Week's main events (March 13 – March 17)

On Friday, startup-focused lender SVB Financial Group became the largest bank to collapse since the 2008 financial crisis. The decline in SVB stock, which began Thursday, has spread to other US and European banks. This caused panic among investors, which could intensify if people start withdrawing their deposits from banks on Monday, fearing a 2008 scenario. Therefore, this week the main investors' attention will be focused on how the situation in the banking sector will develop further. Also, this week, important inflation data will be released in the United States and Europe. The main focus will be on the core CPI data. The UK and Australia will publish their labor market reports, which may affect central banks' monetary policy. On Thursday, the ECB will hold its monetary policy meeting, at which a 0.5% rate hike is expected.

Monday, March 13
On Monday, the main event will be an emergency meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee concerning the situation with Silicon Valley Bank and the US banking system. There may be unpopular decisions. The Fed may suspend rate hikes due to the deteriorating situation in the banking sector.
Main events of the day:
  • – Indian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Fed emergency closed-door meeting at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, March 14
Various statistics for many countries are expected on Tuesday. The most important event will be the US consumer inflation data. Analysts forecast that annual inflation will fall from 6.4% to 6.0%, but the focus will be on core inflation. Traders should also pay attention to the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom. This indicator is taken into account by the Bank of England to regulate monetary policy.
Main events of the day:
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 23:20 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, March 15
On Wednesday, essential macro statistics on China will be released, affecting Asian indices. The Bank of Japan will publish last month's monetary policy meeting minutes. There will be no surprises, but volatility in currency pairs with the yen might rise as the report is released. Investors should also keep a close eye on US factory inflation data (PPI), which is considered a leading indicator of consumer inflation. Britain will publish its annual budget, which might give some hints about the economic forecasts for 2023.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Annual Budget Release at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Thursday, March 16
Thursday's main event will be the interest rate decision from the European Central Bank. Analysts are predicting a 0.5% rate hike, but the most important will be the press conference, where investors will look for clues regarding the ECB's next steps. Traders should also pay attention to the Australian labor market data. The RBA is on its way to raising rates, but weak labor market data could affect further RBA decisions.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Trade Balance (m/m) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Italian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, March 17
Friday's most important release for investors will be the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. The focus will be on core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices. ECB policymakers have repeatedly said to moderate their hawkishness if core inflation begins to decline. Traders will also keep a close eye on consumer sentiment data. This report is a good indicator of how consumers feel about the current economic situation.
Main events of the day:
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Michigan Consumer Sentiment (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2023.03.13

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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