Week's main events (March 14 – March 18)

Last week, US consumer inflation increased to 7.9% in annual terms, the highest level since 1982. The Fed has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates by a quarter-point to combat rising inflation. No more rate hikes of more than half a percentage point are expected as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has sent commodity prices soaring and caused significant uncertainty in financial markets. This week, investors' attention should be focused on the FOMC meeting, inflation data in the Eurozone, Canada, and Japan, as well as monetary policy reports from the central banks of England, Australia, and Japan. The Bank of England is expected to raise rates again by a quarter-point. Investors will also focus on reports from the International Energy Administration and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. The war and sanctions against Russia have pushed oil prices to a 14-year high, and natural gas prices are close to record highs.

Monday, March 14
No important economic events are expected on Monday, so the main focus of investors will be on geopolitics.
Tuesday, March 15
Various statistics for many countries are expected on Tuesday. The Reserve Bank of Australia will update its monetary policy statement. There may be hints of monetary policy tightening in this report, so it is important to watch for changes. Traders should also pay attention to the unemployment rate in the United Kingdom. This indicator is taken into account by the Bank of England to regulate monetary policy. Also, an important event will be the rate of producer inflation in the United States. Analysts expect producer inflation to rise by 1%.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia RBA Meeting Minutes (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – China Retail Sales (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Industrial Production (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – China Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 04:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Average Earnings Index (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Claimant Count Change (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 09:00 (GMT+2);
  • – German ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Industrial Production (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Producer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2).
Wednesday, March 16
Wednesday's main event will be the Fed Interest Rate Decision and the Consumer Price Index in Canada. Analysts expect the Fed to raise rates by 0.25% but will keep a close eye on Jerome Powell's speech at the conference, as the war in Ukraine could change Fed members' minds towards more aggressive monetary policy tightening. Another increase in consumer inflation is expected in Canada. An increase in the consumer price index tends to cause the national currency to rise in anticipation that the central bank will tighten monetary policy.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan Industrial Production (m/m) at 06:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Crude Oil Reserves (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Meeting Minutes at 20:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Fed Interest Rate Decision at 20:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Press Conference at 20:30 (GMT+2);
  • – New Zealand GDP (q/q) at 23:45 (GMT+2).
Thursday, March 17
Thursday's main event will be the interest rate decision from the Bank of England. Analysts expect the Bank of England to continue raising interest rates by 0.25% as the UK consumer price index is at its highest level in 30 years. As with the Fed, investors will be watching the bank's assessment of how the war in Ukraine affects interest rate prospects. As for inflation in the Eurozone, analysts expect consumer prices in Europe to remain unchanged. But it is worth keeping a close eye on the speech of ECB head Christine Lagarde.
Main events of the day:
  • – Australia Unemployment Rate (m/m) at 02:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone ECB President Lagarde Speaks at 11:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Eurozone Consumer Price Index (m/m) at 12:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Interest Rate Decision at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – UK BoE Monetary Policy Summary at 14:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US Building Permits (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Initial Jobless Claims (w/w) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Industrial Production (m/m) at 15:15 (GMT+2);
  • – US Natural Gas Storage (w/w) at 16:30 (GMT+2).
Friday, March 18
Friday's most important release for investors will be Japan's inflation rate data and the Monetary Policy Statement from the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan is not expected to announce any changes in monetary policy as inflation is still lagging far behind the rest of the world. But the volatility on currency pairs with the Japanese yen will increase. Traders will also look for clues in the Fed officials' speeches on further monetary policy plans.
Main events of the day:
  • – Japan National Core Consumer Price Index at 01:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Interest Rate Decision at 04:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Statement at 05:00 (GMT+2);
  • – Japan BoJ Press Conference at 08:30 (GMT+2);
  • – Canada Retail Sales (m/m) at 14:30 (GMT+2);
  • – US Existing Home Sales (m/m) at 16:00 (GMT+2);
  • – US FOMC Member Bowman Speaks at 21:00 (GMT+2).

by JustMarkets, 2022.03.14

We advise you to get acquainted with the daily forecasts for the major currency pairs.

This article reflects a personal opinion and should not be interpreted as an investment advice, and/or offer, and/or a persistent request for carrying out financial transactions, and/or a guarantee, and/or a forecast of future events.

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