Week's main events (July 18 – July 22)

This week investors' attention should be focused on the ECB Interest Rate Decision as well as inflation data in leading countries. Rising inflation is always a reason for the central bank to tighten monetary policy, so high inflation is very often accompanied by an increase in the national currency. The European Central Bank is meeting on Thursday and the bank is expected to raise rates for the first time in a decade. The earning season is gaining momentum in the United States and Europe. Several blue chips are due to report this week. Traders should also keep a close eye on the oil market. According to preliminary information, US President Joe Biden has agreed with the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohamed Bin Salman to pump more oil, so oil prices could be very volatile this week.

Monday, July 18
On Monday traders should pay attention to inflation data in New Zealand for the quarter. Analysts expect CPI to rise another 1.5%. Volatility in currency pairs with the New Zealand dollar will increase sharply. It’s a bank holiday in Japan.
Main events of the day:
  • - New Zealand Consumer Price Index (q/q) at 01:45 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, July 19
The Reserve Bank of Australia will update its monetary policy statement. Australia is on its way to tighten monetary policy amid rising global inflation, so it is important to keep an eye on this data. Traders' attention should also be focused on the Eurozone Consumer Price Index. Analysts expect that in annual terms, inflation in the Eurozone will remain at the same level, but as the CPI data showed last week, inflation in European countries is not slowing down. Therefore, if Eurozone data is worse than expected, the ECB may decide on Thursday to raise the rate by 0.50%.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Gov Bailey Speaks at 20:45 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, July 20
The main event on Wednesday will be the Consumer Price Index in Canada and the United Kingdom. Analysts predict that the inflation in Canada will rise by 1.4%, while the UK is expected to see a 0.2% rise. It is also worth keeping a close eye on the news about Crude Oil Reserves.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Governor Lowe Speaks at 02:10 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, July 21
The ECB will hold an Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, where the rate is expected to rise by 0.25% for the first time in a decade. Although there is a slight possibility of a 0.5% rate hike if Tuesday's inflation data is very high. Also on this day, there will be Japan's Central Bank meeting. But analysts do not expect any changes here.
Main events of the day:
  • – BoJ Outlook Report at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – BoJ Press Conference at 06:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Monetary Policy Statement at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Interest Rate Decision at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone ECB Press Conference at 15:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, July 22
Various statistics for many countries are expected on Friday. The most important release for investors will be the inflation rate data in Japan. Analysts expect a slight increase in consumer inflation. The volatility of the currency pairs with the Japanese yen will increase. Investors should also pay attention to PMI data for the manufacturing and services sectors in various countries. The closer the data to the 50 bps level, the closer the recession is.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 02:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone France Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone France Services PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3);
  • – US Services PMI (m/m) at 16:45 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2022.07.18

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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