and imports increased by 4.7% last month. Meanwhile, the US pending home sales index fell by 2.2% in November after jumping 7.5% in October. Analysts expected growth of 0.5%.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.29
The dollar index has been traded in a narrow range for the past two trading days, indicating low volatility caused by the Christmas and New Year holidays. In the long term, analysts expect the dollar index to rise because of an imminent interest rate hike by the Fed, and markets usually tend to price expectations earlier.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.28
With Omicron fears easing, the Japanese Yen hit a one-month low yesterday, while the Euro and the British Pound were stable. The dollar index, which is also a safe haven for investors, was little changed from Friday.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.27
The balance of the US Fed reached a new record of $8.8 trillion. But it should be noted that the Fed's bond buying pace is declining now. At the same time, the Fed's total assets are 38% of US GDP compared to 82% for the ECB and 133% for the Bank of England.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.24
The number of initial jobless claims in the US amounted to 205,000. In November, the US personal income increased by 0.4%, personal spending increased by 0.6%. All data was in line with analysts' forecasts.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.23
The US consumer confidence increased to 115.8 in December, well above the consensus forecast of 111.0. The US GDP growth for the quarter was 2.3% (2.1% was expected). Pfizer's COVID-19 drug received emergency approval in the US, easing investor concerns about Omicron strain.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.22
Market quotes are now very closely related to the news about coronavirus. Any small negative or positive news about the Omicron strain leads to sharp movements in almost all major instruments.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.21
The dollar index has fundamental support from the US Federal Reserve now. Investors and bankers are also actively buying the US dollar at the moment due to the weakness of stock indices because of the uncertainty of the Omicron spread.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.20
The World Health Organization says a variant of the Omicron coronavirus has been found in 89 countries. According to the study, the probability of re-infection with Omicron is five times higher than that of the Delta. Scientists predict that Omicron will lead to record hospitalizations and tremendous strain on health care systems in all countries.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.17
The US Initial jobless claims were 206,000 (analyst expected 200,000). The USA industrial production index and business activity showed a decline in November. The Bank of England unexpectedly raised its key interest rate.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.16
According to the results of the FOMC meeting: The US Fed kept the interest rate at 0-0.25%. The US Fed is doubling the rate of reduction of the quantitative easing program to 30 billion dollars per month. Fed officials forecast 3 interest rate hikes in 2022 and 3 interest rate hikes in 2023. The Fed raised its 2021 US inflation forecast to 5.3% from 4.2% and expects inflation of 2.6% in 2022 and 2.3% in 2023.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.15
The US Producer Price Index, which shows the inflation rate between factories, jumped to 9.6% year-over-year (9.2% was expected), the highest level since 2010. The US Federal Reserve will meet on monetary policy and interest rates issues today. The Fed is expected to accelerate the reduction of its QE program.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.14
The dollar index is rising amid growing analysts' confidence that the Fed will accelerate QE cuts at its meeting tomorrow. The first death from the Omicron strain in the UK has increased uncertainty about further global economic recovery.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.13
Last week on Friday, investors' attention was focused on the US consumer price index. The US consumer price inflation increased to 6.8% in annual terms, it has been the highest level during the last 39 years.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.10
The number of new jobless claims in the US amounted to 184,000; analysts expected 220,000. The last time such a figure was in 1969. Today the inflation data will be published in the US. Analysts are expected to increase consumer prices to 6.9-7% in annual terms.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.09
On Wednesday, the dollar index fell against major currencies since easing fears of an economic hit from the Omicron COVID-19 strain helped support riskier currencies such as the Australian dollar. In October, the number of open jobs in the US increased to an all-time high (from 10.4 to 11 million).
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The Forecast – 2021.12.08
Investors' appetite for risk has slightly increased again since the variant Omicron COVID-19 although less serious. However, existing vaccines will not be able to provide full protection against it.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.07
The dollar index again demonstrates strength towards main currencies since concerns about the impact of the OMICRON COVID-19 variant are decreasing.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.06
Last week on Friday, investors' attention was focused on US nonfarm payrolls data. The labor market statistics were disappointing. In November, only 210,000 jobs were added to the US economy (against 533,000 expected), while the unemployment rate decreased from 4.6% to 4.2%.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.03
The ADP employment report showed that the US labor market is recovering despite high inflation. But 5 million more jobs are needed to reach the pre-pandemic numbers. Today, the US will release an important report on nonfarm payrolls.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.02
Despite the uncertainty surrounding Omicron and its impact, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed his position that the Fed will consider accelerating asset cuts at its December 14-15 meeting. This could also mean a faster-than-expected interest rate hike.
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The Forecast – 2021.12.01
Jerome Powell indicated that the US central bank may accelerate the tightening of monetary policy at the next meeting. The market reaction to such an announcement was immediate - the dollar index jumped sharply, which led to a decline in major currency pairs against the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.30
Moderna's CEO stated that the Omicron strain of the virus is resistant to existing vaccines. On the back of this news, the indices started declining again, while investors continued to buy “safe-haven” Japanese Yen.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.29
Investors are shifting funds to the Japanese yen amid the rapid spread of the new Covid-19 strain "Omicron." The Canadian dollar loses its position due to a sharp decline in oil quotes. The Euro and the British pound are stable.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.26
The European Central Bank meeting minutes showed that the PEPP (stimulus program) purchase may end by March 2022. Global markets are reacting anxiously to the new Covid-19 strain detected in South Africa.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.25
The number of new jobless claims in the US was 199,000; analysts expected an amount of 260,000. Estimates of the US GDP growth in the third quarter improved to 2.1% from 2%; the forecast was 2.2%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that politicians are ready to raise interest rates if inflation continues to rise.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.24
Today, the FOMC protocols are expected to be published as well as some other important US economic data ahead of tomorrow's bank holiday. Any hints from the Fed to accelerate the pace of QE reduction or to raise interest rates could push the dollar index higher. If the pace of the cuts remains the same, the dollar index may start a technical correction.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.23
The US President Joe Biden supported Jerome Powell for a second four-year term as the US Federal Reserve chairman. The dollar index and Treasury yields jumped on this news, leading to a drop in gold and a sharp decline in currencies against the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.22
The dollar index is strengthening again, while the euro is declining due to growing concerns over the COVID situation in Europe. The dollar got support from optimistic comments made by Federal Reserve officials Richard Clarida and Christopher Waller on Friday, who suggested that a faster pace of stimulus cuts might be appropriate amid rising inflation.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.19
Inflation is rising worldwide, somewhere faster, somewhere slower, but the trend is clearly visible. According to S&P analysts, global inflation will peak in the fourth quarter of 2021. Now all investors' attention is focused on when central banks will start raising interest rates in response to rising inflation.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.18
The British pound sterling increased to a one-week high against the dollar after a sharp October surge in UK inflation put pressure on the Bank of England to raise interest rates.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.17
The US retail sales increased by 1.7% in October, while the analyst expected 1.4%. Such positive data eased investor concerns that the Federal Reserve might have to become more aggressive in the face of rising inflation.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.16
The dollar index hit a 16-month high yesterday. Investors are buying the USD because of a sharp rise in US inflation. This rise confuted the Federal Reserve's view that price pressures would be temporary and strengthened speculation that interest rates would be raised earlier than previously expected.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.15
This week, the main focus of investors will be Consumer Price Index data in the Eurozone, UK, Canada, and Japan. Most analysts expect inflation to rise in Canada and the UK. A rise in inflation tends to strengthen the national currency in anticipation that the central bank will soon begin tightening monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.12
The British pound and the euro showed sharp declines in recent days as the dollar index increased on speculation that skyrocketing inflation in the United States may prompt the Federal Reserve to tighten its policy.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.11
The US consumer price index increased by 0.9% to 6.2% in annual terms; it’s substantially above analysts' forecasts. With such a sharp rise in inflation, investors began to rebalance portfolios into the US dollars actively, anticipating a rate hike soon. The number of new jobless claims in the USA was 267,000, while analysts expected 260,000.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.10
Today, the inflation data will be released in the US and Germany. Analysts expect US inflation to rise insignificantly. But if the actual value is much worse than expected, the dollar index may react significantly as the Fed is ready to speed up the pace of stimulus cuts if necessary.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.09
According to FOMC officials, the US central bank is actively monitoring inflation indicators and is ready to act decisively if consumer prices continue to rise. But Fed officials are confident that inflation remains under control and interest rates should not be expected to rise until the end of the QE program reduction.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.08
The US labor market statistics are improving. Nonfarm payrolls report showed 531,000 new jobs in October (vs. 455,000 expected). The US unemployment rate fell to 4.6% from 4.8%.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.05
The initial US jobless claims were 269,000 (forecast 275,000, previous 281,000), the lowest since the pandemic began. Today, the US non-farm payrolls report will also be released.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.04
According to the results of the Fed meeting, the US central bank will begin reducing its quantitative easing program in November and plans to end it in 2022. The Fed continues to believe that high inflation is "temporary" and will probably not require a rapid rise in interest rates. The Fed will begin reducing its monthly Treasury bond purchases by $15 billion a month and may accelerate the reduction in December if inflation continues to rise.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.03
Today, traders' attention is focused on the US Federal Reserve's meeting (FOMC). Analysts expect the US central bank to announce the reduction of the quantitative easing (QE) program officially. The volatility of currency pairs with the US dollar will sharply increase.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.02
The US Manufacturing PMI was 60.8 (above the forecast of 60.4) but below the previous month's value of 61.1. On the one hand, there is a slowdown in activity in the manufacturing sector of the economy. On the other hand, the PMI index steadily holds above its average value over the last year, indicating sustainability.
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The Forecast – 2021.11.01
In September, the US personal income decreased by 1%, while it was expected to drop by 0.3%, and personal spending increased by 0.6%, as expected. Monetary policy in the US and other countries is in focus this week, with the Federal Reserve expected to announce a cut in stimulus.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.29
The US GDP growth was 2%, below the 2.6% forecast, but the US initial jobless claims decreased to 281,000 (previous 291,000), the lowest number in 19 months.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.28
A poll among economists shows that central banks are cutting stimulus measures too quickly, and supply chain disruption is a major global economic threat. Global growth will decrease to 4.5% in 2022, compared with 5.9% in 2021.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.27
The US consumer confidence increased to 113.8 in October (expected 108.3, previous 109.8). New home sales in the US jumped by 14% in September, with expectations of a 2.7% increase. This is a good sign of a recovery in the real estate market.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.26
Ahead of central bank meetings in Europe, Japan, and Canada, the dollar index slightly increased, suggesting that investors are now partly reallocating to the dollar amid rising risks. Australia's quarterly inflation data, which will be published on Wednesday, also adds caution as high inflation could lead to a change in QE from the Reserve Bank of Australia.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.25
The US Inflation Expectations index has reached a one-year high. Some economists believe that the Fed has not fully assessed inflationary pressures, and the next CPI reports could be shocking.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.22
The US initial jobless claims fell to 290,000 (forecast 297,000, previous 293,000). The labor market situation continues to improve. The US Federal Reserve's business activity index in Philadelphia is 23.8 (forecast 25, previous 30.7).
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The Forecast – 2021.10.21
According to Eurostat, annual inflation in the Eurozone accelerated to 3.4% in September, the highest level since September 2008. In Germany, the producer price index, which shows the inflation rate among businesses, increased to a record level of 8.6%.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.20
The number of new building permits in the US fell by 1.6% to 1.555 million. Analysts expected an increase to 1.62 million. The real estate market has also begun to slow down, primarily due to high inflation.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.19
The US industrial production declined by 1.3% in September, while it was expected to rise 0.2%. Investors are increasingly worried about inflation, supply chain problems, and the start of the Fed's monetary policy cut.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.18
In September, US retail sales increased by 0.7%, while a 0.2% decrease was expected. The US industrial production data will be released today, with its growth will likely be held back by supply issues.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.15
The number of new jobless claims in the US fell to its lowest level since the start of the pandemic. During the previous week, the number of applications amounted to 293,000, whereas the experts expected it to be 320,000. The US Central Bank almost reached its economic goals and soon may start to slowly reduce the pace of its monthly asset purchase program.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.14
The US Consumer Price Index increased to 5.4% (expected - 5.3%), the largest annual gain since 2008. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, remained at 4% level.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.13
Fed members Bullard and Bostick support the start of QE program’s cuts in November. At the same time, the Fed expects the unemployment rate to return to pre-pandemic levels next spring. Important inflation data will be released today in the US and Germany, as well as the Fed's (FOMC) monetary policy records are expected to be published.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.12
Rising energy prices could lead to higher inflation in the coming months and limit consumer spending on products and services. Ultimately, this might slow the US economic recovery to the point of recession.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.11
Friday's weaker-than-expected jobs report for September has not changed analysts' expectations that the Fed might start cutting back on stimulus by the end of the year. The US economy added only 194,000 jobs in September. Yet, the data revision for the previous months showed that the economy had restored half the job deficit compared to pre-pandemic levels.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.08
The initial jobless claims in the US declined last week. The number of new applications for the week was 326,000 (forecast 348,000). This is the lowest quarterly figure since 1997. Last week it was 350,000. The Labor Market Department will release the most important report on Nonfarm Payrolls today.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.07
Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has set a very low bar for the labor market in terms of what the Fed needs to see moving forward. Therefore, the QE program cut at the November meeting is likely to be a done deal.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.06
The dollar index is strengthening again while investors partially shift their money into cash as the US Federal Reserve will begin asset cuts in 2021 and raise interest rates in 2022. The US jobs report, including nonfarm payrolls, is crucial to the Fed's asset reduction schedule.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.05
The 10-year US Treasury bond yield reached 1.56% last week, the highest level since June, as investors worried about inflationary pressures and tighter monetary policy. The dollar index significantly strengthened last week but lost some ground yesterday, which led to a temporary rise in major currencies against the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.04
Supply chain problems put pressure on manufacturing activity in Europe and China, while US industrial production unexpectedly increased at the end of the week.
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The Forecast – 2021.10.01
Initial jobless claims in the US unexpectedly increased last week. The number of new jobless claims for the week was 362,000. 335,000 had been expected. US GDP increased to 6.7% from 6.6%.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.30
The dollar increased to its highest level against other currencies in almost a year, despite a possible US default and the prospect of more budget cuts than originally planned. But according to preliminary information, Democratic leaders reached an agreement on a vote on the debt limit.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.29
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell says that the US economy is still very far from reaching maximum employment. At the same time, Central Bank officials believe that the limit for raising the key rate is much higher than the limit for starting to reduce bond purchases. In other words, the Fed will reduce the volume of QE first, and only then will raise the interest rate.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.28
FOMC member Williams said yesterday that Fed officials would gather additional data before the November meeting and make a decision on cutting the QE. No specific dates were given again, but analysts at leading banks believe that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will announce the cutting of QE at the next Fed meeting in early November, but "cutting" will be gradual and completed by the middle of next year.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.27
The euro has practically not changed, ignoring the election of a new chancellor in Germany. The Japanese yen fell to its lowest level in three months on Monday, while the Australian dollar continued to recover after almost a monthly minimum. US government bond yields increased to their highest level since early July in anticipation of tighter US monetary policy, while the dollar index was trading in the middle of its range last week.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.24
The US jobless claims unexpectedly increased. The number of claims was 351K against a forecast of 320K. It isn’t good data for the Fed, which expects better labor market figures to start cutting the QE program and reducing the inflationary pressures on the economy.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.23
At yesterday's Fed meeting, Jerome Powell said that the US central bank plans to start cutting the QE program soon, but nothing was said about specific dates. However, the Rate Settlement Committee revised the statement after the meeting and indicated that the Fed might start cutting its monthly asset purchases by $120 billion as early as its next meeting on November 2-3. An interest rate hike is likely to happen in the second half of 2022.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.22
Meetings of the central banks of Japan and the USA are expected today. Amid the sell-off in global stock markets on Friday and Monday, the dollar and the Japanese yen were safe haven currencies for investors. Economists believe that Jerome Powell will give a hint about the QE program cuts today, with an official announcement to be made in November.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.21
US and European stock indices fell to four-month and two-month lows due to concerns about China's real estate sector and the upcoming Fed meeting. Investors and hedge funds are selling off their portfolios and go to cash, which is usually an American dollar. This is one of the main reasons why major currencies are down against the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.20
According to a survey of Bloomberg economists, the Fed is likely to hint at its meeting this week that they will reduce monthly asset purchases and make an official statement in November but will keep interest rates near zero level until 2022. This fundamental picture will play in favor of a stronger dollar index against the major currencies.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.17
Despite a slight increase in initial jobless claims, strong US retail sales data strengthened the dollar index and gave even more reason to believe that the Federal Reserve will announce the start of QE cuts at its meeting on September 22.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.16
The US industrial production increased to pre-pandemic levels, indicating a further economic recovery. All figures indicate that the US economy is in a good position, and it doesn’t make sense for the Federal Reserve to maintain the stimulus program in such volumes. Therefore, there is a high probability that the Fed will announce a gradual cutting of the QE program starting from November at the meeting on September 22 (this year).
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The Forecast – 2021.09.15
On Tuesday, the US Labor Department reported that the consumer price index increased by 0.3% (previous – 0.5%), with the inflation at 5.3% on a year-on-year basis. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by only 0.1%. All this indicates that inflation growth is slowing down in the US.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.14
Despite the increase in the number of delta strain cases in the United States, the dollar index increased to a two-week maximum against the background of new expectations that the Federal reserve system will begin to reduce the quantitative easing (QE) program in the next quarter. The inflation data will be released in the United States today. Volatility will be higher than usual.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.13
The US producer price index increased by 0.7% in August. On an annualized basis, the index added 8.3% – the biggest increase since 2010. The index tracks changes in the selling prices producers receive for their products and is another economic indicator of inflation used by the Federal Reserve to adjust monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.10
In the US, the number of initial jobless claims fell to an 18-month low (current – 310,000, previous – 345,000). This statistic dispelled fears of slowing economic recovery but also increased other concerns that the Fed will start to reduce the QE program as early as in November this year.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.09
John Williams, a representative of the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York, said that the labor market needs significant progress to achieve the maximum goal of the Central Bank. However, he added that it might be appropriate for the Federal Reserve to start cutting the QE program later this year if the economic situation continues to improve.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.08
Concerns about the slowdown of economic recovery are growing in the world, which has a negative impact on major indices in the United States, Europe, and Asia. In the US, unemployment payments will end soon, which could significantly impact economic progress.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.07
Against the background of poor labor market statistics, which were published on Friday, economists are confident that the Federal Reserve will definitely not revise the quantitative easing program until November. But it’s not the best idea to delay this since the US risks being at the end of the country's list when moving to a new phase of economic development.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.06
The US Non-Farm Payrolls statistics strongly disappointed economists. Only 235,000 jobs were added to the US economy in August (vs. 733,000 expected). This signifies a very sharp slowdown in the labor market. The main reason is the increase in the number of Delta strain cases. This fundamental picture plays in the favor of the dollar index decline and the strengthening of the major currency pairs against the US dollar. It’s a Bank Holiday in the United States and Canada today, and taking into account the lack of important events during the European session, there will be low volatility today.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.03
Initial jobless claims decreased to 340,000 in the US – the lowest level since March 2020. Investors are now focusing on the nonfarm payrolls data. Economists expect the number of workers to increase by 720,000 a month and the unemployment rate to fall from 5.4% to 5.2%. If the data is better than these expectations, the dollar index might rise significantly.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.02
The national employment report from ADP showed that the еmployment in the US' private sector increased by 374,000 in August compared to 326,000 in July, which is much less than the forecast of 613,000. Such statistics have negatively affected the dollar index.
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The Forecast – 2021.09.01
US CB Consumer Confidence index reached a six-month low, and the inflation rate in the eurozone increased to a ten-year high. Considering this news, the dollar index slightly strengthened, which caused corrective movements on currency pairs against the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.31
The dollar index has stabilized a bit, but is still trading near its two-week low. There is a high probability that the situation will not change significantly until the next Fed meeting, which will be held on September 22. The excess liquidity in the financial system will lead to further weakening of the dollar. That's why the US dollar will be losing its positions against other currencies. The only thing that can prevent this is strong US labor market data report that will be released at the end of this week.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.30
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech became the main event of the last week following the annual Symposium in Jackson Hole. Mr. Powell said that as long as the labor market remains substantially sluggish with the problematic pandemic situation, the tightening of the monetary policy could be a mistake. In other words, the soft monetary policy remains the same. Considering this news, the dollar index began to lose its position, which led to the strengthening of other currency pairs against the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.27
The number of initial jobless claims in the US slightly increased to 353,000 from 349,000 last week. But these figures are still at pre-crisis levels, indicating a stable labor market situation. US GDP year-on-year increased to 6.6% (previous 6.5%), although this is below economists' expectations of 6.7%. The head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will give a speech today following the symposium in Jackson Hole. This verbal intervention may increase the volatility in the financial markets.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.26
The annual meeting of the Federal Reserve will begin today in Jackson Hole. Analysts believe that the Fed may postpone cutting the QE program because of the global rise of Delta cases. Goldman Sachs experts have raised the odds of a stimulus cut announcement in November to 45% from its previous forecast of 25% and lowered the December chance from 55% to 35%. But a lot will depend on whether the cutting happens this year or next. If the program is cut this year, investors can forget about the growth of the stock market until the end of the year.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.25
The dollar index is trading near a one-week low. After US regulators fully approved the COVID-19 vaccine, fears that a contagious version of Delta could disrupt the economic recovery are easing. Also, more investors are now inclined to believe that the head of the Fed, Jerome Powell, will not announce a stimulus cut in Jackson Hole since the representatives of the Fed have very different points of view regarding this issue, and Mr. Powell will not take on additional responsibility.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.24
Economic activity in the US manufacturing and service sectors decreased in August. The decline was worse than economists had expected. The main reason for the slowdown was delays in the supply chain, which reached record levels. The dollar index demonstrated yesterday the largest one-day drop since May.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.23
The increase in COVID-19 cases prompted the Federal Reserve to move its annual symposium in Jackson Hole to an online format, which had a negative impact on the dollar index and called into question a broader assessment of the economic impact of the Delta strain. The US dollar rebounded from Friday's nine-month high at the opening of trading on Monday.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.20
US jobless claims fell to a pandemic low of 348,000 (previous - 377,000), indicating a recovery in the labor market. On the one hand, this is very good for the economy and the dollar index. On the other hand, the labor market recovery brings the moment when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce the QE program, which will cause massive sales in the financial markets.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.19
The FOMC minutes of the July meeting suggest that the reduction of the QE program is already possible this year. September is just around the corner, so the labor market still needs to improve its data before the central bank begins cutting stimulus measures. Investors' attention is now focused on the annual economic symposium that will take place next week, where Jerome Powell will disclose the details about the future plans of the Fed.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.18
US retail sales decreased by 1.1% in July, while the core retail sales index decreased by 0.4%. Both indicators did not meet the expectations of economists, but despite that the dollar index increased by 0.54%, which, in its turn, triggered sharp movements on currency pairs with the US dollar. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that the central bank does not know how the outbreak of the Delta strain might affect the economy, so the central bank is just watching the situation.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.17
The survey among investment banks showed that the majority of respondents believe that the Federal Reserve will announce a reduction in the QE program at the meeting on September 22. In this case, the reduction of stimulus will begin on December 1, 2021, and will be completed by August 1, 2022, after which the Fed will raise the interest rate by 0.25% at the beginning of 2023. Usually, after the announcement of the QE program reduction, there is a massive sale of assets in the financial markets observed.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.16
Last week, the University of Michigan released its Consumer Confidence Index data. The index decreased from 81.2 to 70.2, indicating growing fears about the future dynamics of the economic recovery. As a result, the dollar index fell sharply on Friday. This week investors will closely follow the publication of FOMC minutes as well as the speech of the Fed chief Jerome Powell.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.13
Last week the number of new jobless claims was 375,000 (previous - 387,000) in the US, in line with economists' forecasts. The labor market is slowly recovering. In July, the US producer price index increased more than expected as high inflation and strong demand driven by the economic recovery continues to damage supply chains. The producer price index increased by 7.8% in the last 12 months; this is the highest value since 2010.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.12
According to the US Labor Department, the consumer price index (CPI) decreased from 0.9% to 0.5%. The core CPI, which does not include food and fuel prices, fell from 0.9% to 0.3%. On a year-on-year basis, the inflation remained at 5.4%, in line with forecasts. Core annual inflation decreased to 4.3% from 4.5%. The US inflation growth is slowing down, easing investors’ fears that the Federal Reserve will reduce its QE program soon. Considering this news, the dollar index decreased by 0.16%.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.11
Today, the US inflation data will be published for the previous month. A rise in inflation could cause strong sales in financial markets, as cutting the Federal Reserve QE program is the only way to suppress inflation. Rising inflation could also heighten expectations of rate hikes next year. If inflation is lower, there is a possibility that everything will remain the same.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.10
In June, the number of job openings increased to a new record level of 10.1 million in the US. It exceeded analysts' expectations and is above the previous value of 9.5 million in May. Yesterday, Federal Reserve official Rafael Bostic said that the US must overcome the economic crisis caused by the epidemic before the central bank will begin to raise interest rates.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.09
The labor market data were better than expected. In July, the US economy introduced 943,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate decreased to 5.4% (previous 5.9%). Considering this news, the dollar index sharply increased, which caused rapid movements on the major currency pairs with the US dollar. Today, traders should focus on the Fed officials' speeches - Raphael Bostic and Thomas Barkin, who are inclined to reduce the QE program.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.06
Initial jobless claims in the US decreased by 14,000 to 385,000. The number of layoffs fell to its lowest level in more than 21 years. This indicates that amid a labor shortage, companies are holding on to their workers by any possible means. Today, the investors' attention will be focused on the Nonfarm Payrolls data release and the unemployment rate in the USA. The good labor data might raise concerns that the Fed will start cutting its QE program soon. Negative labor market data will prompt questions about the economic recovery but will add confidence that the soft monetary policy will remain the same.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.05
According to July's ADP employment report, the number of jobs in the private sector increased by 330,000. This is fewer than last month, but still, it says that there are improvements in the labor market. The ISM Service PMI Index also showed improvement (64.1 vs. 60.1). Considering the positive news, the dollar index jumped by 0.21% yesterday, which led to sharp movements on the currency pairs with the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.04
Volatility in forex currency pairs has increased recently. There are two reasons for that. The first one is that investors don't want to take risks before the release of the main labor market report (non-farm), which will be published later this week. The second reason is the end of summer. Many investors and bankers are taking vacations, so statistically, August is a weak month in terms of activity.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.03
After 14 months of gains, the US ISM manufacturing index figures slowed down in June. Supplier companies announced they are struggling to meet rising demand, as high raw material prices and transportation supply problems are the main reasons that limit production growth potential. There is also a problem with the labor market, as, despite improvements, companies are experiencing serious difficulties attracting and retaining labor.
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The Forecast – 2021.08.02
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) in the US sharply increased in June as the acceleration of the COVID-19 vaccine boosted demand for travel-related services. But it is also connected with the increase in prices, as the inflation rate in the United States has increased greatly. After months of work, US senators introduced a $1 trillion infrastructure bill. The bill will undoubtedly affect economic growth and the labor market.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.30
The US GDP increased to 6.5% last quarter (previous 6.4%) in annual terms. It is significantly lower than 8.5% expected by economists. Weekly jobless claims fell to 400,000 (previous 424,000), but analysts had expected a figure of 382,000. As a result, the dollar index has decreased by 0.45% to a monthly minimum.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.29
The Federal Reserve left monetary policy unchanged: the interest rate remains the same, and the quantitative easing program (QE) is not planned to be reduced for now. At the Fed press conference, Jerome Powell said that the Fed wants to see strong labor market figures in the coming months before it starts cutting QE. The situation in financial markets will remain unchanged at least until the end of August.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.28
The Consumer Confidence CB Index in the US was above analysts' expectations. The annual forecast for consumer inflation declined from 6.7% to 6.6%. Meanwhile, core durable goods orders also increased, despite concerns about the acceleration of inflation. But the dollar index reacted negatively to the news as strong growth of the economy in the third quarter could prompt the Federal Reserve to start cutting the QE program this summer. The Federal Reserve meeting will take place today.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.27
In the US, new home sales unexpectedly fell by 6.6% in June to their lowest level since April 2020. The sharp increase in construction costs in recent months, from the labor force to transport, restrains the construction of houses, which contributes to the rise in prices, while the offer of houses remains limited. A Commerce Department report showed that the average sales price of a new home increased by 6.1% compared with a year earlier.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.26
A lot of important events are expected this week, from the Fed meeting to inflation data in Europe. Investors will be extremely cautious at least until the Fed's policy decision that will be announced on Wednesday. Many economists expect that the central bank may announce a reduction of the QE program; however, during the last speech of Jerome Powell before Congress, it was said that the Fed will not rush to reduce the QE, as the labor market is still very far from the pre-pandemic level. As a result, there is a strong divergence of opinion on what the Fed will do.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.23
A lot was said at yesterday's ECB meeting, but the attendees didn’t go into details. It is clear that the ECB will maintain its soft monetary policy. The ECB eliminates any tightening of monetary policy until there will be a steady rise in inflation in the eurozone. The interest rate remains unchanged. There will be an increased pace of bonds purchases over the next 2 months, and this will put negative pressure on the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.22
Today all investors' attention is focused on the European Central Bank meeting, which will report on the interest rate and give more details on the future stimulus strategy, so volatility on euro pairs will increase. Many economists believe that the ECB's more dovish strategy should strengthen the dollar index in the medium term, leading to an eventual decline in the euro. But in the short term, the European currency may strengthen at the time of news release.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.21
Optimism from investors returned to financial markets, but the situation still remains uncertain. On the one hand, the economies of many countries show good signs of recovery. On the other hand, the new wave of coronavirus can slow down these growth rates and lead to new lockdowns. In the meantime, investors are looking for profitable opportunities in stock markets, as there are practically no investment alternatives today.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.20
Concerns about accelerating inflation in the US and the global rise in cases of the Delta strain of the coronavirus continue to put pressure on financial markets. Last week, the number of new cases in the US increased by 70% compared to the previous week and the number of deaths increased by 26%, with outbreaks occurring mostly in those parts of the country where the vaccination rates are the lowest. Such numbers are very negative for both stock indices and commodity markets.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.19
Concerns about accelerating inflation in the US and the global rise in cases of the Delta strain of the coronavirus continue to put pressure on financial markets. This week is not as eventful as the previous one, so volatility is expected to be low until Wednesday. On Wednesday, the ECB will report on the interest rate and give more details about its updated stimulus strategy, which will cause activity on currency pairs with the euro.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.16
The US labor market is gaining momentum. Jobless claims decreased by 26,000 to 360,000. It’s the lowest number in the last 16 months. The number of repeated claims also fell by 126,000 to 3.2 million. As the labor market is recovering, many states have terminated fringe benefits provided since the start of the crisis.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.15
Yesterday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell pointed out that the economic situation wouldn’t allow the Fed to reduce the QE program in the near future, as 7.5 million jobs were still missing from the previous levels. When asked about the rise in inflation, Mr. Powell said that the price increases were temporary and predetermined by the country's recovery from the pandemic. The Fed promised strong support to complete the US economic recovery this year.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.14
The consumer price index data slightly shocked financial markets. Annual consumer inflation accelerated to 5.4% from 5% (forecast 4.9%), and the core CPI increased to 4.5% from 3.8% (forecast 4.0%). It’s a record for the las 30 years. This data shows that inflation is out of control and revives investor fears that the Fed will tighten monetary policy in the near term. Today, traders will follow what Jerome Powell will say in his speech to Congress.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.13
It was a quiet day in the financial markets yesterday. Today, traders are waiting for the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which is the most important inflation parameter. Analysts believe that the index will be lower than last month, but the volatility will significantly increase during the release.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.12
Many important events are scheduled for this week. Central bank meetings will be held in Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Korea. No surprises are expected, but the meetings will take place at a time of growing uncertainty due to increased cases of Delta strain of COVID-19. New inflation data will be released in the United States, United Kingdom, and Eurozone. Investors will watch China's GDP data for the second quarter. Monday will be quiet, but volatility will gradually increase later this week.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.09
The Federal Reserve will reduce its quantitative easing (QE) program on January 1, 2022. But the situation in the US labor market is starting to worry investors again. The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly increased last week to 373,000, indicating that the labor market recovery from the pandemic remains fragile. There are also concerns that global economic growth will slow down due to the rapid spread of the Delta strain.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.08
The FOMC minutes indicate that the Federal Reserve will strive to cut the asset purchase program (reduction of QE) this year. The dollar index rushed upwards in light of this news, making other currencies fall.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.07
Oil prices are out of control. It negatively affects not only commodity currencies but also major currency pairs because oil prices are quoted in US dollars, and the United States is the largest exporter of fuel. Today, traders and investors are waiting for the FOMC minutes to show if the Fed will continue with its soft monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.06
Yesterday, the volatility in the Forex market remained low. The macrostatistics from Australia, Europe, and the USA are expected today, so the market will be volatile. Also, investors are waiting for the FOMC minutes, which will be published on Wednesday this week. The New Zealand dollar is rising as a strong business survey has moved expectations for a rate hike to November. The Australian central bank left the interest rate unchanged at 0.1%.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.05
Yesterday, the United States celebrated its 245th Independence Day. At the opening party at the White House, Biden said, “This year, the Fourth of July is a day of special celebration for we are emerging from the darkness of ... a year of pandemic and isolation, a year of pain, fear and heartbreaking loss”. Today is a bank holiday in the US, so volatility in the Forex market will be low.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.02
Today all investors' attention is focused on the Non-Farm Payrolls report. Positive labor market data can be perceived ambiguously. On the one hand, if the report is too good, investors may start selling their portfolios on the Fed's stimulus cuts expectations. On the other hand, the unemployment rate has to be 2 million new jobs every month (with 700,000 planned) to reach pre-crisis levels. However, the market does not believe in such optimism as the number of new jobless claims turned out higher than expected yesterday.
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The Forecast – 2021.07.01
Preliminary employment data from ADP showed that the US private sector added 692,000 jobs in June, 92,000 more than economists had expected. Investors are now waiting for Non Farm Payrolls data from the government to gauge the labor market recovery. The previous figure was 559,000.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.30
The dollar index rose slightly, negatively affecting major currency pairs, where the dollar is a quoted currency. Trading activity is below average now, as investors are waiting for US employment data. The rapid spread of a new strain of the virus in Asian countries is causing concerns in financial markets.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.29
Major Forex currency pairs are showing weak activity. The dollar index is fluctuating below a two-month high, with investors unwilling to take risks ahead of ADP Non Farm data at the end of the week. А report on the consumer price index in Europe may provoke traders to be more active tomorrow.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.28
Trading activity will be low until the middle of the week. Investors are now waiting for the ADP Nonfarm Payrolls labor market data to be released on Friday. But based on current trends, US employment remains extremely low compared to pre-coronavirus levels. For the US Federal Reserve to begin cutting the stimulus, monthly employment growth would need to be about 2 million people, with analysts forecasting 700,000-800,000.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.25
Yesterday, the US S&P 500 index set a new all-time high due to the positive US labor market data. The number of jobless claims fell over the past week, indicating a steady economic recovery.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.24
June manufacturing PMIs in the US and Europe show economic recovery. As long as such global monetary policy persists, the dollar index will weaken, while major currencies will strengthen against the dollar. This situation will last at least until August.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.23
There were no harsh statements in Jerome Powell's speech in the US Congress. The head of the Fed assures that the regulator will not rush to tighten monetary policy, as the labor market data is still very weak. As soon as the country's unemployment rate starts to decline sharply, the Fed will open the issue of curtailing stimulus.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.22
The dollar index started to decrease, which triggered corrective movements on the major currency pairs. The Fed chief Jerome Powell’s speech is expected by the traders today. He will talk about the further actions of the central bank. This verbal intervention may provoke an increase in volatility.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.21
The situation with the main currency pairs is mixed. On the one hand, the Federal Reserve has inflation under control and is ready to respond quickly to significant changes in inflation indicators. On the other hand, the volume of dollar liquidity in the financial system remains high and will continue to grow, which is a negative factor for the USD index. This is why analysts believe that the strengthening of the US currency is temporary.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.18
The dollar index continues to rise. But analysts are confident that the current strengthening is temporary, as the growth of the US dollar is primarily due to the fact that the Fed raised the IOER rates (Interest Rate on Excess Reserves) in order to prevent negative yields in the debt market. The rate hike led to a sharp rise in treasuries and the dollar index, but this effect, according to experts, will not last more than 1-2 weeks.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.17
Yesterday's US Federal Reserve meeting had a significant impact on the dynamics of Forex currency pairs. The Fed officials intend to raise the interest rate in 2023 but might do it earlier if inflation continues to rise. The Fed will discuss the possibility of cutting the bond-buying program at the next meeting. However, the interest rate and stimulus remain unchanged for now. The dollar index jumped up sharply on this news, provoking significant changes in the currency pairs.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.16
The Fed will announce the interest rate and share the economic outlook at the FOMC meeting today. The market reaction to this news is usually huge, so traders should be careful. At the end of the trading day, Jerome Powell will make an official statement. His comments will reflect the Fed's further monetary policy plans.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.15
Financial markets have taken a wait-and-see position again. Despite the analysts’ confidence that the Fed will not take any action on monetary policy, investors are not in a hurry to open new trades before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday this week.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.14
Today, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson will decide whether or not to postpone the final stage of lockdown lifting scheduled for later this month. If there is no сhange, the British pound can strengthen amid investor expectations for an improved economic climate in the UK.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.11
Inflation growth was slightly higher than expected – 5.0% compared to the forecasted 4.7% on a year-on-year basis. But in monthly terms, the growth rate slowed down, which positively affected the markets. As a result, the Fed is unlikely to change monetary policy at the next FOMC meeting.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.10
Today all investors' and traders' attention is focused on the ECB interest rate report and US inflation data. Increasing inflation may provoke the Fed to think about changing its monetary policy. Experts believe CPI data will show inflation rising from 4.2% to 4.7% in annual terms.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.09
The US central bank says rising inflation will not threaten price stability this quarter, but investors are concerned that Thursday's CPI data will show inflation acceleration.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.08
On Sunday, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen mentioned a possible increase in interest rates to curb inflation. Talks of a temporary rise in inflation have shifted to suggestions that "inflation is not that high." Investor fears are growing, with Thursday's inflation data (consumer price index) being a key factor.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.07
Positive nonfarm payroll data have eased investor fears about inflation, but the risk of an early stimulus cut remains high. This week, investors will focus mainly on the consumer price index, which is the most important indicator of inflation.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.04
Positive labor market statistics, accelerating US economic growth, and statements by US Federal Reserve officials about selling corporate bonds have raised investor fears that the Fed could start reducing stimulus measures as early as its next meeting on June 15.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.03
While the US dollar remains in a weak position, the G7 countries plan to meet in London later this week to discuss Washington's proposal for a minimum global corporate tax of at least 15%.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.02
Due to the rapid pace of economic recovery in the US, China, and Western Europe, investors remain concerned that central banks will pare back their stimulus measures earlier than expected.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.02
Due to the rapid pace of economic recovery in the US, China, and Western Europe, investors remain concerned that central banks will pare back their stimulus measures earlier than expected.
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The Forecast – 2021.06.01
At the end of this week, there will be a meeting of the G7 representatives in London. The main topic of the meeting is to ensure the sustainability of the financial system as the economy is recovering from the pandemic. At the moment, the G7 heads of central banks promise to maintain a stimulative policy this year.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.31
Friday's release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data, which the Federal Reserve uses as a preliminary indicator of inflation, showed that inflation rose above the 3% mark. With monetary policy remaining soft, this level of inflation is negative for the dollar index and positive for the major currency pairs against the US dollar, especially the euro and the British pound.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.28
The British pound is rising on expectations of an interest rate hike, while the dollar is waiting for the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is a preliminary indicator of inflation.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.27
The US macro statistics on GDP change for the quarter will be released today, which is the key indicator of the economy's health. The analysts expect a small gain in GDP, which may have a temporary positive effect on the dollar index.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.26
New Zealand's currency jumped after the central bank hinted at a potential interest rate hike by September next year. At the moment, three central banks are ready to tighten monetary policy: Canada, Norway and New Zealand.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.25
COVID-19 vaccination is accelerating in Europe. This allows many countries to reduce pandemic restrictions, which will undoubtedly lead to increased consumption and general economic growth.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.24
Considering the maintenance of the Fed's monetary policy and the excess of dollar activity in the US financial system, it is difficult to find a reason for the dollar index to strengthen in the near future. This situation plays in favor of the euro and other major currencies against the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.21
After the Fed meeting on Wednesday, it became clear that there would be no sharp changes in monetary policy until the end of the year. So the dollar index will continue to decline for some time, which will result in the strengthening of the major currencies against the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.20
Yesterday, at the Fed meeting, it was announced that the regulator would be reducing the stimulus program (QE) during the next 3 quarters. It means that the US is likely to stop printing money by the end of the year. It may lead to an interest rate increase.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.19
The Fed FOMC meeting minutes will be released today. Any signs of a change in monetary policy may lead to trend reversals in currency pairs with the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.18
There is an economic recovery in Europe. As a result, the major European currencies strengthen against the dollar. However, the Indian strain of coronavirus can prevent the weakening of the lockdown.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.17
Because of the weakness of the US currency, major currency pairs continue to strengthen against the dollar. The euro and the British pound are leading the growth.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.14
The US Federal Reserve is not going to take any steps on monetary policy because it believes that the rise in inflation is temporary. That is the green light for the indices and the euro.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.13
The Labor Department report confirmed fears of accelerating inflation.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.12
Rising inflationary expectations put pressure on the dollar index.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.11
The US Treasury Department will refund approximately $47.7 billion of privately-held Treasury notes and bonds. It could make currencies strengthen against the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.10
Low volatility is expected today, as no important events are planned.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.07
Important macroeconomic statistics will be released in the USA and Canada today, so traders should be especially careful. Volatility in the American session will be higher than usual.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.06
The Bank of England will announce the Interest Rate Decision today. Same as in the US, no changes are planned in monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.05
Yesterday's drop in U.S. indices did not significantly affect the major currency pairs. On Tuesday, volatility in the Forex market was lower than usual.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.04
Today at the Asian session, the Central Bank of Australia reported on the interest rate change. As analysts expected, the rate remained at a level of 0.1%.
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The Forecast – 2021.05.03
Today, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to speak, and his statements have a strong impact on the behavior and volatility of the dollar index and major stock indices.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.30
Negative macroeconomic statistics are expected today for German and Europe GDP, as most small and medium-sized companies are unable to fully function due to the strict lockdown.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.29
The Federal Reserve System has left the interest rate unchanged, but with the projected GDP growth, there are signs that the stimulus may decrease this year.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.28
Today investors will be closely watching the FOMC Interest Rate meeting. The Federal Reserve is not planning to deviate from its strategy, so investors should not expect any significant changes in monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.27
Today, investors expect a positive release of macroeconomic statistics on Consumer Confidence, but there are concerns about the U.S. currency optimism, as the U.S.Treasury plans to redeem $15 billion of bonds today.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.26
No excessive activity is expected in the market today. With a high probability the markets will take a wait-and-see attitude until the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, so intraday trading will be the most preferable strategy in the coming days.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.23
Today, investors are waiting for PMI data in the manufacturing sector in the US and Germany. Analysts expect positive news, which is thought unlikely to have a strong impact on the euro or the dollar dynamics since market participants focus on the upcoming Fed meeting.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.22
On Thursday, the dollar continued to trade against most major currencies near multi-week lows as declining US Treasury yields reduced the dollar's profit margin. The euro traded without significant changes in anticipation of today's publication of the European Central Bank decisions following the scheduled meeting. Most analysts suggest that any positive comments on the EU's economic outlook or hints from the Central Bank of reducing bond purchases could trigger a rise in the European currency.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.21
Yesterday, the dollar strengthened amid declining stock prices in the major US stock exchanges due to new coronavirus outbreaks in India and Canada. The news had a negative impact on the positive sentiment of most market participants and reduced the likelihood of a rapid global economic recovery.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.20
The dollar fell to a fresh low against major currencies as the euro led the rally amid improving forecasts on the regional vaccination program. The euro support was likely related to the announcement that the European Union has received an additional 100 million COVID-19 vaccine doses from BioNTech and Pfizer. The dollar has already lost momentum as the US bonds yield has declined from its 14-month peak last month, moderating the attractiveness of dollar yields.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.19
On Monday, the dollar was trading near a one-month low against most other major currencies. The US Treasury yields have also been near their lows for the past five weeks since the US Federal Reserve reaffirmed that any spike in inflation wouldn’t last long.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.16
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said that the US economy is still far from "substantial progress," meeting the central bank's 2% inflation target and the Fed's required employment rate. For this reason, Ms. Daly warned against early talks on reducing the regulator’s monetary support. Her remarks backed Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s statements that Fed officials would not pay much attention to short-term price increases amid the ongoing labor market downturn.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.15
On Wednesday, in the absence of important economic data, the dollar index continued to decline, and traders focused on the credit market. German Bonds continued to rise versus US T-Note. The yield spread has reached -189%, showing the best results in the last two weeks. This factor supported the European currency against the US dollar. Also, the sharp rise in oil prices supported commodity currencies.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.14
On Tuesday, the dollar index continued to decline amid strong economic performance in Europe. The ZEW Index stays consistently above 70, while investor expectations continue to rise. In this light, the yield spread between the American T-Note and German Bonds rose to -192%, which supported the bulls in the euro against the dollar. Also, February manufacturing figures unexpectedly rose to 1.3%, while economists' forecast was 0.5%. This factor helped to stop sterling's steep dive.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.13
On Monday, the ECB and the US Federal Reserve released data on the change in assets on their balance sheets. The European Central Bank's index fell by €10.91 billion over the past week, while the Federal Reserve increased the figure by $19.89 billion. Thus, the Fed prints money more actively than the ECB, which negatively affects the dollar. The commodity market remains in demand for metals and energy, which will have a negative impact on the value of the dollar since raw materials are quoted in the US currency. Investors are waiting for the rapid growth of the global economy in the summer and are playing out this trend in advance by purchasing exchange commodities.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.12
On Friday, the dollar index continued to remain under pressure amid statements by Janet Yellen and Jerome Powell, who reaffirmed their commitment to soft monetary policy. The Minister of Finance indicated that the need to maintain low interest rates would be required in the upcoming years. After that, the head of the Fed announced the possibility of the monetary regulator to use the instruments that would put pressure on inflation without changing monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.09
On Thursday, the dollar index declined in light of Jerome Powell’s comments and labor market data. The head of the Fed says that the monetary regulator has tools to combat high inflation, and they will be applied if necessary. This statement underlined the central bank's commitment to keeping interest rates low. Labor market data showed volatility. Recent jobless claims rose to 744K, while the forecast was 680K.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.08
Quiet trading was observed on Wednesday. The dollar index rose slightly mainly due to the decline in commodity currencies and the sterling. The British currency fell sharply amid reports of problems with the AstraZeneca vaccine. Blood clots after its use continue to be reported, jeopardizing the drug's export and vaccination program to countries that depend on it, including the UK. The final PMI data from IHS Markit disappointed traders a little. The service sector index was below preliminary estimates in the UK and Italy. France, Italy, and Spain are still showing negative dynamics in this sector.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.07
On Tuesday, the yield on 2-year US bonds continued to fall, and the dollar index declined after the Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen’s statements. The European currency accelerated growth on the back of positive data from Sentix. According to the company's research, the index of investors' expectations for the economic recovery in the Eurozone reached a record level of 34.8. The current situation index jumped to levels last seen before the pandemic. The British currency came under pressure after Boris Johnson's messages about a delay in air travel resumption due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.06
On Monday, the dollar index fell sharply amid messages from US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen about the need to adhere to a soft monetary policy in the next few years. In her opinion, the $1.9 trillion bill signed last month to combat the US pandemic will not cause inflationary pressures. Also, the Central Bank of China has decided to cap lending to 2020 levels. It caused a drop in Asian stock indices, a rise in the yen, and additional pressure on the US dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.05
Important data on the US labor market was released on Friday. NFP numbers came out very high at 916,000, well above the median of 660K. The change in the unemployment rate was in line with the forecast of 6.0 %. In this light, the US dollar rose slightly. Low volatility is due to lower trading volumes ahead of the holiday weekend. Today the market will assess the state of the service sector in the United States, and the volatility in the foreign exchange market may gradually increase.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.02
On Thursday, the dollar index fell in light of positive data on the manufacturing sector in Europe. Eurozone PMI rose to 62.5 in March, according to IHS Markit. Preliminary data indicated a rise to 62.4. Later in the American session, a similar index for the US from ISM was published. The US manufacturing sector grew to 64.7, the highest since December 1983. But the market showed little reaction to the data, as there was a decline in trade volumes ahead of the holiday weekend. Markets in the three main financial regions of the US, the Eurozone, and the UK will be partially closed today. So, a decrease in volatility can be observed.
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Hot News – 2021.04.01
The market expects positive data from the US labor market. Job marketplace forecast is 647,000.
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The Forecast – 2021.04.01
On Wednesday, the dollar index slowed growth and even closed in the red in the light of slightly lower-than-expected ADP data. According to the institute’s research released on Wednesday, the workforce increased by 517,000 in March, and the February figures were revised to 176,000. The median forecast of economists was 550,000. However, it is still a significant hiring rate. Leisure and hospitality accounted for the bulk of the growth, indicating a faster recovery in the labor market. Small and medium-sized businesses showed higher employment growth than large companies in March.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.31
On Tuesday, the dollar index rose the most in the past five trading days, as optimism about the US labor market increased. The NFP forecast rose even more to 680,000 after the publication of CBI data. Consumer confidence in the US has reached an annual high in March. According to a Tuesday’s report, the Conference Board Index rose to 109.7, compared to 90.4 in February. It was the sharpest monthly gain in nearly 18 years and beat the most optimistic forecasts in the economists’ survey. In this light, American Treasuries have grown above 1.73%, and the dollar continues to grow.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.30
On Monday, the dollar index resumed its growth amid positive expectations for the labor market data. After the announcement of declining initial jobless claims and rising consumer confidence, the median NFP forecast was 643,000 jobs, and the unemployment rate was 0.2% lower. In this light, the yield of American Treasuries reached 1.74%, and their spread with German and British bonds rose to new record levels, which supported the dollar.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.29
On Friday, the dollar index fell slightly amid a slowdown in inflation. The price index for the Fed surprised the market a little. The core PCE price index declined by 0.1% to 1.4% on an annualized basis, which slightly eased worries over an imminent monetary tightening. However, other indicators are positive, allowing the dollar to remain bullish. Consumer sentiment indices continue to rise, indicating a recovery in the labor market.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.26
On Thursday, the US GDP data was released. The final result was 0.2% higher and amounted to 4.3%, which allowed the dollar index to continue to grow and renew the highs of March 9. In addition, the decline in the number of initial jobless claims strengthened the position of the US dollar. The exception in the foreign exchange market was the sterling, which rose against the dollar amid the start of trade negotiations between the EU and the UK. The market sees this as the beginning of a warming relationship between the two sides.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.25
The main Wednesday event was the release of PMI data from IHS Markit. According to preliminary data, Germany’s production rose at a record pace in March, which led to the European economy’s recovery. Purchasing managers' indices from the two largest Eurozone economies – Germany and France – surpassed economists' estimates as orders soared and confidence that quarantine measures would eventually end boosted hiring. In Germany, the survey results are "hinting at the prospect of a better-than-expected economic performance in the first quarter," said Phil Smith, an IHS Markit economist.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.24
As a quick resumption of global economic growth came into question again, market sentiment changed. Germany, France, and Italy have expanded restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic, while other countries are also seeing a sharp increase in the number of infected. The head of the World Health Organization called the recent rise in mortality and morbidity "truly worrying trends." Also, the US National Institute for Infectious Diseases questioned the effectiveness of the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which led to an even more significant fall in stock prices and, as a result, a rise in the dollar across the entire spectrum of the market.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.23
On Monday, in the absence of important macroeconomic news, the market stayed calm. The dollar index closed the gap formed at the opening of this week’s trading. The market is still ignoring new measures to prevent the spread of coronavirus in Germany. According to chancellor Angela Merkel’s plan, all stores will be closed for five days from April 1, except for grocery stores, which will open on April 3. People will be asked to stay at home, private meetings will be limited to one household and a maximum of five people, and public meetings will be prohibited.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.22
On Monday, at the opening of the Asian session, a small gap was observed. European currencies declined slightly against the dollar due to a new round of tensions between the EU and the UK. The reason was the supply of the vaccine from AstraZeneca, which, according to the European Union, hadn’t been conducted in accordance with the contracts. In this light, the EU warned that vaccines and ingredients produced in European factories would be reserved for local supplies. Meanwhile, hopes for overseas vacations are fading further, and according to the UK minister, summer holidays overseas are "extremely unlikely" this year.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.19
On Thursday, the dollar index rose in light of falling stock indices and oil prices. The market overestimated the global economic recovery after starting new quarantine measures in France, causing oil to lose about 10% from March highs. Also, the high-level talks between the United States and China have led nowhere so far. So the trade war may resume after the change of the US president. Investors began to prepare for Black Friday after the Nasdaq 100 plummeted 3.1% and the S&P 500 lost 1.5%.
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Hot News – 2021.03.18
Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged and lowers its forecast for economic growth.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.18
On Wednesday, the dollar index fell after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that there was no need to change monetary policy direction in conditions of rising government bond yields. The yield on 2-year US bonds fell to 0.13%. At the same time, the forecast for economic growth was raised. Inflation is expected to rise by 2.4%, the GDP by 6.4%. The unemployment rate will drop to 4.5% this year. The dollar index is still holding above the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart, indicating an upward bias in the long term.
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Hot News – 2021.03.17
Federal Reserve officials have kept near-zero interest rates unchanged and expect the first rise to take place no earlier than in 2023, despite the improved economic forecasts.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.17
Quiet trading was observed on Tuesday amid expectations of the Fed meeting results. The dollar index rose slightly, but in the American session returned to the level of the day after the publication of the US retail trade report. According to statistics, total retail sales decreased by 3.0% in February, while the control group’s data decreased even more by 3.5%. However, these negative data were offset by the revision of the January indicators. In January, the retail volume amounted to 7.6%, while a month ago, the preliminary calculation showed 5.3%.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.16
Low volatility was observed on Monday due to the absence of an important news background. The dollar index continued to trade in Friday's range, holding above the moving averages on the daily chart. In the American session today, a slight increase in volatility can be expected after the publication of data on retail sales in the United States. The average median forecast indicates a decline in buying activity in February. But given the University of Michigan data, retail sales could be a pleasant surprise for traders.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.15
Quiet trading was observed on Friday. The dollar index rose slightly in light of positive data from the University of Michigan. The report has shown the highest growth in the consumer sentiment index since April last year. Also, manufacturing prices data was released. Manufacturing inflation rose 1% in February to 2.7%, allowing US Treasury yields to gain a foothold above 1.60%.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.12
On Thursday, the European Central Bank announced the results of its two-day meeting. Despite the importance of the event, the volatility in the euro remained low. The monetary regulator has promised to expand the asset purchase program in the next three months under the PEPP program. However, it doesn’t involve an increase in the total volume of 1.85 trillion euros. In the future, monthly purchase volume will be reduced. In fact, the ECB did not make any changes to the program, and in this light, the euro continued its corrective growth.
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Hot News – 2021.03.11
The ECB will increase the volume of asset purchases in order to influence the growth of bond yields.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.11
On Wednesday, the main event of the day was the publication of the US inflation data. A report from the National Bureau of Statistics indicated that the core consumer price index, which excluded food and energy prices, rose by 0.1% from a month earlier. The annual index rose by only 1.3%, 0.1% less than expected. The general consumer price index rose by 0.4% month-on-month and 1.7% year-on-year. All numbers correspond to market expectations, against which the dollar index continued its corrective pullback.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.10
On Tuesday, in the absence of important macroeconomic news, the market showed calm trading. The dollar index fell slightly as part of the technical correction. Today in the American session, we can expect some surge in volatility in the light of the release of inflation data in the United States. As the market becomes more and more concerned about the need for strong stimulus from the Fed, the indicators of price pressure may cause a violent reaction in the foreign exchange market. In addition, a monetary policy decision by the Bank of Canada is expected, which may cause significant fluctuations in the Canadian currency.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.09
On Monday, the dollar index continued its upward movement after the extremely positive Friday data on the labor market. The US economy added 379K jobs, well above the median average. Previous NFP numbers were revised upward to 166K. Over the two months, the average exceeded 200K, which is a bullish factor for the dollar. In addition, the unemployment rate fell by 0.1% to 6.2%, while the share of the economically active population remained unchanged.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.05
The dollar index rose sharply on Thursday after Jerome Powell commented to the Wall Street Journal about the recent skyrocketing of government bond yields. At first glance, nothing important was said. He expressed concern about the dynamics of the development of financial conditions. But at the same time, he has warned that the Fed does not plan to put pressure on profitability, and the monetary regulator will be "patient". The market interpreted this as the end of the easing policy, as a result of which the dollar rose sharply, consolidating above the moving average on the daily chart.
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Hot News – 2021.03.04
By the end of the last trading week, expectations for the growth of the labor market increased, as data on initial jobless claims decreased more than by 100,000 reaching 730,000.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.04
On Wednesday, the dollar index rose slightly as the conflict between the EU and the UK resumed. The dispute escalated over trade with Northern Ireland, which effectively remained in the European bloc’s customs area according to the Brexit deal. The European Union said it would take legal action against the UK for violating the terms of the trade deal, as it unilaterally refused to follow customs rules for checking goods until October. In this light, the European currencies came under pressure against the dollar, but in the American session, the greenback itself underwent sales. Negative data from the US services sector from ISM slightly reduced the bullish pressure in the USD, and as a result, the foreign exchange market closed near the opening price.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.03
On Tuesday, the dollar index failed to break the SMA 100 moving average on the daily chart. A pullback has taken place, as the market is in no hurry to fully reverse the direction before the ECB and Fed meetings. ECB members will meet next week to decide on monetary policy. Investors will be keeping a close eye on what Christine Lagarde has to say about the recent rise in bond yields. Their expectations can cause speculation in the market and unexpected bursts of volatility are possible during the week.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.02
On Monday, the market moved in different directions. European currencies continued to decline against the dollar despite positive manufacturing PMI data. Germany showed slightly faster growth from 60.6 to 60.7. In general, the indicator of European manufacturing activity was 57.9 while the preliminary estimate was 57.7. IHS Markit data failed to reverse the trend that had formed last week, as these figures were taken into account in the preliminary calculation. A similar index for the US from the ISM came out significantly higher: 60.8 against 58.7 a month earlier. However, the growth accelerated mainly due to high inflation in the sector.
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The Forecast – 2021.03.01
Friday has been the most volatile day since May last year. The dollar index rose by 0.68%. The main outsiders were commodity currencies amid a correction in the oil market. The dollar continues to rise in price in light of positive expectations on the labor market data and the departure of investors from risky assets. The stock market continues to decline as bond yields are rising. At the end of February, the leaders were the British Gilts, which gained almost 50 basis points up to 0.82%.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.26
The dollar rose sharply on Thursday amid positive data both on labor market and durable goods orders. The number of new jobless claims fell sharply by 111,000 in a week to 730K, according to the Labor Department. The monthly average fell to 807.75K from 828.25K. This gives positive expectations to the market ahead of the release of the NFP report, which will be published on Friday next week. Traders also positively evaluated the data from the Ministry of Commerce. The growth in the volume of orders for durable goods indicates a steady growth in GDP in the first quarter.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.25
On Wednesday, there were short-term yet strong fluctuations amid technical problems at the Fed. Some payment systems stopped working, which caused concerns in the financial markets. The dollar was strengthening before the beginning of the American session. The functionality of the payment modules was restored, which returned the stock market to growth and the US dollar to decline. As a result, the greenback ended the day in the red. Moreover, the American currency has consolidated below the support levels, and the daily candlestick has shown “bearish engulfing”.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.24
On Tuesday, the dollar index remained almost unchanged. It has been close to the minimum values since January 22. The foreign exchange market was trading in different directions. Almost all currencies were prone to decline against the dollar as part of the pullback. The British pound sterling was again an exception. Bulls in this currency have started betting on monetary tightening. It was provoked by statements by the Bank of England about a sharp rebound in the economy after the worst recession in the past 300 years and rising inflationary expectations, which increased after the Tuesday data claiming the growth of earnings.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.23
On Monday, the dollar index continued to decline, while the euro renewed its highs this month in light of high estimates of the ease of doing business in Germany. German companies were more optimistic about the growth in economic momentum. The IFO's estimate for the next six months rose from 91.5 in January to 94.2 in February, beating economists' forecasts. The Business Climate Index also rose as companies feel the current situation improves.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.22
On Friday, the dollar index continued to decline and stopped near the support level at 90.15. Preliminary PMI data for February had a positive impact on European currencies. Despite the expected slowdown, Germany's manufacturing sector has accelerated growth to 60.6, the IHS Markit says. The index for the Eurozone also showed an acceleration to 57.7. The UK services sector surged to 49.7. While the numbers indicate continued contraction, they are close to 50, giving positive expectations for next month. As a result, the euro returned to its February highs against the dollar, while the sterling set a new annual record at 1.4050.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.19
After surprisingly high retail sales data on Wednesday and the rise of the dollar, sentiment turned sharply on Thursday. The dollar came under pressure in light of another pessimistic labor market report. The number of initial jobless claims rose to a four-week high, suggesting no progress in hiring. In addition, the manufacturing index of the state of Philadelphia slowed, showing a significant drop in business activity. The latest news is in stark contrast to the New York Fed data and speaks of uneven economic recovery in the country.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.18
The US retail sales surprisingly rose in January, well above economists' estimates, pushing the US dollar higher on Wednesday. According to the Commerce Department, total sales increased by 5.3% compared to a 1% decline in December. It has become the first monthly gain since September. In addition, industrial production continued to recover early this year. January production rose more-than-expected, although it remained 1.9% below pre-pandemic levels.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.17
On Tuesday, in the light of more positive NYES data, the dollar index bounced off the support level and continues to rise in the Asian session. The New York Manufacturing Index surprisingly accelerated growth at twice the expected rate, mainly driven by inflation. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's general business conditions index rose from 3.5 to 12.1 a month earlier. An increasing number of companies in the state are reporting higher prices for raw materials, which forces them to set higher prices for their products.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.16
On Monday, in the absence of important macroeconomic data, the dollar index remained practically unchanged, falling by only 5 points. The commodity market continues to put pressure on the US currency. The rise in oil prices contributes to the growth of inflationary expectations. The yield on US 10-year bonds continues to rise. But the 2-year bonds remain at their previous lows, which negatively affects the USD.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.15
On Friday, the rise in the dollar index was interrupted by the US consumer sentiment indicators. The sentiment index fell to 76.2 from 79 last month, according to data from the University of Michigan released on Friday. The average forecast was a slight improvement to 80.9, but it turned out weaker than even the most pessimistic estimates. Consumers expect the year inflation to be 3.3%, the highest since July 2014. In this light, the dollar index returned to the opening level, leaving a long shadow at the top on the daily chart.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.12
On Thursday, with no important macroeconomic news, the foreign exchange market traded in a calm atmosphere, and the dollar index remained practically unchanged. The data on the initial jobless claims couldn’t surprise the market. The weekly growth still remains from 750,000 to 800,000. At the same time, the number of open vacancies in the labor market is growing, which gives investors hope for a quick economic recovery.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.11
On Wednesday, the dollar index remained almost unchanged, decreasing just by 2 points to 90.40. Inflation data reflected a lack of progress following stimulus measures. The baseline CPI showed zero growth in January, and in annual terms, the price growth slowed to 1.4%. Despite the unclear January figures, some investors still expect price pressures to leverage in the months ahead amid renewed stimulus from the US government. And an increase in the number of vaccinations allows weakening the quarantine measures, which stimulates consumer spending.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.10
On Tuesday, the market followed the previous direction in the absence of a strong news background. The euro continues to rise against the dollar, although the growth of assets on the weekly balance sheet of the ECB has doubled. The data on the German trade balance, which has shown a slight acceleration of growth, partially supports the bulls. The US and Germany inflation data will be released today, but they can hardly change anything in the dynamics of the market since central banks do not see the opportunity to change interest rates in the foreseeable future.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.09
On Monday, the dollar continued to lose ground amid the disappointment of traders regarding data on the labor market and expectations of a new injection of money into the US economy. The corrective growth seems to be over. The dollar index bounced off the daily moving average SMA100 and is approaching the support level. Commodity markets, where prices have been rising for quite a long time, put additional pressure on the greenback.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.08
On Friday, the dollar index fell sharply after the labor market report showed surprisingly low numbers. The NFP indicator showed an increase of only 49,000 against the forecast of 105,000. The negative data was partially offset by a decrease in the unemployment rate to 6.3%. But the decline in unemployment is caused by a decline in the level of the economically active population. December data was revised downwards. The American economy lost 227,000 jobs a month earlier.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.05
In the light of positive expectations regarding the labor market, the dollar index continued to rise and reached 91.50 on Thursday. The week ends with the biggest gains for the USDX since late October last year. Traders are looking at how the index behaves near 91.80, where the daily moving average SMA100 is. So far, there are no signs of a pullback. The fundamentals in the US are coming out pretty positive. All the available positive data was completed by reports from the industrial sector, claiming a 1.1% increase against the forecast of 0.7%.
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Hot News – 2021.02.04
At the beginning of this trading week, expectations for the labor market report were moderately positive. The median of the NFP forecast was just 50,000. By Thursday, it increased to 100,000. The rise in expectations is based on data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Manufacturing employment has increased to 52.6, the highest level since June 2019.
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Hot News – 2021.02.04
The Bank of England announced that it will keep interest rates at a record low of 0.1%, which all 9 committee members unanimously gave their votes for. It was also unanimously decided to keep the volume of bond purchases at £895 billion. Going forward, the committee leaves the doors open for rate cuts if necessary. All decisions fully meet the expectations of economists.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.04
The dollar index continues to rise amid positive macroeconomic statistics. The services index, released by The Institute for Supply Management on Wednesday, accelerated growth to 58.7 from 57.7 in December. The average median forecast in a survey of economists suggested a slowdown to 56.7. Employment reports from both the ADP and the ISM also showed growth. At the same time, the services sector has recorded the largest increase within the last 11 months, which gives positive expectations to the market before the publication of the NFP release on Friday.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.03
On Tuesday, the dollar index closed slightly higher. It is continuing to rise amid declining European currencies. The biggest bearish pressure is observed in the euro after the release of the GDP data. According to preliminary estimates, the contraction of the European economy was 0.7% in the fourth quarter and 5.1% in annual terms. The industrial output saw a 6.8% decline in 2020. Amid expectations of further economic contraction, the euro broke through the key support level. The dollar index consolidated above the key resistance.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.02
The dollar index rose on Monday, breaking through the SMA50 daily moving average and consolidating above it. This is the first signal of the beginning of a correction since October last year. Macroeconomic data came out good for the US and moderately negative for the Eurozone. The ISM index for the US manufacturing sector shows growth and it is higher than the indicators of the Eurozone. At the same time, the employment index in the sector is accelerating. Retail trade volume in Europe fell sharply by 9.6% in December, while the annual pace slowed to 1.5%, which served as a bearish driver for the euro.
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The Forecast – 2021.02.01
On Friday, the dollar index remained practically unchanged. In the absence of a news background, quotes remained at the same level and below the moving averages on the daily timeframe. Monday trading began with negative data on the manufacturing sector in China. The January PMI index fell to a 4-month low, signaling a new wave of economic slowdown. This factor can put pressure on the quotes of European currencies since China is one of the main trading partners of Europe.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.29
On Thursday, the dollar index slightly weakened its positions but continued its upward trend during the Asian session. The driver of the short-term southern movement was the release of the US GDP data for the third quarter. According to a preliminary estimate provided by the Department of Commerce on Thursday, gross domestic product increased by 4% in the fourth quarter. The median forecast of economists was 4.2%. Retail trade in the GDP slowed down by 3%. Inflation fell to 1.9%. However, the latest report can hardly be called disappointing. The reason for a slowdown is a strong rebound in the third quarter, but the figures are still above the 10-year average.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.28
On Wednesday, the dollar index started growing but didn’t manage to gain a foothold above the first resistance of 90.69. The outcome of the Fed meeting disappointed investors, as the committee had not claimed the need for additional stimulus for the US economy. In addition, the negative reports of some tech giants, such as Apple, put additional pressure on the stock market.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.27
On Tuesday, the US dollar index stopped climbing and went into a decline within its range of 90.70 - 90.00, forming a bearish engulfing candle. On the daily chart, the greenback is held back by the moving average SMA 50, below which the index has been since November last year.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.26
On Monday, the dollar index strengthened its positions, but the movement is taking place within the sideways range. Greenback continues to consolidate in the area of 90.70 – 90.00. Published reports by the IFO Institute showed that German companies' optimism about the economic recovery is starting to decline as tightening the quarantine at home and abroad hold back the activity. The sentiment index for current conditions declined in January, bringing the business climate index down to 90.1. Some expectations for the next six months have also declined.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.25
On Friday, the dollar index has slightly increased, although this didn’t save it from closing the week in the red. The main events of the day were the PMI data from IHS Markit, which came out disappointing for the British economy and positive for the US. In the UK, the service sector – the most important for Foggy Albion – fell sharply to 38.8. In the US, on the contrary, growth accelerated in both manufacturing and services. The final results for all countries point to the US as the leader in economic recovery during the ongoing pandemic.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.22
On Thursday, the dollar index continued to fall behind, as traders positively reacted to the statements of the President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde. Germany’s Bond Yield jumped to -0.486% in response to a possible decline in future purchases intraday. As a result, the yield spread between German and American securities increased, and the euro closed the day above the highs of the previous day. Today the market will focus on the preliminary PMI data for the manufacturing sector of the Eurozone and the service sector in the UK.
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Hot News – 2021.01.21
At a press conference, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said that the eurozone economy likely contracted at the end of last year, which means that the European bloc is now heading towards a double recession.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.21
On Wednesday, the dollar index closed in the red and continued to fall amid the rising stock market and expectations of additional cash infusion into the US economy in the Asian session on Thursday. The leaders of growth against the dollar among the G10 currencies were the British pound and the Canadian dollar. The Canadian currency was positively influenced by the results of the meeting of the Bank of Canada, which left the monetary policy unchanged. In Britain, a plan on rescuing the economy during the pandemic together with the preservation of workplaces for the coming months is being discussed.
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Hot News – 2021.01.20
The Bank of Canada has kept interest rates unchanged and reiterated the need to keep them at historic lows to stimulate the economy that has been hit by the second wave of the Covid-19 pandemic.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.20
On Tuesday, the dollar index slowed down, as investors positively evaluated the comments of Janet Yellen, calling for large-scale cash injections into the US economy. At the same time, the ZEW Institute reported an increase in economic sentiment, despite the negative situation with the coronavirus.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.19
On the first day of the week, the market experienced a calm trading situation amid the absence of significant macroeconomic data. The dollar index made a slight pullback. Traders are preparing for the meetings of the ECB, Bank of Japan, and Canada this week, which may well suggest the beginning of speculative movements in the foreign exchange market. Since the beginning of the year can bring even more damage, investors are assessing the likelihood of increasing the volume of incentives.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.18
On Friday, the dollar index continued its upward correction and closed the second week in the positive zone. The market ignored the negative data on retail sales in the US. The total retail volume in December decreased by 0.7% compared to the previous month. The November data was revised downward. The final figure was -1.4% in November. The control group of goods decreased by 1.9%. Since this index is often correlated with GDP, expectations for the US economic growth in the fourth quarter slightly decreased.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.15
On Thursday, the dollar index stabilized slightly above 90.00, retreating from the conquered highs. The day ended in negative closing after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell announced that rumors about the possibility of the monetary regulator's withdrawal from the stimulus program were premature. Interest rates will remain low until the committee sees "warning signs of rising inflation," he said.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.14
On Wednesday, the dollar index regained some of its lost positions and consolidated above the round mark of 90.00. As it turned out, not all FRS members are inclined to the same opinion about the need to keep interest rates at low levels for a long time. Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida, one of the committee's voting members, said he did not expect any changes until 2022. The dollar index returned to strengthening.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.13
On Tuesday, the dollar index showed a pullback from the highs reached on Monday. The decline’s drivers were the FRS members’ statements, indicating that soft monetary policy will remain in any economic development. As a result, Treasury yields fell, and the dollar index returned below 90.00.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.12
On Monday, the dollar index continued to strengthen in the framework of a deep market correction and reached the first resistance at 90.69, after which a pullback occurred. But so far, there are no visible signs of stopping the correction. No important news background is expected, and the market will be focused mainly on bond yields. Here American Treasuries are demonstrating growth and much faster than their European counterparts. This factor continues to support the greenback.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.11
On Friday, and the Asian session on Monday, there is a continuation of the dollar correction. Moderately positive statistics from the US is a driver for dollar bulls. The service sector performed surprisingly well last week. The purchasing managers' index surpassed all expectations, reaching 57.2. Though employment continued to fall, which was ultimately reflected in the NFP results, business activity continued to grow.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.08
On Thursday, the dollar index showed a tendency to correction against the background of positive statistics from the services sector. Growth picked up unexpectedly, according to ISM data. Business activity and new orders fully offset declining employment. The index was 57.2 against 55.9 in November. The December metric exceeded all forecasts of economists who had expected an estimate of 54.5.
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Hot News – 2021.01.08
At the beginning of the trading week, expectations for employment growth in the US were growing. The employment index in the manufacturing sector showed an increase to 51.5 against a decrease to 48.4 a month earlier. However, further statistics were disappointing. The number of jobs was down to 123,000, according to ADP research institute data that were released on Wednesday.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.06
On Tuesday, the dollar index failed to strengthen its positions regardless of the fact that the measures of the manufacturing sector were above the expected ones. The ISM Manufacturing Index unexpectedly rose to 60.7 from 57.5 a month earlier. Sixteen of the eighteen manufacturing industries showed growth in December. The leading position is occupied by the production of clothing and furniture. The new orders index rose to 67.9, the fastest growth since January 2004, while the unfinished orders index rose to its highest level since June 2018.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.05
On Monday, the dollar index stopped falling after negative news from the European side and OPEC+. In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced an emergency lockdown of the country. After warnings that the National Health Service may not be able to cope with the growing infection rate, the head of government issued a decree on the need for self-isolation. According to him, when almost 14 million people are vaccinated, the restrictions can be lifted. Such an amount of vaccinations can be expected only by mid-March, which means that the country will be paralyzed for almost 1.5 months. Against this background, the sterling lost more than 100 points in a day. Another negative news for the market is the lack of agreements in OPEC+. The participating countries broke off negotiations due to disagreements on production quotas. Oil immediately lost about 2% in price, which allowed USD/CAD to avoid further decline.
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The Forecast – 2021.01.04
On the last day of 2020, the market was trading in different directions. Against the background of low liquidity, the euro has lost about 100 points, but it’s already recovering in the Asian session, continuing to grow along with the main majors. On the first day of trading in the new year, the market opened with gaps, which is common for a long break. Complete backtracking of liquidity can be expected in the American session. Monday is expected to be calm, as far as only the final PMI reports from the macroeconomic statistics will be ready today. Preliminary data has already been received, and today there may be only minor changes.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.31
On Wednesday, optimism reigned in the foreign exchange market. The final step towards a regulated UK exit from the EU has been taken. The House of Commons of Foggy Albion approved the deal proposed by Boris Johnson. Against this background, sterling has renewed its December highs and is consolidating near them. At the end of the year, traders are assessing the growth of the Chinese manufacturing sector, which slowed down in December. The NBS Index fell to 51.9 in December from 52.1 for the month. However, it was the tenth consecutive month of growth in manufacturing activity. The production volume made up 54.2 against 54.7 in November. New orders slowed 3 basis points to 53.6 against, and employment remained largely unchanged. Business sentiment slowed slightly to 59.8 from 60.1 a month earlier.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.30
On Tuesday, most currencies back off from year highs against the dollar. Apparently, traders are starting to cut long positions. The same situation is observed in stock markets. After news from Washington that Senate Republicans blocked the Democrats’ attempt to increase direct payments to individuals from $600 to $2,000, the indices back off from the highs of the year, which was reflected in the Japanese yen. In Europe, all 27 member states of the European bloc have approved the deal with the UK. The House of Commons is expected to vote for the deal today. The agreement will enter into force temporarily at the beginning of the year, but the European Parliament will still have to give its consent either in February or in March.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.29
The market demonstrated multidirectional trading on Monday. The sterling was the weakest one, having closed in the red zone at the end of the day. It looks like the deal between the EU and the UK itself is no longer a positive moment for investors. Now traders have switched to calculating the losses that the British side will incur after the official withdrawal from the European Union. The euro closed the day in the positive zone. Bulls continue to receive positive information. An investment deal will be signed between the EU and China, providing access for the EU to the Chinese market. This is the first step towards a future free trade agreement.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.28
On Thursday, the market demonstrated weak trading dynamics due to the early Christmas close of the market. The opening of the week did not bring any surprises, as it usually happens after Christmas – there are no gaps. The major currency pairs have retained their advantage over the dollar. Positive news from Brussels regarding Brexit negotiations keeps the euro and sterling in an uptrend. However, things may not be that simple. The market seems to have followed all the positive expectations in advance and can now focus on the nuances of the agreement, which are not so positive for the British economy. In fact, Boris Johnson made concessions in the fisheries sector without receiving reciprocal concessions in other areas from the EU.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.24
On Wednesday, the market received good news from the Brexit negotiations. It looks like both sides are ready to sign a trade agreement, which is to be subsequently approved by the British and EU governments. The dollar is falling following the positive news from Europe, as well as against the background of disappointing statistics in the US. Home sales showed a significant drop again – in November the volume was -11.0%. Physical person income and expenses decreased more than expected: -1.1% and -0.4%, respectively. Basic durable goods orders slowed to 0.4% after 1.9% a month earlier, further indicating a low level of GDP in the 4th quarter.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.24
On Wednesday, the market received good news from the Brexit negotiations. It looks like both sides are ready to sign a trade agreement, which is to be subsequently approved by the British and EU governments. The dollar is falling following the positive news from Europe, as well as against the background of disappointing statistics in the US. Home sales showed a significant drop again – in November the volume was -11.0%. Physical person income and expenses decreased more than expected: -1.1% and -0.4%, respectively. Basic durable goods orders slowed to 0.4% after 1.9% a month earlier, further indicating a low level of GDP in the 4th quarter.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.23
On Tuesday, the market came under pressure from the political background again. Brexit negotiations have failed to break the deadlock. The European Union rejected Prime Minister Boris Johnson's offer of mutual concessions. The euro and sterling fell. The dollar index rose, adding 0.49%. The news feed was mixed. The US GDP was above the preliminary one at the level of 33.4% for the third quarter in the final estimate. But expectations for the fourth quarter decreased, as the consumer confidence index was well below the estimates of economists – 88.6 against 92.9 a month earlier.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.22
On Monday, the foreign exchange market was quite volatile. In the first half of the day, the market quotes were subject to a bearish scenario due to a worsening epidemiological situation in the UK. Later, Boris Johnson's announcements of concessions from foggy Albion to close the deal encouraged the bullish trend. But the concessions must be bilateral, and the EU needs to take reciprocal steps. Sterling and the euro have regained some of the lost positions, but it is unknown whether the EU representatives will agree to this compromise.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.21
There were some changes in the foreign exchange market on Friday. The dollar downtrend has discontinued after the reports about another stalemate in the Brexit negotiations. Investors saw that there was actually no progress, and the promises weren’t supported by the facts. The weekend added some negative news to the market. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Emmanuel Macron began discussing the closure of borders with Britain due to the spread of coronavirus in Foggy Albion. With the opening of the Asian session, the sterling fell immediately by almost 200 points against the dollar. The euro has lost about 70 points.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.18
On Thursday, the downward trend of the USD continued on the foreign exchange market. The Bank of England did not surprise but gave a signal for a possible easing of monetary policy in case of lack of an agreement between the EU and Britain. Meanwhile, events regarding the Brexit negotiations have escalated again. The sticking point was the clause of the fishing contract. Boris Johnson called the EU conditions unacceptable. Sterling lost about 100 points in light of these developments. The dollar has partially recovered its losses.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.17
On Wednesday, the foreign exchange market was optimistic after receiving the data from the manufacturing sector of Europe and Germany separately. The numbers surprised the market as long as such a sharp increase was not expected during the tightening of restrictive measures due to the pandemic. According to preliminary data, the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector of the European Union accelerated growth to 55.5 from 53.8 a month earlier in December. Economists expected the opposite trend - a slowdown to 53.0. The PMI report from IHS Markit demonstrated that Germany took the lead. The data represented an acceleration to 58.6 from 57.8 a month earlier.
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Hot News – 2020.12.16
The Fed left interest rates unchanged at its last public meeting this year. The content of the statement has changed only in the clause of redemption of bonds.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.16
The currency market is calm with the Fed meeting coming up. Traders are waiting for the decision of the monetary regulator on the interest rate and new economic forecasts for the coming and subsequent years. Only sterling remains volatile, reacting to any statements announced during the Brexit negotiations. On Wednesday, Michel Barnier announced that he sees a way out of the impasse. However, he added that this is possible only in the case of "resolution of disagreements". But that was enough for sterling to renew its maximum on Monday.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.15
Data on industrial production and retail sales in China demonstrate that the pace of the Chinese economic growth continues to outpace all competitors. This was reflected in the European industry as well. Europe, as China's main trading partner, also boosted industrial output to 2.1% month on month, according to the latest data. The annual rate in this sector rose to -3.8% from -6.3% a month earlier. These factors continue to support the single European currency. Market volatility remains low right before the Fed meeting on Wednesday.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.14
It’s possible that the Brexit negotiations have broken through the impasse, as the leaders of the two sides agreed to continue discussions on the agreement by telephone conversations. Of course, this makes little difference compared to the situation two weeks earlier. Investors need to know if there will be a trade agreement or tough Brexit. Meantime, the markets are demonstrating positive dynamics. Equity futures are rising, the dollar index is falling. The Japanese manufacturing sector also adds optimism. The manufacturing industry has accelerated growth to 4.0% in October, which is higher than the expected level.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.11
Brexit negotiations are deadlocked again. On Thursday evening, the negotiations had finished. The EU leaders have removed the deal from the agenda. A resumption is possible on Sunday, but officials are acknowledging that there is nothing more to talk about without a new political direction. Due to the fact that there is no new plan to develop, the likelihood of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal was very high. The dollar is gaining strength again, and investors are moving into defensive assets.
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Hot News – 2020.12.10
On Thursday, the European Central Bank left its deposit rate unchanged at -0.05%. And also issued an important statement on the next additional stimulating measures of the economy.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.10
Brexit negotiations ended with failure again. Boris Johnson and Ursula Von der Leyen agreed on the need for further bilateral negotiation before Sunday this week. December 13 should be the last day to make a decision about the future of Great Britain. The negative news affected the foreign exchange market. The dollar index has increased. Sterling has lost its previously won positions but is clearly trying to reach a positive outcome until the end of the week. In general, the market is waiting for the announcement of the results of the ECB meeting, which will begin today at 15:45 (GMT+2).
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The Forecast – 2020.12.09
On Tuesday, it was expected for the market to trade in a sideways range, waiting for some updates. Today, apparently, the market will receive them, since Boris Johnson will have a meeting with Von der Leyen. This is particularly important for sterling. In the United States, negotiations on additional injections into the economy in the amount of $908 billion have resumed, which contributes to the growth of risky assets and a decrease in the dollar index. The Canadian currency is waiting for the decision of the Central Bank.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.08
The situation with Brexit was unclear on Monday. Boris Johnson's bold promises to break off all contacts regarding the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union did not materialize, therefore the dollar index lost a significant part of the won positions. In the meantime, he also failed to come close to a compromise solution. Now the investors are waiting for Wednesday - another day designated as "the last and decisive" in the negotiations. In this situation, the market may "go quiet".
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The Forecast – 2020.12.07
The US economy added its lowest number of workplaces in six months in November, hampered by a resurgence of new cases of COVID-19. The number of non-farm workplaces increased by 245,000 last month after increasing by 610,000 in October, the Department of Labour has informed. This was the smallest gain since the start of the recovery with the situation of workplaces recovery in May. The fifth consecutive monthly decline in workplaces gain left employment well below its February peak.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.04
London must compromise for the EU deal to be reached, an EU diplomat said on Thursday. Some of the EU officials had expressed hope earlier that the deal could be closed in a matter of days, while the British minister reported "good progress." But the prime minister Boris Johnson's government has put forward two bills that would violate the 2020 Brexit deal, despite protests in Brussels. Later, one of the EU officials said that there are significant differences that remained in the negotiations. A Johnson spokesman said that both sides are working hard to fill in the gaps. So far, the parties can’t find a compromise, so we recommend you to monitor the situation with the signing of the agreement, this can greatly affect the foreign exchange market.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.03
The European Union and the United States must resolve their trade disputes after the president-elect Joe Biden takes charge. After four years of the US President Donald Trump's "America First" Program, in which Washington imposed tariffs on Brussels for national security reasons, the EU is now looking to work closely with Biden on almost every issue. The resolution of trade disputes between the EU and the US will give a positive impetus to the development of the EU economy, which will have a positive effect on the European currency rate.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.02
Yesterday, the Federal Reserve System Chairman Powell made some announcements. He announced that the CARES program has helped the US economy tremendously. Powell said the US economy will need a fiscal program until the economy recovers from the effects of the coronavirus. It was emphasized that the economy is now recovering at a better pace than it was previously expected. Judging from his rhetoric, we can conclude that the US economy can be one of the first to recover from the coronavirus in consequence of the correctly chosen monetary and credit system in this situation. This will make the United States a more attractive country in terms of investment compared to other countries, which will entail an inflow of capital into assets.
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The Forecast – 2020.12.01
On Monday, the US President-elect Joe Biden has appointed the former Federal Reserve System chairman Janet Yellen as his Treasury Secretary and announced it to other members of his economic team. According to the transitional group, the democrat selected Wally Adeyemo as the deputy of the Secretary of the Treasury, Nira Tanden as the director of the Office of Management and Budget, and Cecilia Rose as head of the Council of Economic Advisors.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.30
On Friday, Japanese Finance Minister Asa said that the situation in the country remains tense due to the consequences of the coronavirus. The main emphasis was put on the fact that the company's credit needs will grow by the end of this year, many companies are experiencing difficulties in financing. Asa said that in the future he wants banks to support companies that need funding. As we can see, not everything is going smoothly in the Japanese economy, we recommend you to keep track of what monetary policy Japan will follow in the future due to economic problems.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.27
According to the October report prepared by Eurostat, the Eurozone's total national debt in the second quarter has exceeded 95% of GDP. According to the European Commission, the total debt will overcome the 100% mark for the first time this year. We believe that the recovery of the economy after the pandemic will take a long time, and, probably, investors will limit investments in assets of European countries. It should be noted that there is a day off in the US, and low volatility is expected on the market.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.26
The FOMC meeting minutes were published yesterday. Officials expect the Fed to continue assets purchases "at least at the current pace" in the coming months. According to this data, there is a risk that the dollar will show a downtrend by the end of this year. Traders should carefully choose assets for trading and correctly assess the risks. There is a day off in the US today, so low volatility is expected on the market.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.25
The US economy has already begun to recover, although its decline was significant. The Fed will continue to adhere to a soft policy, which will help restore the economy. According to this rhetoric, the US economy is likely to recover better than other countries' economies next year, which contributes to capital flows from investors.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.24
Trade negotiators have resumed talks about the form of a new relationship between the EU and the UK after the post-Brexit production suspension agreement expires on December 31. We recommend following the development of events. If negotiations succeed, it will positively affect the dynamics of both the pound and the euro.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.23
On Friday, Fed President of Dallas, Robert Kaplan, said that he expected a slowdown in US economic growth. The coronavirus pandemic contributes to this. He stated that the end of the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021 would be challenging for the United States. The second half of 2021 will be strong for the US in terms of economic recovery. In this regard, we can say that investors will be further not sure which assets are better to invest in. It is probably better to consider investing in reserve currencies such as the Swiss franc and gold during this period.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.20
Yesterday, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva, spoke about economic recovery prospects. According to her rhetoric, we can conclude that it will take a long time to recover the economies of the countries, and investors will be further not sure which assets are better to invest now in.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.18
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson questioned whether a trade deal with the European Union would be reached. Countries are working hard to find solutions that fully respect UK sovereignty, but there is no certainty that an agreement will be possible. It is worth following the rhetoric by the authorities on this issue further, and trading assets with the EUR, GBP more carefully.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.17
Investors are still focused on the situation concerning the coronavirus and the vaccine against it. Yesterday, the dollar fell after Moderna Inc. has become the second US company in a week to report positive test results for a COVID-19 vaccine.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.13
The tension in the world concerning the situation with the coronavirus is still the same. The US and Europe are introducing restrictions to stop the spread of the virus. In such difficult conditions, we recommend traders to trade more accurately, to fix their positions at important levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.06
The greenback is losing ground against its main competitors. Financial market participants expect the final results of the US presidential election. Preliminary data indicates that Democrat Joe Biden will win. The Fed has kept the key interest rate range unchanged. Today, traders will be focused on the US labor market report for October. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.05
There is still uncertainty in financial markets. Investors expect the final results of the US presidential election. The Bank of England has kept its key interest rate unchanged at 0.10%. The regulator expanded its government bond-buying program. Today, traders will be focused on the Fed meeting. We expect high trading activity and volatility.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.04
Trading activity and volatility have increased significantly in financial markets. The US presidential election is in the spotlight. According to preliminary data, Biden is ahead of Trump. At the same time, a number of important states in the southern United States supported Donald Trump, which could significantly reduce the advantage. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.03
Investors have started fixing positions on the greenback. The US presidential election is in the spotlight. Uncertainty remains in the financial markets. Trading activity and volatility may increase significantly. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.11.02
The US dollar continues to strengthen against a basket of world currencies. The demand for risky assets is still low amid a rapid increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19 and ahead of the US presidential election. During the current trading week, traders will also assess the Fed meeting and the US labor market report for October.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.30
The US currency continues to strengthen against its main competitors. The US has published positive data on the country's GDP. The ECB has kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. The regulator also signaled the introduction of additional financial incentives. Oil quotes have become stable.
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Hot News  – 2020.10.29
Since the beginning of this week, aggressive sales have been observed in US financial markets. Major stock indices fell by more than 4.5%.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.29
The demand for risky assets is still low. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before today's ECB meeting. The Central Banks of Canada and Japan, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. Today, we recommend paying attention to economic releases from the US.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.28
The greenback has been growing against its main competitors. The demand for risky assets has weakened amid the rapid spread of the COVID-19 epidemic and the upcoming US presidential election. Today, the Bank of Canada meeting is in the focus of attention. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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Hot News  – 2020.10.27
On Wednesday, October 28, at 16:00 (GMT+2:00), the Central Bank of Canada will announce its decision on the key interest rate. The regulator is expected to keep the key marks of monetary policy at the same level.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.27
There is an ambiguous technical pattern on currency majors. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the US presidential elections. Investors also expect key Central Bank meetings later this week. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.26
Currency majors have become stable. Investors are closely following the final stage of the election race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as well as new information concerning the stimulus package in the US. Today, financial market participants will assess economic releases from Germany and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.23
The greenback has become stable against its main competitors. US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi reported on progress in negotiations with the White House on a new stimulus package. Today, investors will assess the data on economic activity in the Eurozone and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.22
The greenback is still weak against currency majors before the US presidential election. According to the Fed's Beige Book, most US federal districts have shown weak or moderate economic growth. London and Brussels plan to resume negotiations on trade issues. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.21
The greenback has been declining against its main competitors. Financial market participants continue to follow the news about the new economic stimulus package in the US. Today, investors will assess the Fed's "Beige Book". Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.20
Currency majors show ambiguous results. Greenback demand has weakened as the deadline for agreeing on a new stimulus package is getting closer and the deal is still pending. Financial market participants expect up-to-date information on the Brexit issue. Today, investors will assess statistics on the US real estate market.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.19
Currency majors are consolidating. Investors expect additional drivers. Financial market participants continue to follow the discussion of new economic stimulus in the US before the presidential election and the situation concerning Brexit. Financial markets are under pressure due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.16
The greenback has been growing against its main competitors. The demand for safe assets has risen due to a sharp increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in the US and Europe. Investors also continue to monitor discussions on new economic stimulus in the US. The US retail sales report is in the spotlight. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.15
Currency majors show ambiguous results. Investors expect up-to-date information concerning negotiations in the US Congress on a new stimulus package. The situation with the COVID-19 pandemic in Europe continues to deteriorate rapidly. Today, investors will assess US economic releases. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.13
The US dollar has become stable against its main competitors. Investors expect updates on a new stimulus package in the US, as well as new restrictive measures in Europe and Asia. We also recommend paying attention to the economic reports from the UK, Germany and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.12
The greenback is losing ground against its main competitors. Investors continue to monitor the campaigns of Donald Trump and Joe Biden, as well as the adoption of a new stimulus package for the US economy. Today, we recommend paying attention to the speeches by the heads of the ECB and the Bank of England. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.09
The US dollar shows ambiguous results against currency majors. Investors continue to monitor the progress of the new stimulus package for the US economy. ECB officials are concerned about the prospects for economic recovery in the Eurozone. We expect a report on the labor market in Canada. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.08
The greenback shows a variety of trends against its main competitors. Investors assess the controversial statements by US President Donald Trump concerning the new stimulus package. According to the FOMC minutes, the Fed plans to keep interest rates at current levels for a long time. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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Hot News  – 2020.10.07
The attention of financial market participants is focused on the FOMC minutes, which will be published today at 21:00 (GMT+3:00). This report may indicate the plans of the Fed for the monetary policy.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.07
Yesterday, Donald Trump ordered to end negotiations in the US Congress on a new stimulus package. These events caused a sharp drop in demand for "risky" assets. Today, investors will be focused on the FOMC meeting minutes. We recommend paying attention to the comments by the regulator's representatives. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.06
The greenback has weakened against its main competitors. The demand for the US currency has weakened amid concerns about Donald Trump's health. Investors continue to monitor the progress of negotiations in the US Congress on a new stimulus package. We recommend paying attention to the speeches by the presidents of the ECB and the Fed.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.05
Currency majors show ambiguous results. Financial market participants expect up-to-date information on Donald Trump’s health status. The negotiations in the US Congress on a new stimulus package for the country's economy are in the spotlight. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.02
Currency majors show a variety of trends against the greenback. At the moment, investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of the US labor market report for September. We recommend paying attention to the difference between the actual and forecasted values. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.10.01
The greenback shows ambiguous results. Trading activity and volatility on the currency majors are still high. Investors continue to monitor talks in the US Congress on a new stimulus package. Today, we expect important economic releases. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.30
The greenback shows ambiguous results against its main competitors. Financial market participants assess the previous debate between Donald Trump and his challenger Joe Biden. Today, we expect a number of important economic releases from the UK, Germany, the US and Canada. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.29
Currency majors are being traded stable. Investors expect a debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden and updates on a new stimulus package in the US and negotiations on Brexit. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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Hot News  – 2020.09.28
Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the first President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden's debate.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.28
Currency majors show a variety of trends. The publication of important economic releases is not planned today. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the first debate between President Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.25
Currency majors have become stable. Investors have started partially fixing positions on the greenback. Investors are still concerned about the active growth in the incidence of COVID-19. The US Congress has resumed talks on a new stimulus package. Today, we expect important economic reports from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.24
The greenback has continued its growth against its main competitors. The demand for safe assets is still quite high due to the renewed increase in the incidence of COVID-19 in many countries around the world. Today, we recommend paying attention to the news feed from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.23
The US currency is strengthening against other currencies. The United States House of Representatives approved a government funding bill. Yesterday, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced the introduction of restrictive measures in England to combat COVID-19. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.21
Currency majors move in different directions. Investors expect a series of speeches by the Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Also, financial markets participants are concerned about the likely re-quarantine in the UK. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.17
Currency majors move in different directions. Investors assess the results of the Fed meeting. The Bank of England meeting is expected today, at which a decision on the key interest rate will be made. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.15
The US dollar has declined against a basket of currency majors amid growing interest for risk. As it became known, AstraZeneca has resumed the latest trials of the COVID-19 vaccine. Today, investors expect economic reports on the UK labor market. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.14
Currency pairs move in different directions. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the Fed meeting. Financial market participants are afraid that the deal between the EU and the UK will not come into force. Positions should be opened from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.11
Currency majors move in different directions. As expected, the ECB kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. The British pound has updated its local lows again due to uncertainty concerning Brexit. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.10
During yesterday's trading session, currency majors strengthened against the greenback. Today, the ECB meeting will be the key event. We also recommend paying attention to economic reports from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.09
The greenback has strengthened significantly against its main competitors. The conflict between Washington and Beijing has come to the fore again. The US currency has the potential for further growth. Today, the Bank of Canada meeting is in the spotlight. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.08
Currency majors show a variety of trends. Investors expect the ECB meeting, which will be held later this week. The British pound is under pressure due to Brexit uncertainty. Japan's GDP has shown the strongest decline. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.07
Currency majors are consolidating. Financial market participants assess the US labor market report for August, which turned out to be quite optimistic. Investors expect the ECB meeting later this week. Today, the news feed is calm. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.04
The US dollar has become stable against a basket of world currencies. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of reports on the US and Canadian labor markets, which may have a significant impact on the dynamics of currency majors. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.03
The greenback continues to recover against its main competitors. The dollar index has updated local highs. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the US labor market report for August, which will be published tomorrow. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.02
The US dollar has become stable against a basket of world currencies. Investors have started partially fixing positions on the greenback after a prolonged fall. The dollar index has the potential for further correction. We expect important economic releases from the US. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.09.01
The greenback continues to lose ground against the basket of world currencies due to increased expectations that the Fed rates will remain lower than those of other Central Banks. Today, we expect the publication of important economic releases from Germany, the UK, the Eurozone and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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Hot News  – 2020.08.31
On Tuesday, September 01, at 07:30 (GMT+3:00), the Central Bank of Australia will announce its decision on the key interest rate.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.31
The greenback has become stable against its main competitors after a decline last week. The Fed has approved a new strategy allowing inflation to rise above 2%. The regulator plans to keep interest rates low for a long time. Today, the news feed is quite calm. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.28
The greenback has been declining against its main competitors after the speech by the Fed Chairman. Jerome Powell said that the Central Bank had approved a new strategy for monetary policy. Today, investors will assess Canada's GDP report. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.27
The greenback shows ambiguous results against its main competitors. Investors are focused on today's speech by the Fed Chairman at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole. Trading activity and volatility may increase significantly. Today, we also expect important economic reports from the US.
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Hot News  – 2020.08.27
Today, Jerome Powell is going to rise to speak at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium at 4:10 pm (GMT+3:00). During his address, he will talk about the revision of the monetary policy by the Fed.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.26
The US dollar continues to show a variety of trends against its main competitors. Financial market participants expect a speech by the Fed Chairman at the annual symposium in Jackson Hole, which will be held on August 27-28. The US durable goods orders report will be the key event today. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.25
The greenback shows a variety of trends against the basket of world currencies. The key event this week will be a speech by the head of the Fed at a symposium in Jackson Hole. Today investors will assess important economic reports from Germany and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.21
Currency majors are consolidating. The greenback demand has weakened slightly amid rising jobless claims and declining US treasury yields. ECB representatives do not exclude that the Eurozone economy will need additional financial stimulus this autumn. Today, we expect a number of important economic releases.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.20
The greenback has strengthened significantly against its main competitors after the publication of the FOMC minutes. Central Bank officials believe that the American economy will need additional financial stimulus, but the deadline is still undefined. Today, investors will assess the ECB account of monetary policy meeting, as well as economic releases from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.19
The greenback continues to lose ground against a basket of world currencies. The dollar index has updated two-year lows. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of the FOMC minutes. This report may have a significant impact on the further alignment of forces on the currency majors. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.18
The US currency continues to lose ground against its main competitors. The greenback is under pressure due to uncertainty concerning a new stimulus package in the US and ongoing tension between Beijing and Washington. Investors expect the FOMC minutes. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.17
The greenback has been declining again relative to a basket of world currencies. American currency is still under pressure due to uncertainty concerning the adoption of a new package of measures to support the US economy. Financial market participants expect the FOMC minutes, which will be published later this week. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.14
The greenback shows a variety of trends against its main competitors. Investors expect a report on US retail sales. We also recommend following the latest information regarding the adoption of the new stimulus package for the US economy. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.13
The greenback has weakened again relative to its main competitors. The US currency is still under pressure due to disagreements between Republicans and Democrats over additional stimulus for the US economy. At the moment, currency majors are consolidating. We expect statistics on the US labor market.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.12
Currency majors show ambiguous results. The dollar index continues to hold the current levels. The demand for greenback is supported by the growth of US government bonds yield. The UK reported that the country's GDP decreased by 20.4% (q/q) in the second quarter, which is the record reduction among the largest economies. We expect data on inflation in the US.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.11
Currency majors show a variety of trends. The demand for greenback has been partially resumed. Investors continue to monitor the adoption of a new package of measures to support the US economy. We expect important economic reports from Germany, the Eurozone and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.10
The greenback has been growing against its main competitors. The US published rather optimistic statistics on the labor market for July, which caused a renewed demand for the American currency. Today, the news feed is calm enough. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.07
Currency majors have become stable. Reports on the labor market in the US and Canada are in the spotlight. Investors also follow the progress of negotiations in Washington on new measures to stimulate the American economy due to the COVID-19 epidemic. Positions should be opened from these marks.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.06
The greenback has continued to lose ground before Friday's US labor market report. At the moment, currency majors are stable. Investors expect additional drivers. A technical correction is possible in the near future. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.05
The greenback has been declining again. The US currency is under pressure due to the fact that US lawmakers couldn't agree on a new stimulus package, as well as a sharp drop in the yield on US government bonds. Today investors will assess important economic releases from the Eurozone and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.04
Currency majors have become stable. There is no defined trend. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. We recommend following up-to-date information regarding the coronavirus pandemic. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.08.03
The greenback has become stable against a basket of world currencies. Investors have started partially fixing positions. Financial market participants are still concerned about the coronavirus pandemic. The US labor market report for July will be the key event in the current trading week. Today we expect economic releases from Germany, the UK and the US.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.31
The US dollar continues to lose ground against its main competitors. The greenback is still under pressure after the biggest decline in US GDP ever. In the second quarter, the country's economy slowed down by 32.9%. At the moment, currency majors have become stable. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.30
The greenback has become stable against a basket of world currencies. Investors assess the Fed meeting. The regulator, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. The central bank has reported that support for the economy will continue. We expect important economic reports from Germany and the US.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.29
The US dollar continued to lose ground against its main competitors. At the moment, the dollar index is stable. The Fed meeting is in the spotlight. It is expected that the regulator will keep the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. We recommend paying attention to the comments by the representatives of the Central Bank. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.28
The greenback has weakened again relative to a basket of world currencies. At the moment, the dollar index is stable. Investors have started partially fixing positions before the Fed meeting. On Monday, Senate Republicans presented a $1 trillion stimulus plan for the economy. We expect economic reports from the US. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.27
The greenback continues to lose ground against its main competitors. Investors expect the Fed meeting this week. We also recommend following the latest information regarding the conflict between Washington and Beijing. Today, economic reports from the US are in the spotlight.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.24
The greenback has weakened again relative to its main competitors. The euro and the British pound are supported by positive economic releases. Relations between the US and China continue to escalate. We expect economic reports from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.23
The US dollar continues to lose ground against a basket of world currencies. Relations between Washington and China have escalated again. A weak report on existing home sales in the US put additional pressure on the American currency. Today, investors will assess jobless claims in the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.22
The greenback has weakened significantly against its main competitors. At the moment, currency majors are stable. Investors’ concerns about the coronavirus pandemic have escalated again. The number of infected in the world has exceeded 15 million. The leaders of the EU countries reached an agreement on a plan for economic recovery $2 trillion worth after four days of negotiations. We expect economic releases from Canada and the US.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.21
The greenback has weakened against its main competitors. The demand for risky assets has grown. Sentiment in financial markets has been improved after Oxford University reported significant advances in the development of a vaccine for COVID-19. EU leaders have agreed on a plan and budget for economic recovery in the region. We expect important economic reports from Canada.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.20
On Friday, the US dollar index has updated local lows and closed in the negative zone. Investors are still concerned about the growth of the number of people infected with COVID-19. The EU summit in Brussels, where the leaders of the countries discuss the bloc's budget for 2021-2027 and an anti-crisis economic recovery plan, is in the spotlight. The central bank of China left its key rate unchanged for the third month in a row.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.17
Currency majors show ambiguous results. The ECB, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. An optimistic report on retail sales in the US for June supported the greenback. Investors are concerned about the growing number of people infected with COVID-19. We expect important statistics from the Eurozone and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.16
Currency majors show a variety of trends. The Bank of Canada, as expected, has kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. Today, the ECB meeting, as well as important economic releases from the US, are in the spotlight. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.15
The greenback has weakened against its main competitors. Some Fed representatives believe that the regulator will have to resort again to lower interest rates in the near future. The Bank of Canada meeting is in the spotlight. We recommend paying attention to the Fed's "Beige Book". Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.14
The greenback has strengthened against its main competitors. The second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic is still in the spotlight. Great Britain published a weak report on the country's GDP. We expect important economic releases from Germany and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast – 2020.07.13
Currency majors have become stable. Sentiment in financial markets continues to deteriorate amid the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. The number of infected in the world has reached 13 million. Today we recommend paying attention to the speech by the head of the Bank of England. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.07.10
Demand for risky assets has weakened amid a record number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States. Investors are afraid of possible introduction of new restrictive measures. We expect important economic reports from the USA and Canada. It's recommended to open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.07.09
Greenback has weakened against its main competitors. The United States has recorded a new world record for COVID-19 infections. The UK government has introduced a new plan to support the economy in a crisis. Today, the focus is on data on jobless claims in the United States. Positions must be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.07.08
Currency majors show multidirectional dynamics. Demand for risky assets remains at a fairly low level. Some countries have begun to apply quarantine measures again due to increased coronavirus infection. Today we recommend you to pay attention to the economic forecasts of the EU and the hearing of the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee. Positions must be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.07.07
Greenback has been growing relative to its main competitors. Demand for risky assets has weakened amid new outbreaks of coronavirus disease. Investors are concerned about the possible return of restrictive measures. Optimistic economic releases from the United States support the US currency. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.07.06
Currency majors show a variety of trends. Investors are worried about new outbreaks of coronavirus cases. Today, the focus is on economic releases from the United States. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.07.03
Majors are consolidating. The United States published a rather optimistic report on the US labor market for June. At the same time, the dollar index has kept current highs. Investors are concerned about a new wave of the coronavirus epidemic. Today, the publication of important economic releases is not planned. US financial markets will be closed due to the holiday.
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The Forecast  – 2020.07.02
The greenback is losing ground against major competitors before the US labor market report for June. These statistics may have a significant impact on the dynamics of currency majors. Investors are still concerned about the rapid increase in the number of infected with COVID-19, which may cause even greater damage to the global economy. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.07.01
Currency majors show a variety of trends. The loonie and the Japanese yen have been growing against the greenback. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes, as well as important economic releases from Germany, the UK and the US. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.30
Currency majors show a variety of trends. The demand for risky assets has been resumed amid signs of global economic recovery. Financial market participants expect a speech by the Fed Chairman. The British pound is still under pressure amid weak UK GDP report. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.26
Currency majors are consolidating. The demand for risky assets has weakened again. Investors are worried about the rapid increase in the number of infected with COVID-19, which may cause even greater damage to the global economy. We expect economic releases from the US. We also recommend paying attention to the speech by the head of the ECB. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.24
Currency majors have become stable. Investors expect additional drivers. The demand for risky currencies has resumed after comments by White House Trading Adviser Peter Navarro. The official said that the trade deal with China remains in force. We expect important economic reports from Germany. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.23
The greenback has weakened against its main competitors. The White House announced the development of a new $1 trillion stimulus package. Today, we expect the release of important statistics from Germany, the UK, the Eurozone and the US. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.22
Currency majors are consolidating. Investors expect additional drivers. Demand for risky assets is still quite low amid growing concerns about the beginning of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Today we recommend paying attention to economic releases from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.19
The greenback has strengthened against its main competitors. The demand for risky assets is still low amid growing concerns about the second wave of the COVID-19 epidemic. The tension between Washington and Beijing has come to the fore again. We recommend paying attention to economic reports from Canada, a summit of EU leaders, as well as to the speech by the Fed Chairman.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.18
Currency majors are consolidating. The demand for risky assets is still low. Investors are concerned about the growing number of new cases of the COVID-19 virus. We expect the Bank of England meeting. We also recommend paying attention to economic reports from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.17
The demand for risky assets has weakened again. Investors are concerned about the second outbreak of coronavirus. The Fed Chairman Jerome Powell confirmed the grim picture of the prospects for economic recovery in the US. We expect data on the real estate market in the United States, as well as a speech by the Fed Chairman. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.16
The demand for risky assets has resumed. The sentiment in the financial markets has been improved slightly after the Fed announced the start of the purchase of corporate bonds to support the country's economy, which has been significantly affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. Today, speech by the Fed Chairman is in the spotlight. We also recommend paying attention to the US retail sales report.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.15
The greenback has recovered part of the losses against its main competitors. The demand for risky assets continues to weaken. Financial market participants are concerned about the second outbreak of coronavirus. Investors expect a speech by the Fed Chairman, which will be held tomorrow. Jerome Powell should report for the half year on the monetary policy of the Central Bank. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.12
The demand for risky assets has weakened. The greenback has strengthened against main competitors. Investors are concerned about the second wave of coronavirus outbreak. The UK has published weak economic reports. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.11
Currency majors have become stable. Investors assess the results of the Fed meeting. The regulator does not plan to raise interest rates, at least until the end of 2022. The Central Bank intends to continue to support the national economy, which has been suffered significantly by the COVID-19 pandemic. Today, we expect important economic reports from the US. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.10
Currency majors are consolidating. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the announcement of the results of the two-day Fed meeting. It is expected that the regulator will keep the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.09
The greenback has become stable against major competitors. Investors have started partially fixing positions before the Fed meeting. We recommend following up-to-date information regarding the conflict between Washington and Beijing. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.05
The single currency and the British pound have continued to grow against the greenback. Investors assess the ECB meeting. We expect reports on the labor market in the US and Canada. We recommend paying attention to the difference between the actual and forecasted values. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.04
Currency majors have become stable. In the near future, a technical correction is possible. Investors have taken a wait-and-see attitude before today's ECB meeting. The Bank of Canada has kept its key interest rate unchanged. We also recommend paying attention to economic reports from the UK and the US.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.03
The greenback has continued to lose ground against currency majors. The demand for risky assets is still high amid hopes of a recovery in the global economy. The Bank of Canada meeting is in the spotlight. We also recommend paying attention to economic reports from Germany, the UK and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.02
The greenback has continued to lose ground against a basket of world currencies. The demand for risky assets is still high amid hopes of a recovery in the global economy. Investors continue to monitor the conflict between Washington and Beijing, as well as mass protests throughout the United States. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.06.01
Last week, the greenback significantly weakened against its main competitors. Currency majors are currently consolidating. Investors expect meetings of key central banks and the US labor market report for May. We recommend following up-to-date information regarding the conflict between Washington and Beijing. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.29
The single currency continues to show a positive trend. The US has published weak economic releases again. Currency majors are currently consolidating. The conflict between Washington and Beijing is still in the spotlight. Demand for "safe-haven" currencies remains at a high level. We expect the speech by the Fed Chairman, as well as the publication of important statistics.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.28
Currency majors show ambiguous results. The European Commission has proposed a package of measures 1.85 trillion euros worth to restore the economy from the COVID-19 epidemic. According to the Fed's Beige Book, economic activity has slowed down sharply in most regions. Today, important economic reports from the US are in the spotlight. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.27
The greenback has weakened significantly against its main competitors. The demand for risky assets is still high amid the gradual lifting of restrictions around the world. Additional support is provided by the hope of creating a vaccine against the COVID-19 virus. Today, investors will assess the Fed's "Beige Book", which will show the economic condition of 12 US federal districts in a crisis.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.26
The greenback has weakened against a basket of world currencies. The demand for risky assets has grown amid the gradual lifting of restrictions imposed to fight the COVID-19 epidemic worldwide. The Bank of Japan does not exclude the introduction of additional economic stimulus measures to mitigate the consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. Today, investors will assess economic releases from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.25
The greenback has strengthened against its main competitors. Demand for risky assets is still low enough amid rising tensions between the US and China. Today we expect important economic releases from Germany. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.22
The greenback has strengthened against its main competitors. The demand for risky assets has weakened amid a new wave of tension between Washington and Beijing. The UK has published a weak retail sales report. The Bank of Japan will allocate about $279 billion to support the small business affected by the COVID-19 epidemic and prevent a recession in the economy. We expect the ECB meeting account and economic releases from Canada.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.21
There is a variety of trends on currency majors. Investors assess the FOMC meeting minutes. The regulator plans to keep rates near zero until there is confidence in a stable recovery in the US economy. We expect important economic releases from Germany, the Eurozone and the US. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.20
The news that France and Germany have taken a joint initiative to create a €500bn EU rescue fund supports the euro. Currency majors are currently consolidating. The FOMC meeting minutes are in the focus of attention. Investors will also assess inflation data in the Eurozone and Canada. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.19
The greenback has weakened significantly against its main competitors. Demand for risky assets has grown after US pharmaceutical company Moderna announced preliminary positive test results for a potential vaccine against the COVID-19 virus. We expect important economic reports from Germany, the Eurozone and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.18
Currency majors have become stable. The conflict between Washington and Beijing has escalated again. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the US economy could fell to 30% in the second quarter. The loonie is supported by the recovery of oil quotes. Japan published a weak report on the country's GDP. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.15
There is a variety of trends on currency majors. The British pound is still under pressure since the Bank of England does not exclude the possibility of reducing the base rate to a negative level. The loonie is supported by the recovery of oil quotes. We expect important economic releases from Germany and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.14
The greenback has strengthened relative to its main competitors after a speech by the Fed Chairman. The official denied rumors that the Central Bank may introduce negative interest rates. Jerome Powell also said the US economy could face a long recovery period due to the COVID-19 epidemic. We expect data on the initial jobless claims in the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.13
The US dollar has weakened against its main competitors. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors assess the UK GDP report. We expect economic releases from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.12
The US dollar has strengthened against currency majors. The demand for safe assets has grown. Investors and politicians are concerned about the second outbreak of the COVID-19 after a number of restrictions were lifted in most countries. We expect US inflation data. We also recommend paying attention to the speeches by FOMC representatives. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.11
There is a variety of trends on currency majors. Financial market participants assess a report on the US labor market for April. Today, London and Brussels will resume negotiations on relations after Brexit. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.08
Currency majors have become stable. Investors have started partially fixing greenback positions before today's US labor market report. Experts forecast a decrease in the number of jobs in the US economy by 22.1 million in April. The unemployment rate will reach 16.0%. We recommend paying attention to the difference between the actual and forecasted values. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.07
The greenback has updated local highs against major competitors. The demand for risky assets is still low. Investors assess the Bank of England meeting. The regulator, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. We expect important economic reports from the US and Canada. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.06
There is a variety of trends on currency majors. The single currency is under pressure after an unexpected decision of the Federal Constitutional Court of Germany. The demand for "safe haven" currencies is still high. We expect important economic releases from the UK, the Eurozone and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.05
The greenback has strengthened against its main competitors. The demand for safe assets has grown amid fears of a renewed trade war between Washington and Beijing. The ECB forecasts that Eurozone GDP in 2020 will fall by 5.5%. The Canadian dollar is supported by price recovery in the "black gold" market. We expect important economic releases from the UK and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.05.04
The greenback significantly strengthened against its main competitors. The demand for risky assets has weakened. Washington is considering imposing new sanctions against Beijing, finding it guilty of the COVID-19 epidemic. The number of coronavirus infected in the world exceeded 3.5 million. We expect economic reports from Germany. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.30
The greenback demand has weakened after the Fed meeting. The regulator kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. The Central Bank expects a decline in key economic indicators in the second quarter. The greenback is under pressure due to weak data on US GDP in the first quarter. Today, the ECB meeting is in the spotlight. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.29
The dollar index has been declining. The greenback demand has weakened before the Fed meeting. It is expected that the regulator will leave the key marks of monetary policy unchanged. We recommend paying attention to the comments by representatives of the Central Bank. Investors will also assess important economic releases from the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.28
Currency majors are consolidating. Demand for risky assets has started resuming amid reduced restrictions in most countries of the world. Investors expect the Fed and the ECB meetings which will be held this week. Today, financial market participants will assess economic releases from the US. Positions should be opened from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.27
The dollar index has been declining. Investors have started fixing greenback positions partially. Financial market participants continue to assess the risks and impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the global economy. The Bank of Japan, as expected, kept key interest rates unchanged. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.24
Currency majors show a variety of trends. The euro is under pressure due to weak indicators of economic activity in Germany and the Eurozone. The U.S. House of Representatives has approved a new bill on measures to support the economy. Today, investors will assess important statistics from Germany and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.23
The US dollar has strengthened again relative to currency majors. The greenback demand is still high. We expect the meeting of EU leaders, as well as the publication of important economic releases from Germany, the Eurozone, the UK and the US. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.22
The US dollar has continued to grow against its main competitors. Financial market participants continue to assess the effects of the coronavirus pandemic. The loonie is still under pressure amid aggressive sales in the "black gold" market. We expect economic reports from Canada. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.21
The greenback shows mixed results against major competitors. Financial markets participants expect additional drivers. The loonie is under pressure due to a sharp collapse in prices in the "black gold" market. Today, investors will assess important economic reports from Germany and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.17
The greenback continued its growth relative to a basket of world currencies. Investors continue to assess the risks of the further spread of the COVID-19 virus and its impact on the global economy. The Canadian dollar is under pressure due to aggressive sales in the "black gold" market. We expect a report on inflation in the Eurozone.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.16
The greenback has strengthened relative to its main competitors despite the publication of pessimistic economic releases. Demand for risky assets has significantly weakened amid the further spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank of Canada, as expected, kept the key marks of monetary policy at the same level. We expect important statistics from Germany and the US. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.15
The greenback has continued to lose ground. Currency majors are currently consolidating. The Bank of Canada meeting and economic releases from the US are in the spotlight. Demand for the "safe haven" currencies is still high. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.14
The US dollar continues to lose ground against currency majors. Chinese exports and imports slowed down the decline in March after falling earlier this year. Demand for the "safe haven" currencies is still high. Today, the publication of important economic releases is not planned. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.13
The greenback is losing ground relative to major competitors. The potential for further decline remains. The coronavirus pandemic is still in the spotlight. Today, the publication of important economic releases is not planned. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.10
The dollar index shows negative dynamics. Greenback demand has weakened amid Fed stimulus measures, as well as an increase in initial jobless claims. Today, investors will assess data on inflation in the US. Trading activity may be reduced due to holidays in most countries of the world. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.09
Currency majors show a variety of trends. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. Today, the ECB monetary policy meeting account is in the focus of attention. Investors will also assess important economic reports from the US and Canada. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.08
Currency majors are consolidating. There is no defined trend. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of the FOMC meeting minutes. We recommend paying attention to the comments by representatives of the regulator. The COVID-19 epidemic is still in the focus of attention. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.07
There is a variety of trends on currency majors. Investors expect additional drivers. Today, senior eurozone officials should hold a videoconference to agree on economic measures in the context of the COVID-19 epidemic. We expect economic releases from the UK. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.06
On Friday, the US published a weak labor market report for March. At the same time, the demand for greenback is still high. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was hospitalized for an examination. We expect economic reports from the UK. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.03
There is a variety of trends on currency majors. The coronavirus epidemic continues to impact the global economy negatively. Financial market participants have taken a wait-and-see attitude before the publication of US labor statistics for March. We recommend paying attention to the difference between the actual and forecasted values. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.02
Currency majors show a variety of trends. The COVID-19 pandemic continues to impact the global economy negatively. Demand for the "safe haven" currencies is still high. Today we expect economic releases from the UK and the US. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.04.01
The greenback has become stable against major competitors. Financial market participants expect additional drivers. Today, investors will assess important statistics from Germany, the UK and the US. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.31
Currency majors stabilized. Investors continue to evaluate the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on the global economy. Demand for safe haven currencies remains high. We are expecting important economic releases from Germany, Canada and the USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.30
Еhe coronavirus pandemic continues to negatively impact the global economy. Greenback remains under pressure relative to its main competitors. Demand for safe haven currencies has grown significantly. We are expecting economic reports from the USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.27
Greenback significantly weakened relative to its main competitors. The COVID-19 virus epidemic continues to negatively impact the global economy. The US Department of Labor reported that the number of initial applications for unemployment benefits has reached a record level. The Bank of England, as expected, kept the basic parameters of monetary policy at the same level. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.26
Greenback continues to lose ground relative to major competitors. The US Senate supported a bill worth $2 trillion, which aims to mitigate the economic consequences of the coronavirus pandemic. Investors expect a meeting of the Bank of England and data on the number of initial jobless claims in the United States. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.25
Greenback has moved downwards against its main competitors. Further correction remains possible. US senators and White House officials have agreed on an incentive package to mitigate the economic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. We expect economic reports from Germany and USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.24
Major currencies have stabilized against greenback. The US Federal Reserve has introduced a new range of incentive programs. The British Prime Minister has imposed a strict quarantine on the country. We expect important economic releases from Germany, EU and the US. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.23
Currency majors have stabilized. The spread of the COVID-19 virus and its impact on the global economy remains the focus of investors' attention. No important economic releases are planned today. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.20
USD has weakened in relation to its main competitors. Financial market sentiment improved slightly against the backdrop of global central bank support measures. The CAD is supported by the recovery of oil quotations. We expect important statistics from Canada and USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.19
Greenback continued its growth against its main competitors. The ECB and the Fed announced new stimulus programs to combat the effects of the virus crisis. The British pound reached its lowest level against the dollar since 1985. The CAD continues to lose ground. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.18
USD has strengthened against its main competitors. Demand for American currency rose after Donald Trump's statements. GBP reached the mark of $1.20. The CAD is under pressure from a significant drop in "black gold" prices. We expect important statistics from Eurozone, USA and Canada. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.17
The main currency pairs demonstrate a variety of trends. Investors continue to assess the risks of further spread of the COVID-19 virus and its impact on the global economy. Today we expect important economic releases from the UK, Germany and the USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.16
Currency majors show mixed results. The spread of the COVID-19 virus remains in the spotlight. The US Federal Reserve has drastically reduced the key interest rate range. The Bank of Japan has announced an increase in stimulus measures. GBP reached a six-month low relative to greenback. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.13
The ECB kept key interest rates at their previous levels. The regulator will increase its asset buyback program by €120 billion by the end of 2020. Investors continue to assess the risks of COVID-19 virus spread and its impact on the global economy. Sterling has collapsed significantly. At the moment the currency majors are consolidating. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.06
USD continues to lose ground against its main competitors. The U.S. currency is under pressure from the prospects of further reduction of interest rates by the Fed. Participants of financial markets took are waiting for the publication of reports on the labor market of the USA and Canada. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.05
Currency majors have stabilized. Investors continue to assess the risks of COVID-19 virus spread. USD is under pressure from the prospects for further easing of the Fed's monetary policy. The Bank of Canada reduced its key interest rate. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.04
USD shows a steady downward trend against a basket of world currencies. The Fed has sharply reduced its key interest rate range by 50 basis points. The demand for the safe haven currencies remains at a high level. Bank of Canada meeting is in the spotlight. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.03
USD continues to lose positions against the single currency. The US dollar remains under pressure amid growing expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates at the next meeting. GBP/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY are trading steadily. Investors are waiting for additional drivers. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.03.02
Currency majors demonstrate a variety of trends. Demand for USD has decreased significantly. Financial market participants expect the Fed to lower the key interest rate range at the next meeting. The CAD is supported by the recovery of oil quotations. We expect important economic releases from Germany, UK and USA. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.28
Trading activity and volatility on major currency pairs has increased significantly. The demand for greenback has decreased. Investors have bet on the fact that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to compensate for the impact of the spreading coronavirus. The CAD is under pressure from a significant drop in oil quotes. We expect important economic reports from Germany, Canada and USA.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.27
Currency majors demonstrate multi-directional dynamics. Investors are closely monitoring the situation with the spread of coronavirus COVID-19 outside China. The Canadian dollar continues to be under pressure from the negative dynamics of oil quotations. Today, the statistical data on the US economy is in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.26
USD has weakened against its main competitors. Investors are concerned about the spread of the Covid-19 coronavirus outside China, which could lead to a serious decline in the world economy. We expect economic reports from the USA. We recommend paying attention to the speeches of ECB head and FOMC representatives.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.25
Currency majors show mixed results. Investors started partially fixing positions on greenback. The CAD is under pressure from a significant collapse of oil quotations. Demand for safe haven currencies has resumed. We expect important statistics from the USA. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.24
Currency majors show a variety of trends. Investors are still concerned about the spread of coronavirus outside of China. Today, financial market participants will assess economic releases from Germany. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.21
Currency majors show mixed results. Demand for greenback remains high. The yen keeps losing positions against the US dollar. We expect important statistics from UK, EU, Canada and USA to be published. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.20
Financial market participants are evaluating the FOMC protocols. GBP/USD quotes have moved down. The Japanese yen has considerably weakened. Today we expect important economic reports from UK, EU and the USA. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.19
The EUR keeps losing positions against the USD. At the moment the currency majors are consolidating. Investors took a waiting position before the publication of the FOMC Minutes. We also recommend you to pay attention to the economic reports from the UK, Canada and the USA. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.18
The currency majors are consolidating. The technical pattern is mixed. Investors are waiting for additional drivers. Today, participants of financial markets will estimate important statistics from UK, Germany and EU. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.17
Major currency pairs have stabilized. Investors are waiting for additional drivers. Euro is testing three-year lows. The yen is under pressure from weak data on the country's GDP. The US and Canadian financial markets are closed due to the holidays. It is recommended to open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.14
The EUR updated the two-year lows against the USD. GBP/USD quotes went up. The CAD and JPY are consolidating. Coronavirus outbreak in China still remains in the focus of investors' attention. We expect important economic releases from Eurozone and USA. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.13
The single currency continues to lose ground relative to the greenback. Demand for CAD has resumed. GBP and JPY are consolidating. Financial market participants expect important economic reports from the United States. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.12
Currency majors have become stable. Financial market participants assess the speech by Fed Chairman. Demand for the British pound and the Canadian dollar has been resumed. Today, the news feed is fairly calm. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.11
Euro continues to lose ground against USD. At the moment the currency majors are consolidated. Investors are waiting for important economic releases from the UK. We also recommend you to pay attention to the statements by the ECB head and FOMC representatives. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.10
Greenbeck has once again strengthened against its main competitors. The US released optimistic labor market statistics for January. Financial market participants continue to assess the risks of further coronavirus expansion from China. Today the news background is calm. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.07
The EUR and the GBP continue to lose ground against the US dollar. USD/CAD and USD/JPY are trading steadily. Participants of financial markets took a wait-and-see approach before the publication of reports on the labor market of the U.S. and Canada. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.06
USD continued its growth against its main competitors. The US currency was supported by positive economic releases. The CAD has stabilized. Demand for safe haven currencies has weakened considerably. The news background is calm today. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.05
Greenback has stabilized against its main competitors. Investors are expecting additional drivers. Demand for safe haven currencies has weakened considerably. Today participants of financial markets will appreciate important economic releases from EU, UK and USA. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.04
Currency majors show mixed results. Sterling collapsed after comments from British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. Negative dynamics of oil quotes continue to put pressure on the CAD. We expect important statistics from Great Britain. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.02.03
Greenback has weakened considerably against world currencies. The possibility of further decline remains. The coronavirus outbreak in China continues to be the focus of financial market participants. Today we expect the publication of important statistics from Germany, UK and USA. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.31
Currency majors demonstrate a variety of trends. The Bank of England, as expected, kept the main parameters of monetary policy at the same level. We expect the publication of important statistics from EU, USA and Canada. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.30
The Fed, as expected, maintained its key interest rate range at 1.50%-1.75%. The regulator noted the stability of the labor market. Investors are waiting for the Bank of England meeting. We recommend you to pay attention to economic reports from Germany and the USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.29
Major currency pairs are traded steadily. The focus is on the Fed meeting. Financial markets participants expect the regulator to keep the main parameters of monetary policy at the same level. We recommend you to pay attention to comments and rhetoric of the Central Bank representatives. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.28
The main currency pairs demonstrate a variety of trends. Investors are waiting for the Fed meeting, which is scheduled for January 29. Today, participants of financial markets will assess important statistical reports on the US economy. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.27
Currency majors demonstrate a variety of trends. The CAD is under pressure from the negative dynamics of oil quotes. Demand for the currencies of the quiet harbor remains at a high enough level. We expect important economic releases from Germany and the USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.24
Currency majors are consolidating. Euro remains under pressure after the ECB meeting. The regulator kept the main parameters of monetary policy at the same level. The central bank plans to further stimulate the economy for a long period of time. Demand for the save haven currencies remains at a high level. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.23
Euro trades steadily against greenback. Investors are waiting for ECB meeting. Demand for Japanese yen and pound has resumed. CAD is under pressure after Bank of Canada meeting. We recommend you to open positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.22
Major currency pairs show mixed results. Sterling moved upwards after a positive report on the UK labor market. Investors are waiting for the Bank of Canada meeting. We also recommend to pay attention to economic releases from USA. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.21
Currency majors demonstrate multidirectional dynamics. Greenback demand remains at a fairly high level. The Bank of Japan has maintained the basic parameters of monetary policy at the same level. We are expecting important economic releases from the UK and the USA. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.20
Currency majors are consolidating. Demand for USD remains at a fairly high level. Today the news background is calm. US financial markets will be closed due to the holiday. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.17
Major currency pairs show multidirectional dynamics. Participants in financial markets expect additional drivers. Today, investors will evaluate important economic reports from the UK, the eurozone and the United States. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.16
USD is trading stably relative to its main competitors. Washington and Beijing signed the first phase of the trade agreement. Today, the attention of financial market participants is directed to the publication of the ECB Minutes, as well as economic releases from the United States. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.14
Currency majors show a variety of trends. Investors expect the signing of an interim trade agreement between Washington and Beijing. Demand for safe-haven currencies is still at a rather low level due to the reduction of fears of further escalation of the military conflict between the US and Iran. Today, the US inflation report is in the focus of attention. Positions should be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.13
The dollar index has moved away from local highs. The US has published rather weak labor market statistics for December. We recommend following up-to-date information regarding resolving the conflict in the Middle East, as well as concluding a trade deal between the US and China. Today, investors will assess important economic releases from the UK.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.10
USD is stable against EUR and GBP. The demand for safe currency is weakenening due to deescalation in the Middle East. Investors expect labour reports from US and Canada. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.08
Trading activity and volatility in major currency majors have grown significantly. The focus is on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Demand for safe assets remains at a fairly high level. We recommend that you pay attention to economic releases from the United States. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2020.01.03
Greenback is losing ground against the euro and British pound. Demand for loonie and the currency of the "safe haven" is still at a fairly high level. Today, financial market participants will evaluate important economic releases from Germany, the UK and the US. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.27
Greenback weakened against a basket of world currencies. This movement is largely due to technical factors. Today, the news background is pretty calm. The publication of important economic releases is not planned. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.26
World currency markets remain in a festive mood due to the Christmas holidays. Major pairs have no defined trends. USD has slightly moved up, the newsfeed is calm. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.24
USD is trading stably against the basket of world currencies. Trading activity and volatility decreased on the eve of the Christmas holidays. The GBP is still under pressure. Today the news background is calm. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.23
Greenback is stable against major currencies. This week, trading activity and volatility may be reduced due to the Christmas holidays. Financial market participants expect important economic releases from the US and Canada. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.20
Currency majors show mixed results. The GBP is still under pressure. Demand for the safe haven currency has resumed. Investors expect publication of important statistics from the UK, Canada and the United States. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.19
Currency majors show mixed results. Investors expect additional drivers. Today, the Bank of England will announce its decision on a key interest rate. The Central Bank of Japan has maintained the basic parameters of monetary policy at the same level. We recommend you to pay attention to the statistical data from the United States. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.18
Greenback is stable against currency majors. Demand for the GBP has weakened significantly. Today, investors will be watching the economic events in UK, Germany and Canada. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.17
USD stabilized against major currency majors. Investors continue to monitor trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as the situation around Brexit. Today we expect important economic reports from the UK and the USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.16
The majors demonstrate a variety of trends. Investors continue to monitor trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Demand for the GDP remains high after the victory of the ruling party in the UK elections. Today, investors will evaluate important releases on business activity in Germany, the EU and the UK. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.13
Trading activity and volatility has grown across the majors. ECB kept the monetary policy parameters at the same levels. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.12
The USD fell against a basket of major currencies after the Fed's decision on the interest rate and its further statements. At the moment, the technical pattern is ambiguous. Investors are watching parliamentary elections in the UK. Open positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.11
The technical pattern is inconsistent for the major currencies. An optimistic UK economy report was published yesterday. Today we expect a decision on the US interest rate from Fed. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.10
The majors are consolidating, the technical pattern is ambiguous. Investors are waiting for additional drivers. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.09
On Friday, the USD strengthened due to the publication of optimistic economic data. Today, the majors are consolidating. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.06
There is a variety of trends among majors yet no defined ones. Investors expect important reports from US and Canada. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.05
USD has weakened significantly against a basket of major currencies. The USD is under pressure from weak economic data and an unclear situation around US-China trade relations. We recommend keeping track of current news. Open positions from key marks.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.04
The US dollar weakened against a basket of major currencies after statements by D. Trump regarding the US-China trade agreement. We expect important economic statistics from the UK, USA and Canada. Positions should be opened from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.03
The USD weakened against a basket of currencies after the publication of weak economic statistics. We recommend that you keep track of the up-to-date information regarding US-China trade relations, as well as Brexit news. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.12.02
On Friday, a variety of trends was observed in the foreign exchange markets. Relations between China and the US have become more complicated due to the recent actions of D. Trump. The signing of an interim agreement is not as likely. We recommend you to keep track of current information on this issue and open positions from key marks.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.29
The majors are consolidating. The China/US relationship is in the spotlight. We expect important reports from EU and Canada. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.28
Major currency pairs show a variety of trends. The United States has published a number of controversial economic releases. Today, volatility may be reduced as US financial markets are closed due to Thanksgiving. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.27
Currency majors are consolidated. Investors continue to monitor trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Today we expect the publication of important economic releases from the United States. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.26
Currency majors show a variety of trends. Investors expect additional drivers. The spotlight is on trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. We are expecting important economic releases from the USA. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.25
Major currency pairs show a variety of trends. Demand for safe haven currencies has weakened amid positive news on the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Today we expect important reports from Germany. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.22
Majors show а variety of trends. Financial market participants continue to monitor the situation around US-China trade negotiations. We expect data on business activity in Germany, the eurozone and the UK. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.21
Major currency pairs have stabilized. According to the FOMC Minutes, the Fed will not need to further reduce its key interest rate. Demand for quiet harbor currencies remains at a fairly high level. We look forward to the publication of important economic releases. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.20
USD stabilized against its main competitors before the publication of the FOMC Ьштгеуы. Pressure on CAD is exerted by the negative dynamics of oil prices. Demand for safe haven currencies remains at a fairly high level. We also recommend paying attention to economic releases from Canada. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.19
The euro and the pound continued to grow relative to the US currency. USD remains under pressure due to the uncertainty in the settlement of the trade conflict between the US and China. A demand for save haven currencies has resumed. We are waiting for reports on the real estate market in the United States. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.18
The US dollar is losing ground relative to major competitors. Sentiments in the financial markets improved amid optimistic news on the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Investors expect up-to-date information regarding the Brexit process. Today the news background is calm. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.15
Currency majors demonstrate a variety of trends. Investors expect up-to-date information regarding the trade agreement between Washington and Beijing, as well as the Brexit process. Today, important economic releases from the EU and the United States will be published. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.14
The US dollar continued to grow relative to its main competitors. The majors are currently consolidating. Demand for currencies of the safe haven has resumed. Today, investors will evaluate important economic releases from the UK and the USA. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.13
The USD has stabilized against currency majors. Financial market participants continue to monitor the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Today we expect important economic reports from the UK and the USA. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.12
Majors show a variety of trends. Investors expect additional drivers. Demand for the GBP has grown significantly. Today, financial market participants will evaluate important economic releases from the UK and Germany. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.11
Last week, the USD significantly strengthened relative to its main competitors. At the moment, currency majors have stabilized. Uncertainty regarding the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing has resumed, which has caused an increase in demand for the safe haven currencies. Today, investors will evaluate important economic releases from the UK. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.08
Greenback continued its growth relative to its main competitors. Demand for the American currency remains at a high level against the backdrop of the prospects for resolving the trade conflict between the United States and China. The Bank of England, as expected, kept the key interest rate unchanged. We are expecting important economic releases from Canada. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.07
EUR and the GBP are losing ground against the USD. Investors continue to monitor the settlement of the trade conflict between US and China. Demand for safe haven currencies remains at a fairly low level. Attention is focused on the Bank of England meeting. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.06
The USD has strengthened significantly in relation to its main competitors. The demand for it rose amid growing prospects for a settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. An additional support for the US currency was provided by a positive PMI report on the US non-manufacturing sector from ISM. The USD index can grow further. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.05
The USD has strengthened its position against of world currencies. The demand for USD resumed amid optimism in resolving the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing in the near future. Today, investors will evaluate important economic releases from the UK and the USA. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.04
Last week, the greenback weakened against a basket of world currencies. The USD index completed the trading session in the red. The United States published a mixed labor report for October. Investors continue to monitor trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing. Today we expect important economic releases from Germany and the UK.
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The Forecast  – 2019.11.01
Major currency pairs have stabilized. Investors took a wait and see attitude before the publication of the US labor market report for October. Experts expect deterioration in key indicators. We recommend that you pay attention to the difference between actual and forecast values. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.31
The USD has weakened against a basket of world currencies. The Fed, as expected, lowered its key interest rate range by 25 basis points to 1.50-1.75%. The central banks of Canada and Japan kept the basic parameters of monetary policy at the same level. Regulators worsened forecasts for GDP growth and inflation. Today, investors will evaluate important economic releases from the EU and the United States. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.30
Greenback is stable against a basket of world currencies. Investors took a wait and see attitude before the meetings of the Bank of Canada and the Fed. Pay attention to the comments and rhetorics of the Central Bank representatives. Consider today's economic releases and open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.29
Major currency pairs show a variety of trends. Investors are waiting for new information regarding the settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, the Brexit process, and the Fed meeting. Today, financial market participants will evaluate important economic reports from the United States. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.28
Last week, the USD recovered a part of its losses against majors. Beijing and Washington said they are close to completing the first phase of the trade agreement. Investors are waiting for the Fed meeting, which is scheduled for October 30. Today, the news feed is calm. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.25
The majors are showing a variety of trends. The ECB has kept the key parameters of monetary policy the same. Expecting important reports from Germany. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.24
Majors show a variety of trends. The ECB meeting is in the spotlight. Investors will evaluate reports from EU, US and Germany.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.23
USD has strengthened its position against a basket of world currencies. Investors began to partially fix positions on the EUR before the ECB meeting. Prospects for resolving the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing support USD. We recommend keeping an eye on the Brexit issue. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.22
USD has stabilized against a basket of world currencies. Demand for the US dollar resumed amid the prospects for a settlement of the trade conflict between Washington and Beijing. Participants in financial markets expect the results of the vote on the Brexit project. Today, investors will evaluate important economic reports from Canada and the United States. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.21
USD keeps losing positions against other majors. GBP has stabilised. The market participants are waiting for new data regarding Brexit. The economic news feed is calm. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.18
EUR and CAD continued to grow against the US dollar. EU representatives and UK parliamentarians have agreed on the Brexit deal. Investors are waiting for the EU summit, at which the lawmakers must approve this agreement. We also recommend you to pay attention to the speeches of FOMC representatives and open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.17
USD continues to lose ground relative to world currencies. Investors are waiting for new information on the settlement of the US/China trade conflict. GBP has stabilized after a significant rally. Today, financial market participants will evaluate important economic releases from the UK and the USA. Positions must be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.16
EUR and CAD show mixed results relative to USD. GBP hit $1.28 after optimistic Brexit news came out. Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing remain in the spotlight. We look forward to the publication of important reports. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.15
Major currency pairs have stabilized. Investors are waiting for new information regarding trade negotiations between the US and China. Optimism over the settlement of the Brexit process began to weaken. Today we expect important economic reports from the UK and Germany. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.11
The USD index ended the trading session in the red. The demand for risky assets grew amid hopes for an interim trade agreement between Washington and Beijing and a settlement of the Brexit process. We are expecting important reports from Canada. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.10
Majors are showing a variety of trends. The market participants are evaluating the FOMC Minutes. Brexit and US/China negotiations are in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.09
Majors demonstrate a variety of trends. The trade conflict between the US and China, as well as the situation around Brexit remain in the spotlight. Today, investors will evaluate the FOMC Minutes, which may indicate the further rate of adjustment of the Fed's monetary policy. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.08
Majors show a variety of trends. Investors continue to monitor a possible impeachment of the US president, the situation around Brexit, and US/China negotiations. Today we expect important economic releases from the USA. Positions must be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.07
The majors are consolidating. The market participants are evaluating the US labour market report for September.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.04
The US dollar stabilized against currency majors. The dollar index can decline further. Expect a report on the US labor market in September.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.03
The USD continued to lose ground relative to currency majors, the pressure is exerted by weak economic releases from the USA. GBP is under pressure.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.02
USD weakened against a basket of world currencies after the release of weak statistics. Today, investors will evaluate reports on US labour market.
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The Forecast  – 2019.10.01
EUR continues to lose ground against the US dollar, the quotes have reached a minimum since May 2017. Market participants expect reports from EU.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.30
The US dollar continues to hold positions relative to a basket of world currencies. The dollar index is consolidating near annual highs.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.27
Major currency pairs show multidirectional dynamics. The euro reached annual lows relative to the USD. The trade conflict between Washington and Beijing, as well as the situation around Brexit, remain in the spotlight. Today we expect the publication of important statistics on the US economy. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.26
The US dollar strengthened against a basket of world currencies. The dollar index reached two-week highs. Investors monitor political instability in the US and the UK. We expect important reports from the US. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.25
Majors show mixed results. Trade negotiations between the US and China, as well as the situation around Brexit, remain in the spotlight. Today, investors will evaluate statistics on the real estate market in the United States. Positions must be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.24
EUR remains under pressure due to weak EU economic reports. The investors are fixing the GBP positions. USD/JPY set the new local minimums.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.23
The majors are showing show a variety of trends. The US/China conflict and Brexit remain in the spotlight. The EU published important reports.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.18
The majors are consolidating. The market participats are waiting for the Fed meeting. Expect the regulator to lower the interest rate to 1,75-2,00%. Investors will evaluate reports from UK, EU and Canada. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.17
Majors are showing a variety of trends. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. The demand for the commodity currencies remains high.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.16
Majors show a variety of trends. The demand demand for commodity currencies grew significantly amid a sharp rally of oil quotes.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.13
ECB softened the monetary policy. The investors are waiting on more info about the Brexit delay. Expect important reports from the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.12
USD recovered against other majors. The market participants are waiting for the ECB meeting.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.11
The dollar index is consolidating near local lows. Majors demonstrate a variety of trends. The yen hit 5-week lows against the USD. Today, investors will evaluate economic data from the United States. We recommend opening positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.10
Foreign currency majors show multidirectional dynamics relative to the US dollar. GBP hit two-month highs amid positive economic releases.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.09
Majors are showing a variety of trends. The US published a mixed labour market report. The investors are watching the US/China negotiations. Expect important reports from the UK and open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.06
USD stabilized against majors. The market pariticipants are waiting for the US and Canada labour market report. A possible Brexit delay supports the pound. Investors keep watching the US/China trading conflict. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.04
The USD retreated from the local maximums but can correct further. The worries about hard Brexit are lessened. The Bank of Canada meeting is in the spotlight. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.03
EUR and GBP are losing ground against the USD. Brexit remains in the spotlight. Today, investors will evaluate releases from the UK and the USA. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.09.02
USD strengthened against the basket of the world currencies. The majors are consolidating. The market participants are watching the US/China conflict.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.30
USD strengthened again in relation to majors. Demand for safe assets has weakened amid optimism in international trade.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.29
Majors are consolidating. There is no defined trend. Demand for the safe assets remain at a fairly high level. Today, investors will evaluate important economic reports from Germany and the United States. Positions must be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.23
Majors are consolidating. Participants in financial markets are waiting for today's speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hall Symposium
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.22
Currency majors are consolidating. According to the FOMC protocols, further adjustment of the monetary policy of the Fed will be determined soon.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.21
The USD retreated from local highs. Currently, the main currency pairs are consolidating. Investors expect the publication of FOMC protocols.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.20
USD holds the three-week maximums. The majors are consolidating. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. The news feed remains calm.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.19
Currency majors show a variety of trends. Investors expect additional drivers. Demand for "safe" assets has weakened. Today, financial market participants will assess data on inflation in the Eurozone. Positions should be opened from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.16
Currency majors show a variety of trends. The demand for greenback has risen after positive economic releases. Today, financial market participants will assess statistics on the real estate market in the US. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.15
Currency majors show a variety of trends. Financial market participants are concerned about a possible inversion of the yield curve of US government bonds. We expect publication of important economic releases from the UK and the US. Positions should be opened from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.14
The US dollar has strengthened again relative to a basket of world currencies. Positive inflation data in the US supported the greenback. Currency majors are currently consolidating. We expect important statistics from the UK. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.13
There is an ambiguous technical pattern on the currency majors. Investors expect additional drivers. The demand for "safe" assets is still at a fairly high level. Today we expect important statistics from the UK, Germany and the US. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.12
The majors show a variety of trends. GBP hit the two-year lows. Demand for "safe" assets remains at a high level amid an escalation of the trade conflict between the US and China.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.09
The majors show different dynamics. Investors continue to monitor the trade conflict between the US and China, as well as the situation around Brexit. Today we expect the publication of important economic releases from the UK, Canada and the USA. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.08
The majors are consolidating. There is no defined trend. The financial market participants are waiting for additonal drivers. The US/China trading conflict remains in the spotlight, as does the Brexit ambiguousness. Open positions from the key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.07
The majors are showing a variety of trends. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. The US/China trading conflict remains in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.06
The dollar index went down. Some investors began to fix their positions. The US currency can decline further. The US/China conflict remains in the spotlight. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.05
The majors are consolidating. The US published an ambiguous labour market report for July. The demand for safe assets remains high due to the US/China trade conflict. We expect important releases on business activity from Germany, UK and the US. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.02
Majors are condolidating. The US labour market report is in the spotlight. Bank of England retained the interest rates and worsened the forecasts.
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The Forecast  – 2019.08.01
The demand for USD has grown after the Fed meeting and the instrument updated the two-year maximums. The price can rise further.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.31
Majors are consolidating. Investors are awaiting the Fed's interest rate decision, as well as the release of important economic reports.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.30
The majors show multiple trends. Investors are waiting for the Fed meeting. GBP is still under pressure due to the growing risks of hard Brexit. GBP/USD quotes hit two-year lows. The Bank of Japan left the main parameters of the monetary policy unchanged. We recommend to open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.29
USD updated 2-month maximums. The investors are waiting for the Fed meeting and the US labour market report. GBP remains under pressure.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.26
ECB kept the monetary policy. The investors are evaluating the comments by Mario Draghi. A hard Brexit possibility puts pressure on the GBP. USD/CAD and USD/JPY updated the local maximums. The US will release a GDP report today. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.25
Majors have a variety of trends. The ECB meeting is in the spotlight. Keep an eye on the comments by the bank representatives.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.24
EUR remains under pressure, the quotes hit a two-month low. Investors continue to monitor the situation around Brexit.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.23
The USD strengthened against majors. Financial market participants started to doubt that the Fed will reduce the interest rate at the next meeting.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.18
The US dollar has weakened against currency majors. The decline in government bond yields and weak data on the US real estate market put pressure on the greenback. Investors expect important economic releases from the UK and the USA.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.17
USD strengthened against the majors. The USD is supported by the positive reports on the retail sales and can grow further.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.16
Majors show an ambiguous technical picture. The market is waiting for additional drivers. The investors will review some important releases today.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.15
Majors are consolidating. The technical picture is ambiguous. The investors are waiting for additionial drivers.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.12
The majors have stabilized. The market participants are waiting for additional drivers. Today the investors will evaluate reports from the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.11
USD weakened after comments by Jerome Powell and may decline further. The official had shown the willingness to reduce rates.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.10
The majors are consolidating. The investors are evaluating the FOMC Minutes. Keep an eye on reports from UK and open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.09
EUR/USD stabilized, GBP remains under pressure due Brexit. CAD and JPY are losing positions. Keep an eye on the Head of Fed`s speech.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.08
USD strengthened against other majors after a positive labour market report in the US, and can grow further. The newsfeed is calm.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.05
The majors are consolidating, the US labour market report is in the spotlight. Keep an eye on the difference between expected and real data.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.04
Majors are consolidating. Investors are waiting for additional drivers. Today, trading activity may be reduced due to the Independence Day in the US. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.03
The majors show a variety of trends. The financial market participants expect the release of important statistics. Open positions from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.02
The USD strengthened against the majors and has a potential for further growth. Today we expect important statistics from the UK.
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The Forecast  – 2019.07.01
The main currency pairs show a variety of trends. Look out for releases from Germany, UK and USA.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.27
Majors demonstrate multidirectional dynamics with respect to the USD. Investors took a wait-and-see approach to the G20 summit.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.26
The USD recovered some of its losses and can correct further. The majors are consolidating. Expect important statistics from the United States.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.25
The majors are consolidating after a long rally. A technical correctio is possible soon. The investors are waiting for the G20.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.24
Majors have significantly strengthened against the USD, which remains under pressure after the Fed meeting and can decline further.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.21
The majors are consolidating after a rapid rally. The USD is under pressure due to Fed`s rhetorics. The USD index can descend further.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.20
The USD index fell due to pressure from the Federal Reserve meeting. The investors are waiting for the Bank of England to announce the interest rate.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.19
The majors are consolidating. The Federal Reserve meeting is in the spotlight. Keep an eye on the comments by the FOMC representatives.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.18
USD has stabilized against other majors before the Federal Reserve meeting. GBP is under pressure due to hard Brexit.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.14
The majors have an ambiguous technical picture. USD remains under pressure. Wait for a retail sales report from the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.12
Majors are still consolidating. Growing expectations of lower interest rates by the Fed is putting pressure on the greenback. We recommend paying attention to the report on inflation in the United States. Positions must be opened from key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.11
The majors are consolidating. The technical picture is ambiguous. The USD is under pressure, the investors are watching the China/US conflict.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.10
USD kept losing positions against the majors and can descend further. The demand is weakened due to a weak May labour market report.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.07
The ECB kept the monetary policy without changes. The majors are consolidating. The US and Canada labour market reports are in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.06
USD recovered after positive business activity reports in the non-industrial sector. The ECB meeting is in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.05
The USD is consolidating near the key minimums. FRS is highly likely to decrease the key rates this year. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.04
The USD weakened against the basket of world currencies. The demand for USD lowered due to the FOMC comments. The USD index can descend further.
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The Forecast  – 2019.06.03
USD weakened against the majors. The trading conflict escalation is in the spotlight. The demand for the safe assets remains high.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.31
The majors have stabilized. The tension in the world trade supports the safe assets. We expect important releases from the Canada and the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.30
USD strengthened against the majors. The trade war escalation is in the spotlight. The investors are waiting for the economic reports from the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.29
The demand for risky assets is weakened. Majors are consolidating. Today we expect new Canadian key interest rate and a German labour market report.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.28
The main currency pairs are consolidating. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. The USD index has prospects for a further correction.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.27
The USD index (#DX) updated the local minimums again. The demand for the USD is weakened. The prospects for further correction remain.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.24
USD started to descend. The further correction remains possible. The trading conflict and loss of bonds` yield put pressure on the USD.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.23
The USD index is testing the annual maximums. The demand for USD remains high. The investors are expecting important releases today.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.22
USD keeps showing a positive trend. The prospects for growth remain. The market participants are waiting for the FOMC Minutes.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.21
USD holds positions against majors and has prospects for further growth. The market participants are evaluating the reports from the UK and the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.20
USD reached two-year maximums regarding world currencies. The prospects for further growth remain. The investors are evaluating the FOMC`s statements.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.17
The USD strengthened against the majors and has prospects for growth. The market participants are waiting for additional drivers.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.16
The technical picture is ambiguous. The USD is consolidating. The investors are waiting for important economic reports from the US. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.15
USD partially recovered against other majors. The market participants are waiting for relevant intel regarding the US/China negotiations.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.14
The US/China trade war remains in the spotlight. The majors are consolidating. Expect important releases from Germany and EU.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.13
The majors are moving sideways. The market participants are waiting for new drivers. Keep an eye on the intel regarding the US/China negotiations.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.10
The majors are consolidating. The market participants are expecting the resolution to the US/China trade deal as well as important economic releases.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.08
The major currencies are consolidating. In the spotlight are the US/China trading negotiations, as well as the latest ECB meeting protocol.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.07
USD remains under pressure. The major currency pairs are consolidating. The demand for safe assets remains high due to the US/China trade conflict.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.06
USD retreated from the local maximums. The investors are evaluating the US Labour market reports. The US/China trading conflict is in the foreground once more.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.03
Demand for USD remains high. The USD index can grow further. The majors are consolidating before the US April Labour Market report.
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The Forecast  – 2019.05.02
Demand for USD has grown after the Federal Reserve comments. Right now the majors are consolidating. The Bank of England meeting is in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.26
The USD index is testing the 2-year maximums. The market participants are waiting for the US GDP report for 2019. The majors are consolidating.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.25
USD grew against other majors. The tendency to further growth remains. The weak reports from Germany hurt the EUR.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.24
USD strengthened against major currencies. The demand for it remains high. The Bank of Canada's meeting is in the spotlight today.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.23
USD is being traded without trends. Demand for the commodity currencies remains. Today, expect the US real estate report and open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.22
The majors are consolidating. The trading volume is lowered due to the Easter holidays. The investors are evaluating the real estate market in the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.19
The demand for USD growth after positive releases. GBP has stabilised next to 1.30 USD. Today the trading activity will be lowered due to holidays.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.18
The trading activity and volatility on the major currencies have lowered before the holidays. Investors are waiting for important economic releases.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.17
The major currencies are showing a variety of trends. The EUR is weak after the comments from the ECB officials. The Brexit remains ambiguous.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.16
Currency majors are being traded steadily. Donald Trump criticized the Fed's policy again, which puts additional pressure on the US dollar. Investors expect important economic releases. We recommend opening positions from key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.15
The majors are consolidating as the traders await additional drivers. The demand for risky assets is high. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.12
The demand for USD has grown after optimistic economic releases. The ambiguousness around Brexit remains. USD/JPY set new monthly maximums.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.11
Investors are evaluating the ECB meeting and FOMC Minutes. The majors are consolidating. Brexit has been posptoned. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.10
The major currecies are consolidating. The investors are waiting for the ECB meeting, the EU summit and the FOMC minutes.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.09
USD shows a negative trend against the competition. Brexit and the US\China trading negotiations remain in the spotlight. The oil market is bullish which supports currencies based on raw resources. Open the positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.08
The major currencies are consolidating. The technical picture is ambiguous. The investors are evaluating the US reports for March. The political events remain in the spotlight. Open the positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.05
The investors are waiting for the US Labour Market report. USD is supported by the productive US/China negotiations. Brexit remains in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.04
USD is weakened against the world currencies due to weak economic releases. The demand on the risky assets fell. The investors are watching Brexit.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.03
USD started to descend against other currencies. The US/China negotiations are in the spotlight. The demand on GBP has grown. Expect important economic releases.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.02
The USD index is testing the local maximums. The demand for USD fell after ambiguous economic releases. The investors expect more news about Brexit.
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The Forecast  – 2019.04.01
The USD index holds the local maximums. The majors are consolidating. The financial market participants are waiting for important economic releases.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.29
The demand for USD remains despite the weak economic reports. The major currencies are consolidating. The Brexit situation remains in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.28
The USD updated the weekly maximums. GBP remains under pressure due to Brexit ambiguousness. Investors are waiting for important economic releases.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.27
USD strengthened against the major currency. The Brexit situation remains in the spotlight. The newsfeed is calm today.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.26
The major currencies have stabilized. Brexit remains in the spotlight. Keep an eye on the economic releases and the US Treasury bonds` yield.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.25
The major currencies are showing an ambiguous dynamic. The demand for the safe assets grows. The financial market participants are watching Brexit.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.22
The USD index started to grow and can recover further. GBP is under pressure due to Brexit. You should expect important economic releases today.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.21
USD fell due to Federal Reserve`s statements and can fall further. GBP under pressure due to Brexit. The demand for JPY grew rapidly.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.20
The major currencies are consolidating. Federal Reserve meeting is in the spotlight. Keep an eye on the new FOMC forecasts and open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.19
The USD index holds the two-week minimums before the Federal Reserve meeting. The Brexit conundrum remains in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.18
USD was weakened on Friday. This week the investors will be watching Brexit and Central Bank meetings. Prices on oil retreated from local maximums.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.15
The UK voted to postpone Brexit. The USD stregthened despite weak economic reports. Japan kept the key interest rate. Price on oil are growing.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.14
The USD index updated the local minimums due to weak economic releases. The demand for GBP has grown after the Brexit vote in the UK Parliament.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.13
The UK refused the new Brexit agreement. GBP remains under pressure, volatility reached maximums since June 2016. The USD updated the local minimums.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.12
USD is testing the local minimums. Investors are watching the Brexit vote and the US inflation report. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.11
USD retreated from extremums after the ambiguous US Labour Market report. Correction prospects remain. The investors await the US retail sales report.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.07
USD holds the local maximums. The major currencies are consolidating before the CBE meeting. CAD is falling after the the Bank of Canada's comments.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.06
USD strengthened against the world currencies with further growth prospects. The traders are waiting for the Bank of Canada decision on interest rate.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.05
The USD closed in the green. The demand for USD is high. Reports from the UK, US, and Canada are in the spotlight. Open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.04
USD shows a positive trend. The demand for the american currency is high. Brexit and the US/China negotiations are in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.03.01
The USD index is showing a positive trend. The yen is weakened against the USD. The market participants are waiting for economic reports. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.28
The major currencies are consolidating. The investors are evaluating the news feed. Preliminary GBP report from the US is in the spotlight. You should open positions from the key support and resistance levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.27
USD keeps losing positions against other majors. The investors are evalulating Jerome Powell's statements. We expect reports from US and Canada.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.26
Demand for risky assets grows. Falling oil futures pressure on the CAD. Check out statements by the Head of Federal Reserve and reports from the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.25
The major currencies are consolidating. The investors are waiting for addtional drivers. USD/CAD quotes are showing a negative trend.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.22
The majors are moving in a flat. The market participants are waiting for new drivers. The reports from the US, Canada and EU are in the spotlight.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.21
The majors are consolidating. The investors are evaluating the FOMC Minutes. We are waiting for reports from the US and the EU.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.20
USD weakened against the majors. The investors are waiting for the FOMC Minutes. GBP updated the key maximums. JPY remains under pressure.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.19
Major currencies are consolidating. The investors are waiting for reports from the UK and Germany. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.18
The USD index retreated from local maximums. The majors are consolidating. The investors are waiting for additional drivers. You should open positions from the key levels.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.15
The majors are consolidating. The demand for JPY is growing. Keep an eye on the US/China negotiations, and check out reports from the UK and the US.
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The Forecast  – 2019.02.14
USD retains its positive trend. The investors are waiting for reports from the EU and the US, as well as new intel regarding the US/China trading conflict.
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