Week's main events (May 08 – May 12)

This week will be less economically eventful than the previous one. The main event will be the CPI data (inflation rate) in the United States. This data will be closely watched as investors assess whether the Federal Reserve will be able to hold off on raising rates next month. If inflation shows signs of resiliency or growth, the stock market could react negatively as the Fed could continue raising rates in June. The Bank of England will hold its monetary policy meeting on Thursday. The BoE is expected to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points, continuing its fight against inflation. Also, on Thursday, China will release inflation data showing how the economy feels during the recovery from the pandemic. The focus of investors should also be on the speeches of the Fed and the ECB officials.

Monday, May 08
On Monday, investors should be attentive to the Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes from the Bank of Japan. No surprises are expected, the Bank of Japan sticks to an ultra-soft policy, but volatility on currency pairs with the Japanese yen will increase. It's a bank holiday in the United Kingdom and France.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 02:50 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan Services PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 09
On Tuesday, traders should focus on the trade balance data from China, which strongly impacts Asian indices. Traders should also be focused on the speeches from the US FOMC officials.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Trade Balance (m/m) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 19:05 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 10
The inflation data from the United States will be the main event on Wednesday. Economists forecast an annual US inflation rate will remain the same at 5% y/y. But if the data is worse than expected, it could scare investors because the US Federal Reserve may continue to raise rates in June. Traders should also pay attention to the crude oil reserves data, which significantly impacts oil prices. The oil market is very volatile right now.
Main events of the day:
  • – Canada Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland SNB Chairman Jordan speaks at 19:00 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 11
On Thursday, the Bank of England will hold a meeting on monetary policy. The BoE is expected to raise rates by 0.25%. Inflation in the UK is 10.1%, which is noticeably higher than in the Eurozone and the United States. It will be important to keep an eye on the central bank's updated GDP growth and inflation projections. Investors should also not miss China's inflation data, which strongly impacts Asian indices.
Main events of the day:
  • – China Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – China Producer Price Index (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BOE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BOE Monetary Policy Report at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Waller Speaks at 17:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 12
The main event to watch on Friday is the UK GDP data for the last month. Analysts expect the economy to show no growth. At the same time, the level of Industrial and Manufacturing production is expected to remain flat. Also, on Friday, France and Spain will publish inflation data for April, giving some clues about inflation in the Eurozone and the ECB's next steps. And in New Zealand, the inflation expectations for the next quarter will be released, which should also be on the list.
Main events of the day:
  • – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (q/q) at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK GDP (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2023.05.08

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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