Week's main events (May 02 – May 06)

This week promises to be volatile due to several important events. The US Nonfarm Payrolls is the week's main event, as it is one of the most important parameters for the Fed's monetary policy decision. Economists believe the US employment report in April remains robust. Traders should pay special attention to the interest rate decisions of the Bank of England and the Reserve Bank of Australia. Analysts expect to see higher interest rates in both. As a rule, rising interest rates are accompanied by the strengthening of the national currency and the stock market's weakness. Investors should also keep an eye on the monthly OPEC+ meeting, which will strongly impact oil pricing. Traders should also not forget about the US earning season. Investors still believe that the reporting season will keep the US market from falling. Companies such as Pfizer, AMD, Starbucks, Airbnb, Booking, Uber, Moderna, Alibaba, and others will report this week.

Monday, May 2
On Monday, traders will mainly focus on the manufacturing PMI data from different countries. It’s a bank holiday in China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United Kingdom.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 03:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Retail Sales (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Spanish Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Italian Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:45 (GMT+3);
  • – French Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:50 (GMT+3);
  • – German Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 16:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Tuesday, May 3
The main event of Tuesday will be the decision of Australia's central bank on the interest rate. It is expected to grow by 0.25%. The volatility of currency pairs with the Australian dollar will increase. Traders should also pay attention to the Unemployment Rate in Eurozone. Reducing unemployment along with high inflation are prerequisites for tightening the ECB's monetary policy. It's a bank holiday in China, Singapore, and Japan.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia RBA Rate Statement (m/m) at 07:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Manufacturing PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Producer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US JOLTs Job Openings (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).
Wednesday, May 4
Wednesday will bring various statistics for many countries. The Fed Interest Rate Decision will be the most important event on Wednesday. Analysts expect policymakers to raise interest rates by 0.5%. It is also very important to analyze the FOMC statement. If the Fed continues to expect high inflation and does not see a slowdown in the future, it will signal a decline in the stock market and further growth of the dollar index. The US Crude Oil Reserves data, which have a strong impact on oil prices, should also be in focus. It’s a bank holiday in China and Japan.
Main events of the day:
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Financial Stability Report at 00:00 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand Unemployment Rate at 01:45 (GMT+3);
  • – New Zealand RBNZ Press Conference at 02:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Australia Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – German Services PMI (m/m) at 10:55 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Services PMI (m/m) at 11:00 (GMT+3);
  • – Eurozone Retail Sales (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+3);
  • – US ISM Services PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Statement at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 21:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 21:30 (GMT+3).
Thursday, May 5
On Thursday, traders will mainly focus on the Interest Rate Decisions from the Bank of England. According to preliminary data, the BoE will raise rates by another 0.25% to curb inflation, which reached its highest level in thirty years. A quarter-point hike to 1% would meet a condition for the Bank of England to start actively selling bonds. Active bond sales will tighten monetary conditions but could hurt the economy. Investors should also keep an eye on the OPEC+ meeting. Currently, the oil market is very uncertain Surprises are possible. The volatility on WTI and BRENT could rise sharply. It’s a bank holiday in Japan and South Korea.
Main events of the day:
  • – China Services PMI (m/m) at 04:45 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Consumer Price Index at 09:30 (m/m) (GMT+3);
  • – UK Services PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – OPEC+ Meeting at 12:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Inflation Report (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK BoE Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 14:00 (GMT+3);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 17:30 (GMT+3).
Friday, May 6
The most important Friday release is Nonfarm Payrolls. These data can trigger increased volatility in the market, and this indicator is also taken into account by the Fed to adjust monetary policy. Signs of continued strength in the labor market could add to bets on how aggressive the Fed can be in tightening monetary policy to combat high inflation. Traders should also closely monitor the Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement. It’s a bank holiday in Japan and South Korea.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Monetary Policy Statement (m/m) at 04:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Switzerland Unemployment Rate at 08:45 (GMT+3);
  • – German Industrial Production (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+3);
  • – UK Construction PMI (m/m) at 11:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Nonfarm Payrolls (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 15:30 (GMT+3);
  • – US FOMC Member Williams Speaks at 16:15 (GMT+3);
  • – Canada Ivey PMI (m/m) at 17:00 (GMT+3).

by JustMarkets, 2022.05.02

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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