Week's main events (February 13– February 17)

Investors and traders will be watching closely this week for new inflation data in the United States and the United Kingdom. Inflationary pressures are expected to decline further in the United States, which may increase the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will not be categorical in raising rates further. In the UK, consumer prices are also expected to decline, but inflation is still projected to be above 10%. Also, this week, the Japanese government is about to appoint a new Central Bank Governor. Why is this important? The hawkish candidate is likely to change monetary policy in a tightening direction, leading to a sharp strengthening of the Japanese currency. Conversely, if the Bank of Japan, which is Kuroda's current Governor, is chosen to be a soft-policy supporter, the Japanese yen could fall substantially against the dollar.

Monday, February 13
On Mondays, traders should pay attention to inflation data in Switzerland and India. In both cases, a slight increase in inflation is projected. Volatility in currency pairs with a Swiss franc and on the Nifty 50 Index will increase. Investors should also pay attention to FOMC member Bowman's speech.
Main events of the day:
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Indian Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 15:00 (GMT+2).
Tuesday, February 14
Various statistics for many countries are expected on Tuesday. The main event will be inflation data in the United States, where it is expected to see a further decrease in price pressure. Investors should also be attentive to Japan and the Eurozone GDP data. UK labor market data will also shed light on whether the Bank of Japan has space to raise rates further.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (m/m) at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan GDP (q/q) at 01:50 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand Inflation Expectations (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone GDP (q/q) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 21:05 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, February 15
The main event on Wednesday will be the Consumer Price Index in the United Kingdom. The Bank of England noted that the February rate increase of 50 basis points may have been the last in its current tightening cycle, but it is expected that the January inflation report will still show double digits. Investors should also focus on the speeches of the heads of Europe and Australian central banks. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will testify on the bank's annual report to the European Parliament in Strasbourg.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 02:15 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Spanish Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 10:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Manufacturing Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 16:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2).
Thursday, February 16
Thursday's main events will be the labor market data in the United States and Australia. Also, traders should not miss speeches of FOMC members, especially Bullard's performance, who is a supporter of aggressive monetary policy.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 15:45 (GMT+2)
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bullard Speaks at 20:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Cook Speaks at 23:00 (GMT+2).
Friday, February 17
On Friday, traders should focus on producer inflation data in Germany and Canada. This data is considered a preliminary indicator of consumer inflation. In other words, if inflation between factories is declining, traders should probably expect consumer inflation to fall as well. Also, on Friday, there will be speeches by some FOMC representatives who can provide hints about further actions by the US Federal Reserve, especially after inflation data.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 00:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Mester Speaks at 01:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German Producer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Switzerland Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:30 (GMT+2);
  • – French Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:45 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Producer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Barkin Speaks at 15:30 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2023.02.13

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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